Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 12 2025

Is Bitcoin A Store of Value?


Posted originally on Oct 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Bitcon M Tech 10 9 25

QUESTION: How can you say that Bitcoin is not a store of wealth? Nobody agrees with you.

DF

Copper M 10 9 25

ANSWER: Bitcoin is no more a store of wealth than copper or anything else. I have said from the outset that it is a trading vehicle. It will rise and fall like everything else. A store of wealth is one where, if you put $1,000 into it, you can get $1,000 back. Everything rises and falls with the value of your house, as well as salaries and wages.

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All the hype that Bitcoin is the saviour of the world, will replace the dollar, and circumvent central banks, was all great sales propaganda. The government in criminal cases has confiscated crypto accounts. The U.S. Dept. of Justice (DOJ) filed a civil forfeiture complaint in the District of Columbia relating to over $225.3 million in cryptocurrency tied to fraud schemes and money laundering. There was over $2.8 million in crypto + other assets seized from a wallet in connection with ransomware operations (Zepplin ransomware) by the DOJ. There are cases and a growing legal practice around cryptocurrency accounts being seized, or at least compelled to be disclosed, in divorce proceedings. It’s complex, but courts are increasingly treating crypto like other financial assets when dividing property. Here’s a breakdown of how this works, the challenges, and what seizure/turnover looks like in practice.

Under U.S. law, if you carry more than $10,000 in “currency or other monetary instruments” into or out of the country, you must report it to U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP). The relevant form is the FinCEN Form 105 (Currency and Monetary Instruments Report). “Monetary instruments” are defined broadly to include items such as paper money, coins, traveler’s checks, bearer instruments, etc. Granted, U.S. law does not clearly define cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, etc.) as “currency or monetary instruments” in the same way. Some commentators argue that the $10,000 border‐reporting rule does not currently cover crypto because of this definitional ambiguity. However, U.S. regulators have proposed including crypto in border declarations, but as of now, no final rule has been enacted.

I had flown to Bermuda to buy some ancient coins in an auction. I paid by check, threw them in my briefcase, and you had to go through customs there in Bermuda. The agent opened my briefcase and saw the purchases I had made that had the prices on them, and said I didn’t declare them so that he could confiscate them. I argued that they were not listed in the guidelines, and under his definition, my clothes could be confiscated as well. He backed off, but every time for the next 30 years, when I returned to the United States, they looked at the screen, and the smile and friendly demeanor vanished. Then came the words, “Let me see the briefcase.”

You can argue that Bitcoin is not in the code for now. But if the agent wants to make a name for themselves, they will confiscate your account. You’ll go to court to argue for its return, and if you get an honest federal judge (good luck on that), maybe you’ll win.

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The European Union has been working on regulatory frameworks (for example, via the Travel Rule / Transfer of Funds Regulation (TFR)) that would require crypto‐asset service providers (CASPs) to share originator & beneficiary information when crypto is transferred across borders. But these rules apply to regulated crypto service providers, not necessarily individuals crossing a border carrying crypto in wallets. The requirement is more about the transmission of assets via institutions.

Capital Controls 2

However, as on MONDAY, travelers in and out of the EU must disclose all their accounts. I would bet that they will include crypto. I have been warning that as Europe moves closer to war with Russia (they assume Trump will be forced to defend the EU at American expense as always), they are pushing for iron-clad capital controls.  They are going for the cancellation of all physical cash, will then convert all accounts to their digital CBDC, and you will NOT be allowed to take money out of the EU. What starts this will is step one.

Bitcoin is no more a store of value than anything else because everything rises and falls.

Yet, promoting that propaganda has ensured it moves into a world where it,

too, becomes an asset subject to reporting and confiscation.

