Posted originally on Nov 25, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I am a newcomer. I watched your WEC virtually. It was very eye-opening. I also want to thank you for Socrates and for covering Bitcoin. Your service is the only thing out there that isn’t biased, and you are not trying to sell me some crypto. Also, thank you for explaining that nothing can be fixed and that the sales pitch behind Bitcoin was just false. You have explained it is an asset class and approach it like anything else. It’s just a trade. I look at it in different currencies, as you said. It has opened my mind to a dynamic world, as you put it at the WEC.
Once again, thank you.
Paul
REPLY: With the political chaos surrounding us and the push for war, these are the times that cause capital to move. Look at our map that tracks the capital flows every day. Both the Chinese and Russians are pulling back the capital from the West. The capital is fleeing the Baltics right now, but Brazil is also experiencing political chaos there.nWhen you look at Bitcoin in various currencies, you can see that it is being used as a vehicle to get capital out of Europe right now.
Graver Cleveland was the previous president who, like Trump, was elected to non-consecutive terms. Like Donald Trump, he also stood against his own party. He expressed this best during the Panic of 1893. Capital can flee and move offshore. It is the middle class that cannot hoard their labor nor move it offshore.
Bitcoin is a trading vehicle, and it may not be suited for a reserve currency since the money supply MUST increase with population and the expansion of the economy, or else you create deflation. Nevertheless, it has become an international means of moving money, and this is happening right now, so it is important to look at anything from a global perspective. Bitcoin has become like gold where it is the same product that is traded internationally.
Posted originally on the CTH on November 24, 2024 | Sundance
Interesting that none of the Europeans saw this outcome looming, which is likely why Samantha Power and her USAID/CIA election operation was not present for round #1. Unfortunately, it should be expected that team USA will quickly react and dispatch assistants to help recover in round #2.
Make Romania Great Again candidate Călin Georgescu came out of nowhere and has won the first round in the presidential election.
Georgescu campaigned on an anti-EU, anti-NATO and anti-war with Russia platform; simultaneously supporting domestic farmers, domestic energy production and advocating for a Romania that is free from foreign influence.
Oh, and instead of traditional media, his campaign message was strongly directed to the Romanian people, via TikTok. Imagine that.
As noted by Politico, “Ultranationalist Călin Georgescu comes from nowhere to lead center-left PM Marcel Ciolacu and liberal Elena Lasconi in first round.
[…] According to the partial results, Georgescu leads with 22.2 percent followed by center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu on 20.2 percent. Reformist candidate Elena Lasconi is on 18 percent, while another hard-right candidate, George Simion, trails with 14.1 percent support, with 96 percent of precincts reporting.
An early exit poll had suggested that Lasconi was set to qualify for the presidential runoff but Georgescu surged as vote counting continued Sunday night, heralding a result that is set to upend Romanian politics.
Georgescu, extremely religious and nationalistic, campaigned on reducing Romania’s reliance on imports, supporting farmers and increasing the domestic production of food and energy.
He has also argued that the EU and NATO do not properly represent Romanian interests and claimed Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Romanian neighbor, is manipulated by American military companies.
In 2022, he claimed that the U.S. anti-missile shield located in the southern Romanian village of Deveselu is part of a confrontation policy and not a peaceful measure. Russian President Vladimir Putin has argued the same.
He said at the time that he had no support from Russia but felt close to its culture. He described Putin as “a man who loves his country.”
Georgescu also said he admired Hungary because it knows how to negotiate internationally. (read more)
Posted originally on Nov 22, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The skies are darkening over Europe’s economy and politics, all thanks to their determination to wage war against Russia. The euro is plummeting to its lowest level in two years. Will the Euro stop at 85 cents in the year ahead? European leaders know that the Eurozone is crumbling, and instead of reform, they have chosen war and to use that as the excuse for the collapse of the Euro in the years ahead. In Putin’s address to the Russian people, he stated that
“Russian military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk regions were attacked by Western missiles.” According to him, “the conflict in Ukraine has taken on global elements.”
