Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish currency has lost more than a third of its value against the dollar. As the currency declines, imports rise in cost since they are denominated in foreign currency.  This adds to the inflation problem domestically. Among other things, the sharp criticism of Erdoğan in the markets has cast doubt on the independence of the central bank. In September, it raised its key interest rate from 17.75 to 24 percent in the fight against inflation without success. This too adds to inflation.

There are people starting to look at tax cuts in selected areas to compensate for the crisis in hyperinflation. It is an interesting proposal but Erdoğan is worried about a real coup this time.

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

I bought ‘The World Real Estate Report’ at the end of 2016. It stated that Australian real estate was going to fall after the first quarter (March) in 2016. The property prices in Melbourne (where I live) continued to rise in April 2016 so I sent an email to Socrates Support asking them when real estate should peak. I received the reply below, which stated that the peak was either in for global real estate or the latest by the end of the first quarter 2017.

Anyway, since I owned a tiny house in Melbourne, I was facing a difficult decision if I should sell or not since it would be impossible to buy back in if the prices continued to go up.

I have been reading your blog daily since 2012, and I have read all of your forecasts being correct (eg. the Dow continuing to go up, US Index going up, Brexit, Trump winning). I also bought your Gold report in 2014 and watched gold bottom (Dec 2015) correctly for the date and price on the first benchmark, truly an unbelievable forecast.

Based on your track record I decided to sell my property at the end of the first quarter (March 2017), for which I received a fantastic price.

I’m happy to inform you that prices have been falling since the 3rd quarter of 2017.

I just wanted to congratulate you on another correct forecast.

REPLY: We all need a place to live. Governments are attacking real estate thinking it is too high and they need to make it more affordable for others to buy. They fail to understand that when they do that, the wipe out the savings dor retirement for others. Raising taxes to support government pensions is morally wrong and economically a disaster. There really should be some qualification to be a politician who them plays with people’s lives

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; When you were here last giving lectures in Poland, you said that we should leave the EU, retain our currency, and focus of your ties to the United States and Asia. You said if we did that, Poland would be one of the most imp[ortant economies in Europe. Have you updated that forecast at all?

Thank you

It was a tremendous honor to shake your hand in Warsaw.

JF

ANSWER: Poland is and will remain at the center of economic growth within Europe and it will still experience increasing political influence. Poland’s population won’t decline as much as those of the other major European economies and that is critical moving forward economically. Poland is also the most prosperous European state on Russia’s western border. That will mean that it will expand its position as a regional leader with political and economic prestige.

The Zloty has strengthened against the dollar and the Euro. The critical time where Poland may see this break with the EU could come in 2020.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I had always heard that Kennedy made a fortune on Scotch. My question is, where they booze runners during the Prohibition?

Thank you

GR

ANSWER: No. But they actually used Roosevelt to secure that lucrative import trade of Scotch – my favorite drink. Joe Kennedy traveled to London in 1934 on the steam-driven ocean liner, the SS Europa. While he brought his wife with him he also brought James Roosevelt (1907 – 1991), the American president’s oldest son. The trip was portrayed as a please vacation, but bringing the President’s son was the clear signal it was not a vacation.

Kennedy’s main prize would be to gain the British rights to send Scotch whiskey, gin, and other imported liquors. He knew based upon inside information that Prohibition would be ended. Joe brought the president’s 25-year-old son to help organize a private visit with Winston Churchill.  He used Roosevelt’s son to get that contract. The deal paid off and Joe got the private meeting with Churchill and visited him at Churchill’s Chartwell home.

So you see, political inside favors have been going on a very long time. James Roosevelt was closely linked with Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. Many of James Roosevelt’s controversial business ventures were indeed aided by Kennedy. Jame’s dealings were often clouded. In fact, Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau even threatened to resign unless FDR forced James to leave a questionable company which became known as the National Grain Yeast Corp. affair (1933–35), which was believed to be just a front for bootlegging. It was James Roosevelt who lobbied his father to make Kennedy the ambassador to the United Kingdom.

