Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Jul 16 2025

Judge Rules Medical Debt Must Appear on Credit Reports


Posted originally on Jul 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Debt Burden

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) may no longer remove medical debt from credit scores, a federal judge has ruled. This is yet another example of political cycles dictating economic policy, as the Trump-era judge dismissed the Biden-appointed mandate. Today, regulators expand; tomorrow, courts shrink. Millions of Americans will be affected by this ruling.

The Biden Administration was not attempting to wipe out medical debt; rather, the ruling would have changed how medical debt impacted credit scores. U.S. District Judge Sean Jordan, a Trump appointee, argued that the Fair Credit Reporting Act does not permit the CFPB to decide what debt it will and will not report.

Consumer advocates see this as punishment for those who fall ill to no fault of their own. The credit industry believes that payment is due when it is due. The medical industry would likely demand upfront payments, which has become a more common practice. None of this addresses the root cause—healthcare costs are obscene in the United States. Yet, lobbyists continue to line the pockets of politicians, and meaningful change never occurs despite politicians on both sides acknowledging the growing problem.

Currently, one in 12 adults living in the United States has medical debt exceeding $250. Over 14 million Americans, 6% of all adults, owe $1,000, while 3 million people, or 1% of the adult population, have medical debt exceeding $10,000. Medical debt is the leading cause of bankruptcies in America. As of late 2024, Americans were collectively behind on $220 billion worth of medical debt. Around 66.5% of all bankruptcy filings are a direct result of medical bills, affecting over 550,000 Americans annually.

The stop‑start volatility undermines both consumer confidence and market stability. The law is subject to change with each regime change, and the people are unprepared for the rug pull that happens with each new administration. The root of this issue has been entirely ignored and will contribute to the consumer debt crisis facing the nation, which spills into the overall economic growth of the nation.

Ca

Jul 16 2025

US Inflation Rises in June


Posted originally on Jul 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Inflation up

Core inflation’s mild “only” 2.9% annualized rise is not cause for relief. Government agencies, central banks, and regulators all react to data. The Fed, having held rates steady since May, will now sit on its hands until reports confirm if inflation gets a firm grip. Jerome Powell has come out once more to state that the FOMC would have lowered rates if not for Trump’s tariffs. Trump is in opposition with the Fed as fiscal policy blames monetary policy, and no one opens their eyes to see the underlying problem.

A massive systemic risk looms on the horizon as consumer stress intensifies. Medical services, shelter, apparel, food, and everything else have been significantly more expensive since the pandemic, although the trend began five years ahead of COVID. These structural moving parts are more than mere statistics, as they are a sign of social stability and confidence.

Core inflation rose 0.2% for the month, representing a 2.9% annualized increase. The consumer price index rose by 0.3% in June, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.7%.

I’ve repeatedly warned that the inflationary trend, which has become stagflation, would be blamed on Trump’s policy. “In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

I’ve said it once, and I will say it again– Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.

The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) has even issued a report that found PCE consistent across core goods, excluding energy, over the past three years. The CEA found “no clear break” in trend despite the headlines. Inflation has been above target for years and the Fed simply cannot control the trend.

Expect a cautious Fed. And expect politicians to blame their opponents, as always, rather than seeking the actual cause. Those politicians merely turn to academics who do not understand how the economy functions at its core and rely on outdated concepts that do not reflect the current landscape. The real culprit is cyclical history repeating itself—trade policy swings, inflationary follow-through, central bank reaction, and then economic slowdown.

Socrates is already flagging this cycle rising. And in 2026, we’ll look back and see that June 2025 was merely the early tremor of a system-wide shift.

Jul 16 2025

Japan & MNRA Studies


Posted originally on Jul 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Child Vaccine

Some people are reporting that Japanese researchers were able to obtain vaccine and death records for 21 million people, and determined that those who died from MNRA came in “death waves” that took place 3-4 months after the injections, not right away. The data also reveal how long it takes for your death risk to return to normal, following a covid jab. This does not appear to be verifiable.

Data from Japan has been elusive.  They definitely have the information infrastructure, seen in publications with amazing detail for population studies.  It is a country of ~125M, and ~1.6M die every year.  So 21M would be ~13 years worth of death data.  I think it’s plausible that a researcher gets that much data.  I’ve seen shoddy population-wide mortality calculations before, but my guess is Japan would grant access to someone with the necessary experience.  And Japan has been under a decent amount of pressure to reveal details of its excess mortality:

Okada and Nishiura had a preprint released earlier this year with significantly smaller numbers for life expectancy in 2022 compared to 2021 or 2020. A paper chock-full of pandemic awareness, and notably, the one word most conspicuously absent: “vaccine.”

