Tag Archives: Neo-Conservatives

Apr 27 2017

Citing New Soft Wood Import Tariff, Maine Lumber Mill to Add Jobs and Second Shift…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House  on April 26, 2017 by

President Trump has a simple economic platform: “Buy American and Hire American“; toward that goal all economic and fiscal policies are now directed to assist U.S. manufacturing companies and retain U.S. workers.  Period.

Two days ago Commerce Secretary Wilbur “Wilburine” Ross announced a 20% tariff, countervailing duties, on imported Canadian soft wood lumber.  Today, Pleasant River Lumber Co. in Jackman Maine announces their wood mills will now expand as a direct result of the beneficial impacts of even trade practices.

This is a big deal for this community.

MAINE – The Dover-Foxcroft-based Pleasant River Lumber company is expanding its Jackman sawmill in anticipation of increased demand for American lumber amid the U.S. government’s plans to levy tariffs on Canadian softwood.

In a media release Tuesday, Pleasant River Lumber said it is expanding its Moose River spruce mill in Jackman to add drying capacity this summer and hire up to 20 new workers for a second shift starting this fall.

“We have confidence with the recent tariff announcement a level playing field will exist that will allow us to invest in and expand our facilities in Maine,” said Jason Brochu, co-president of the family-owned Pleasant River Lumber.

The company employs 300 workers at its spruce and pine sawmills in Dover-Foxcroft, Jackman, Hancock and Sanford. The company acquired the Moose River Mill in Jackman in 2015, and it now produces about 85 million board feet of dimensional lumber a year.  (read more)

Some people might think this is not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things.  However, it is a very big deal to that community; it is a very big deal to those families; it is a very big deal to those who will now have good paying jobs.

Once upon a time, there was an old man who used to go to the ocean to do his writing. He had a habit of walking on the beach every morning before he began his work. Early one morning, he was walking along the shore after a big storm had passed and found the vast beach littered with starfish as far as the eye could see, stretching in both directions.

Off in the distance, the old man noticed a small boy approaching.  As the boy walked, he paused every so often and as he grew closer, the man could see that he was occasionally bending down to pick up an object and throw it into the sea.  The boy came closer still and the man called out, “Good morning!  May I ask what it is that you are doing?”

The young boy paused, looked up, and replied “Throwing starfish into the ocean. The tide has washed them up onto the beach and they can’t return to the sea by themselves,” the youth replied. “When the sun gets high, they will die, unless I throw them back into the water.”

The old man replied, “But there must be tens of thousands of starfish on this beach. I’m afraid you won’t really be able to make much of a difference.”

The boy bent down, picked up yet another starfish and threw it as far as he could into the ocean. Then he turned, smiled and said, “It made a difference to that one!”

[SOURCE]

Apr 26 2017

More Visible Dots The Media Ignore In Trump’s Strategy Against North Korea…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 26, 2017 by

Hours before the Trump administration briefed 100 senators today on the issues surrounding North Korea, a more consequential announcement was made.

The jaw dropping announcement (hidden by U.S. media) appears to show just how long President Trump has been putting the North Korea strategy together.  However, before discussing that aspect, we review the Senate Briefing at the White House:

Today Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, presided over a meeting meeting to brief Senators.

The details of that meeting have not been made public because of their classification and sensitivity.  The meeting lasted about one hour and discussed various financial and military options available for pressuring North Korea to end its nuclear program. (link)

Here’s where it gets really interesting.

For months the media have, at random, ridiculed President Trump for not distancing himself from Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.  President Duterte has been cracking down on Filipino drug gangs in his country and his approach has been severe and extremely tough.  Indeed Duterte’s zero tolerance approach has been brutal.

However, shortly after his election, December 3rd 2016, President Trump chose not to refute Duterte for his approach toward confronting the Filipino drug gangs and drug epidemic.  The media were apoplectic.   Duterte responded by calling President Trump “a deep thinker“. Duterte said he was greatly pleased with the “rapport” he has established with the newly elected U.S. president.

Instead of President Trump calling out President Duterte for the severity of his approach, President Trump moderated any criticism and said he understood that Duterte was confronting the problem the best way he knew how for his country.

That was in December of 2016.

Well, guess who is now the rotating (every year) Chairman of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)?

