Tag Archives: Marxism

Nov 11 2022

The UK is Not Prepared for a Prolonged Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Nov 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are simply not prepared for a sharp economic downturn. The Money and Pensions Service conducted a poll in the UK in which it found around 25% of adults have under £100 in savings. The 3,000-person survey found that 17% reported having absolutely nothing set aside. Around 5% reportedly had under £50, while 4% had between £50 and £100.

The drastically increased cost of living has many living paycheck to paycheck. The Building Societies Association (BSA), as reported by the BBC, conducted a separate survey that found that 35% of people in the UK simply stopped saving due to inflation. Around 36% said they are already dipping into their savings accounts to pay the bills.

The Bank of England is anticipating a long recession ahead. The central bank sees economic conditions contracting through the first half of 2024. The central bank’s prediction of five consecutive quarters of contraction would mark the longest recession in UK history. The people have not experienced the full effects of this recession, and most are simply not prepared for what lies ahead.

Nov 11 2022

CPI Report – Inflation on Food, Fuel, Home Heating and Essentials Continues Growing – Overall Inflation Moderation Now Claimed as Calendar Cycles


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 10, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) provides the latest data on consumer prices (inflation) [DATA HERE].  We explained in 2021 how inflation would grow on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis until the calendar became more friendly and the government officials could claim “diminished inflation growth.”  Well, we are now entering that phase of economic parseltongue.

October consumer prices increased 0.4% over September.  However, we are now comparing year-over-year (Y0Y) inflation to the period where last year’s prices had already skyrocketed, so YoY inflation seems to be moderating at 7.7%, it’s a false premise. {Go Deep}

As expected, the energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived.  The proverbial field inflation is arriving at the fork, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.

Table 2 Details: Egg prices increased +10.1% last month and now 43% higher than last year.  Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year.  Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year.  Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.

Heading into baking season we find flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year.  Essentially, as expected, all of the holiday foodstuffs are now rising in price as the increased field and commodity prices hit the store shelves.

Some row crops are starting to moderate in price growth, while dairy products continue rising throughout the fall season.  It is going to be painful on the checkbook grocery shopping this holiday season.

On the energy front, home heating oil increased 19.8% in October and is now a whopping 68.5% higher than last October.  Unleaded gasoline increased another 3.5% and now is now 20.9% higher than last year (Oct ’21), which was already 40% higher than January 2021.

Food, fuel, electricity, home heating and housing costs continue growing monthly, but give the illusion of moderating when compared to last year.

Food away from home (restaurants etc.) are starting to show the cumulative price impacts for restaurants, hotels and cafeterias.  Additionally, as the kids returned to school the lunchroom prices have skyrocketed a jaw-dropping +3.8% for October and +95% compared to last year [Table 2].  Packing lunches for kids is going to become an even more important aspect for the family food budget.

The stock market is happy with the news because the lowered 7.7% (YoY) inflation number, a product of the calendar and nothing else, gives optimism the Fed may moderate the increased federal reserve rate hikes.  However, don’t count on it because inflation is easily identified as embedded now.  Lemons at the grocery store are now $0.99/each.

Think about that.  $1 for a single lemon and roughly 50¢ per egg at the supermarket.  A full shopping cart of groceries now easily exceeding $200.  This is devastating for those on fixed incomes and blue-collar workers.

Wages are nowhere near keeping up with this level of price increase.

(CNBC) The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool.

The index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Thursday. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for rises of 0.6% and 7.9%.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.5% and 6.5%.

A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Apparel prices fell 0.7% and medical care services were lower by 0.6%.

“The report overstates the case that inflation is coming in, but it makes a case inflation is coming in,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s pretty clear that inflation has definitely peaked and is rolling over. All the trend lines suggest that it will continue to moderate going forward, assuming that nothing goes off the rails.” (read more)

The Biden energy policy is the root of the consumer inflation. Nothing will happen to moderate overall consumer inflation on Main Street until energy policy changes.

Additionally, with the 2022 election in the rear-view mirror, we should start to see layoffs and unemployment increasing now.  The bureaucrats will now let the recession become evident.

Nov 10 2022

Politics Globally is on a New Agenda


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Nov 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT from Thailand:  In Thailand, for the whole 2020, there is only 61 Covid deaths.
Few months after mass vaccination there is 20000 “Covid” deaths.
This year, I believed that there is an explosion of COVID illnesses and deaths, just like Canada. And the authority is keeping a tight lip about it.
Look like 2022 desease cycle is driven by the COVID Varients.

DC

REPLY: All of the death I personally know of are ONLY from those who were vaccinated. The NY Supreme Court ordered back pay to those who were fired for refusing the vaccines stating that the vaccine neither prevented anyone from getting COVID nor spreading it. It was a total PR routine and the politicians merely got their pockets filled thanks to bribes.

COMMENT From Brazil: So, about the Brazilian Elections.
The Brazilian military (DoD) were not allowed to access the source code by the Supreme Court.
The conclusion, the fraud is guaranteed, as the lack of transparency.
I wouldn’t want to be in Lula’s shoes. Now, everybody knows.
There was a huge fraud against Bolsonaro, because nobody voted in Lula.
Unbelievable, the world will not recover from this, the thing is going into free fall.
When the military cannot do its job, something is very rotten, they have no authority within their own country, so where does this external power or interference come from?
King regards,
R.

