Posted originally on Dec 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde steps in every time a government attempts to implement monetary policy. The centralized power now has the final say, sorry, but sovereignty is not an option for European Union members. Italy proposed declaring gold an asset of the people, but Lagarde has found a way to prevent that from happening.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s ruling coalition stated that the Bank of Italy’s 2,452 metric tons of gold reserves, estimated to be worth $300 billion, is the property of the people. Senator Lucio Malan of Fratelli d’Italia asserted that gold held by the central bank belongs to the people during the 2026 budget review. “Not even the Bank of Italy can act unilaterally with the gold,” Senator Malan said in an interview, adding that the purpose is “to safeguard the gold reserves from future misuse.”
Now, the fact that this proposal even arose is a sign that the government is desperate. Italy knows it is under fiscal stress and people are losing faith in fiat currency. The government wants to control those gold reserves to hedge against itself. If Italy succeeds in re-writing control over gold reserves, it sets a precedent across the eurozone that gold could be its way to bail out budgets. “For the people” equates to “for the social welfare system,” as politicians could then say they need to liquidate reserves to pay for services that will be provided to the people.
“The Italian authorities are invited to reconsider the draft provision, also with a view to preserving the independent performance of the basic ESCB-related tasks of the Banca d’Italia under the Treaty,” the ECB said in a formal statement. Gold reserves are to be managed by national central banks, and the ECB believes there is no “concrete purpose” for transferring legal ownership. “The Bank of Italy is no different from any other national central bank,” Lagarde said. “This is not a trivial issue, because Italy is the third largest holder of gold among the central banks.”
That gold belongs to the bureaucrats in Brussels, or at least, that is the line of thinking among the ECB. Europe is due for a panic cycle in 2026 and 2032. Centralized government will be the catalyst for the European Union failing. The sovereign debt crisis is unavoidable at this point. Europe wants war as an excuse to default without the people turning on their own governments. Gold will rise as a store of value because the underlying confidence in the monetary system and government is failing. The ECB wants to protect itself, as do individual member nations who now realize they are unable to shield themselves from the collective of Brussels as everyone must perish on this sinking ship.
Posted originally on Dec 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The United Kingdom has eroded all citizens’ individual rights. No one is safe, even if they are thousands of miles away. Around 33 people are arrested each day for voicing opinions or engaging in legal actions that the government does not approve of. In 2023, authorities arrested over 12,000 people across England and Wales, citing the Communications Act and the Malicious Communications Act.
Arrests have increased and surpassed national borders. A man from Yorkshire was on holiday in Florida, participating in a favorite state pastime of marksmanship. He posted a picture of himself holding a rifle on social media, which should be perfectly legal. The rifle was lawfully owned and he was on private land. Nevertheless, the image was reported to the authorities, who descended on his home in the middle of the night. He spent the night in jail and later appeared at Bradford Magistrate Court where he faced up to six months imprisonment.
“‘I have not been able to sleep, I’ve lived in fear of a knock at my door for the last three months. I haven’t spoken to my neighbours for four months. It has damaged my ability to run my business,” the man told reporters. “I thought 1984 was a book, not an instruction manual.”
“1984” has been an instruction manual for the UK and other governments who are carefully monitoring every citizen, waiting for a misstep. Cameras are absolutely everywhere; it is only a matter of time before they start using drones to monitor citizens as they did in the book.
I have warned for decades that political systems enter decline when confidence shifts from government to the people. The crackdown on protests, censorship of dissenting views, and judicial overreach are the classic signs of a government losing legitimacy. The government insists it is “protecting” the public, when in reality, these measures are an attempt to maintain control over a population that sees government as the problem.
Thought control is merely the beginning. We are looking at Western governments implementing capital controls and restricting the freedom of movement.
The British people are experiencing what history has illustrated time and time again. Tyranny does not appear suddenly. Rather, it creeps into daily life until the people finally say “enough.” Until then, the ruling class will continue to believe they can legislate obedience, silence opposition, and cling to a system already in decline.
Posted originally on Dec 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Inflation in the US is on the rise, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index that rose 0.3% in September. Inflation now sits at 2.8%, above the Fed’s target, while unemployment continues to rise. This is the data the Federal Open Market Committee will review when it meets for the last time in 2025.