Oct 12 2025

We Need a Complete Overhaul of the Legal System


Posted originally on Oct 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

MAA Painting r

COMMENT: Marty, I hope your family enjoyed the painting I had made of you to thank you when I sold my business in California. Your long-term advice has guided my life since the days when you were regularly on the Buz Schwartz show in California. Your advice that 1999 would be the low in gold was excellent. I bought $1 million of gold at $275 back then, when they were illegally keeping you in contempt to silence you for the bankers after the Russian collapse. Buz was supporting on the air. It was obviously a lie to claim the bank had no idea where $1 billion was, when that kind of money can only be wired. That $1 million I invested on your advice is now $12 million. I bought going into the Benchmarks. You said gold would decline for 19 years, then rise to $5,000 by 2032. That was why you retired from the gold business back then. The NY boys wanted to silence you because you always told the truth. As Barclay said in the Forecaster Movie, Goldman Sachs admitted they thought they could crush you, but you usually won.

I am so happy that they are making films about your life. It has been an honor to have known you. You have done more to try to help society and have suffered the arrows for doing so.

If they make this film about you vs the deep state, it will be like The Big Short that exposed the corruption between the banks and credit agencies. I will be glad to invest in that venture. The world needs to wake up.

JK

1999 Gold Low

REPLY: Thank you. I knew about selling your company, and I thank you for the painting. I did not realize you also bought the gold near the low in 1999. My mother always told me there was a time and a place for everything. I never forgot that. I heard it all the time. I remember Buz. He was truly a great guy. He instantly saw through the government’s BS and how it was all about protecting the banks. If it wasn’t for the Japanese press coming to interview me, and I told them the bank stole the money, and if they did not come and sue the bank, they would never see a dime because the prosecutors were protecting the bank. The NY banks want people to buy at the high and sell at the low so they can make their pound of flesh.

Republic Pays 606 WSJ
AP 4 27 2000 Closed Court

That right comes from the Sixth Amendment, which states:

“In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial…”

When they were taking my lawyers away, the judge illegally closed the courtroom. The Associated Press was in the room and then told to get out. She went right up to the bench and said, “You cannot throw us out.” He ordered the Marshall to escort her out. She then wrote in a “closed” court, which violates the Constitution. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals did nothing. The Constitution means absolutely NOTHING in New York City, and it is far too dangerous to even have an account there.

MA Plea

If it were not for the support of my clients following my direction to sue the bank, they would have kept the money, probably handed some of it out to the Deep State, which might have taken place anyway because I had a $400 million profit due to the currency swing, where the dollar nearly doubled and they still handed that to the bank. They gave my notes to the bank to redeem because if the receiver did that, there was a $400 million profit they did not want to show. They even stole the pension funds of the employees, so much for the honesty of the DOJ in New York City. Then they put a gag order on me to prevent me from helping my own clients against the bank. It was even suggested that if they went to court, I could not testify for them.

HSBC Gag Cover
TR 2006 Must Read Script

Like a hostage held by terrorists, they do the same. You are handed a script that you must read. You are not allowed to speak in your own words. This is American justice in NYC. What a joke. There is absolutely nothing worth saving about the legal system in NYC – NOTHING!!!!!

The STATS for the SDNY show the tyranny.

Over 97–98% of defendants in federal cases plead guilty (primarily through plea bargains). You are threatened with double the time if you go to trial, or they threaten your family. They froze my mother’s account, even her social security funds, so she could not even get her medicine. They backed off only when my lawyers threatened to hold a press conference that they were deliberately trying to kill my mother to get me to plead.

Of the small fraction (about 2%) who go to trial, roughly 80–90% are convicted.

That produces an overall conviction rate around 99% once you include both guilty pleas and trial convictions.

No prosecutor will EVER admit a mistake. They fear they will never get a job if they have failures on their record. NEVER allow your child or grandchild EVER to marry a prosecutor. When the rule of law collapses, the country is not far behind. I have to warn client NEVER have any account in NYC for if you have to go to court against a bank – YOU LOSE 99% of the time!

