Tag Archives: World Economics Form

Oct 18 2021

Stagflation is Here


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Oct 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: When do we talk about stagflation?

F

ANSWER: We are already experiencing it. Normally, the standard definition of “stagflation” has been explained as slow economic growth with relatively high unemployment/or economic stagnation that takes place with rising prices. Some have also defined it as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).

Stagflation became a term that defined the 1970s because economic growth was still positive, but the rate of inflation was far greater due to the price shock of the OPEC embargo. Because of the Democrats constantly pushing to raise taxes, they sent corporations fleeing offshore, and it was NOT merely because of the tax rate. I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation and they wanted to know why NO American company got a contract from China like constructing the Yellow River Dam. I explained that German companies were NOT taxed on worldwide income, and as such, they were already 40% less than an American company because Americans pay taxes on worldwide income, and the ONLY other country to that was Japan. Thus, American companies moved offshore, NOT because labor was cheaper, but so they could complete.

As a result, I provided our analysis that showed when we allocated trade according to the flag of the company instead of where something was manufactured, then the US had a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit. Trump understood that and offered a one-time tax deal to bring their profits home. The Democrats screamed because they wanted 40% in taxes. But they would not bring the money home and so they got 0%.

Currently, as we move into 2024, this entire COVID scam has seriously disrupted the supply chain. Companies shifted to Just-In-Time inventory systems to save on financing an inventory. But then COVID lockdowns came and this resulted in chronic shortages.

So your answer is we are already in a STAGFLATION mode because inflation will surpass economic growth. With the dramatic tax increases the Democrats want to shove down the economy’s throat, all we will see is a decline in economic growth with rising prices thanks to chronic shortages. So we get the worst of two worlds.

The Democrats are deliberately pushing the World Economic Forum agenda and are actively trying to confiscate wealth while simultaneously crushing the economy to Build Back Better. Just like George Bush Jr took the blame for the Iraq war, which was all Cheney, Biden will go down in history as the patsy for this foreign infiltration of the United States to change our economy into a Marxist wonderland.

Oct 15 2021

Lies, Lies & More Lies from the Financial Press


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Oct 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; the Fed quietly published the banks it was funding in the Repo Crisis. I just wanted to say, you are always right. The press claimed it was tax time, but you said it was the crisis in European banks. Your sources are always spot on. Thanks for the light of truth.

PG

REPLY: Yes, that story that the liquidity crisis occurred because US corporations withdrew large amounts from the banks in order to make quarterly tax payments was the most absurd propaganda I ever heard. Why then do we not see the same liquidity crisis event during tax season?

The bulk of the loans covered foreign banks, as well as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Securities. It was all driven by the simple fact that Merkel said there would be no bailout for Deutsche Bank, which was the major derivatives counterparty problem involving Wall Street. Deutsche Bank had a major derivatives book, and if it failed, it would have taken down US banks. Deutsche Bank was in crisis and then it was too big to merge with Commerzbank. They had to lay off nearly 20,000 staff and a major effort was undertake to try to isolate its toxic assets.

That is why the Fed had to step in as the market maker to bail out Europe for US banks all backed off. I really do not know who makes up these stories to try to hide the truth. But they always do in hopes of preventing panics. This time, the game is up.

Oct 13 2021

Inflation is Hitting Every Sector – Not Transitory


Armstrong Economics Blog/Hyperinflation Re-Posted Oct 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: All these increased demands for my product is great, but it comes with quite a wholesale flower prices have also increased significantly making the cost of the arrangements much higher. Wholesale rose prices have jumped 56%. Last year I could buy a pack of 25 roses for $18, where today they cost $28. I have to pass these costs onto my customers, but even with the increased cost people are still buying more flowers this year than the same time last year.

SH

REPLY: Thank you for this info. It is hard to find any industry that is not suffering from a shortage of supply.

Oct 9 2021

September Jobs Report Badly Misses Expectations With 194,000 Jobs Created vs 500,000 Expected


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 8, 2021 | Sundance | 235 Comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the September jobs report [DATA HERE] showing a dismal 194,000 jobs added against a financial media and Wall Street expectation of 500,000 jobs.  [CNBC Apoplectic]   The labor participation rate in the worker economy overall has not moved since Biden’s inauguration, and stands at 61.6%.