The European press is either stupid or is cheering war on as aversion to the collapse of Europe from the nonsense of climate change & Wokeness that infected Europe as well. But the number one rule is never to admit a mistake – point the finger at someone else.
This is the very propaganda that destroys Europe. Neither Putin nor the Russian people would support taking Europe. But keep this onslaught of attacking Russia, and then they will annihilate Europe, which our computer warns they will lose for a third time. I can confirm that even war game simulations suggest that Britain will lose all its aircraft carriers. Any press that refers to Putin as a “dictator” instantly knows this is being fed by the NEOCON propaganda machine. They will not tell the truth that Putin was elected and the people supported him BECAUSE the alternative is a Russian NEOCON and a return to the USSR. UrsulavonderLeyen is the dictator, for she did not stand for election and was part of the World Economic Forum vo in only by political heads of state that are all preaching the same agenda – WAR – WAR -WAR.
Europeans discovered what the Chinese did years ago: They used Bitcoin as an asset class to move money. While the propaganda about Bitcoin that it would replace the dollar as the reserve currency is absurd, it remains an asset class like everything else. You cannot have a fixed quantity of money; it MUST be elastic because the economy has a business cycle. That is why Bretton Woods collapsed. Fixing gold at $35 did constrict the number of dollars created primarily for the NEOCONS and war. In 1960, there was a gold panic because President Kennedy said that the decline in the dollar was due to the maintenance of all the military bases around the world at American expense. The Swiss/Euro peg broke, the Pound/ERM Crisis that made Soros rich, and the 1997 Asian currency crisis when the pegs broke. NOBODY has ever been able to fix the value of any currency. Do not confuse using gold coinage as a gold standard, for its value always rose and fell, as did even the ratio between silver and gold.
Russia used this new ICBM non-nuclear weapon for the first time, and in the future, it would warn civilians to evacuate before a launch. The real curious aspect here is that there has been no reaction yet from the UK, France, or Germany. They apparently did not know what to say as they pushed Ukraine to sacrifice its entire nation and its people for a war that was not winable.
Let us not forget that the Minsk Agreement was supposed to let the Donbas vote on their own separation, as it took place with the break up of Yugoslavia according to ethnic lines. These NEOCONS do not care about our country or the people. To them, this is like a football game, and they have to destroy Russia no matter what the cost. I have spoken directly to some, and they are logical, and I cannot explain their reasoning. It just seems to be delusional if not insane.
Many of our sources throughout the former Yugoslavia states are turning toward Russia than the West. Scandals, corruption, and constant broken promises are part of the shift toward the nationalistic view we see also rising in Germany. Most of the surrounding nations around Ukraine see them as an unethical group of people who are untrustworthy and the most corrupt in the world. they are baffled that the West is supporting Ukraine, and that is also contributing to the shift toward Russia.
Markets also raised their expectations of European Central Bank rate cuts and see a more than 50% chance of a larger-than-usual 50 bp rate cut in December. The euro has weakened against the dollar as Europe and NATO vow to keep the war going after Donald Trump’s victory. Recent escalations in fighting between Russia and Ukraine and political uncertainty in Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, have further weighed on the Euro in recent weeks. Our model still shows that the Eurozone will break apart as all centralized dictatorial forms of government inevitably fall. The same fate will shared by the USA.
Posted originally on Nov 21, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Donald Trump believes tariffs could offset taxes, but tariffs will be a tax in itself to the American consumer. Trump is proposing to raise taxes from 60% to 100% on Chinese goods. He would also like to implement a universal tariff from 10% to 20% on all international imports. Ultimately, the consumer will end up paying the bill to offset these increase.
“If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele said, adding that the company will protect itself by raising prices before the tariffs take effect. Countless companies have come out to say that they will absolutely pass on the added cost to their consumers. It is not as simple as moving manufacturing out of China or to America.
Lowe’s expressed similar concerns. “Roughly 40% of our cost of goods sold are sourced outside of the US, and that includes both direct imports and national brands through our vendor partners,” said CFO Brandon Sink. “And as we look at potential impact, certainly would add product costs, but timing and details remain uncertain at this point.”