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Oct 12 2025

Interview with Retirement Lifestyle Advocates


Posted originally on Oct 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

RetiredLifestylePodcast

Click here to listen to the interview.

Renowned forecaster Martin Armstrong joins Dennis Tubbergen to discuss his groundbreaking computer model that tracks global capital flows and has accurately predicted major economic events for decades. Armstrong explains why capital is fleeing Europe and heading to the United States, the real reasons behind BRICS development (hint: it’s not about gold backing), and why talk of “de-dollarization” misses the mark. He reveals how geopolitical tensions are driving market movements, why European debt poses systemic risks to the banking system, and the surprising connection between stablecoins and Civil War-era war bonds. Armstrong also shares his unique perspective on why the U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency and what makes it fundamentally different from other nations’ currencies. A must-listen for anyone seeking to understand where global capital is heading and what it means for markets, currencies, and the escalating geopolitical landscape.

Oct 11 2025

Interview with Retirement Lifestyle Advocates


Posted  originally on Oct 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

RetiredLifestylePodcast

Click here to listen to the interview.

Renowned forecaster Martin Armstrong joins Dennis Tubbergen to discuss his groundbreaking computer model that tracks global capital flows and has accurately predicted major economic events for decades. Armstrong explains why capital is fleeing Europe and heading to the United States, the real reasons behind BRICS development (hint: it’s not about gold backing), and why talk of “de-dollarization” misses the mark. He reveals how geopolitical tensions are driving market movements, why European debt poses systemic risks to the banking system, and the surprising connection between stablecoins and Civil War-era war bonds. Armstrong also shares his unique perspective on why the U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency and what makes it fundamentally different from other nations’ currencies. A must-listen for anyone seeking to understand where global capital is heading and what it means for markets, currencies, and the escalating geopolitical landscape.

Oct 10 2025

Trump’s Deportation Efforts


Posted originally on Oct 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

DeporationPlane

President Donald Trump inherited a nation that was invaded. The invaders were incentivized to stay and permitted to coast under the radar. His administration was forced to throw down the gauntlet and forcibly remove the people who were invited to stay by the Democrats. New data indicate that ICE has removed approximately 600,000 migrants since January, with over 2 million having left overall.

ICE warned that “this is just the beginning.”  Over 1.6 million people voluntarily self-deported. They heard the warnings loud and clear. DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin discussed how there were no consequences for invaders during the Biden Administration. Again, these people were INVITED to enter the nation by the Democrats. “Illegal aliens are hearing our message to leave now or face the consequences. Migrants are now even turning back before they reach our borders,” McLaughlin said.

FAIR, a conservative advocacy group, believes that the US government was paying $8,776 annually per illegal alien. The figure includes education ($78B), healthcare ($42.7B), and justice ($47B) among the costs to harbor non-citizens. That would place current savings at over $5.2 billion annually; however, migrants received different compensation packages depending on where they landed. The Heritage Foundation estimated the figure to be around $14,387 per household. No one ever determined how many migrants passed through the borders under Biden.

The latest ad campaign is urging migrants to leave willingly. Detention centers are avoidable. By now, anyone remaining in America illegally knows that they’re facing serious consequences for breaking US law.

In contrast, the Biden Administration deported 271,000 in 2024 and 142,000 in 2023. Far more people entered the nation and these deportations were merely to make it seem as if the government was working to address the problem.

The majority of Americans voted against open borders. Democrats invited countless millions into our home and expected us to be hospitable and pay whatever they demanded to subsidize their lives.

A new poll found that 78% of Americans favored “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes.” Even 69% of Democrats favored deporting criminals. I simply do not understand the controversy or the thought process behind the 22% of respondents who believe foreign criminals should stay in the US. The majority (56%) favored deporting “all immigrants who are here illegally.” Only 36% of Democrats favor mass deportation efforts.

My condolences to those still living under Build Back Better policies with open borders.