Gasoline prices spiked 4.1% in September, the leading cause of the overall rise in headline CPI. Shelter costs are continuing to rise, up 0.2% on a monthly basis. Housing alone has contributed 1.7 percentage points to CPI. Housing combined with health care created two-thirds of the annual increase in inflation. Naturally, this is an area of concern—these are the basic necessities for existence.
Grocery prices have not waned, with food at home rising to 2.7% in September. The overall food index is at 3.1%–notable annual rises include meats/poultry/fish/eggs (+5.2%) and nonalcoholic beverages (+5.3%); cereals/bakery (+1.6%), fruits/vegetables (+1.3%), and dairy (+0.7%).
Looking at employment, nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 in September, surpassing market expectations. Unemployment now stands at 4.4%, up 0.1% from the month prior, at the highest level since October 2021. The Labor Department revised job figures for July and August to show a decrease of 33,000 positions. We’ve seen a number of corporations impose mass layoffs this year. The data is skewed from the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not bother to publish the full October jobs report.
The data is never accurate; the agency is bypassing October and admittedly overreporting numbers in the summer. I do not see much reassurance from the September jobs report.
Posted originally on Dec 8, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
President Trump released the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) of the US, released by the White House on December 4th, 2025, marks a potentially profound shift in US foreign policy. He has criticized Europe and insisted on ending the perception and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance. This 33-page document specifically embraces an ‘America First’ doctrine, rejecting global hegemony and ideological Neocon crusades that are always in favor of war and world dominance. The Neocons constantly claim Putin wants to invade Europe so we have to expand NATO to their border to prevent him from doing so as if Russia was still communist from the old cold war days.
Trump is shifting the focus to a more pragmatic, transactional realism focused on protecting core national interests rather than Neocon desire to conquer the world. In 2023, Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), two dangerous Neocons, authored legislation requiring that any presidential decision to exit NATO must have either two-thirds Senate approval or be authorized through an act of Congress. These Neocons pushed this legislation and the got it to pass stuffed in the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which President Joe Biden signed into law probably with an autopen fed into the machine by Antony Blinken or Victoria Nuland.
I would argue that Trump can sidestep these Neocons citing presidential authority over foreign policy. Congress can try, but the Constitution does not clearly give Congress the power to force a president to remain in a treaty such as NATO. This is one of the biggest unresolved constitutional gaps in U.S. foreign-relations law. Article II gives the president power to make treaties with the advice and consent of the Senate (two-thirds vote). It says nothing about who has the power to terminate treaties.
Presidents Have Terminated Treaties Unilaterally
If we look at history and precedent, presidents of both parties have withdrawn from treaties without prior congressional approval, including:
1854 – Franklin Pierce withdrew from the U.S.–Swiss treaty
1899 – McKinley ended parts of the U.S.–China treaty
1979 – Carter unilaterally withdrew from the U.S.–Taiwan defense treaty
2002 – George W. Bush exited the ABM Treaty
2020 – Donald Trump withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty
Congress never successfully blocked any of these actions. Consequently, this long-standing practice builds a strong historical precedent (though not formally adjudicated). Therefore, this Neocon act introduced by Tim Kaine and Marco Rubio, which in their mind would send everyone else’s children to die for their personal hatred and glory, is by no means “airtight,” and would expose the bloodthirsty Neocons for what they really are since this law sets up a direct constitutional conflict with Congress if a president does try to withdraw as I have recommended.
Our American children are at risk just as they were coming home in body-bags from Vietnam when President Johnson lied to the American people admitted we were never attacked and Robert McNamara who admitted before he died that they were wrong and thought Russia was involved confirming they were not and it was “just a civil war.” I just had a meeting with a vet from the Iraq War who lost his leg all for another lie – weapons of mass destruction that never existed.
These Neocons are consumed with power and hatred and that is a lethal combination. They have usurped US foreign policy for personal glory and hatred. This has been a strategic coup by unelected Neocons who have created endless wars for personal vendettas. Approximately 35% of the current publicly held U.S. national debt can be attributed to the direct costs of past wars and the interest accrued on that borrowed war spending. The average American is paying for the Neocon warmongering with higher mortgage rates because this war expenditure continually expands and will never be paid off. These Neocons have undermined the living standards of the people all for their personal hatreds and glory to rule the world.
Trump should declare he was pulling out of NATO; I would force Congress into a legal position and launch an investigation of any Senator or Representative to ensure that they are not profiting in any way from the war expenditures they are advocating.