Also, out of the Japanese Medical Association (JMA) Journal: “Although Japan recorded the world’s highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses per capita, COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the emergence of the Omicron variant, followed by a significant increase in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines.”

And another in BMJ comparing pre/post mortality: Excess mortality during and after the COVID-19 emergency in Japan: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Unvaxxed_sperm_in_demand_by_hopeful_moms_Toronto_Sun

Even I must to admit, I received inquiries when some heard I refused to be vaccinated to my surprise. I am cautious even with my dogs. Traditional rabies vaccines have been effective for decades, but advancements in biotechnology are introducing new options.

1 Waiting Dogs

One such innovation is the mRNA-based rabies vaccine for dogs, which enhances protection and improves production. Why change something that has worked for decades if it is not broken? Make more money? Rabies in dogs has been largely eradicated in the United States. Yet the producers of vaccines have succeeded in making it a law that dogs must be vaccinated. I demand to know who makes any vaccine before they inject my dogs.

Reagan Trust but verify

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Jul 15 2025

UK Data Use and Access Act – Digital Wallets Coming


Posted originally on Jul 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Digital ID 2

The Data (Use and Access) Act, also known as the DUA Bill, has provided the UK government with the ability to roll out a series of programs that will eventually force citizens to participate in a digital ID program. The law was enacted with the premise of reinforcing security and providing convenience for businesses and individuals, with the true goal of surrendering all data and control to government authorities.

The UK government has eased the public into the concept by launching digital verification services. Phase one enabled citizens to voluntarily create a digital identity to streamline the right to work and the right to rent procedures and provide access to age-restricted products. Phase two will create a foundation for Digital Verification Services (DVS) and government oversight of digital identities. Approved services will receive a trust mark to note that they have been verified by the government. The program is currently in a pilot phase but the government plans to move full speed ahead by the end of the year.

“This independent certification process has given lots of organisations across the UK economy the confidence to start accepting digital identity. In some parts of the economy though government or businesses need extra assurance, beyond the requirements in the trust framework, before a digital identity can be used,” the government noted, later adding, “We estimate that hundreds of thousands of right to work, right to rent and disclosure and barring checks each month are now taking place using digital identity services providers; but that’s just the small step towards a much bigger transformation we want to enable through our work.”

In two years, after people are accustomed to creating and using their digital identity, the government plans to launch a digital wallet (GOV.UK Wallet) that will store citizens’ official government-issued documents. The Home Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into the risks associated with this digital ID, with industries and watchdog services raising a red flag over concerns regarding government overreach and surveillance. Critics are also concerned about the true security measures a centralized database could offer as data breaches and unauthorized access are possible. The initial attempt to create GOV.UK failed and cost the government £200 million and there is no currently publicly disclosed total cost of the plans to create a new version.

Digital Identity Chart

Government never implements a policy without expansion. There are already discussions of incorporating tax information into GOV.UK in the future, for example. Digital ID is not about convenience. It’s about CONTROL. The entire agenda is to monitor everything you do, say, and spend in real-time. They need Digital IDs to enforce CBDCs. Without it, they can’t control how you spend money. Every nation will attempt to create its version of a digital ID before they are combined into one centralized database, per United Nations guidelines. There will be public resistance toward these systems as government trust erodes. The plan will never be voluntarily repealed once implemented and overreach will expand until all freedoms are forcibly surrendered.

Jul 15 2025

Over $4B Pledged to Ukraine Reconstruction


Posted originally on Jul 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Ukraine on Fire

The Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 (URC) on July 10-11 in Rome concluded with joint agreements to provide Ukraine with 3.55 billion euros for reconstruction. “We received a clear message from Ukraine’s friends and partners: they are ready to invest in our recovery,” Oleksii Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine and Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories stated. There is false hope that Ukraine will exist after this prolonged conflict.

The Ministry approved of five agreements worth over 370 million euros during this conference. The Italian Foreign Ministry agreed to offer 100% insurance coverage for banks on export loans up to 1.5 billion euros. If a bank lends money to support exports to Ukraine but the borrower fails to repay, the government-backed institution will take the loss. The claim is that the guarantee will safeguard Italian companies so that they may continue exporting goods and services to Ukraine. Ukrainian buyers will also have access to credit, and with the 100% insurance guarantee, banks may lower credit standards to otherwise risky borrowers. The potential for fraud is enormous. Worse, the Italian government and therefore the Italian people will be on the hook for 1.5 billion euros amid a highly unstable environment where repayment is not guaranteed.