Oct 10 2025

Washington Post: Obamacare was Never Actually Affordable


Posted originally on Oct 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Obamacare

The Affordable Care Plan (Obamacare) was never affordable, admits the editorial board of the Washington Post. The same council that praised Obama’s “signature achievement” finally revealed what the American people so clearly experienced–healthcare costs rose.
“The real problem is that the Affordable Care Act [Obamacare] was never actually affordable,” the Post declared, adding, “assumed that risk pools would be bigger than they turned out to be. As a result, policies cost more than expected.”Socialistic policies never result in savings. Regulatory mandates under the ACA required insurance companies to cover everyone and anyone with pre-existing conditions without any medical underwriting. Healthier and younger Americans were forced to subsidize the costs. The general public was forced to pay for services they did not need and at a higher rate. As a single man, I was forced to purchase child and maternal care coverage, for example. The average individual market premiums skyrocketed by about 129% from 2013 to 2019, more than double what they would have been if Obamacare were not enacted when adjusted for broader medical trends in inflation.

By 2015, the average American was paying 10% of their income toward health insurance. Some mistakenly believed that this socialist mandate would benefit the poor. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute found that 10% of people earning two to five times the federal poverty level were paying over 20% of their incomes to Obamacare. “You basically have an individual mandate that requires you to pay a significant amount of income between premiums and out-of-pocket costs,” one researcher said. “Those high costs, he said, “will make a lot of people think it isn’t worth it.” That 10% to 20% of stolen wages was in addition to mandated government taxation toward Medicare and Social Security. The Obama Administration touted that 70% of new insurers would only pay $75 per month for their plan. You’d be lucky to pay $75 for a week of mandatory coverage, AND that coverage is nowhere near sufficient to prevent the average American from slipping into lifelong medical debt in the event of sickness or injury.

Obamacare Regulations

Millions of people were forced to purchase health care coverage despite the costs. The number of available plans declined, the number of patients assigned to doctors rose, and quality suffered significantly. The headline promise that Americans would be able to keep their preferred doctor was a lie. It is clear to see who benefited from Obamacare since the American people clearly did not.Hence why legislators were immune from participating in the program–rules for thee but not for me. There is a widespread belief that Obamacare was intended to fail in order to push forth universal healthcare coverage. Jonathan Gruber, an ACA architect, admitted that the policy was deceptively complex to elude the Congressional Budget Office. “Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really, really critical for the thing to pass,” Gruber said in a 2013 panel discussion.

“The stupidity of the American voter,” as Gruber so eloquently explained, is precisely what government relies on when it attempts to pass these extreme measures.

Oct 10 2025

The Rape Capital of Europe


Posted originally on Oct 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

BritishJusticeSystem

The United Kingdom has fallen by its own hand. Statista released an extremely troubling report that shows there were 71,227 cases across the country at a rate of 114 per 100,000 people. The figure was 7,801 in 2000. How could this happen?

“Light-on-crime” policies have emboldened dangerous criminals, especially those without citizenship who are already above the law. UK authorities will arrest citizens for complaining about open borders on social media or protesting the demise of their culture. They promote violent crime against women—that is a FACT. The Pakistani grooming gang in Britain was solid proof that the government has been enabling RAPISTS by marking migrants as above the law.

The people of the UK have been protesting for years, but rather than reform, the government has become increasingly authoritarian. Three young girls were attending a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last year when a cowardly 17-year-old male, born to Rwandan parents, attacked the innocent children. Protests erupted across the nation, but the government condemned the protesters, labelling them “far-right thugs.”

Thousands of women in the United Kingdom were taken hostage and exposed to grooming gangs where they were abused and sexually trafficked. The Casey Report released earlier in the year finally admitted that the government failed to acknowledge the abuse because the perpetrators were migrants from Pakistan. These women could have been saved, but the government did not want to admit that they had failed their nation by inviting unvetted men from nations with unaligned moral ethics and views of women.

