Socrates Wins Again – Beats All the Forecasts & Mainstream Media


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Allan_Lichtman_the_Election_Nostradamus_feels_the_pressure_but_won_t_waver_o
2024_11_06_08_56_32_Allan_Lichtman_reaffirms_prediction_for_2024_presidential_election
Newsweek Kamala_Harris_Predicted_to_Win_By_Nearly_Every_Major_Forecaster_Newsweek

COMMENT: Wow. All the major people who have touted a Harris victory have never been wrong. Newsweek proclaimed every major forecaster gave it to Harris. Socrates has projected every single race without fail. I know. I bet them. Trump flipped Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in his favor, leading to the Republican’s victory. When will the world wake up and give you credit for creating a system that has beaten the odds every single time?

In Trump’s vocabulary. “Fantastic!”

Every Podcast should be giving you credit right now to help the world understand the truth.

PSC

Economist _Kamala_Harris_moves_ahead_just_in_our_final_election_forecast

REPLY: Socrates was the only one correct in 2016 and BRXIT. It functions WITHOUT polling – it’s economic based. Those in the media are mostly LEFTISTS so they always forecast what they want to see. Polls are not reliable because they sample people but who controls the sample? If you had conducted a poll only in Washington, DC, Trump would have had maybe 5%.

As I have said on Greg Hinter’s Podcast, the computer was showing the gap would be TOO BIG to fix this time. Trump’s reelection has brought him into a unique club, joining Democrat Grover Cleveland as one of only two U.S. presidents to serve nonconsecutive terms. Trump is the 45th president and now the 47th president.  Trump followed Cleveland’s path, which was held in office in 1885 and then again in 1893. The rare achievement highlights Trump’s sustained influence over a divided electorate and the discontent with the establishment. Cleveland may have been a Democrat, but he was also against members of his own party – the Silver Democrats.

Cleveland

Cleveland faced the same type of divided country, especially within his own party. He stood against the rise of Marxism as has Trump. The Democrats were then flooding the country with silver to inflate the nation. Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 was passed by the U.S. Congress to supplant the Bland-Allison Act of 1878. It not only required the U.S. government to purchase nearly twice as much silver as before, 4,500,000 ounces (130,000 kilograms) per month, but it also added substantially to the amount of money already in circulation. The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, named after John Sherman, was enacted in support of the advocates of the Free Silver Democrats. This Act created massive unsound finance that undermined the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves. Only after the Panic of 1893 did President Grover Cleveland call a special session of Congress and secure the repeal of the Act. His speech is recorded above.

coxey-his-army

This economic evolution of the real Long Depression (1873-1899) created a “depression” for many as unemployment rose yet monopolies grew as did corporate profits for many in the right field. It wiped out Philadelphia as the financial capital of the United States, and J.P. Morgan would move that to New York City with his innovation. From this highly volatile period, as we are entering today, what emerged from socialism/Marxism burst to the surface, producing Coxley’s Army, which marched upon Washington following the  Panic of 1893. It was this march that led to the idea of socialism, for FDR took most of the demands first argued by Coxley that government should create jobs for the unemployed. This led to the Antitrust Legislation and the Progressive Movement of Teddy Roosevelt.

Wizard-Oz
YellowBrickRoad

Coxley’s March became the subject of Lyman Baum’s Wizard of Oz – We’re off to see the wizard the wonderful wizard of Oz (Congress) following the Yellow Brick Road (gold standard & austerity). This economic event created serious change.

This entire series of legislation that set in motion the various financial Panics of the 1890s was inspired at least by Karl Marx (1818-1883). Despite the Sherman Silver Purchase Act being repealed, none of the other legislation was repealed, yet it was all the same inspiration.

marx

To this day, we still have the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, which Marx inspired, and the idea was based upon the observation that all of these start-up railroads were being purchased and consolidated. The politicians saw this as eliminating jobs, considering labor rather than economic efficiency. This entire rise of Marxism culminated in the passage of the Income Tax Act in 1909, rejecting the Founding Fathers’ wisdom of no direct taxation and adopting Karl Marx’s philosophy has undermined our nation, and the DOJ uses income tax to threaten journalists to kill or spin stories that they want or else!