Digging into the numbers, what is happening is exactly what we ¹should expect.  Outside the immediacy of private sector durable goods retailers seeing a pull back in consumer purchasing due to inflation (which we continue to point out is the critical issue); the local economies impacted by a declining tax base are key early indicators of contracting economic activity.  Wage gains are not keeping up with inflation.

Inside the data, you will note [Table B-1] a significant decline in Local Government Education of -144,000 jobs.  Obviously the collapse of in-school teaching leads to less jobs in this sector overall. However, the drop happened at the exact same time students were returning to a new school year, and this drop is also reflected year-over-year.  Schools were impacted by COVID in Sept 2020 more than schools are impacted by COVID in Sept 2021, yet this year the jobs are completely gone.  Something bigger is happening in this sector.

Additionally, healthcare services show a major drop in employment (-37k) specifically as it relates to elderly care and nursing homes.   All the sub-sectors of elder care are significantly lower in employment.

Retail was essentially flat (+56k) considering the scale of the sector; and durable goods within the retail sector show declines in employment.  Again this would indicate less consumer spending on durable goods, as food and energy inflation are prioritizing spending habits.  Leisure and Hospitality (+74k) with hotels and restaurants doing the majority of the hiring as the rebound in this sector continues.

[¹Here it is important to note a slow cascade effect that will take time and we are not near the peak of the trouble yet. As a historic reminder, the epicenter of the peak financial crisis (housing) was triggered in Nov/December 2005.  However, the trouble was not visible on a national scale until 2007.    Economic data shows the current triggering event took place in May/June of this year.  Make of that what you will]

(CNBC) […] The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower-than-expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign about the state of the economy though the total was held back substantially by a sharp drop in government employment.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, better than the expectation for 5.1% and the lowest since February 2020.

[…] “This is quite a deflating report,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at job placement site Indeed. “This year has been one of false dawns for the labor market. Demand for workers is strong and millions of people want to return to work, but employment growth has yet to find its footing.” (read more)

[INFLATION] is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means housing prices drop because people cannot afford higher mortgage payments.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

Sep 14 2021

Democrats Go Insane on Taxes NYC 61.5% is Your Tax Rate!


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Sep 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Democrats are simply insane. Every study on taxation has shown that the lower the tax rates, the greater the economic growth. The Reagan tax cuts resulted in people paying more in taxes because they earned more. The new tax hiked will push NYC to 61.5%. Anyone who lives there has got to be insane to stay. The Super-Rich set up trusts, foundations, and every sort of vehicle that skirts the high taxes. The Democrats always allow those because they themselves use the same tricks. Obama had little when he entered the office and now has a multimillion beach house when he was claiming the oceans were rising.

The one thing everybody better do is call your accountant. The Democrats CANNOT be this stupid. Raising taxes of this magnitude, going after businesses, and trying to end inheritance which is what they REALLY want to do – make it all now normal income, can set in motion the worse liquidation in modern history.

This is AOC wearing a dress to celebrate the occasion of trying to destroy society. She fails to understand that it takes money to start a business and to hire people. Under their plans from reliable sources, they really want to tear the country apart. They see nothing but hatred in capitalism for everything to them is just money. If you love what you do, you will be successful in life. If it’s just a job, then that is all it will ever be.

Twenty years ago if you bought a house you could just put your kid’s names on it as well – no big deal. Today, if you try that, they have to declare it as income and pay taxes on it which is not even cash. This is the new world order. You may have to sell assets this year and buy them back for selling next year of an accumulated profit may be devastating.

Aug 21 2021

All Major Cities in France Erupt with Protests


Armstrong Economics Blog/France Re-Posted Aug 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Aug 13 2021

Producer Price Index Records Highest Inflation Rate in History Since Tracking Began


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 12, 2021 | Sundance | 103 Comments

The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released stunning price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 7.8% price increase in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  The future finished goods at a retail level will carry the current wholesale price increase.  Stuff costs a lot now… and stuff is about to cost even more pretty soon.

Food products are fast-turn consumable goods, and the inflation in the food sector is jaw-dropping already.  However, fresh and processed foods turn at different inventory levels.