Yup, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

And just yesterday, after a visit last week from Vice-President Pence, ASEAN announced:

Southeast Asian nations would adopt a softer than usual tone about South China Sea disputes at a leaders’ summit on Saturday in Manila, and exclude references to militarization or island-building, according to a draft of the chairman’s statement.

Although some Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders will express “serious concern” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed sea, ASEAN will drop references, or even allusions, to China’s construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them, according excerpts of the draft seen by Reuters. (link)

China has been expanding its seven man-made islands in the Spratlys (South China Sea) for several years, and the action has been a considerable point of angst for the region and for U.S. geo-political strategists in the former Obama administration.

However, despite the activity, and despite the protestations by the Obama White House and Obama State Department, the general consensus has been there’s nothing any nation can do about it because China exerts tremendous economic leverage in the entire region.  Additionally, the man-made Islands are too far along for any substantive international efforts to thwart them. 

The horse giant panda is now fully out of the barn.

There’s no President Trump policy capable of reversing the position of China in this action.  Done is done.  However, the international view of legitimacy around these islands still carries some major political leverage if applied toward a greater regional need of similar consequence.

Enter the need for the international community, and ASEAN specifically, to see North Korea pull-back from their doomsday nuclear ambitions…. and President Trump understanding that given the nature of entire issue – it all comes down to leveraging China, using complex terms of political currency, valuation and international legitimacy, against North Korea.

The Giant Panda can eliminate the problem that is Kim Jong Un.

ASEAN Chairman, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, modifying the confrontational tone of Asian nations toward China is yet another useful carrot by U.S. President Trump to stimulate China’s increased pressure upon North Korea.

That’s a really big ‘get’ for President Xi Jinping.

“Complicated business folks, ….Complicated business”…  

Again, a review of the activity timeline reveals a long-term strategic approach: 

♦February 10th – President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Abe at the White House and at Mar-a-Lago, w/both spouses, to discuss regional issues (including N-Korea).

♦February 27th – President Trump and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi meet in the White House Oval Office to discuss regional issues (including N-Korea).

♦March 15th – Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visits Japan, South Korea and China to follow up on February’s conversations and discuss the forward path (including N-Korea).

♦April 6th and 7th – President Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping in Mar-a-Lago where they discussed all of the critical bilateral and regional issues (including N-Korea).  President Trump seeded the background by appointing Ambassador Terry Branstad, a 30-year personal friend of President Xi Jinping.

♦April 8th – Secretary Rex Tillerson debriefs the media.  <– CRITICAL READ

WHAT HAPPENED NEXT?

  • For the first time ever, China did not support Russia in a U.N. Security Council veto vote surrounding Syria.   China abstained.
  • China turned around 12 fully loaded cargo ships laden with imported coal from North Korea.  400,000 metric tonnes refused unloading.   China begins an embargo against North Korean coal.  China begins importing coking coal for steel-making from the U.S. coal mines.
  • Additionally, in furtherance of economic sanctions – China halts oil exports to North Korea.
  • Additionally, in furtherance of political isolation – China halts direct flights between Beijing, China and Pyongyang, North Korea.
  • And in the most stunning seismic shift of geo-political alliances, China says it is now open to discussions of a denuclearized North Korea, meaning getting rid of N-Korean nukes, WITHOUT N-Korea being included in the talks. Hello?  China, the United States, Japan, Russia and South Korea discussing how to de-nuke North Korea.  (A new Marshal Plan of sorts)

♦April 14th – President Trump announces policy directive to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that there’s no need to label China as a currency manipulator.

♦April 15th – Vice President Pence arrived in Asia for a ten day visit (South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, Australia); positioned as the steady, stable and reliable administration policy closer (including N-Korea).

♦April 23rd – President Trump followed up on Pence’s visit with personal phone calls to China’s President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; again, the topic was North Korea.

♦April 24th – U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley brings the U.N. Security Council to the White House for lunch with President Trump.  The President spoke of the need for the U.N. to fulfill its original charter.

♦April 25th – ASEAN (Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte – rotating ASEAN Chairman) releases policy statement saying Southeast Asian nations agree to go easy on Beijing over South China Sea dispute.