Politicians found it worked to print to win elections that has given us our national debt, and they have pointed at the rich using Marxism to target the “rich.” This election was a referendum on Marxism that main stream media refuses to address.

Cleveland_home_Westland_Mansion

Ironically, I almost bought Westland Mansion, which was the home of Grover Cleveland in Princeton, New Jersey, where he spent his retirement from 1897 until his death in 1908.

Your Comments on Election


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

Obama Peace Prize

COMMENT #1: Marty, I know you have no respect for the Nobel Prize. But, man, if anyone deserves it, it has to be you for both the Peace Prize and Economics. I can’t wait for the WEC this weekend. They gave the Peace Prize to Obama, who wanted to invade Syria. I get it. They handed it to economists who are always wrong but say the words they want to hear. We need a real Prize of Accomplishment, not the politically correct version of the Nobel.

Gates Obama Medal

PS or the fake ones Obama gave Gates, disgracing every winner before him.

DF

All Gender Bathroom

COMMENT #2: Been standing in line for 2 1/2 hours to vote, and this sign on the bathroom door provided extra motivation to vote the right way.

M

White House Pride

COMMENT #3: I got into an argument with my sister that Kamala was for women’s rights and supported abortion. I told her Congress could not overrule the Supreme Court and asked where she is for women’s rights when transgenders are pushing women out of sports. We no longer talk. I think you said in one of your posts that only food tries to convince a fool that they are an idiot.

GL

Full Steam Ahead

Trump Victory Speech


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Harris v Trump Victory


Posted originally on Nov 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

2024 Presidential Election by Popular Vote

QUESTION: Marty, I have been using Socrates to bet on the elections. So far, so good.  What do you expect between a Harris vs Trump victory?

JF

ANSWER: It shows that a Harris victory would result in virtually World War III very fast. Putin knows his adversaries, and to placate his own Neocons, he would probably launch an all-out war to eliminate Ukraine, which he has not done. His Neocons have criticized him that he should have invaded Ukraine as the USA did to Iraq, and the war would have been over in 6 weeks. They have been screaming this is a war with NATO from the start – not Ukraine. That means the destruction of Kiev. Our computer goes flat-line on Ukraine, which seems to suggest that they will be wiped off the face of the earth. Zelensky is just lining his pockets and expects a particular flight to Miami when Ukraine loses. The Ukrainian people are fools to allow this traitor to take orders as Hezbollah does from Iran.

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Trump victory looks like a pause. There will still be a war, but NATO will instigate it. NATO is the mother-ship of Neocons. They are trying to expand into Asia because the plan is for the United Nations to become the sovereign government of the world, using war as the justification that only they can be peacemakers. The IMF and World Bank will be the monetary arm, and NATO will be the international Department of Defense. Why is NATO formed to protect Europe from the Communists of Khrischev’s days now seeking to take over Asia? Once every government agency grasps power, it always seeks to expand it.

BBC Trump Proof War

Harris = World War III instantly. Girls under 40 had better get pregnant if you don’t have kids, for the Democrats already are planning on drafting you to defend Zelensky. Tump = victory will try to keep us out of war and hopefully save at least half of Western civilization.

stalincountthevote

QUESTION #2: Can they rig this election for Harris?

SK

ANSWER #2: As Stalin said, those who count the vote decide everything. We do see a very big turnout. The real question is how much of that will be Biden’s illegal aliens. Can the illegal aliens alter the vote? It is certainly not out of the question since there are numerous millions. Some have already been caught voting.

COMMENT: Marty,

The erosion of western culture since the first wave of migrants swept through Italy and Germany in 2011 is now firmly rooted in Europe and the UK and there is no going back.

Private citizens to public servants, nobody holds the same levels of safety today with the Middle East nations rejection of assimilation.

The USA is not lagging far behind with the no boarders policy.

The question for the USA, will they be sent back?

Respectfully,

JH

Bloomberg_Terrorists_Crossing_the_US_Border

REPLY: Nobody knows for certain how many terrorists have entered through the border or how many are agents of foreign governments. The rumor has been that there will be domestic terror attacks, and this will be the excuse to impose digital IDs combined with the illegal aliens voting.