The National Retail Federation (NRF) conducted a study that revealed Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost US consumers between $46 billion and $78 billion annually, with the average household paying between $362 to $624 more on goods per year. The NRF called these proposed tariffs a “tax on all Americans,” and noted that lower-income Americans, who often purchase cheaper goods produced in China, will be disproportionately affected. The federation believes apparel costs will rise from $13.9 billion to $24 billion, footwear will rise to $10.7 billion from $6.4 billion, travel goods will increase to $3.9 billion from $2.2 billion, furniture will average $13.1 billion more compared to the current $8.5 billion, and household appliances will increase to $10.9 billion from $6.4 billion.
“A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices,” Jonathan Gold, NRF VP of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated.
Trump believes that these tariffs will bring manufacturing back to America and force companies to hire American. While the US desperately needs to boost its manufacturing sector, these tariffs are simply not the solution. Companies may seek to reduce their own reliance on US goods. China in particular will retaliate and they do so with precision as we have seen with their previous targets on agriculture products that the US relies on like pork and soybeans.
Imposing high tariffs can disrupt global supply chains and negatively impact international trade relationships. I disagree with the mercantilism approach that focuses on maximizing exports while minimizing the need for imports through tariffs and other barriers. Not only is US manufacturing not set up for this model at this time, but it is also absolutely counterproductive to global trade. Not to mention that China’s middle class is set to outpace America’s. They have a far larger population and America may no longer be the primary country that other nations line up to sell to.
Tariffs never promote peace. Rome lasted over 1,000 years because it had FREE TRADE. Rome was not corrupt everyone benefitted. As long as the PEOPLE are trading back and forth, they provide check and balance against government to create peace.
Posted originally on Nov 21, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The incoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy is tackling a serious problem – the complex tax code. Donald Trump has also expressed a keen interest on simplifying the process and fixing our “broken tax code.”
The Internal Revenue Service was multiplied and armed with weapons under Biden-Harris. The administration desperately needed funding for its continuous spending and aid packages, and the American people were an easy target. One can hope that the incoming Trump Administration will help to dismantle the IRS that creates criminals out of everyday citizens who spend weeks if not months trying to determine how much they owe. The government doesn’t seem to know how much they need to extort from citizens, but rest assured, they will hunt you down if you under or overpay.
The code is deliberately confusing. “In 1955, there were less than 1.5 million words in the U.S. Tax Code. Today, there are more than 16 million words. Because of this complexity, Americans collectively spend 6.5 billion hours preparing and filing their taxes each year. This must be simplified,” DOGE wrote on its new X account.
DOGE has proposed creating an app for Americans to pay their taxes. That is all good and well but until the code is drastically simplified, I do not see how filing on your phone could streamline the process. Still, TurboTax shares fell 5.1% after the rumors broke as did H&R Block by 8.2%.
I sent Congress an extensive proposal on tax reform in 1996, which you mayread here.
Taxation is indeed a much broader issue than merely federal. State and local governments have been raising taxes at an unseen pace. The cost of government as measured by total revenues as a percent of the total of GDP is a key factor in determining our quality of life, and as we have seen, our quality of life has been drastically reduced as government spending rises. The people cannot possibly be expected to foot this endless bill. The Founding Fathers of the United States specifically prohibited direct taxation, such as any form of an income tax.
One of the primary things is that the tax rate should be cast in stone and it should not change for every election. No one, on a personal level, would go sign a lease on an apartment where the lease said the landlord can change your rent at any time he wants if he spent too much money for himself. . A contract is a contract and you’re not going to have stability until you have something set in stone. A lot of countries have attracted capital by doing precisely this. If you go there and set up a plant, they guarantee not to increase taxes for 20, 30, 40 years. If you’re going to do a business plan then you need to know what your costs are. It can’t be maybe $1 mill this year and next year it’s 25% more. Business plans don’t work like that. The politicians need to just cast it in stone and that’s it; take it off the table. Stop the rhetoric. They’re not going to create jobs without that. Why should anyone build a plant in the U.S. if the government can change everything in 6 months? That’s not the way to build an economy.