Sweden Gang Rape

(above: migrants in Sweden livestream a sexual assault)

Sweden has the second-highest occurrence of sexual crimes at 85.9 per 100,000, with France at 59 per 100,000. All of these nations have ONE common factor that people are afraid to admit because the public courts have deemed RAPE more acceptable than acknowledging cultural differences and incompatibilities.

As in the UK, the Swedish government has sided with deviant men over innocent civilians. After an increase in rapes across the nation, the authorities conducted a report that blamed young Swedish girls for the rise in violent sexual crimes. As reported in the Express, the police concede that the vast majority of attacks have taken place in public places and involve Muslim migrants. The report goes further by stating that these Muslims, who are not following their faith, are getting drunk and cannot “handle the alcohol” as they simply feel “horny” and have “ignorance of the consequences for the girls.” So it is the girls’ fault, not the migrants, and certainly not the politicians. When will the fathers start dragging the politicians out into the streets? You know that day is coming.

Merkel Welcome

Europe’s demise can be traced back to one woman–Angela Merkel. She opened the floodgates by permitting anyone and everyone to pour into Europe amid the Syrian war. “Pope Benedict, Joseph Ratzinger, once said that Europe is the faith of Israel, the philosophy of Greece, and the law of ancient Rome,” said Gerald Grosz, Austrian author and former politician. “All of this has been destroyed by Angela Merkel because she has abolished the law of Rome; she has destroyed the faith of Israel because she has exposed Judaism and Christianity to enemies from the Islamic world. She destroyed the philosophy of Greece by importing mostly, not all, (there are also good examples that worked), but mostly importing people from foreign cultures who want to destroy this philosophy, which is based on humanism and the fundamental rights of every individual. Angela Merkel is the destroyer of Europe.”

The Labour Party implemented laws that clearly state “ethnic and cultural minorities” are less likely to receive jail time for crimes. Hate speech is more harmful than violent physical attacks on women, according to every globalist government. The prevalence of rape among ALL Build Back Better open border nations has skyrocketed, but it’s too taboo to discuss. Should women have the right to feel safe in their home country? Think about that the next time you’re in a voting booth.

Oct 9 2025

ZunZeno – How the US Govt Used Social Media to Spur Social Unrest in Cuba


Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Stories are circulating that Barack Obama funneled money through the Cayman Islands to NGOs. While that cannot be entirely verified, the portion of the story regarding the Obama Administration setting up a Twitter clone for Cuba called Zunzuneo is accurate.

The US government under Obama sought ways to subliminally target the people of Cuba while bypassing the strict communist government restrictions on social media. USAID paid government contractors to create “Cuban Twitter,” which first launched in 2009. Initially, ZunZeneo (translation: “hummingbird”) used the platform to discuss neutral topics such as sports, weather, and entertainment. Once the platform expanded to hundreds of thousands of Cubans, the US government began inserting political messages aimed at inciting civil unrest.

The Associated Press even ran an article about the incident in April 2014, “US secretly built ‘Cuban Twitter’ to stir unrest.” A leaked memo from Mobile Accord Inc., the company responsible for creating the platform, emphasized the importance of hiding the US government’s involvement. “This is absolutely crucial for the long-term success of the service and to ensure the success of the Mission,” the memo said.

textingphones

Slow growth was essential for the covert operation. The social platform utilized cellphone text messaging to bypass Cuba’s internet restrictions. “Non-controversial content” on hot topic was used to build a mass subscriber base. Nearly half a million people were subscribed to the platform before the content changed with the goal of organizing “smart mobs” to “renegotiate the balance of power between the state and society,” as one USAID memo revealed.

USAID did not attempt to conceal its involvement, noting in a public statement that the agency was “proud of its work in Cuba to provide basic humanitarian assistance, promote human rights and fundamental freedoms, and to help information flow more freely to the Cuban people,” whom it said “have lived under an authoritarian regime” for 50 years.

