Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption
Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: It seems that as we get closer to a change-over of economic systems that as a society we are more willing to give up our rights to the State. Is that part of a pattern during these types of events? Was it seen as Britain, Rome, and other countries lost power after their peaks?
DS
ANSWER: Unfortunately, the trend first materializes when people need the government to protect them usually from an external force. The British used this tactic against both the French and the American colonists. That prompted Ben Franklin to comment on this trend.
After the 3rd Century Monetary Crisis bottomed in the Roman Empire in 268 AD, there was a surge to build a wall around Rome by Emperor Aurelian following the same pattern. Aurelian saw the corruption that led to the debasement of the currency because those minting the coins were robbing the treasury. Aurelian moved to DRAIN THE SWAMP in Rome. When Aurelian returned to Rome in 271 AD after fighting off barbarians, he had to pacify a terrified city. He immediately halted the rioting and restored order to the capital. The controller of the mint in Rome began a rebellion over the monetary reforms laid out by Aurelian. He ordered that all the debased currency be purchased back and replaced with a new currency of higher content in silver. The rebellion was led by Felicissimus.
It appears that those who had been running the mint were embezzling the intended silver and issuing the debased coinage at least in part on their own authority. Obviously, any reform to the monetary system that called for an increase in silver content would have been unprofitable for those running the mint for personal gain. In the rebellion, as many as 7,000 soldiers died when Aurelian was forced to trap and execute them and their allies, some of the senatorial rank, in a terrible battle on the Caelian Hills.
Aurelian then constructed a wall around Rome — the first of its kind. Clearly, there was both a DRAINING OF THE SWAMP and a sense of security that people surrendered in the name of safety. The final phase comes when the suppression of liberty continues to become oppressive and therefore the people eventually wake up and see that the government is using this as a tactic to sustain or grab more power usually in self-defense.
Why Japan Lost So Big Post-1989
Armstrong Economics Blog/Japan
Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi Marty, I come from a golfing family and remember very well the shock when a Japanese investment group bought the Pebble Beach Golf Links, in 1990, for $850 million. The previous October Japanese investors bought the Rockefeller Center, triggering a flurry of Japanese purchases of signature U.S. properties such as Pebble Beach.
Was all this investment caused by The Plaza Accord in 1985, which devalued the USD by 40 percent? Which, as you’ve pointed out, also devalued American assets held by Japanese, igniting a sell-off of American investments and the 1987 crash. With cash repatriated back to Japan, the capital inflows into Japan ran the Nikkei up to its peak, in 1989. Within this late-80s early-90s timeframe, this is when the Japanese made their global malinvestments such as Pebble Beach, which they sold just two years later, in 1992, for $500 million, taking a 42 percent loss. Do I have the correlations and causations correct?
Thanks,
TGM
ANSWER: Yes. The Japanese bought US assets at the peak of their markets in 1989. As you can see, the dollar against the yen kept falling into April 1995. Not only did the Japanese lose money on US assets, but they also lost, even more, when they sold them and converted it back to yen on the decline in the dollar.
Currency is EVERYTHING. It dramatically alters the capital flows and can destroy economies because people remain clueless about how foreign exchange markets even function. That should be no surprise since they still teach all the economic theories of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate era including Keynesianism.
That is why everyone in the field is self-taught. You cannot get a degree in hedge fund management. Christine Lagarde of the IMF and soon to be head of the European Central Bank is a lawyer with no experience in funds management. People run for president spouting economic promises without the slightest background even in economics. What they teach in school has become ever more irrelevant in the real world. Other than a doctor or lawyer, it is hard to find someone who is working in the field in which they obtained a degree
Gold in Currencies
Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange
Re-Posted Sep 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello Marty,
I have a question about Gold & Silver in other currencies – namely GBP.
Accepting your rational, with evidence I must say, that precious metals are a reflection of the confidence people have in their countries currency, you can see from the price of gold & silver in GBP and EURO that leading up to the Brexit referendum until now confirms this. When you look at the ECM for this period – 2015.75 up to 2020.05 – you can see that there are three main waves to it. One wave down from 2015.75 to 2016.825, then three shorter wave from 2016.825 to 2018.89 – single consolidation wave?, then a third wave down from 2018.89 to 2020.05. Gold & Silver rallied, consolidated, then rallied again within this ECM period. Does Gold & Silver have their own internal cycle? Will your upcoming report include content on Gold & Silver in other currencies? The trade in Gold:GBP since the ECM turning point of 2015.75 has been very lucrative
– thanks for your service and opening up Socrates for us.
Regards,
AJ
England.
ANSWER: When you plot gold in dollars and pounds, you can see the steepness in the pound. This has been the strength in gold in dollars. It has been the hedge, not against fears of inflation in the USA, but it has risen in the face of the fear of a recession OPPOSITE of its previous relationships. This is all because we are approaching a Monetary Crisis Cycle.
Forecasting gold in dollars is pointless for that will be irrelevant to those in different countries. So yes, our report will be in terms of all the major currencies so people can make the appropriate decision in their own currency.
Why Did United States Enjoy Dramatic Improvements in Living During the Last Century?