Categories:P

Violence Against Conservative Politicians – APL


Posted originally on Nov 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Anna_Paulina_Luna_The_Influencer_Who_Came_to_Congress_TIME

I have met Anna Paulina Luna (APL) and have been impressed by her policies and tenacity. Anna is receiving an unprecedented amount of hate for her conservative views. Her campaign manager was recently assaulted, and I fear that we can expect more violence against conservatives in the weeks to come if Trump secures a victory.

People assume all of Florida is bright red, but that is simply not true. My county, in particular, is a mix, potentially leaning blue. There is a good mix of Trump and Harris flags and an uptick of pro-Harris-Walz protests, although there was a poor turnout when Harris attempted to campaign here.

Anna Paulina Luna has become a target for the violent left. A few weeks ago, far-left supporters doxed Anna and revealed her home address. The St. Petersburg Police Department confirmed that Luna’s office received death threats a few months ago. ““My office has received a very serious shooting threat,” she said. “This division and hate campaign against Republicans is going to get someone killed. I will not be threatened, intimidated, or bow down to those using violence as a means to push their agenda. We will win,” Luna wrote.

Support_Anna_Paulina_Luna_for_Congress_Your_Voice_Matters

Luna, an Air Force veteran, has accused the radical left’s campaign of hate for the increase in violent threats. Most recently, her campaign manager was physically assaulted by one of her political rival’s supporters.

“A male Whitney Fox supporter shook hands with her father at the Clearwater early polling location before getting physical with my female campaign manager and her father,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.

Instead of offering protection or asking their radicalized supporters to back down, the demonization of Luna has continued. Chairwoman Suzan DelBene has attacked Luna’s heritage, accusing her of lying about her father’s Jewish heritage and accusing her grandfather of fighting for the Nazis.

We are witnessing neighbors turn against one another. Luna’s own neighbor posted her personal information on Facebook with the message: “I know where she lives if anyone is interested in sending her a love letter or … something. She dwells right around the corner.”

I worry that these threats will turn into actual acts of violence. If Trump secures a victory, the left will not accept defeat. They have been told that his supporters are “deplorable,” “Nazis,” and “garbage” who want to ruin what is left of this great nation.

Unrestricted Abortions under Kamala is Improbable


Posted originally on Nov 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

For the one-issue voters honing in on abortion – do you know that the president does not have the power to overturn the Supreme Court ruling? Abortion is now in the hands of individual states. Kamala Harris has promised to codify Roe v Wade into the US Constitution, but it’s not possible at this time.

Harris would need the full support of both chambers of Congress. She knows that she could never secure enough votes which is why she would like to eliminate the Senate filibuster to allow legislation to pass with a majority of 51 votes instead of 60. There are people on both sides who do not agree with ending the filibuster for various reasons.

Harris would need to end the Hyde Amendment that restricts Medicaid coverage for abortions. Low-income individuals are more prone to seek out abortion services. She would likely need Congress to approve funding for abortion services, as the federal government already funds Planned Parenthood.

Abortion Protests

Restricting state-level bans would also need to happen. The Bible Belt will ensure that their states have separate legislation in their state Constitutions that Harris would need to override.

Then, whatever is passed is simply not enough. For example, on our local ballot in Florida, they would like minors to have access to abortions without parental authorization. Children are unable to undergo medical procedures without parental authorization, but the far-left believes they have the ability to choose whether it’s right to terminate a pregnancy or switch their gender. Roe technically applies to 22 to 24 weeks of pregnancy, but individual journalists have shown that countless agencies have no problem performing abortions well into the third trimester.

Kamala Harris pledges to implement unrestricted abortion within her first 100 days of office. There is absolutely no way she could accomplish all of the above within a few months. It is simply not possible to mobilize public support for such a polarizing measure.

LEFT Planning Major Uprising if Trump Wins to Force Him To Call Out National Guard


Posted Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

This was the riot when Trump won in 2016. There is even concern that they might try to assassinate Trump if he wins. He better keep some private bodyguards. These Neocons have seized power and will not simply go quietly. There are schemes rumored that the Transition Integrity Project, dominated by the LEFTISTS, will stage a major riot in DC if Trump wins far worse than in 2017. They intend to force him to call out the National Guard and then claim that is proof he is a dictator. They plan to block out everything Trump tries to do to paralyze the country. There is no more America.

