Apr 13 2024

Opening Your Eyes or Remain as the Fool on the Hill

Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.

Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.

Jeb

That Post 2/24/24 Was:

The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.

ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.

I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.

Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.

All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery. I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?

No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market. Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.

The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.

The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.

NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE

Apr 12 2024

“The FED’s Calling Us Stupid”: Brat On How The FED’s Putting Down Half The Country With Policies

Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 11, 2024 at 02:00 pm EST

Apr 11 2024

Canada Accuses India of Election Interference

Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) issued a report accusing India and Pakistan of interfering in Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021. India has called the claims “baseless,” but the CSIS said it will be on the hunt for meddling during the upcoming election.

“It is not Government of India’s policy to interfere in democratic processes of other countries. In fact, quite on the reverse, it is Canada which has been interfering in our internal affairs. We have been raising this issue regularly with them. We continue to call on Canada to take effective measures to address our core concerns,” stated India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

Canada’s next election is not until October 2025, but polls show that Canadians are eager for a change in leadership. A poll from January conducted by Nanos Research found that 46% of Canadians would like to cast their vote in 2024. The Canada Elections Act of 2007 changed the timeline for general elections, which are to be held the third Monday of October every four years. Yet, an election could be held earlier, according to Election Canada, “as long as it is no later than five years after the previous election.”

People are simply losing confidence in their government leaders. Canadians are not happy with their current conditions and want Trudeau out. As is common, his administration now must blame foreign interference for his loss in popularity.

The CSIS was granted extended powers by the Liberal government in 2015 under Bill C-51, the Anti-Terrorism Act. The CSIS is now able to actively interfere with potential terrorist activities, such as censoring websites, blocking the freedom of movement, or de-banking individuals as they did to the truckers during the Trucker Convoy.

“We have known for many, many years that many different countries take an interest in engaging in Canadian institutions and sometimes influencing, sometimes interfering, in the work of Canadian institutions,” Trudeau said. “I can assure people that we will continue to do everything necessary to prevent interference from whatever country it comes from.”

Threat-reduction matters could include parking a cop car outside of a potential terrorists home; government intimidation. They believe Sikh Canadians are being forced to vote in alignment with Indian policies, therefore, the CSIS will be watching them closely as the next election approaches.

There is no concrete evidence that an outside source interfered in Canada’s elections but that is not preventing the government from attacking foreign nations and alerting the public that they will be taking preventative measures to ensure the public votes accordingly.

Apr 11 2024

Paper Bonds – Another Strike Against Govt Debt

Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

The US Treasury stopped issuing paper savings bonds in January 2012, switching to online platforms. There is a slight exception where a paper Series I may be purchased with proceeds from a federal income tax refund, but they are extremely rare. What they failed to explain is that US banks are NOT required to cash in these bonds.

A friend’s daughter recently ran into an issue on her 30^th birthday when she attempted to cash in a number of bonds that had finally matured. Her bank simply told her, “No. We will not cash them.” She called customer service, and the bank explained that they had no legal obligation to cash government bonds.

She was told She was told to mail in the paper bonds to with a completed FS Form 1522 to the Treasury directly along with copies of her personal government-issued identifications. Obviously, this does not seem secure as mail is lost all the time regardless of tracking numbers.

There are currently no options to cash paper savings bonds online. The government has made it deliberately difficult to cash in these bonds. She attempted a loophole where you previously were able to redeem bonds at larger institutions if they were worth under $1,000, but still, she her request was declined.

According to Treasury Direct, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” We have seen numerous banks fail and begin to consolidate. Regional banks are struggling with liquidity and larger institutions simply do not want to hand out cash if they’re not required to do so.

Naturally my friend wished those 30-year bonds were invested in equities or anything other than bonds. She would have made far more than the government bonds could ever provide, and now it will be a difficult task to snail mail personal information to the Treasury and await a response. Yet another strike against purchasing government debt.

Apr 10 2024

Violent Crime in Germany Hits 15-Year High

Posted Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Germany was once a safe nation. Violent crime has reached a 15-year high, with homicides, knife assaults, and rapes drastically increasing. Crime rose by 5.5% last year alone, with 6.6 million incidences reported. Other nations like the UK, US, Canada, France, Sweden, Finland, and everywhere else that permitted, if not encouraged, open border policies have also seen an uptick in crime but no one wants to point out the obvious.

Migrants were responsible for around 40% of violent crimes in Germany last year, but the non-German national population only composes 15% of the population. Angela Merkel sold off Germany in 2015 when she urged all refugees to come to Europe to seek a better life. The migrants never stopped showing up. Germany handled over 350,000 asylum applications in 2023, and that only accounts for those who went through the judicial process.

