Posted originally on Oct 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Middle East is far more complicated than the Western Media reports. Quietly, Saudi Arabia and Jordan support Israel, for they see Iran as a threat even to their sovereignty despite their populations often taking the opposite position. Iran is Shite and maintains that the religion should rule, not kings. If Iran were taken down, they would quietly be celebrating.
As the world waits for Israel’s response to Iran, the two main targets remain their nuclear facilities and their energy production. The problem with the nuclear facilities is that Iran has placed them deep under the ground. Israel lacks bunker-type weapons, but the US has such weapons. Suppose they lent them to Israel to attack the underground facilities in Iran. In that case, that will most likely divide the region and perhaps result in China and Russia coming into the area.
Attacking Iran’s oil facilities would send oil rising. The Biden Administration does NOT want that to happen before the election. Hence, we have had this paused response from Israel. Before the election, it would seem that the only major target would be nuclear development. However, this would not terminate their capability and could accelerate their move to nuclear capability.
The Biden Administration has allowed more than 1,000 terrorists to enter the country. As we head into October 7th, we should expect terrorist attacks domestically inside the USA, and Israel will be under pressure to take some action by Monday 7th – the 1st anniversary of the Hammas attack.
Posted originally on Oct 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, can you give me an update on Iran? Your target for war was October. Here it is, October first, no less. Do you still see the war extending into 2027?
ANSWER: For the next two weeks, this should intensify. This will escalate into 2027, and I do not see a diplomatic solution as possible. This is all just coming to a head. Iran is moving into its peak due in 2027. The reorganization appears to be coming by mid-2031.
The computer projected October in both Iran and Israel, so beware that volatility will rise in December/January when the halfway mark of this Iran ECM cycle is reached heading into 2027. The first quarter of 2025 does not look very good globally. We will address this at the WEC. There will be streaming. Over 40 countries have already signed up, which exceeds our normal 37 countries for the WEC.
The real question is whether Iran has yielded to the Arab world. Or has Iran gotten approval from Russia because Europe wants World War III? Even the Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs has called for a harder line on Russia and keeps up the nonsense that Russia is afraid of NATO and will not attack in the traditional sense.
Posted originally on the CTH on October 1, 2024 | Sundance
ran has fired over 200 missiles into Israel in a retaliatory attack after Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Hamas, including assassinations of top commanders. The ballistic missiles are reported to have been launched from inside Iran.
U.S. and Israeli Iron Dome counter measures were deployed along with a dozen interceptors fired from U.S. warships located in the Mediterranean. However, multiple strikes were reported within Israel. The war against Hamas has escalated significantly.
Israel has vowed to hit back against the direct attack from Iran. In a video statement, Israel Defense Forces Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the “attack will have consequences.” He added: “We have plans. We will act at the time and place of our choosing.”
(Via Politico) – Iran launched a ballistic missile attack targeting Israel on Tuesday as tensions between the two long-time foes ratchet up in the Middle East.
The Israel Defense Forces said on Telegram that “missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel” and ordered Israeli civilians to obey air raid sirens and shelter in place. “The IDF is doing and will do everything necessary to protect the civilians of the State of Israel,” the statement said.
[…] Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel, according to national security adviser Jake Sullivan at a Tuesday White House briefing after the attacks. It was not clear if any of them successfully hit their targets and there were not immediate reports of Israeli casualties.
Iran’s strike was in part thwarted by two American guided missile destroyers in the Mediterranean, which fired a dozen interceptors to knock down Iranian missiles Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters on Tuesday. As far as where the ballistic missiles came from, Ryder said the military is still studying the attack and its fallout, but the early assessment was that all of the missiles were fired from inside Iran. (read more)
Posted originally on Sep 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have listened to your geopolitical analysis for the past couple of years. You have recently said that Putin instructed Iran to “sit on its hands.” Nobody else has ever said provided that account. Here, the Telegraph has reported that Hezbollah urged Iran to attack Israel, but it refused because the “timing isn’t right”, two Israeli officials have said. People have told me that your sources are superior to everyone. I was told that even Margaret Thatch asked you if you had information on some underground project Russia was constructing when even MI6 could not find out. Others said they put you in contempt of court because you knew too much.
I appreciate your honesty in a world that is shrouded in darkness.
FD
ANSWER: Look, when the West lied to Putin with the Minsk Agreement, they played him for a fool. They have lost all credibility now, and I do not know if it is ever possible to have a negotiated settlement. Putin told Iran to sit on its hands and NOT take the bait as he did in Ukraine. The time will come, but do it on their terms, not those of the Neocons.
I have stated that Turkey will be the nation to destabilize NATO after numerous conflicts within the bloc. Turkey then became the first member nation of NATO to join the BRICS alliance with Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan would now like to form an alliance with other Arab nations to counteract Israel.