To the best of my knowledge, the updated U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) directive does not authorize federal troops to use lethal force against citizens, contrary to social media posts but the subtle changes include threat to national security in the revision of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, under the Posse Comitatus Actit is illegal for military personnel to use force against people in the United States unless for self-defense or where “under circumstances expressly authorized by the Constitution or Act of Congress.” The National Guard is the exception. If the Civil War broke out, chances are nobody would pay attention to this statute, but it could be argued that they were acting in self-defense.

  1. Focus of the 2016 Version

The 2016 version of the directive did not mention the use of lethal force. Instead, it focused on:

  • Civil liberties protections: Ensuring strict oversight for operations involving U.S. citizens.
  • Intelligence collection restrictions: Limiting when and how U.S. person’s information (USPI) could be collected.
  • Privacy safeguards: Protecting privacy rights and preventing unauthorized data collection.

The 2016 directive centered around intelligence gathering, with no mention of lethal force

  1. New Provisions in the 2024 Version

The 2024 update introduces a dramatic shift, particularly regarding domestic operations. Section 3.3.a.(2)(c) now explicitly permits lethal force in cases of imminent threats or national security emergencies, provided the action complies with legal oversight, specifically DoDD 5210.56, which governs the use of deadly force by DoD personnel.

Are Betting Odds Better than Polls?


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Betting_Odds 2016

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for being so honest. I like how you separate your opinion from the computer. My question is simple. Do you give credence to the betting odds being more accurate than the polls?

See you next week

Frank

Newsweek Madam President Hillary Clinton R

ANSWER: The polls are often wrong, and the betting odds do not seem much better. In 2016, the odds of a Hillary victory were 88% compared to 13% for Trump. Our computer called it correctly, as was the case with BREXIT. With over 70 million in early voting, the computer will be correct on the turnout.

More voters (154.6 million) turned out for the presidential election in 2020 than in 2016 (137.5 million), the most significant increase between consecutive presidential elections since record-keeping began in 1964. The problem with the 2020 election was the scare tactics using COVID. The mail-in ballots were 65,642,049. The combined early voting and mail-in during 2016 was only 12.6 million. With early voting exceeding 70 million, this is by far the largest turnout for early voting in history.

VoterTurnout Y Chart 2024

Home Sales Reach 14-Year Low in the US


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

RealEstate

The home buying frenzy seen during the pandemic years has ended. We are no longer in a seller’s market as the tides have shifted. The National Association of Realtors reported that home sales in the US slowed to a 14-year low this September.

Sales declined 3.5% on an annual basis. Existing homes declined 1% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million on an annual basis. Home sales have not been this slow in the US since October 2010 when the housing market was recovering from the real estate crash.

Home prices are continuing to increase, rising for the 15th consecutive month. The median home price in America is 3% higher than one year ago at $404,500. The higher average home price has left many would-be buyers out of the market. First-time buyers accounted for only 26% of homes sold last month, but historically, they usually compose about 40% of all sales. Home prices have increased 49% in the past five years since the pandemic.

Inventory has been increasing with 1.39 million available properties, an astounding 23% increase from September 2023.

Mortgage rates on the 30-year reached their highest level in three months but remain well below last year’s high of around 8%

I forecast that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

The October Jobs Report – USA


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Jobs

The job market is cooling across America, slowing to a pace not seen since late 2020 during COVID lockdowns. Now, one must remember that natural disasters decimated numerous states. Yet, I tend to look at two things – public sector growth and manufacturing.

Unemployment stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers held steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics revised their calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000 and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in that two-month period.

The US has been desperate to revive its manufacturing sector. The Biden-Harris Administration had promised to create one million new manufacturing jobs in 2024, but 10 months of data later, and it seems not a single position was created. The BLS admitted that manufacturing jobs fell by 577,000 since March 2022. In October, the sector loss 49,000, largely attributed to the Boeing strike.

1 Big Government

So, America is struggling to produce goods to sell. In the meantime, the federal government bulked up the public sector by 40,000 jobs. Those are 40,000 employees relying on taxpayer funds and pensions in a sector that only SUBTRACTS from GDP. Biden and Harris have increased the public sector by about 43,000 positions on average every month for the past 12 months.

The first release of data is always the most optimistic. The country is clearly on the wrong track as we are endlessly spending money on big government while the private sector is weakening.