The Supreme Court has generally held that institutional conflicts between the branches are political questions best resolved through the political process rather than through judicial intervention. But we are dealing with Neocons here who have engaged in a covert coup of American foreign policy, which to me is treason. Perhaps we need Treason Trials like Roman Emperors Tiberius and Caligula to get our country back from the brink.
In court, you have to have what is called “standing” to bring a case. I cannot bring a case against you for not paying your child’s college bills. Only your child would have “standing” to bring the action provided you did not guarantee the college. Here, the only party with standing would be Congress itself, but it is not clear that the Republicans in Congress would support such a suit. If they did, they you know who should be hauled out of Capital Hill in chains.
It would take Congress which has the strongest standing to sue over a presidential withdrawal from NATO. Perhaps you could argue Americans who own property in NATO countries might be able to claim standing. This type of claim is less certain.
Even if the Supreme Court took up the case, it’s not clear who would win because the constitutional question is murky. Congress has never mounted a direct legal challenge to a president withdrawing from a treaty. Article II gives the president power to make treaties with the consent of Congress but it does NOT give the power to Congress to even negotiate a treaty.
Article 5 under the NATO treaty is fundamentally voluntary in its implementation. This is a critical and often misunderstood point. The Wording of Article 5 Itself states:
“…each of them will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force…”
The crucial phrase is “such action as it deems necessary.” This grants each member nation the sovereign right to decide what form its assistance will take. There is no prescribed, automatic obligation to declare war or deploy troops. Rubio thinks that it would not be voluntary and has no problem sleeping a night knowing your son or daughter will die for his personal hatred. All my friend from high school who died for Vietnam all for lies. As McNamara said, it was just a civil war and that is Ukraine which we instigated thanks to Victoria Nuland, John. McCain, and Antony Blinken.
Meanwhile, Trump can also undermine NATO without formally leaving, even if he chooses not to follow my recommendation and get out. He could refuse U.S. support by withholding ambassadors or keeping troops from participating in military exercises. While several lawmakers in February called for new legislative measures to guard against these risks, nothing serious has materialized since. Again, any lawmaker who sells out our country for war should be removed from any government position whatsoever.
“Following Trump’s threats in his first term, the Congress — recognizing the vital importance of NATO — acted on a bipartisan basis to prevent any future presidents from unilaterally withdrawing,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement. He is another Neocon. NATO is not important to America. “While Trump may resort to his old tricks, we’ll continue working to shore up NATO and stand ready to fight back against any attempts to undermine the strength of this alliance.”
Kaine, one of the authors of the NATO guardrail, slammed Trump’s rhetoric on the alliance and argued the U.S. “is safest when we link arms with our allies.” He is an idiot that peace is NEVER achieved with force. He also said: “Donald Trump’s disparaging comments about NATO are disturbing, and my hope is that the legislation we passed will ensure the United States continues to participate in this crucial alliance.”
We should stand aside, let Europe destroy itself for the third time, and then pick up the pieces but no Marshall Plan this time. I would promote legislation that prohibits any legislator from voting for war unless they have a family member that are willing to hand a gun and say here, go kill a bunch a people. They have no problem sending other people’s children to war while exempting their own.
October 13, 1960
The Third Kennedy-Nixon Presidential Debate
It has been the Neocon agenda or having bases everywhere that has undermined the economy in the face of constant US overreach as a failure that weakened America. President Kennedy said that in his campaign debate with Nixon in 1960. It was the building of basdes everywhere that increased the dollars and that brought down Bretton Woods and the gold standard all for the Neocon agenda. Kennedy’s remarks set off a gold panic in 1960 as people feared the US would contract and no longer fund the defense of Europe. Kennedy said:
“The difficulty, of course, is that we do have heavy obligations abroad, that we therefore have to maintain not only a favorable balance of trade but also send a good deal of our dollars overseas to pay our troops, maintain our bases, and sustain other economies.”
I laid out in the peace proposal that the real enemy would be the EU – not Russia. That has proven to be correct. There was even a secret meeting where Macron and Merz instructed Zelensky no peace. There is way too much money at stake in addition to all the billions flowing into the pockets of Ukrainian and EU politicians, no peace means the EU gets to keep the over $300 billion in Euroclear. If you actually look closely, you will see that the EU has violated international law for about 80% of that money belongs to private Russians, not state assets. This is all about keeping American sending billions with no accountability that EU lawmakers get their shares.