Erdogan and Fattah al-Sisi met for the first time in 12 years last week to discuss Israel’s growing power in the Middle East. Former foes are banning together against a common opponent. Syria and Turkey have had difficulties with diplomacy ever since the 2011 Syrian civil war, but Erdogan said he’s speak to al-Assad “any time.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has accused Erdogan of supporting Hamas. “Erdogan continues to throw the Turkish people into the fire of hatred and violence for his friends from Hamas. Today, he calls on the Islamic countries to form an alliance against the State of Israel. This is incitement,” the minister posted on X. “Israel defends its borders and its citizens against the murderers of Hamas and the Shiite axis of evil led by Iran. Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood have been working together with Iran for years to stamp out the moderate Arab regimes in the Middle East,” he continued. “It is better for Erdogan to shut up and be ashamed.”
An alliance against Israel is an alliance against the West as all Western nations and NATO have pledged unwavering support for Israel, their last stronghold in the Middle East. So not only is Turkey unsettling NATO by supporting Russia, but now he is attempting to form a bloc that is in direct opposition of Israel.
Erdogan’s dream was to resurrect the Ottoman Empire, which ended when it was defeated and dissolved in 1908—1922. Now, with the economic conditions being deplorable, Erdogan has found an external enemy that can be used to build Turkey’s power in the Middle East. The nation already boasts the largest army in the region and has been carefully forming alliances against the West on two war fronts.
Posted originally on Sep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Bank of Canada voted to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Inflation has allegedly slowed to 2.5% as of July, and Governor Tiff Macklem said that was reason enough to drop rates to attract investment.
“If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate,” Governor Tiff Macklem said in a prepared opening statement. Canada’s GDP grew at a faster rate than anticipated during Q2 after growing 2.1% vs the 1.8% forecast. Unemployment remains high at around 6.4%.
The bank acknowledges that these cuts will not impact the housing market. “With the share of CPI components growing above 3% now around its historical norm, there is little evidence of broad-based price pressures. But shelter price inflation is still too high. It remains the biggest contributor to overall inflation, despite some early signs of easing.”
Will these rate cuts cause any major changes in Canada’s economy? Absolutely not. In 2016 under the Liberal government, the total private debt of the Canadian public exceeded the total national GDP for the first time in history after reaching 100.7%. Canada’s national debt spiked to $1.501 billion USD in March of 2024, a $1.423.3 billion USD increase from March 2023. Gross debt was 117.2% of GDP in 2021, above pre-pandemic levels at 105.6^ in 2019. Half of Canada’s debt comes from the federal government while the other half is from provinces and local governments who have been given the green light to continue spending.
Canada is deeply indebted and now ranks the third-highest nation in terms of household debt in the world. I reported in July how household debt exceeded 100% of GDP with no signs of slowing under the Trudeau Administration that recklessly spends with no end in sight. Switzerland and Australia are the only nations exceeding Canada’s debt levels. Government debt has SOARED in recent years, now exceeding C$1,139.98. This figure was only C$721.36 billion in 2020 before Trudeau used the pandemic as an excuse to bulk up social programs.
The population of Canada has exploded to the highest level in history thanks to open border policies. Canada, like all the other Build Back Better nations, has the funds to support every foreign interest and war while placing their citizens last. Rate cuts can do absolutely nothing when the government is borrowing against future generations.
Posted originally on May 22, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
There is something really wrong at the International Criminal Court. It has been taken over by the Neocons and is violating international law and its own jurisdiction. I had dinner with the ICC, and they were appalled at what was done to me. They expressed how they “wished” they could have charged the judges and prosecutors as well as politicians involved and viewed me as a whistleblower against the bankers and Neocons. I had that dinner, I believe, back in 2012. They said they LACKED THE JURISDICTION to bring charges against NON-MEMBERS.
Here is a list of their members. The United States refused to sign because it did not want it to be charged in a court it did not control. Look closely; you will see that NEITHER Russia nor Israel are members of the ICC. They have NO jurisdiction whatsoever with regard to crimes of aggression, and for that, both states must be members. That is why the prosecution of Putin was clearly a fraud and obviously orchestrated by the Neocons. The charge against Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova was really a stretch, alleging he was responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and the unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). This was to take children out of the war zone, and they turned that into a war crime of aggression that did not require membership. This was really politically motivated, showing the ICC is a joke. When none of the nations tied to the crimes are ICC Treaty signatories, then the task of contracting the ICC to investigate falls to the United Nations Security Council.
Now, the ICC is acting under political pressure again. Palestine became a special member, so here, there is jurisdiction over only one country. These arrest warrants are for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. They have also issued warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, political chief Ismail Haniyah, and Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of Hamas’ armed wing, also known as Mohammed Deif. The pressure was that ICC is controlled by the West and is irrelevant. This idea that they can use JUSTICE to stop wars is really absurd. You can have a law against murder, but in the heat of passion, nobody calculates if I do this, I can be charged – the act without thinking about the consequences.