The European Union and development banks also signed 10 agreements worth 929.3 million euros at the Rome conference. The World Bank through in $200 million as well for good measure. “Rebuilding Ukraine is not just about our country. It’s also about your countries, your companies, your technology, your jobs,” Zelensky said. Quite contrary as these government programs are selling out domestic policy in favor of a foreign government. The people do not benefit in any meaningful way as Europe has never relied on Ukraine for trade. Europe was more beholden to Russia before this ongoing war, which is precisely why they are experiencing a worsening energy crisis.

We need a Marshall Plan-style approach, and we should develop it together,” Zelensky stated, referring to the $13 billion (over $150 billion today) deal that the US granted to 16 European nations after World War II. The scale cannot be compared. The United States needed to stabilize Europe after the war to ensure that capital could continue to flow back to the States. No one is relying on Ukrainian capital. The US was also attempting to quell the spread of communism during this time and had a plethora of motives for assistance, none of which were purely charitable.

Western leaders are sacrificing countless funds for a nation that was never a strategic partner prior to the war. They believe the true jewel will be conquering Russia, whereas Ukraine is merely their stepping stone to enter the resource-rich, unconquerable land. Countless issues could be avoided if decision makers used history as their guide.

Jul 15 2025

Auto Pen Scandal – Did Biden’s Aides Grant Pardons?


Posted originally on Jul 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Presidential Pardon

“I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons,” an aide for former President Joe Biden wrote in an email pardoning Dr Anthony Fauci and members of the January 6 Committee. The National Archives has turned over tens of thousands of emails from the Joe Biden Administration to the Justice Department from November 2024 to January 2025 as the autopen investigation continues.

The majority of the emails in question contain keywords like “pardon,” “clemency,” and “commutation.” Biden’s staff claims that the former president vocalized his clemency decisions before Staff Secretary Stefanie Feldman approved them via autopen. Joe Biden’s final debate with Donald Trump occurred during this timeframe, leading the DNC to remove him from the race entirely as Biden was visibly showing signs of cognitive decline. “I’ve uncovered, you know, the human mind,” Trump said as reported by the New York Times. “I was in a debate with the human mind, and I didn’t think he knew what the hell he was doing.”

Biden claimed during his first interview last Thursday that he permitted 25 high-profile pardons through the use of an autopen from December 2024 to January 2025. The use of an autopen was allegedly necessary since there were too many people to pardon and the president simply could not allocate time for such crucial decisions. At this time, the DOJ is uncertain whether Joe Biden actually knew who his staff pardoned with his signature.

Biden pardon Fauci

“At the Jan. 19 meeting, which took place in the Yellow Oval Room of the White House residence, Mr. Biden kept his aides until nearly 10 p.m. to talk through such decisions, according to people familiar with the matter,” the NYT wrote. “The emails show that an aide to Mr. Siskel sent a draft summary of Mr. Biden’s decisions at that meeting to an assistant to Mr. Zients, copying Mr. Siskel, at 10:03 p.m. The assistant forwarded it to Mr. Reed and Mr. Zients, asking for their approval, and then sent a final version to Ms. Feldman — copying many meeting participants and aides — at 10:28 p.m,” the reporting continues. “Three minutes later, Mr. Zients hit ‘reply all’ and wrote, ‘I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons,’” the NYT concludes.

Biden pardoned or reduced the sentences for over 4,000 people, allegedly. “Mr. Biden did not individually approve each name for the categorical pardons that applied to large numbers of people, he and aides confirmed,” the NYT wrote. Instead, he simply provided a rough criterion for his aids to determine who qualified for a reduced sentence. This stands in contrast with Biden’s claims that he “consciously made all those decisions.” Unelected aides do not have the authority to reduce sentences or issue pre-emptive pardons. Biden’s aides have lawyered up, but there is no unified legal strategy, as Congress plans to issue additional subpoenas as the investigation continues.

The only pardon that Biden personally signed was for his son, Hunter. It is still unclear why people such as Hunter Biden and Anthony Fauci were pre-emptively pardoned if no crimes were committed. Again, only the president has the authority to determine who can be pardoned. Using an auto pen is standard procedure for presidents; however, the issues here are 1) did Joe Biden himself directly make these decisions, and 2) was Joe Biden mentally competent to understand the nature of these decisions?