Every government that has adopted a form of direct taxation has always, and without exception, evolved with intrusive regulation that has ultimately led to a loss of freedom and liberty. To pursue liberty, the very basic requirement demands that economic freedom is paramount.
Posted originally on Nov 20, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Not one European leader represents their country or their population. They are all chanting war. The Finnish minister warns NATO may invoke Article 5 over cable sabotage of the telecommunications cable. Europe wants war, and NATO is brainwashing everyone that Putin wants to conquer Europe, so let’s conquer Russia first. NATO is the retirement home for Neocons. Fearing Trump, they are going all out to create war by December. Europeans had better move money out of Europe, for they would impose capital controls.
What NATO is doing is no different than punching you in the face first, insisting it was in self-defense because he knew you wanted to punch him first. This is NATO’s version of Self-Defense. The Neocons got Biden to let Ukraine use US weapons, and they did immediately. The Neocons are pushing every button to create war by December. This is their moment. This is what they have been dreaming of their entire lives.
Moscow signaled to the West that it was ready for a nuclear confrontation after Ukraine was permitted to attack Russian territory on the same day. Kiev takes its orders from the Neocons. Ukrainians I talk to regard Zelensky as a traitor, and they are not allowed to seek peace or decide the fate of their own country. Ukraine has been converted into the West’s version of Hezbolla, exploiting them as Iran does to Lebanon.
Zelensky appeared to waste little time after reportedly being given the go-ahead by Washington on Sunday to use U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against specific targets. Ukrainian news outlets reported early Tuesday that the missiles had been used to attack a Russian military facility in the Bryansk border region.
Putin has been there since the end of 1999. He has had plenty of time to invade Europe and has not. That is the BS of the communist days led by Khrushchev, who even the Russians overthrew for his aggressive antics that included putting missiles into Cuba.
Not a single European leader gives two shits about their people or their country. Not a single one will dare to even try to negotiate. They will be the destruction of Europe this time – as they say
Posted originally on Nov 20, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnsonreemerges from the shadows whenever he hears word that a war may be winding down. He played an instrumental role in persuading Zelensky not to negotiate a peace treaty with Russia, and now he is proposing immediate NATO membership for Ukraine, which is the official onset of World War III.
A chip off the old block, Boris takes after his father, Stanley Johnson, who is from the same club as Bill Gates’ father and a eugenicist. Stanley worked for the Rockefeller Foundation in New York. Johnson and Rockefeller have the same population reduction goals as Gates. They somehow justify the need for a reduction of 70 million people from the population in Britain to 10 million to enhance economic growth. Stanley was also a proponent of climate change before it really gained traction in the mainstream community.
Back on June 3, 2020, I announced that I would not support Boris Johnson and that I saw him as a threat to Britain. I had my reasons behind the curtain, which I was unprepared to express fully. However, as they say, the apple does not fall far from the tree. Here, we have Boris following his father’s depopulation ideas, as is the case with Bill Gates following his father. Quite honestly, I do not understand that.
Johnson is the man who made that emergency trip to Ukraine when Zelensky was considering a peace deal with Russia, urging him to continue the endless war. All the neocons are in a mad rush to arm and fund Ukraine before Trump returns in January. Now, Johnson wants to give $500 billion in a “loan” and force NATO to enact Article V. At the same time, Zelensky is telling the press that he is willing to keep the war alive after 1,000 days of death and destruction. It’s past the point that Zelensky could even stop the war if tried. He sold out Ukraine and it is too late.
And here we have Boris resurfacing from the swamp once again to urge NATO to permit Ukraine to join. “That means we must have the courage and logic to give the Ukrainians the security guarantee that they need and announce a date in the near future by which Ukraine will join NATO,” Johnson said, also adding that Ukraine needs another $500 BILLION–$500 BILLION. For what reason? He believes it can come in the form of a lend-lease obligation, but how can they expect Ukraine to pay off all of its debt without conquering Russia and amassing its fortune? That is what these neocons believe is possible – a Russian takeover.
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