The Sixth Wave


Sixth-WaveECM

QUESTION: Marty; You do realize you correctly forecast the takeover boom and the reversal in trend in 1985 followed by the peak of Japan to the day and the fall of communism with your 1989.95 peak in the ECM. Then with 1998.55 you forecast the collapse of Russia and were named hedge fund manager of the year. They threw your ass in contempt for that one. Then they called 2007.15 peaking the peak in the Schiller real estate index to the day Armstrong’s Revenge. Then 2015.75 you declared it was the peak in government and you said 8.6 month into this cycle it would be the EU. You were the only one who has ever done this and you yourself wondered if the computer would be right with BREXIT or would they rig the game. Your forecast for the War Cycle picked Ukraine before it happened and your political model forecast the rise of anti-establishment for 2016. What are they going to do to you now with the demise of the EU? Will they ever listen? The press should be knocking down your door. The fact that they are not is indicative of their own corruption. Is it possible they will simply never listen?

ANSWER: I would like to think they would listen to a viable solution. It would be nice to take that next step up in knowledge as we did 300 years ago during the Age of Enlightenment. Cyclically, the time is right. We are due on the 309.6-year wave. However, this is also the sixth wave and things are fractal. My fear is that government will try to cling to power and bring us into a Dark Age.

This is the climax between good and evil so to speak. These people have to stop. They are risking it all.

The Three Faces of Inflation – When is Real – Real?


3FACESn of Inflation

QUESTION:

Hi Marty,
Will future rate hikes from the Fed cause banks to move more money out of the Fed and into the commercial banking system, creating inflation?
Thanks Jack

Fed Excess ReservesANSWER: No. Future inflation will not be demand driven, but asset driven. Retail participation, both in the States and from Europe, in the US share market is at historic lows. This is why the market cannot crash. Where’s the bubble? As long as the Fed continues this crazy policy of accommodating the bankers by paying for excess reserve deposits, banks will continue to hoard. The rate was 0.25% and the Fed raised the rate to 0.5%. This is really stupid. It is why there has been no inflation from Quantitative Easing.

All of these gurus assumed that the Fed’s balance sheet would cause huge inflation because they just read headlines and do not comprehend how the system really works. Their assumption was that all this money would spark inflation, which they only see, and the 1970s demand inflation into 1980. The money never made it to the people. The bankers were paid to HOARD that cash, which shows that the Fed is really insane.

If the Fed honestly wants to “stimulate,” it should eliminate paying interest on excess reserves. Then the banks will take that money and have to earn something the good old fashion way – by lending it out. That is the only way you can see “demand” inflation. Otherwise, we are looking at asset inflation to protect money value instead of inflation spiraling out of consumer demand.

Currency inflation is when the currency declines so the assets rise in proportion. This is not actually a gain in real terms; rather it is how tangible assets act as a hedge against government. You will often hear gold will soar to $10,000. The question would be that type of rally would be profitless. Your monthly rent on a condo would probably be $10,000. Everything is relative.

BREXIT – One of Four All Showing Anti-Establishment


2016-PresElection

 

Many comments and emails are pouring in that our model correctly forecast BREXIT and years in advance. Here is the picture for the next big chaos period – the US Presidential Election in November.  You can see that 3 out of 4 models show a Republican victory. Two of these show 60%+, which is unheard of.  What we have just seen in BREXIT is a prelude to the US election – very anti-establishment, anti-immigration, and fed up with stagnant wages thanks to rising taxation.

Tony Blair’s comment were very elitist saying that the people really are stupid and the government should not rush to leave. He says it is too complex to split, but it is also too fix. He just doesn’t get it. People want REAL change and are tired of listening how stupid they are.

 

Pres-Turnout

We also saw the biggest turnout in Britain ever for such an event. Trump has already gotten more votes in the primary than any Republican candidate in history. This is reflecting what is coming. We should also see a record turnout in November in the US elections.

President-3rdParty

 

BREXIT was the first of four major elections that our computer has been projecting a strong anti-establishment uprising building on a global scale. Our targets have been focused on 2016.

 

IBEUBP-Y 5-27-2016

 

ECM-EuroThe peak in the euro against the British pound was 1985. The day of the low in the pound was February 26th, 1985 (1985.156). Even the Pi cycle from that date was 2016.556 or July 22, 2016.