Any American legislator who votes to keep sending money to Ukraine and NATO should reveal all net wealth personally and their family including second degree. War is the MOST profitable war to enter office broke, and leave a multi-millionaire. Trump’s approach is all about ushering in a “new golden age” for the United States, which the Democrats keep trying to prevent simply because it is Trump – not that the policies are good, bad, or indifferent. Politics is no longer about the country or the people, it is to embarrass the opponent regardless of the issue just to win.
Trump’s 33-page document organizes US strategy around three pillars: Homeland defense, the Western Hemisphere, and economic renewal. Secondary focuses include selective partnerships in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Here are the major shifts in strategy compared to the previous strategies of not just Biden/Neocons, but also Trump’s first term:
From global cop to regional hegemon: Unlike Biden’s 2022 NSS (which emphasized alliances and great-power competition) or Trump’s 2017 version (which named China and Russia as revisionists), this document ends America’s “forever burdens” abroad. It prioritizes the Americas over Eurasia, framing Europe and the Middle East as deprioritized theaters.
Ideological retreat: Democracy promotion is explicitly abandoned – “we seek peaceful commercial relations without imposing democratic change” (tell that to the Venezuelans). Authoritarians are not judged, and the EU is called “anti-democratic.”
Confrontational ally relations: Europe faces scathing criticism for migration, free speech curbs, and risks of “civilizational erasure” (e.g., demographic shifts making nations “unrecognizable in 20 years”). The US vows to support the “patriotic” European parties resisting this, drawing Kremlin-like rhetoric accusations from EU leaders.
China policy: Acknowledges failed engagement; seeks “mutually advantageous” ties but with deterrence (e.g., Taiwan as a priority). No full decoupling, but restrictions on tech/dependencies.
Multipolar acceptance: Invites regional powers to manage their spheres (e.g., Japan in East Asia, Arab-Israeli bloc in the Gulf), signaling US restraint to avoid direct confrontations.
We are looking at a seismic shift in America’s approach to NATO. As I have said, NATO should be shut down for its sole purpose in like a Mafia protection racket. It is not there to promote peace, it keeps getting money only by constantly claiming that Russia wants to conquer Europe. It has even tried to expand into Asia to create war with China agains to keep its money flowing in endlessly. NATO is a ruthless retirement home for Neocons.
Trump has put normalizing relations with Russia among ‘core interests’ where the days of empire building are over. I have explained that only the Roman Empire achieved peace because people realized it was more beneficial to be inside the Empire with free trade than on the outside looking in. Sanction have NEVER worked even once. Neocons have constantly sought to wage economic war under the theory that will bring down their hated opponent.
The US MUST abandon Ukraine!!!!! It is far too corrupt and ONLY when the billions stop flowing into the pockets of the elite Ukrainians will this war ever come to an end. The propaganda of the NATO and the EU to keep this corruption and money flowing has been to instill fear in Europeans to convince them that Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant US diplomatic engagement. The EU is not prepared for peace because it needs that $300 billion just to stay alive until 2027 at best.
December 2025 is a Double Directional Change and then by February we have a Panic Cycle. From January on, the dire economic conditio0n within the EU will continue to force their had to push for war with Russia and they will most likely stage a false flag.
Posted originally on Dec 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: This is what Carney is doing to Canada. He is following Stammer, and civil rights are all gone. This man is found in breach of a judge’s order for refusing to write a court-ordered apology letter to library manager Shannon Slater for “hurting her feelings.”
Anonymous
REPLY: Any government that is in trouble turns to authoritarianism to retain power. They get along with it as long as police refuse to obey their duty and just follow orders that even violet their oath of office. The day of reckoning takes place when the police wake up and realize what they are doin is violating the rights of their own posterity. The police in this incident illustrate how tyranny can strip humanity fo all right for they justify their actions and just following orders.
My father was a judge. Once upon a time, I have faith in the dignity of our governments and the integrity of the rule of law. We need to replace judges with AI for that is the ONLY way to ever restore LIBERTY. What this video demonstrates is that we are fed a bunch of propaganda The word propaganda comes from the verb propagare, meaning “to propagate,” “to spread,” or “to extend.” It was originally an agricultural term referring to the propagation of plants (e.g., by cuttings or grafts). Our judicial system has become a disgrace. Judges think they are the king. Disobey whatever they command, and you go to jail. We had revolutions against a king, yet judges have refused to acknowledge that they do not have such powers to imprison people just because the king exercised such powers.