USAID claimed it was operating legally, but covert mission to influence foreign politics must be approved by the president. Former President Obama was aware of the program but could not openly discuss his involvement. Cubans were persuaded to rebel with known legal repercussions, wholly unaware that the messaging was coming from a foreign government. “Mock ad banners will give it the appearance of a commercial enterprise,” one proposal suggested.

“The Cuban government, like other regimes committed to information control, currently lacks the capacity to effectively monitor and control such a service,” Bernheim wrote in a proposal for USAID marked “Sensitive Information.”

USAID Logo

Acting Secretary of State Hillary Clinton knew of the mission. By 2011, she began openly discussing the importance of infiltrating foreign governments via the internet to lead to “revolutionary change.” Others in the Biden Administration were left in the dark. “We were told we couldn’t even be told in broad terms what was happening because ‘people will die,’” said Fulton Armstrong, who worked for both the Clinton White House and later the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The ZunZuneo management team was also unaware of US involvement.

USAID NGOs hired Cuban artists to draft messages to appeal to the people. The “Peace without Borders” concert in 2009 was the largest gathering since the visit of late Pope John Paul II. The US government used the occasion to gather intel through ZunZeno. Unassuming polls were sent out to the people, with some messaging containing subtle political components. One message asked respondents if they believed anti-government artists should join the concert. The US government gathered the cell phone numbers of the people who seemed receptive to use in future targeted attacks. This is completely illegal and a violation of data laws.

“If it is discovered that the platform is, or ever was, backed by the United States government, not only do we risk the channel being shut down by Cubacel, but we risk the credibility of the platform as a source of reliable information, education, and empowerment in the eyes of the Cuban people,” Mobile Accord noted in a memo. Shell companies were created throughout various nations, including the Cayman Islands where the company banked with N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd.

“In the implementation has the government taken steps to be discreet in non-permissive environments? Of course. That’s how you protect the practitioners and the public.” USAID spokesman Matt Herrick noted. “In hostile environments, we often take steps to protect the partners we’re working with on the ground. This is not unique to Cuba.”

Influencing foreign politics is certainly not unique to Cuba. A USAID contractor by the name of Alan Gross was sent to Cuba to provide internet access to the people. The program was launched shortly after he was arrested, as his initial goal to compromise Cuba’s internet failed. USAID is solely used to influence foreign politics under the guise of providing aid that the American people provide through taxation.

The platform vanished from the internet in 2012 when Obama was running for his second term. Social media is a favorite tool of government to influence the masses. The amount of money allocated to Cuban Twitter is unknown since USAID operated extremely discreetly, funneling money to endless NGOs to conceal its motives.

Oct 9 2025

China Purchased $38B from the US in Semiconductor Chips


Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Semiconductor.Chip_

Taiwan’s global dominance of semiconductor chip manufacturing has been at the forefront of the US-China technology war. The focus has been on Taiwan, leaving other avenues of Chinese influence ignored. China used loopholes in US law to purchase over $38 billion in chip-making technology in the last year alone, marking a 66% rise in imports since 2022, when legislation was passed to restrict Chinese access to US chip technology.

Military modernization has become the focal point of concern. These advanced chips have been utilized to develop highly detailed surveillance systems, hypersonic weapons, and cutting-edge AI technology. US intelligence believes national security is at risk and there must be an effort to  “impede the PRC’s ability to procure and produce the technologies necessary for its military modernization” to “protect our world-leading technologies and know-how so they aren’t used to undermine our national security.”

The US House of Representatives Select Committee on China is calling for a broad ban on importing US chip technology to China, following the release of a report detailing how Chinese firms have bypassed loopholes in US law to purchase this technology legally.

“These are the sales that made China increasingly competitive in the manufacture of a wide range of semiconductors, with profound implications for human rights and democratic values around the world,” the report said. China accounted for 39% of aggregate sales to Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, ASML, and Tokyo Electron. Legislation has curbed but not deterred sales to China.