Jul 14 2025

Will Mass Deporation Harm US GDP?


Posted Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GDP 3

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a percentage point in 2025, followed by larger cuts in the coming years.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS FACTORED INTO GDP.

I have repeatedly warned that Donald Trump would be blamed for the stagflation we are experiencing, when in reality his policies could not have impacted a cycle that was already in motion.

The study used a baseline scenario where 2.4 unauthorized migrants were deported in 2025, leading to a 0.8% drop in GDP for 2025. In a scenario where 1 million migrants are deported annually through 2027, the study believes GDP could decline by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.5 percentage points by 2027.

The study states that the labor force will contract as a result of closed borders, which is not a reflection of reality, as Americans are filling the roles once taken by non-foreign-born workers.

The problem is the brain-dead method used to calculate GDP. Government spending happens to be one of the main components of GDP. Cutting the public sector, for example, cut into GDP as even the salaries of government employees are factored into calculations.

GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)

  • C is consumer spending,
  • I is business investment,
  • G is government spending on goods and services,
  • X is exports,
  • M is imports

An untold fortune has been spent on open border policies. New York City alone believes migrant-related costs will reach $12 billion by mid-2025. The House Budget Committee stated in a 2024 report that American taxpayers were forced to pay at least $150.7 billion on “President Biden’s open border policies,” but that is a low estimate.

The American people are forced into increased taxation as a result of these policies. GDP calculations are a disaster and too warped to reveal the true health of the economy. Stagflation was inevitable, but the academics will continue to blame Trump-era policies that have had absolutely zero impact on the ongoing cycle.

Jul 14 2025

The World’s Largest Pension Fund Down $61B Last Quarter – Warning for Japan


Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Japan_Debt_Crisis_2025 6 5 25

The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds split 25% domestically and 25% foreign.

Any pension fund that holds government debt in size and thinks it will return to normal is delusional, as I mentioned back in 2021. They have faith that yields will recover when that is simply not the case. The entire idea of pensions has been set around the average 8 % return in interest rates, but it has been pension funds that are primarily the cause of lower interest rates, not the central banks. The number of pension funds out there created a bid for long‑term bonds.

Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies. The Bank of Japan owns over 50% of JGBs, making it the largest single holder, which has created a rigged market. Yields have been artificially lowered, and capital allocation has been distorted for years. Pension funds, banks, and insurance companies have been locked into JGBs, not because they want yield, but because regulation and policy have given them no choice.

As for Japanese pensions, the large aging population and shrinking workforce have led to fewer taxpayers capable of supporting this growing demographic. GPIF began moving into foreign assets to escape the BOJ’s doomed policy of negative interest rate,s but it is trapped overall. Japan looks to GPIF as a sign of economic confidence, and these losses are a warning.

Socrates has issued bearish long-term outlooks on the Japanese bond market and warns of sovereign debt crises that will directly impact pension systems. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) pay absolutely nothing, and yet GPIF is required to hold a portion. When there is no buyer left, the burden will fall on the Bank of Japan, and that is simply unsustainable. As the computer has warned, the sovereign debt crisis will begin in Japan before spreading like a contagion.

Jul 14 2025

New Report Finds Tariffs not to Blame for Inflation


Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Trump tariff

The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) issued a new report that found tariffs are not to blame for inflation. In fact, the cost of imported goods has fallen this past year to a lower level than that of overall goods.

“CEA’s directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables,” the report reads. “The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs.”

Imported goods fell by 0.8% while the price of overall goods remained stagnant. The PCE index rose 0.4% from December to May or a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA’s findings. Yet, the imported portion of PCE fell by 0.1% during the same period.

“The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly,” the report reads. “Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices.”

The agency concluded “there is no clear trend break” this year in prices, despite the headlines claiming tariffs are the reason inflation remains above target.

Jul 13 2025

The Deep State Wins Again


Posted originally on Jul 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Every single person who was on the January 6th Commission that was trying to call it an insurrection to use the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from even running for office should be hauled out and put on trial under 18 U.S. Code § 595 – Interference by administrative employees of Federal, State, or Territorial Governments. The objective of that entire committee was treasonous, and its members should be put on trial for the world to see. The judges who presided over the January 6th cases should also be disbarred. Until this is carried out, the Deep State will survive and prevail.

There can be no free society or equal protection of the law until every member of that committee is criminally charged and put on trial.

Deep State 1