Although some Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders will express “serious concern” over the “escalation of activities” in the disputed sea, ASEAN will drop references, or even allusions, to China’s construction of artificial islands and the military hardware it has placed on them, according excerpts of the draft seen by Reuters.

♦April 26th – President Trump invites all U.S. Senators to the White House for a classified briefing on North Korea.

♦April 28th – (THIS FRIDAY) U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be traveling to the U.N. to speak to the Security Council personally.

Apr 26 2017

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Talks To Lou Dobbs….


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 25, 2017 by

Ah, the simple joys in life.  Wilburine Ross interviewed by Lou Dobbs… Sip slowly.

The general status of angst created by ordinary swamp review has a tendency to wear down a soul. It’s at the times when we feel surrounded we should reflect upon how lucky we are to have the T’Rex’s and Wilburines on our team. We’ve already won, our opponents just haven’t noticed yet.

Apr 26 2017

White House Responds to Judge Orrick Defunding “Sanctuary City” Injunction…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 26, 2017 by

Apr 26 2017

Does Schäuble want Draghi to Exit the Stage Once & For All?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Apr 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Draghi Schauble

Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble of Germany is starting to show signs of rebellion against the elite in Brussels. With the event of BREXIT, the EU is more concerned about trying to punish Britain than they are in reflecting upon what is going so terribly wrong. They will throw their support behind Macron in France fearing that a Le Pen win may be the end of Brussels. Consequently, the EU Commission is trying to punish Britain, and is actually dividing Europe once again. There will be the EU membership, and then there will be the Eurozone within, limited to those countries who surrender their sovereignty to Brussels relinquishing their currency, but not their debt.

Schäuble is clearly attempting to save the Eurozone and make it operational at the same time to protect German exports within Europe. The driving force behind the Euro was to eliminate foreign exchange risk so German manufacturers could sell to all of Europe on a regular basis without currency fluctuation disturbing their sales.

Yet Schäuble is actually looking at reducing the power of the EU for reading between the lines, he has no confidence in the abilities of the EU Commission to manage Europe. Obviously, BREXIT is restructuring the EU only insofar as they seek to punish Britain rather than reform the problems that caused it. That means the Euro zone will be restructured as a block within the EU leaving the institutions, such as the ECB, applicable to the EU. The rules within the Eurozone are by no means clearly defined. This is how Markel opened the gates to refugees without ever going to a vote first in the EU. Thus, the unilateral decisions of Germany have then been applied to all of Europe without any democratic process whatsoever.

Schäuble is looking at the distinction between the EU and the Eurozone and thus reducing the power of the EU Commission to save the Eurozone – a second Europe within Europe, of which Britain was never a member. Schäuble attacked the ECB and Mario Draghi saying: “The ultralock money policy that exists in many regions is not helpful.”  Schäuble said this opening on his trip to Washington. The ECB, Schäuble argues, is creating risks such as asset price bubbles with its negative interest rate policy. This is the clash of philosophies with Schäuble’s view on AUSTERITY.

Schäuble demanded a change of direction from Mario Draghi. He warned that Draghi was increasing the risk of creating a whole new crisis rather than lessening it. The Federal Reserve reverse course right after 2015.75 on the ECM that targeted October 1st, 2015 with the first rate hike in December 2015. Schäuble remarked that it “would not be a bad idea if the European Central Bank and other central banks followed” the course of the Fed. Schäuble has clashed with Draghi who still considers his stimulus quantitative easing policy of the ECB still necessary. Draghi said on this trip to Washington that a “very significant amount of monetary easing is still needed.”

Schäuble has also proposed that the basic structure of the Eurozone in the form of budgetary policy must be changed. Schäuble remains rightly concerned what happens when Draghi changes course and raises rates. Schäuble is deeply concerned that national debts will then explode with higher interest rates. For this reason, Schäuble wants the euro rescue umbrella ESM in the near future converted to a European Monetary Fund. Schäuble sees this as a European version of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). If a new aid program for a crisis country were to run without the IMF because the IMF has disagreed with the draconian measures imposed upon Greece. Schäuble wants to replace the IMF to impose austerity. Apparently, Schäuble has also convinced Chancellor Angela Merkel of this proposal since the IMF disagrees with the austerity ideas of Schäuble.