The left refuses to hold migrants responsible for crimes and will not acknowledge that different cultures simply do not integrate well into Western societies. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants are simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” she stated. Politicians like Kaddor do not care about the safety of their constituents and will never back away from open border policies.

The migrant crisis is deliberate and apparent in all Build Back Better nations. These people are living off of the government, are unvetted, and have no allegiance to their new homebase. Southern European nations are in an even worse state as boatloads of new migrants wash upon their shores daily. Merkel humiliated Greece during the bail-out process, and now the European Union as a whole has its foot on the necks of all nations under its control. No one voted to allow these migrants into their hometowns. It is hard to say that Europeans live in a democracy as they are under the control of the European Union, which is following orders from the World Economic Forum these globalists do not merely want a one-European government but a one-world government where the few rule the masses.

Apr 10 2024

US Failing to Add 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs

Posted originally on Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

I have already criticized the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. The mainstream media is cheering the 303,000 position boost as proof that the American economy is on the right path. I noted in an earlier blog post that the number of part-time workers rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, as Americans cannot afford the current cost of living even with wages rising 4.1% YoY.

One additional aspect—not a single manufacturing job was added to the US economy in March. The BLS claims that manufacturing jobs held steady at 12,956,000 from February, although 10,000 manufacturing positions were cut in January.

The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was intended to expand American manufacturing. As Yellen and others have openly stated, the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s most expensive spending package, was intended to promote the climate change agenda.

Clean energy manufacturing is not profitable and, therefore, not expanding. “According to third-party estimates, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy tax incentives have the potential to drive investment that will support more than 1 million jobs in energy and related manufacturing sectors over the coming decade,” the US Department of Treasury stated in October 2023.

“To receive increased credit and deduction amounts under the Inflation Reduction Act, taxpayers must:

Pay workers the local prevailing wage, defined in accordance with Department of Labor standards, for work on facility construction, as well as for alterations and repairs in a five-to-twelve-year period, depending on the credit, after a facility is placed in service.
Hire a sufficient proportion of workers from registered apprenticeship programs, including hiring these qualified apprentices for at least 10% of the labor hours spent on facility construction, alteration, or repair work (rising to 12.5% for facilities where construction begins in 2023 and 15% in 2024 and later years)

The prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions apply to:

the Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C)
the Production Tax Credit (45, 45Y)
the Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration (45Q)
the Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen (45V)
the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)
the Investment Tax Credit (48, 48E)
the Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C)
the Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction (179D)

In addition, the prevailing wage provision will apply to:

the New Energy Efficient Home Credit (45L)
the Zero-Emission Nuclear Power Production Credit (45U)”

The private sector does not wish to invest in alternative or renewable energy projects. The tax credits are not enough of an incentive. The US Department of the Treasury mistakenly believed that the act would provide “taxpayers with a strong incentive to meet high labor standards as they build projects” and “expand well-paying union jobs and support proven pathways into the industry that allow workers to earn while they learn.”

Manufacturing is in fact not expanding. The regulations in place have made it difficult for existing factories to expand or bring on more workers.

Apr 9 2024

Strong Jobs Report Does Not Mean Strong Economy

Posted originally on Apr 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

One thing that analysts fail to explain is that Americans have begun working multiple jobs since the COVID pandemic that wrecked the global economy. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in March, but there are millions of Americans holding multiple jobs who can still not keep up with the cost of living even with wages up 4.1% in the past year.

Around 5.3% of the US workforce held more than one job, on the books, in 2019 but that slowed during the pandemic when businesses were unable to open. In September 2022, 4.9% of American workers (7.7 million people) held more than one job (on the books) as the economy began to slowly recover but that trend did not stay in motion due to rampant inflation and the cost of living. By October 2023, 5.2% of the US workforce (8.4 million people) held more than one job.

Women are more likely than men to work multiple jobs. And we wonder why there is a birth rate crisis. Around 6% of US women in the workforce had two or more jobs by October 2023 compared to 4.7% of men.

Now these are simply the figures for those working on the books. The Biden Administration killed the gig economy when Americans relied on it the most by imposing numerous regulations that forced companies to classify contractors as employees. Then we have states carelessly raising the minimum wage, eliminating the number of available jobs, and raising costs for businesses overall.

Only 62.7% of abled Americans are participating in the workforce. This does not include the 7.4+ illegal migrants who cannot obtain working permits but rely on government aid. Then they “revise” the jobs report every month, with January’s overwhelming report of 353,000 new jobs now down by 27,000, and February’s posting shedding 5,000. Then if you read between the lines, the number of part-time workers, who do not have benefits, rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, but this is drastically understated as many people work under the table or in odd jobs.

The jobs report is by no means an indication of a strong economy.