Published on Aug 26, 2019
Socialism Does NOT Work | Daniel Hannan | Oxford Union
A Brecksville Council meeting in 2020, Part One
Jack Petsche and his “friends” are attempting a political take over of the city of Brecksville. Why he might be doing this is somewhat strange as Brecksville is one of, if not the best , run cities in Northeast Ohio. But lets assume Petsche has a better vision for Brecksville and if that is so there are only two versions possible. The first is the progressive version and the second is a grab for personal power. We already know that Brecksville is well run so could either of the two Petsche visions make it better for
Assuming Petsche is the “progressive visionary” that he claims he is than his slogan “A Better Brecksville” would be a progressive Utopia for Brecksville. Unfortunately a Utopia is not possible since humans are not perfect and so we are not capable of creating a Utopia as thousands of years of political history have shown us. Granted we are talking about a city and not a sovereign nation but all attempts at a Utopia or a perfect democracy have turned ugly a short time after they are started. The following U tube shows how a “woke” meeting might be held in Brecksville. I’ts very clear that not much good could come out of situations like this where there is no order.
Unfortunately, what always does happen is that some faction of the group takes over with an iron fist and the peoples views are suppressed to the will of those in power. I don’t think anyone in Brecksville would like living in a city run like Venezuela.
In part two of Petsche’s vision for Brecksville we will look at the other possibility of a Petsche regime.
2020 Election Analysis: Sanders, Biden & Warren in 3-Way Tie for Second Place
Martin Armstrong now in Asia with a Front Row Seat
Armstrong Economics Blog/China
Re-Posted Sep 1, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: How long will you be here in Asia?
PP
ANSWER: It is very interesting that we have clients on both sides of all these disputes here in Asia, except in North Korea. The great concern is that if China did send into Hong Kong troops, would they leave? Would this tip the scales of Hong Kong as a financial center? Will Thailand and Singapore continue to benefit from this shift in Asia. Then there is the India crisis.
This is very interesting because we have clients on all sides here. We have held WEC conferences in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bangkok, and Singapore. So we have always been well entrenched throughout Asia and we are inside China where Socrates publishes forecasts each day on all the top Chinese stocks.
So we are here indeed with a front row seat addressing questions on each side from such diverse positions. It looks like this will be a while. We have a lot of clients in Asia.
Political Polarization – Are the Democrats Trying to Change American Politics by Opening Borders?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics
Posted Aug 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
There are trends which have unfolded in politics that cannot be repaired and reflect the decline in confidence in the government which is dominating the future into 2032. We face not only the polarization of politics which is emerging into hate politics, but we are also witnessing the attempt to subvert the political system for political power.
The loss of Hillary in the 2016 election has set in motion such hatred it is unbelievable. She blamed Russia for her loss, Comey, Trump, and anyone else she could point to by herself. The polarization in American politics she set in motion has gone so far, that this is clearly contributing to the model’s forecast that not merely will the United States decline and fall, but we can see how the 2020 election is shaping up which will be a real political war.
All the media is on board and are in full swing to desperately try to defeat Trump. There has been no president in American history who has been so attacked it is really astonishing. The press is doing what they accused Russia of – trying desperately to influence the people for 2020. The problem with this has been the polarization of politics. It is boiling down to the point where this is all about retribution and vengeance. That is only inspiring the hatred on the other side. The recent threat of the Democrats to stuff the court with their people is just an example. So if they get control and put in 9 of their justices, then when the cycle swings and the Republicans gain control, they stuff in 20?
The 2020 elections will be the most violent we have witnessed since the ’60s. We can see the country being torn apart at the very seams. This nonsense of the Democrats to create open borders and then allow them voting rights is just off the wall. This is a political ploy to change the voting population to seize the power of the United States.
I have told the story of how I was given the mandate from Hong Kong to negotiate with Australia to try to first buy land for Hong Kong to move to create a new sovereign nation. I negotiated with former Prime Minister Paul Keating. I was getting nowhere. I suggested Hong Kong be allowed to set up in the northern territory and formally become a state within Australia and that was rejected. It was finally just frustrating. I asked if this was a racial thing since I could have paid off Australia’s national debt? The response was no! If they allowed the people from Hong Kong to migrate to Australia, they were fleeing Communism and would change the demographics in Australia and that meant they would never vote for Labour – which was his party in power. They feared allowing the people from Hong Kong to migrate to Australia would turn the country conservative.
Based upon my personal experience, I see this position of the Democrats in the same light. What they are really doing by allowing as many people in from South America is to hopefully change the political demographics. They believe these people would then vote Democrat and they will be able to crush Americans and impose all their policies that they have been unable to secure at the ballot box. AOC and Rep. Ilhan Omar of the squad go as far as making this even racial saying that it is people of color that are being denied access which is a code word for this entire battle over immigration.
The US has stiff immigration laws. We have people from many countries that work in the company and having to deal with visas just so they can come even to our US conferences requires explanations. We cannot hire someone from overseas to work in the USA without proving they have special skills we cannot find in the USA. So I know first hand what is involved and the problems. Yet AOC and the Squad want open borders with Mexico with no skills which contradict everything we have to do with people from Asia or Europe.
The Democrats in California have rejected any test for citizenship and have said that illegal aliens can not only enjoy the Sanctuary status of California but can even hold a position on government committees. It appears the way to secure power is to use immigration
Centinel2012 