Troika-Unelected

This new European Monetary Fund to replace the IMF, which is a member of the Troika, will then be given the task of budgetary monitoring of Eurozone countries. Therefore, we will have the EU, but a separate system within the EU for the Eurozone all based upon extending austerity. This is obviously a disempowerment of the EU Commission.

Greece is still an unsolved problem – and Schäuble also sees that Greece should exit the Eurozone. Schäuble also sees a better partnership with Russia and an emancipation from the USA. This was really based upon German manufacture having a new market to sell into given the rise of Donald Trump. Then Schäuble wanted a nuclear Europe to stand against America and Russia. Schäuble’s view is that the core of Europe is Germany, France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. It never included Britain. The Franco-German axis was to become the economic engine of the future. To Schäuble, the core is simply the Euro for that evens the playing field for Germany to sell products into Europe. He has embraced the Euro, but never accepting a federal debt for Europe. This is why he has never seen Italy, Spain or Greece as the core of the EU – just vassal states to sell products to.

Apr 26 2017

Le Pen Seeks to Broaden Her Support


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Apr 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

2017 Election

French Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen says she is temporarily stepping down as head of her National Front party. She is still in the race, just attempting to distance herself a bit more from her party to broaden her appeal. The May 7 run-off between herself and Emmanuel Macron, will be interesting for it is a test of how strong the populist movement has become.

People who think “populist” is a particular philosophy are seriously wrong. It was a “populist” movement that put FDR in the White House in 1933. It also put into power Lenin, Hitler and Mao. “Populist” is effective the label applied to any movement Indeed, FDR actually did embrace many elements of fascism, which differs from communism insofar as it supported worker unions and the ownership of business run by the workers. The Populist movement was in fact Marxism during the late 19th century, which manifested into Communism, fascism, and socialism. All three were constructed upon a strong central power of government to different degrees.

“Populist Movements are not particularly a single right or left philosophy. The term is applied to effectively an anti-establishment movement against the status quo.

Le Pen said “Tonight, I am no longer the president of the National Front. I am the presidential candidate,” on French public television news. She hopes that by distancing herself from the party founded by her father in 1972, more people will reach out to her for real change in France. Le Pen hopes to tap into the Eurosceptic and protectionist voters in other parties. The underling trend is certainly anti-EU throughout all of Europe to varying degrees.

Macron is the favorite of Brussels and all the politicians nobody wants to vote for, so what does that really tell you? All the politicians are cheering only because they do not want any real change. They like everything as is – thank you very much they say off camera. But Macron is really out there in la la land. Those who think Trump says some crazy stuff, should turn and look at Macron. How about these!

“I’ve always accepted the vertical dimension, of transcendence, but, at the same time, it has to be utterly anchored in the immanent, in the material.”

Ok, not sure what that means at all. How about this one!

“We all have our roots. And because we all do, there are trees next to us, there are rivers, there are fish. There are brothers and sisters …”

Ok roots and trees go together. What about the rivers and fish? Brothers and sisters is family. Does everyone come from fish out of the river?

If he will be the new face of France, I would probably want to double short the Euro when the cycle changes.

Apr 25 2017

Wilbur Ross Hits Canada With Soft Wood Import Tariff…


Re-Posted from the Conservative Tree House on April 25, 2017 by

How do you get congress to accept the NAFTA notification of intent letter? Why, you backstop the Canadian decision to undermine U.S. dairy farm exports by applying equity import tariffs and offsetting losses to U.S. manufacturers.

First stop, lumber mills. ie U.S. regional impacts, not coincidentally, represented by key Democrat constituents.

The congressional delegations from Washington State and Oregon happen to be mostly elected Democrats; and they happen to applaud the efforts; which means they are not able to criticize the approach. Hmm, it’s almost as if Wilburine and POTUS had a strategy or something.   Nah, couldn’t be.

(Via CNN) These are the first tariffs imposed by President Trump, who during his election campaign threatened to use them on imports from both China and Mexico. The decision on Monday is bound to lead to a standoff and could stoke fears of a trade war between the US and Canada, two of the world’s largest trade powers.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the tariffs, or taxes, announced Monday evening were being imposed after trade talks on dairy products fell through.