James was a shading type of character in the eyes of many. Later on, during July 1938, there were allegations that he had used his political position to steer lucrative business to his insurance firm. He was then forced to publish his income tax returns and denied these allegations in an NBC broadcast and an interview in Collier’s magazine. This became known as the Jimmy’s Got It affair after Alva Johnston’s reportage in the Saturday Evening Post. Roosevelt resigned from his White House position in November 1938. The press was often highlighting how rich Jimmy was becoming when his father was a Socialist

The Bundesbank has come out warning that there is a German pension crisis. They have proposed that states raise the pension tax and that they should gradually increase the retirement age because the life
expectancy in the future has risen. Central Bank President, Jens Weidmann, has stated that he is generally in favor of raising the statutory retirement age beyond 67 years.

We must understand that the ECB policy of “stimulating” the economy with negative interest rates has bankrupted state pension plans. This theory that lowering interest rates to get people to borrow and thus manipulate demand higher has NEVER been proven to have ever worked. The consequence of what we now face is a major pension crisis that is undermining the future of Western economies

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really encountered an insane goldbug who claimed you were paid off by the gold cartel to keep the price down. These people cannot open their eyes and see anything but gold or bitcoin. Then they argue the age of knowledge and bitcoin will become the new reserve currency. You really have to wonder if these people are on drugs. Will you be doing a gold report soon? Is it still a viable option for some portion of wealth in the future. Bitcoin seems to depend entirely upon a power grid. I was traveling back to the States and was actually asked if I had cryptocurrency. I said no. What is all that about?

IK

ANSWER: Yes we will be doing a gold report soon. Yes, these people are insane. Why would the gold cartel want to suppress gold prices? They claim to force people to sell their gold at cheap prices. But the annual production of new gold is about 3150 tons as of 2017. There are 32,150.75 troy ounces per metric ton. That means the annual production during 2017 was 101,274,862.5 troy ounces. That is a lot of new gold coming to the market every year. That is far more than small investors would be dumping. You really think they would suppress the gold price to force small investors to sell say even 10 million ounces when they mine more than 100 million annually? That is really just sophistry and it is a shame people would even believe such nonsense.

I really cannot imagine that any government would surrender power to Bitcoin. Come on. Spain is criminally prosecuting Catalonia politicians for simply advocating a democratic vote to separate from Spain. But governments will surrender their power to Bitcoin? The dollar is not even the RESERVE CURRENCY by choice. The USA has been trying to encourage competition and advocated the creation of the Euro back at the Plaza Accord in 1985. The USA always wants a cheaper dollar to sell more goods overseas to create in theory domestic jobs. Even Trump advocates that position of a cheaper dollar. Only a fool would believe that governments will lay down their power simply because you ask them to. Open any history book. Power shifts NEVER come involving government without major uprisings. Sorry, they will NEVER sit on their hand and watch their power evaporate. They will only surrender power during revolutions for they will kick and scream every step of the way.

As far as cryptocurrency declarations, they are beginning to look at anything that they can confiscate that is more than $10,000 when traveling calling it all cash. Italy confiscated bonds a man had in a briefcase on his way to Switzerland. It was not “cash” but they are calling anything that can be converted or sold as “cash” because they are desperate. I wrote about those proposed regulations last year.

During August, gold fell to 1162.70 intraday. The channel support rests at 1144.03. Gold open interest is about 488,000 contracts which amount to almost $600 million. That compares to the production in 2017 valued at $121.5 billion. The total market capitalization of the US share market alone is about $30 trillion. The US National Debt is about $20 trillion. Total world sovereign debt is closer to $250 trillion. Gold is simply not a big enough market to displace everything of value out there. It is one component that will rise in value. But gold will NEVER replace the dollar and governments will NEVER return to any commodity standard.

The true wealth of every nation is its people and their productive capacity. China, Japan, and Germany, all rose to be major economies with no gold reserves. Russia, which had all the resources, moved from communism to an oligarchy and that prevented its economy from exploding as was the case in China. All the gold, diamonds, and oil, did not propel Russia to #2 economy. It is the people that create wealth – not merely resources. Forget returning to any commodity based currency. It does not work any more than austerity works in Europe.