The Dow & Volatility


With the CBOE Volatility Index (STOXX: .VIX) at its lowest level in over 10 years, many people call this the fear gauge and are concerned that people have become complacent. The VIX, is by no means a perfect measure of overall fear in the market. How we measure volatility depends upon the formula. Here are just three indicators of volatility each measured differently (1) internal being the different between the high and low of that session, (2) the close to close degree of volatility, and then (3) overnight volatility which is measured from the day’s close to the next day’s open.

The VIX is not a perfect indicator and it is different from how we look at volatility. You can see here that we ran our Internal Volatility measurement on the VIX and the low was January 2012. Here is the comparison on the Dow so you can see where the VIX low took place whereas our Internal Volatility has declined since that period of time.

The biggest risk to volatility going forward was Trump’s dismissal of Comey. This could now act as a battle cry to stop his tax reform – very stupid decision.

Trump Fires Comey – Right Decision – Wrong Timing


Trump fired Comey who was the head of the FBI. Trump said he fired Comey for his handling of an election-year email scandal involving then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. This is a perfectly valid argument, but he should have done that some time ago. Removing Comey now has only raised suspicions among Democrats and the Republic Elite who both want to stop Trump from really reforming anything for they like their perks as is. Worse still, this was a stupid decision that may now put in jeopardy his whole tax reform.

The timing of this is really bad when it is the FBI probe that is involving Russia and the claims that his people were in contact with Putin. Some Democrats compared this move to the “Saturday Night Massacre” of 1973, when President Richard Nixon fired an independent special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal.

Trump should have had better judgment in this matter. I question his real motives because he had plenty of time to fire Comey and should have done so for his whitewash of Hillary. Moreover, Comey was the Assistant US Attorney in the Southern District of New York – the most corrupt judicial post in the nation. Comey always did his part in protecting the bankers. His whitewash of Hillary was interlinked with that position and should have been questioned long ago.

Nevertheless, this raises concerns about Trump’s political advisers. Are they really this stupi

Macron to Hand All Sovereignty to Brussels


Emmanuel Macron’s victory promises no change for Europe and it has been the blessing Brussels wanted so badly to further advance the federalization of Europe. Macron will surrender far more French sovereignty to Brussels than anyone suspects. Macron is a technocrat and the youngest President in France ever at 39. His message of surrendering the sovereignty of France was the subtle use at his rally in Paris of the European anthem, Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” rather than the Marseillaise. This was indeed a powerful gesture of a surrender to Brussels that will be full and complete. It also signal there will be no change in direction or reform.

The New York Times called the defeat of Marine Le Pen, was a battle against the evil forces of “xenophobic nationalism exploited by President Donald Trump.” They also reported that this is the end of populism as expected for they classified BREXIT as “Britain’s dismal decision last year to leave the European Union, and in the face of Trump’s woeful anti-European ignorance, was critical” to Macron’s victory. It is just stunning how the New York Times cheers on the EU and socialism yet never looks at the data to see if they are correct in pronouncing that the EU has created growth rather than destroyed it.

The New York Times and their biased position will NEVER bother to just look at the numbers. GDP growth in Britain peaked in 1973 and has declined ever since joining the EU. So what’s the problem? Are the people at the New York Times blind, stupid, the party idiot, or just too corrupt to be objective?

If Macron was in the USA, they would be calling for the prosecution of his wife as a child molester. They met when he was 15 years old and she was his high school teacher at 40 years old. When his parents found out he was romantically involved with his teacher when she was still married to the father of her three children. His were so stunned, they removed their teen son from the school and sent him to finish his education in Paris. Now he is the leader of France.

Secretary Tillerson Welcomes Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov To State Dept…


Earlier today, following a brief visit to the White House, Secretary Rex Tillerson welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department.

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STATE DEPT – “I want to welcome Foreign Minister Lavrov to the State Department and express my appreciation for him making the trip to Washington so that we can continue our dialogue and our exchange of views that began in Moscow with the dialogue he hosted on a very broad range of topics. Thank you.”