“It has been a bad week for US-Canada trade relations,” Ross said in a statement. Trump’s tariffs come as the US, Canada and Mexico prepare to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade agreement among the three countries that came into being in 1994. Trump has directed almost all of his NAFTA criticism at Mexico, which makes this decision even more surprising.

When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau visited Trump in February, Trump said he only expected to be “tweaking” the US-Canada trade relationship.

The tariffs — also called duties — ranged from 3% to 24% on specifically five Canadian lumber companies. For all other Canadian lumber companies, there’s a nearly 20% duty imposed on exports to the US.

The five firms were: West Fraser Mills, Tolko Marketing and Sales, J.D. Irving, Canfor Corporation, and Resolute FP Canada. West Fraser Mills will pay the highest duty of 24%.

The duties were imposed to create a level playing field for American lumber companies.

U.S. lumber companies allege Canadian firms are provided with unfair subsidies by the Canadian government.

Canadian exports of softwood lumber to the U.S. were valued at $5.6 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department.

The Commerce Department said the duties are preliminary and a final determination will be made in September. The U.S. Lumber Coalition, which represents the industry, said the duties will likely take effect starting sometime next week. The Commerce Department wasn’t available to clarify. (read more)

REACTION: Senator Ron Wyden (Democrat-Oregon.), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, applauded the Commerce Department’s decision.

“Unfairly traded softwood lumber from Canada has for decades hurt mill towns and American millworkers in Oregon and across the country,” Wyden said.

“Today’s announcement sends the message that help is on the way,” he said. (link)

Apr 25 2017

The Fate of the Euro


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Albert Einstein We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.

QUESTION: The bounce in the Euro is a fool’s’ game?

ANSWER: Absolutely. The Euro is doomed because especially if Le Pen loses, Brussels will be relieved and proceed as usual. The same problems will merely exist and no reform will come forward to save the day. A good wind will blow over the European banking system. You are expecting politicians to admit they were wrong and surrender power in Brussels. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. As Einstein said, you will NEVER solve the problem of the Euro with the same thinking process.

IBEUUS-M 4-24-2017

As weekly closing above the 10860 level in the Euro will imply the rally will press high to test the 112-114 level. Just look at the technical perspective on a monthly level. The Downtrend Line stands in May up at 12622. We are nowhere near reversing the trend in the Euro.

We have the French, British, and then German elections here in 2017. We do not expect total chaos before 2018. That seems to be the point of a major shift.

Apr 25 2017

If US Election Were Held today – Trump Would Get More Votes Polls Show


Armstrong Economics Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Re-Posted Apr 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Trump Sworn In

The latest polls show that most people who voted for Trump are satisfied. When the same questions have been asking about Hillary, the opposite response appears. The polls are actually showing that Trump would win a greater margin today than last year. This is interesting for it is confirming the collapse in government with Big Bang that began on October 1st, 2015.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Big Bang was the start of the collapse in confidence in government. This cycle should intensify starting in 2018 running head long into 2020. This is all good for the volatility in markets we see ahead. This is the same trend that produced BREXIT and just wiped out all mainstream parties in France.

Apr 24 2017

The French Elections & Socrates


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Apr 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I saved you article from November 25th last year where your computer forecast the collapse of mainstream politics. Macron was not even in the picture back then. Have you recalculated now that all the parties collapsed and it is Macron v Le Pen?

Image12

ANSWER: I am very familiar with France. I was supposed to debate Michel Sapin, the Finance Minister of France on national TV. He backed out.

As you can see in that article, the only way to approach this is to look at the philosophy rather than the party since we were showing that the parties would collapse as they have done. I concluded that article writing:

“Clearly, the socialists are finished. However, we are within this 10 year window between 2013 and 2023. This clearly shifts the favor toward a new power. Le Pen can win within this window. However, expect this to be also very divisive as in the United States.”

We could extrapolate and say all other party members will vote for Macron. However, that would just be a guess. The wildcard now is we know that Le Pen will get probably 30% for that is her hardcore base. The question becomes, what portion of the other parties will now vote for Le Pen. Keep in mind that the Euro will rally as fools think this will save the day if she loses. Such an event will only postpone the inevitable for the same thinking process will remain in place.

Einstein solving

Categories: France, Politics