The charges, in this case, are different from non-members. They would face a sentence of up to 30 years in prison and possibly life. Being a member state, they would be under a legal obligation to arrest any of those charged if they traveled to any of those 124 countries, which means Europe. That obligation to arrest them demonstrates how internationally the ICC actually threatens world war by preventing any diplomatic conferences. For example, Putin canceled his plans to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in the apparent light of Pretoria’s obligation to arrest him.
The ICC’s charges here should not be confused with another similar case pending against the state of Israel, namely the charge of genocide leveled against it by several nations. Among others, South Africa has spearheaded a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) based on the high number of casualties in Gaza.
Since Palestine is a member, they should immediately arrest Hamas leaders Sinwar and Deif, who are in Gaza, but Haniyah resides in Qatar, which is a non-member. Will Palestine comply? Israel is not a member and does not have to comply. If the ICC charged Macron in France, is the country then obligated to arrest its own president contrary to its own laws? This introduces the paradox of the ICC questioning if it is even valid under international law. It acts as the supreme authority as if it were a one-world government, which has always been the aspiration and dream of the United Nations.
Some argue that this prosecutor had no choice because Palestine is a member of the ICC and the criticism has been that they are the puppet of the West after the Putin nonsense. So he has charged Netanyahu to politically vindicate the ICC. However, what he has unleashed is breaking the European ties and support for Israel. ICC arrest warrants against Israeli officials he can cleverly use to interfere in the entire backing for Israel. Israel’s European allies could be forced to terminate their relationship with Israel or risk being indicted in the ICC for aiding criminals.
If Palestine now refuses to turn off Hamas leaders in Gaza, then they too would be in a conspiracy, and Europeans who support Palestine could be forced to cut all ties. This illustrates that this idea of the ICC was clearly never well thought out, that they would never prevent war with justice but could promote war with arrest warrants that prevented diplomatic negotiations. For example, Putin can no longer even attend G20 meetings. When you cut off all diplomatic communications, then the ONLY alternative is war. The ICC should be terminated. Like NATO, which exists ONLY for war, the ICC dangerously breaks down the possibility of peace with its political interference in international relations.
For political propaganda purposes, the European countries supported the ICC arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for purported transporting children, not atrocities in Ukraine. I have videos captured by Ukrainians showing the crucifying of Russian soldiers and setting them on fire. Accounts from French volunteer soldiers who left Ukraine witnessed Ukrainians shooting the heads of Russian prisoners of war for fun. The ICC has refused to charge anyone on the Ukrainian side for war crimes. They never charged the British or Americans for war crimes in Iraq.
Karim Khan is the Chief Prosecutor at the ICC since 2021. He is a British lawyer whose father was born in Mardan, Pakistan. Issuing an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel when Israel is not a member is outrageous on the pretense that Palestine is a member. But he got away with it and issued the political arrest for Putin, ensuring there could be no diplomatic meetings, and everyone cheered. If Putin flew to America for a White House meeting and flew over France, do they have the right to send up jets to intercept Putin’s flight and shoot it down if they refuse to land?
This is what I have warned about precedent. He got away with Putin and will obviously abuse his power against non-members, and the ramifications can be dramatic from a political perspective; sure, Israel will not cooperate, and neither will the United States. Will Palestine really arrest and hand over Hamas’s leadership? But what will the members in Europe do now? If they send any support to Israel or Palestine, if they do not comply, they can be charged under the conspiracy theories. The ICC can easily hurl the world into international war over their pretend authority that nobody ever thought through the true consequences of this one-world government approach.
A new film, War and Justice, is about the ICC. It also highlights the jurisdictional issues.
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The ICC has abused its power and should now be disbanded.
Enough is enough!
About the Film:
The International Criminal Court (ICC) seeks arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, for war and crimes against humanity.
The award-winning documentary WAR AND JUSTICE by directors Marcus Vetter and Michele Gentile about the ICC in The Hague couldn’t be more spot on. It will have its German theatrical release on June 6, 2024. The film will be shown in the presence of Luis Moreno Ocampo, the first Chief Prosecutor of the ICC, and Herta Däubler Gmelin (former German Minister of Justice), followed by a live Q&A in Tübingen. Due to the events in Israel/Palestine, the directors continued filming after the world premiere at the Munich Film Festival and edited an the final version that sheds light on the role of the ICC in the current Gaza war.
WAR AND JUSTICE is a fascinating documentary that tells the 25-year history of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in its mission to end the most serious crimes against humanity. In recent years, the ICC has made a name for itself by issuing an arrest warrant against President Putin. On October 7, 2023, Hamas carries out a horrific massacre of Israeli civilians. Israel responds with the largest offensive on the Gaza Strip to date. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan travels to the Middle East and announces that he will prosecute any kind of war crimes on both sides.
WAR AND JUSTICE focuses on Karim Khan, the current Chief Prosecutor, and Argentine lawyer Luis Moreno-Ocampo, who was appointed the ICC’s first Chief Prosecutor in 2003 and whose case against the junta in his country was the subject of the Oscar-nominated feature film “ARGENTINA: 1985“.
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