Our model on the European Union projected the high in 2004 and its collapse into 2008 when the euro peaked over 160 to the dollar. Now we are in. This raises the potential of the EU becoming extinct by 2029.

What lies ahead is going to be amazing. Nevertheless, this is all set in motion by the incompetence of government intermixed with their pervasive corruption.

Rebbelions & the Public v Private Waves


ECM #145 1413.75 (51.6) Private Wave

QUESTION:

Sir,

Pondering the patterns that you have found in history, I have been mulling over the crossroads that lie in front of us in the next few years. You noted that sovereign debt crises occur about every 86 years or so. You also noted that civil disturbance goes hand in hand with those events. You also noted that it cycles between government/public to private and private to government/public. Am I understanding correctly that the civil disturbance that occurs when it flips between government/public to private is more intense than when it flips from private to government/public?

Thanks for all you do and see you in Nov

DK

ECM #146 1465.35 (51.6) Private Wave

ANSWER: Yes. This is because government is a single entity. They will fight against the people to retain power. Make no mistake about it, government will always massacre the people to retain power. All such events in history unfold when the people seek to overturn tyranny. However, there are rebellions even during a Public Wave but these tend to be continuations of a grievance from the previous wave. There were 69 years between the two big English tax rebellions of 1381 and 1450. They do tend to be more intense during Private Waves. You will notice that in a Private Wave then tend to come early whereas in a Public wave then come late and typically spill over. This is because the rebellion aspect is really a separate function of the War Cycle. Therefore, it is an overlap that produces the intensity. Currently, that turned up in 2014.

Political wisdom over the centuries was purchased with the blood and bitter experience of generations upon generations. In England when the King had no right to tax the people. They had to consent and that was the reason to call Parliament to consent to taxation. The first tax revolt was the Wat Tyler’s Rebellion, also known as the Peasants’ Revolt, was a tax rebellion following the Black Death as a result of high taxes to fund the war against France (Hundred Years War). This took place beginning in May and ended in a massacre by November, 1381. Then there was William (Jack) Cade (? – 7/12/1450) who led a tax rebellion which took place in May 1450 which was the subject of Shakespeare’s play of Henry VI in which he wrote his famous passage: “The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” (King Henry VI, part II, Act IV, Scene 2, Line 72). The lawyers were not “lawyers” as we see them today. The king was the only person allowed to have a lawyer, so they were really prosecutors taking people’s property and imprisoning them for profit.

In France, there was the French Revolution in 1792 over taxation, but there was also a rebellion in 1851. But the first tax rebellion in France was when King John was captured by the English in September 1356. King John was transported to London in April 1357. He was compelled to surrender most of southern France to the English. On October 9th, 1360, John was released to raise the balance of the ransom, while hostages took his place that included his own son. When John’s son escaped, John had little choice and returned to England as a prisoner on his own volition where he died.

In 1358, we find the first tax uprising known as “Jacquerie” because the nobility had called all peasants “Jacque” and the demands for taxes were now outrageous. Taxes were even demanded to rebuild castles of the nobility. The English had plundered the country and these demands led finally to a uprising on May 21st, 1358. The peasants destroyed numerous castles in response and indeed massacred all inhabitants. With the King captured, confusion reigned and the nation was plunged into civil war. The peasants were eventually defeated and they were themselves massacred.

Even in China, the minister Chao Cuo (? – 154BC) under the previous emperor Ching-ti (Liu Ch’i)(157-141BC), earned the hatred of other ministers after he introduced 30 new laws. The outrage was so intense; he was dragged out and executed in his judicial robes in the town marketplace. The abuse of the rule of law knows no bounds. When Edward I (1272-1307) returned to England in 1289, he was confronted by corrupt judges who had been bribed by special interests and dismissed them summarily. Then in 1290, Edward I seized all the property of the Jews and expelled them from England.  Kings, dictators, and professional political classes, have always exploited the rule of law for their personal gain.

Massacres of the people in a revolt against government exist throughout history. We should expect our modern governments will act in the very same manner. They are right now arming themselves and they have converted the police forces into military domestic units.