REPLY: Bolsonaro had to be removed from office the same as Trump, Putin, and Jinping. I have a video clip someone took at the Davos WEF meeting in 2019 where Bolsonaro said these people are insane. The EU organized a rigged election in Italy to get rid of Silvio Berlusconi. The EU rigged the Scottish separatist vote as well. The EU rules that Catalonia has no right to separate.

We do not live in a world where the right to vote is truly respected. Bolsonaro had to go for the WEF was out to remove him because he stood against their climate change agenda.
There is nothing we can do about this. It will play out and blow up in everyone’s face.

Nov 9 2022

Another Brick in the Wall


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is rare for a celebrity to speak out against the agenda. Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters has reached a level of fame where he can question the status quo as his legacy is sealed. Waters called Biden a “war criminal” for encouraging the war in Ukraine. “This war is about the action and reaction of NATO pushing right up to the Russian border, which they promised they wouldn’t do when Gorbachev negotiated the withdrawal of the USSR,” Waters declared. Amazing how a musician understands the situation better than politicians.

CNN attempted to argue with Waters, but he held firm. The reporter attempted and failed to belittle Waters by saying he should see Russia as the enemy as his father died in the last world war. However, that is precisely what Waters and any sensible human are aiming to avoid – another world war. “Don’t forget 23 million Russians died protecting you and me from the Nazis,” Waters said.

He then asked the reporter what he thought America would do if China began to line up on the US border. We all know the answer to that question. Imagine if China placed nuclear weapons in or near Canada and Mexico? The nuclear apocalypse would have already happened.

Many hold the same views as Roger Waters, but they are too afraid to speak up. The average person, who may not tune into political commentary, will listen to celebrities when they speak. The problem becomes the fear of cancelation. It is career suicide to question the current agenda. Pink Floyd cannot be canceled; they’ve been popular for far too many decades. The left “hippies” of the past are nothing like the hipsters today who encourage war and echo the voices of the elite.

Nov 7 2022

Bolsonaro Hands Over Power to Lula             


Armstrong Economics Blog/South America Re-Posted Nov 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jair Bolsonaro did not immediately concede to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva after the close election of 49.1%-50.9%. This is the closest presidential race in Brazil since 1985 and marks Bolsonaro’s first defeat in his political career. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.”

As our computer warned, there would be intense politically motivated civil unrest worldwide this November.

The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he will hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. World leaders also affiliated with the “elite” group have congratulated him on his win. His policies will align with other WEF leaders and is a glimpse into what to expect from Brazil going forward. Bolsonaro’s words to the people will not eliminate the anger they feel nor will it prevent the people from continuing to protest.

Nov 6 2022

Interview: There May Not Be a 2024 Election


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Nov 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to see my latest interview with Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.

I will be discussing all of this and more at the World Economic Conference this weekend (virtual tickets are still available).

Commentary from Greg Hunter:

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says, “The cheating in the midterm election next week is going to be so great that it is almost impossible to make a prediction. . . . In a fair midterm election, the Republicans would win the House and the Senate.”

So,m what does his Socrates program see for next week?  Armstrong, says, “It’s going to be tight, and the Republicans have a shot at taking the House.  Technically, they should take the House and the Senate.  I am just not sure.  The corruption is so bad, it’s crazy.  Pennsylvania sent out hundreds of thousands of ballots to people who are not documented or even American.  I’ve gotten emails from people in Canada, they are getting mail-in ballots.  They mailed them to Canada. . . .Where this ends up, who knows?  It’s just so corrupt, it is over the top.  It doesn’t matter who wins.  Nobody is going to accept this thing, and that is the problem.”

The cheating is going to be so in your face President Trump may not even be able to run for President two years from now.  Armstrong contends, “We may not even have an election in 2024.  It is not looking very good, and it’s probably because this election is not going to be accepted.  When it is so over-the-top corrupt, what do you do for the next one?  The United States will not exist after 2032.  After 2028 and 2029, we are going to have to redesign a government from scratch.  America is being destroyed.  Republics always end in absolute corruption.  We just saw the same thing happen in Brazil.  They staged a major effort to take Bolsonaro out. . . . This is a worldwide effort.  They had to get rid of Trump.  The other one who stood in their way is Bolsonaro.  Then there is Putin (Russia) and Xi Jinping (China).  I think you are going to have historians look back at this 50 years from now, and they will call this period ‘The Climate Change Wars’. . . .They are trying to take down as much oil energy capacity as possible.”

Armstrong is still seeing very strong signals on domestic violence everywhere.  Armstrong explains, “Our computer is showing it’s going to be a rocket launch for volatility and civil unrest next year.”

Armstrong also contends there will be a major loss of confidence in government around the world.  That means gold will start having big demand from big money.  Armstrong also predicts, “The whole monetary system as we know it is collapsing.  That was what the bond crisis in the UK was about.”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 7-minute interview for 11.5.22.

Nov 6 2022

New Interview: World War III, Commodities, and Overthrowing Putin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Nov 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Check out the audio above for my latest interview with Cris Sheridan from Financial Sense.