Once the rule of law collapses, the final end of a civilization is not far behind.
Posted originally on Dec 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Subchapter V filings intended for small businesses have risen 8% annually to 2,221 bankruptcies as of November 2025. Bloomberg and other various sources are blaming Trump’s tariffs, but they are missing the mark entirely.
“High borrowing costs, cautious consumers and the Trump administration’s trade war are weighing on earnings for the smallest businesses,” Bloomberg reported. “High borrowing costs, cautious consumers and the Trump administration’s trade war are weighing on earnings for the smallest businesses.”
Interest rates have been on the rise since 2022, reversing the cheap credit pipeline that fueled overleveraging. Firms both big and small relied on that easy money, and who could forget the immense PPP loans provided to businesses in the wake of the pandemic. Small businesses operate on thin margins and are vulnerable to cost increases or supply chain disruptions. Inflation has never meaningfully waned since the pandemic. It costs more to buy and more to borrow. Consumers are spending more on less and placing the essentials on credit.
Bankruptcies are not limited to Main Street. Reuters reported that US corporate bankruptcies are looking at a 15-year high based on S&P Global data. Corporate bankruptcy filings hit 655 through October compared to 687 for the duration of 2024. The industrials sector alone saw 98 businesses go under due to supply chain vulnerabilities. Larger corporations may be less vulnerable to shocks but they are still burdened by debt.
No one is immune to the current situation. Corporations with assets exceeding $100 million are seeing a surge in closures and bankruptcies. Trends in Large Corporate Bankruptcy and Financial Distress—Midyear 2025 Update found that filings began to increase in early 2023 and have continued to rise into 2025. Over the past year, 117 mega corporations filed for bankruptcy. This is unusually high and 44% above the 2005-2024 average of 81 bankruptcies per year.
Mega bankruptcies or corporations with assets exceeding $1 billion are also on the rise, with 32 filings in the past month, up from 24 the year prior. The 2005-2024 average was 23 per year. In the first half of 2025 alone there were 17 mega bankruptcies on record, marking the highest figure on record since the pandemic of 2020.
The problem is structural in nature and far more complex than a crisis caused by tariffs. The fact that mega bankruptcies are rising shows that even large, previously “too big to fail” firms are no longer immune from collapse and suggests a weakening foundation that threatens the broader financial system.
Posted originally on Dec 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Towns are cheering the arrival of new AI data centers, guaranteed to attract capital and jobs, but new revelations reveal dangerous health consequences for nearby residents.
A large datacenter in Morrow County, Oregon, employs over 1,8000 full-time workers. AWS investments at large employ over 8,320 full-time workers, contributing $11.8 billion to the US GDP.
The facility in Morrow County, operational since 2011, has helped to diversify the area, as 40% of the county’s residents live below the poverty line. Amazon has paid over $100 million in county taxes over the past decade, carrying the local economy. The facility requires millions of gallons of aquifer water each year for cooling, which then mixes with nitrate-rich agricultural wastewater. That wastewater re-enters the local system, and has saturated the sandy soil and contaminated wells. A health department officially randomly tested 70 homes for contaminated water–68 of 70 tested exceeded federal safety limits.
Some wells have concentrations as high as 73 ppm, but the state limit is currently 7 ppm. This means that the water is no longer safe for consumption, but the warning has come too late. The water and nearby agricultural crops are contaminated. The population has noticed an increase in cancer diagnoses. Over 25 women have reported unexpected miscarriages, with another six residents suffering from kidney failure.
Amazon told reporters at Rolling Stone that the nitrate levels “significantly predate AWS’ (Amazon Web Services) presence.” Others believe AWS is exacerbating existing problems significantly:
“When that tainted water moves through the data centers to absorb heat from the server systems, some of the water is evaporated, but the nitrates remain, increasing the concentration. That means that when the polluted water has moved through the data centers and back into the wastewater system, it’s even more contaminated, sometimes averaging as high as 56 ppm, eight times Oregon’s safety limit.”
Amazon has seven facilities in the area and plans to build an additional five. Rural communities have been lobbying for these data centers to boost their economy as tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions into these facilities. The S&P believes demand for mega data centers will double by 2030—AI is only in the early stages. But what will happen to the people who live near these centers, and do they pose a risk to the larger community? Unfortunately, this generation will be the test subjects.
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