Now The Losers Want a 2nd Referendum To Overturn BREXIT


A petition has circulated gained they claim 1 million signatures to overturn BREXIT and hold a second referendum. Of course they will do a far better job at rigging this one if it goes through. Such people deserve what they petition for and should surrender the pound and the Queen. They have zero idea of what is coming from Brussels but this is playing into the hands of Cameron no doubt and the rest of the establishment. They assume government will survive. They are clueless that Brussels will collapse as we move forward.

Dow – Down & Dirty?


DJIND-W 6-25-2016

The Dow has been bouncing off the Reversals as well. Despite being above 17800, it would fail to close above that. The question becomes WHEN will the Dow breakout to test new highs with the next target zone in the 21,000 to 23,000 area? With the closing on Friday below the first Minor Weekly Bearish at 17434, the Dow should move a bit lower now to test the 17120 level. We have a serious gap there after both technically and on our Reversal system. We can yet see a thrust to test the 15000 zone before turning back up again. The numbers tell us when the big moves will come. But we need not move down that far. We can hold technically the 16900 level, fail to elect any reversals, and the flip back up.

The key to all the markets is CONFIDENCE. We are witnessing a global revolution against career politicians. BREXIT is the first of four critical elections we have been warning about. There is no real chance of a major stock market crash because retail participation (both domestic and foreign) is at historic lows. There is no retail market that would panic. The “professionals” are baffled trying to figure this mess out watching the Fed and reading headlines. More hedge funds are closing because performance is collapsing. Opinion really drives the bulk of investment and nobody is getting this right because there is nobody who has ever lived during such a period. Those in search of guru will lost everything. The ONLY way to trade this mess is DISPASSIONATELY and just go by the numbers. The market is the only one that is never wrong.

Sling-Shot Move

 

Sling-Shot-RThe slingshot is coming. These four elections will change the perspective of government for the next few decades. Those in power will fight back tooth and nail. You can see it. Republican Elite hate Trump just as the Democratic Elite hated Bernie. Both represented upsetting the apple cart. Nevertheless, we are looking at a serious issue here. The slingshot comes WHEN everyone realizes the future will not be anything they dreamed of. The negative interest rates are destroying pension funds, Central banks have lost control and credibility, and socialism is dying very hard because government is consuming the bulk to fund its own pensions. The slingshot comes when people realize governments are collapsing. Then there will be the mad rush into all private assets.

The Impact of BREXIT on the EU


Euro-Symbol

The true impact, on Britain and on Europe, will start to become visible rather quickly.  It is absurd to think that anything has to change in respect to trade between the EU and Britain. What this  means is really that Britain will not be subservient to Brussels and would be in the same position as the United States. However, our sources are telling us that the EU will try to punish Britain, as they did the Greeks, for having the audacity to reject their superiority. This may become more of a nasty divorce where when a couple moved in together the wife hated his lucky lazy-boy to watch games. In divorce, it will cost him $50,000 in legal fees to get the lazy-boy back that she threatened to throw out many times. NATO is nothing without Britain. Indeed, Europe is incapable of defending itself without Britain and the USA.

The Scottish are threatening to hold their own referendum to separate from the UK and remain in the EU. That too is insanity. Sottish independence is one thing. To remain in the EU is to surrender their independence and become subservient to Brussels. Ireland wants a referendum to unite North and South. That will probably only result in civil war. Britain should step out and let them duke it out.

When the markets crash in Europe as Brussels tries to outlaw short selling to prevent markets to go against the politicians, this means that Britain will remain as the place to do business and Euro will suffer. The banks were just doing what the establishment told them to do. The threats that banks would leave makes no sense whatsoever.

Meanwhile. the arrogance and threats of Obama who told the Brits back in April they had to go “to the back of the queue” and would not be able to strike a trade deal with America “any time soon” if it leaves the European Union, has shown just what politicians have become – buffoons who will say anything to win the moment. Now Obama said: “The people of the United Kingdom have spoken, and we respect their decision. The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom is enduring, and the United Kingdom’s membership in NATO remains a vital cornerstone of U.S. foreign, security, and economic policy.” He continued: “The United Kingdom and the European Union will remain indispensable partners of the United States even as they begin negotiating their ongoing relationship to ensure continued stability, security, and prosperity for Europe, Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the world.”