A spokesman for Tokyo Electron stated that sales to China have declined since 2022, when the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) implemented a law entitled “Export Controls on Advanced Computing and Semiconductor Manufacturing Items to the People’s Republic of China.” The legislation expanded on Export Administration Regulations (EAR) to include foreign-produced advanced computing items and semiconductor chips.

US businesses seeking to conduct business with Chinese semiconductor companies must obtain a license that is notoriously difficult to acquire. The latest report revealing the $38 billion in sales has raised bipartisan concern, and increased restrictions are expected.

This brings the attention back to Taiwan. China may not purchase advanced technology from the US, and if Taiwan were to move 50% of production to US soil, China would certainly lose its competitive edge. Furthermore, China is also not willing to share technology with the US–why would enemy nations share the most crucial components needed to engage in next-generation warfare? China reclaiming Taiwan would eliminate America’s access to semiconductors. Both China and the US can tariff each other to death, but neither can afford to lose the jewel of Taiwan.

Oct 9 2025

Poland’s PM Praises Man Accused of Destroying Nord Stream Pipeline


Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

Nordstream

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk believes the man who allegedly destroyed the Nord Stream pipeline did his country a great service. Tusk is considering breaking international law by harboring the fugitive who is wanted by the German government. The man, of course, will be the scapegoat for the incident. More telling is Warsaw’s response, rooted in old geopolitical tensions and willful ignorance of how drastically the explosion hurt their own economy.

“The problem of Europe, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland is not that Nord Stream 2 was blown up, but that it was built,” Tusk said. “It is certainly not in the interest of Poland to hand over this citizen to a foreign country.” Poland will hold the man in its custody for an additional 40 days, during which it will consider Germany’s demand that he be extradited for prosecution.

“Russia, with money from some European states and German and (Anglo-) Dutch companies, built Nord Stream 2 against the vital interests not only of our states, but of all of Europe, and there can be no ambiguity about that,” Tusk concluded.

Poland has always been caught between Germany and Russia. From the Polish partitions in the 18th century to Soviet domination in the 20th, the Polish political class views any direct German-Russian cooperation as an existential threat. Poland initially protested the pipeline because it felt that Germany was attempting to remove Eastern Europe’s main bargaining chip with Moscow — energy transportation. They invested in LNG terminals, aligned with US energy interests, and positioned themselves as the eastern front against both Russian and EU central control.

The European Union and the euro could never erase generations of geopolitical hatred and scars. Warsaw simply sees Berlin as the lesser of two evils when it comes to Moscow. Tusk’s comments are a deliberate attempt to create friction with Germany and undermine the power they continue to hold over Poland as the economic center of the EU.

NordStreamExplosionSept2022

One bad apple spoils the bunch, and in the case of Europe, one bad economy will do the trick. Europe was reliant on Russian energy for many years prior to the war. Poland was purchasing 95.5% of its oil from Russia in 2012; the figure declined to 63.1% by 2021 before the war. Yet, Tusk is condemning former German Chancellor Angela Merkel for agreeing to the Nord Stream pipeline. Energy prices spiked by 30% after the pipeline demolition, fueling valid fears of energy shortages across the continent.

The pipeline itself may have been a Russian majority asset, but the infrastructure projects and joint ventures sprouting from the pipeline benefited Europe. European firms, including Wintershall Dea (Germany), E.ON (PEG Infrastruktur, Germany), Gasunie (Netherlands), and ENGIE (France), collectively held 49% of the Nord Stream AG operating company, while Gazprom itself retained 51%.

By now, the world knows that Western intelligence agencies deliberately targeted the pipeline in an act of war. The man detained would be considered a terrorist if these charges were factual. Perhaps they do not want to conduct a fake investigation or trial that would raise suspicions. Tusk needs to look down and realize he’s been shot in the foot with the destruction of this pipeline that ALL of Europe, not merely Germany, benefited from.