Obviously fresh foods spoil fastest (think produce, fish, meats and dairy) so they are replenished more quickly and the thin supply chain (field to fork) passes along increased costs fast. Processed foods have a longer shelf life (boxed, canned, frozen, etc), and as a consequence have a much larger inventory level in manufacturing, warehousing and retail storerooms/shelves.  Within processed foods, there is a lag between cost increase at origination and that cost hitting the stores.

The problem identified within the current ‘producer price index’ is that price increases in the raw material and intermediate material are building into the supply chain.  Keep in mind the entire supply chain is dependent on energy costs and the fuel prices that impact transportation.

The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality.  There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products (2020 data).  The previously processed food price increases are currently reflected on store shelves (already hurting).  However, the coming processed food price increases will be much, much higher.  We will see even higher prices on processed foods in the supermarket.

The same price increases will happen for restaurants, perhaps faster, as they follow the similar supply chain to fresh foods.

BigAg has likely already made deals with their congressional sales-force for increases in government welfare payments (EBT and Foodstamps, WIC etc.).  BigAg lobbies congress for higher reimbursement rates so they can raise the prices of food and export domestic product to other nations.  Food assistance payments increase, and BigAg benefits.  In essence, BigAg takes the fed food subsidies and fattens their profit margin.  Then, they payback the politicians.  It’s a circle of money.

Aug 11 2021

UK v US Healthcare


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Aug 11, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Martin
I recently heard in the area that I live that a nurse confirmed that a lot of the doctors in hospitals did not treat patients in the hospital and told the nurses to put it down as Covid! People having heart attacks, strokes are all put down as Covid. In Scotland and probably the UK the NHS is finished. You cannot see a doctor due to Covid, you can’t go to a hospital due to Covid basically you can’t do anything due to that pesky Covid.

I believe that it will come to the American system where you must have insurance in order to be treated. I think that has been one of their plans for a very long time. Privatisation by the back door.
all the best
m (Scotland)

REPLY: I can say this, my dog got sick so I took her to Blue Pearl veterinarian hospital. I was not allowed inside. They came out and took my dog. I said I wanted to be able to talk to the doctor. They said I will. I had to sit in the car. The doctor called me on the cell phone. They texted me the bill that I had to pay from my cell phone before they would bring out my dog. I became angry and asked what the hell was wrong with them? I can walk into a human doctor’s office. Get my eyes checked or have my hair cut. I will never EVER go back there again.

In the US, they are paid by private insurance. There in the UK and Scotland, they are government employees. They have no incentive to actually work for they are paid by doing the government’s bid. In the USA, they will not be paid unless they see you.

Perhaps it will always come down to who pays who for what.

Aug 10 2021

Papers Please, Today French Police Begin Demanding COVID Vaccination ID For Citizens Outside


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2021 | Sundance | 204 Comments

Today was the deadline for citizens of France to carry their vaccination ID if they want to participate in society.   Citizens of France are required to carry their identification if they want to eat a restaurants, go to shopping malls or attend venues where crowds would gather.  [MSM CITATION HERE] Videos of the French police conducting random checks and checkpoints are surfacing.  WATCH:

https://youtu.be/jOEf2NGYsTE

As we noted last month when this was announced, France is the beta-test.  The U.S. State Department and French government have a long history of cooperation and testing for political and social change.

This will be coming soon to New York City (previously announced), and from there to towns and local communities across the United States.

.

JULY 13, 2021 – “I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that French officials and U.S. officials are closely discussing this approach in closed-door meetings.  France is being used as a test ground in a similar way the Rivkin Project was deployed.

Despite the wide social differences, at their core French nationalists are close in ideological alignment to Americans.  France is one of the few states left in Western Europe with the remnant of a national consciousness.” (link)

Aug 5 2021

Mainstream Starting to Apologize for Propaganda


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Aug 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Julian Reichelt, the editor-in-chief of BILD, which is one of the largest newspapers in Germany, has reversed policy and apologized to the children of Germany for the COVID-19 coverage in his newspaper that made them “victims of neglect, isolation, and loneliness.” He has plainly stated that this has been a scam, unproven scientifically, and anyone who criticized the claims was never invited to the table to discuss what is taking place. Hex expressly states:

“It is up to us to protect you.”

This is the moral hazard that the mainstream press has presented. CNN, in the old days, would see its journalists dragged out and hanged during such periods as the Communist Revolution. They present a clear and present danger to our future along with all the mainstream press that has been going along with the propaganda to usher in the end of democracy.