Vice President Joe Biden said: “I must say we had looked for a different outcome. We would have preferred a different outcome … but the United States has a long-standing friendship with the United Kingdom and that very special bond will endure.”

So much for go to the bank of the queue. There are trade agreements already in place with Britain. Nothing new needs to be negotiated.

The Contagion Begins


 

3-FOREX

Brussels will try to now punish Britain as they punished the Greeks for daring to vote against them. Our sources are already saying the attitude behind the curtain is turning nasty as in how dare those “limies” vote to leave. The derogatory remains off camera are telling. Brussels will try to be hard on the Brits because there are already movements to enter referendums to leave the EU surfacing in the Netherlands, France and the Northern League in Italy. Indeed, the Brits just slapped the face of those elitists in Brussels who refuse to see they are ever wrong. It is always everyone else’ fault. The entire EU project has gone way too far. It is no longer about trade – it is an autocratic anti-democratic establishment hell bent on federalizing Europe.

The Panic has Subsided – Reality Returns – BREXIT Wins


BREXIT On Schedule

 

Euro SinkingExactly on our cyclical model, the UK votes to leave the EU in historic referendum after 43 years (half 8.6) 52% to 48%. David Cameron has announced he will resign as prime minister in October and all one can say is good reddens, despite the fact that 84 Eurosceptic Tory MPs signed a letter calling on David Cameron to continue as prime minister whatever the result of the referendum. That was just a joke for Cameron betrayed his own country. It would have been “inconceivable” that Cameron could remain as prime minister after making the biggest political decision of his life that has been proven spectacularly wrong.

The Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said that voters have “spoken clearly” and the government’s job is to “get on with that decision, protecting the economy and doing all we can to get the best outcome for Britain.” This is the best decision for Britain for otherwise it will be dragged down by Brussels which has become the sinking Titanic. The attempt by Brussels to extinguish democracy with its arrogant attitude that the elite just know better will now begin to set in throughout Europe. Already, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi tweeted: “We have to change (the EU) to make it more human and more just, but Europe is our home, it’s our future.”

The pound fell to its lowest level in 31 years on exaggerated panic. Europe is nothing without Britain and NATO will certain not change. It has been Britain which provides the military backbone for Europe. This is merely about the UK gaining its independence. The United States would NEVER allow its laws to be written in a dictatorial manner by the United States.

ScotlandPNew-20Pounds

Ann-Medal-Union-Scotland - 2Nigel Farage told supporters that June 23 should now go down as “our independence day” for Britain. The said statement of the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland contributed significantly to the Remain vote across the UK and the Scottish people “see their future as part of the EU” so going forward, we can yet see Scotland leave the UK but this time it will quickly discover that the EU is crumbling. The Act of Union that formed the UK was under Queen Ann in 1707. Applying the 309.6 year cycle brings us to 2016.6. Therefore, we may see indeed an independent Scotland, but it will soon find out it joined the sinking ship. Meanwhile, in Ireland, Sinn Fein said Britain’s vote to leave the EU has “very significant implications” for Ireland, and it called for a referendum on a united Ireland.

EU ExitOf course there are those in denial. Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern warned Britain’s exit would harm the other nations. Nonetheless, “I do not fear a domino effect,” which our model does show will unfold. Kern continued: “Europe will lose status and significance in the world because of Britain’s step. The long-term economic effects will also be felt for some time.” Meanwhile, the Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas said Europe must “work hard” to protect the EU’s unity and that Britain’s departure was a “great loss”. What is being overlooked is Article 50 of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty which effectively is the EU exit button. – it allows a country to start formally withdrawing from the European Union. Once Britain has activated this clause, it has two years to negotiate its departure with the remaining 27 members of the bloc. Among the terms to be discussed include: trade tariffs and freedom of movement.

EU Wants to Charge Social Security Taxes on Robots As If They Were People?


Tosihba-robot-chihira

Japan’s Toshiba <6502.T> robot has taken on human form and visitors to the world’s biggest travel show in March were greeted by a lifelike robot. Under new proposed European legislation clearly intended to stop technology advancement, the growing army of robot workers are to be classed as “electronic persons” and their owners would then be liable to paying social security for them. This is an example of how nuts Brussels has become from regulating cow farts to now wanting to impose the same tax system to robots for their retirement?