~ Secretary Rex Tillerson

Again, the multidimensional politics of how President Trump utilized the leverage of Comey’s firing to diffuse the toxic antagonism with the Russian relationship is so far beyond diplomatic history making – modern historians have not yet been born who can aptly outline its consequence.

♦ President Trump stroked the Chinese Panda perfectly in Mar-a-lago.
♦ Today President Trump tickled the Russian Bear.
♦ We have already seen the jaw-dropping benefits from the Panda.
♦ Now we get to watch the results from the Bear.

History in our lifetime, and yet the media can’t even fathom the scope and details within the execution of a strategy…. right down to the optics of the tie.

“complicated business folks,… complicated business”

Officials Being Interviewed for Interim FBI Position – With VP Mike Pence Interview…


(Via ABC) U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein are interviewing candidates to take over the FBI as interim director, after James Comey’s firing Tuesday.

Four candidates are being interviewed today, fielded from senior FBI and Justice Department officials and the heads of FBI field offices across the country, according to a Justice Department official.

The four candidates: FBI Executive Assistant Director Paul Abbate, who leads the agency’s cyber and criminal branch; National Counterintelligence Executive William Evanina; Special Agent Adam Lee, who runs the Richmond field office; and Special Agent Michael Anderson, who runs the Chicago field office.

A new FBI director is expected to be chosen and announced within the next 24 to 48 hours.

“The president is in the process of evaluating individuals who will be able to fill that spot, lead the FBI and restore the confidence in the American people,” Vice President Mike Pence said today on Capitol Hill.  (read more)

Watch Vice President Mike Pence:

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President Trump Announces Third Wave of Federal Judicial Nominations…


[ Via White House ] President Donald J. Trump today announced his third wave of Federal judicial appointments. These appointments follow the successful nomination and confirmation of Justice Neil M. Gorsuch to the Supreme Court of the United States and the nomination of Judge Amul R. Thapar of Kentucky to serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Specifically, the President today announced his nomination of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Amy Coney Barrett of Indiana will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. Amy Coney Barrett currently serves as the Diane and M.O. Miller II Research Professor of Law at the Notre Dame University Law School. Professor Barrett teaches and researches in the areas of federal courts, constitutional law, and statutory interpretation—publishing scholarship in leading legal journals, such as the Columbia, Virginia, and Texas Law Reviews. Before joining the Notre Dame faculty, Professor Barrett clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Laurence H. Silberman of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Following her clerkships, as an associate at Miller, Cassidy, Larroca & Lewin in Washington, D.C., she litigated constitutional, criminal, and commercial cases in both trial and appellate courts. Professor Barrett has also served as a visiting associate professor and John M. Olin Fellow in Law at the George Washington University Law School, and as a visiting associate professor of law at the University of Virginia. Professor Barrett received her B.A. in English literature, magna cum laude, from Rhodes College, and her J.D., summa cum laude, from the Notre Dame University Law School, where she served as Executive Editor of the Notre Dame Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, John K. Bush of Kentucky will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. John Bush is currently a partner in the Louisville office of Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP and is Co-Chair of the firm’s Litigation Department. Mr. Bush practices in complex litigation, including antitrust, securities, financial institutions, insurance, intellectual property, and product liability disputes. He has extensive litigation experience in state and Federal courts in many jurisdictions and in arbitration proceedings. Before joining Bingham Greenebaum Doll LLP, Mr. Bush practiced law at Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher LLP in Washington, D.C. Earlier in his career, Mr. Bush clerked for Judge J. Smith Henley of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Mr. Bush received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Vanderbilt University and his J.D., cum laude, from Harvard Law School.

♦ If confirmed, Joan L. Larsen of Michigan will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Justice Joan Larsen currently serves as the 111th Justice of the Michigan Supreme Court. Justice Larsen was appointed to the Court in 2015, and was then elected to that Court by the people of Michigan in 2016—winning every county in the state. Before assuming office, Justice Larsen served on the faculty of the University of Michigan Law School, where she was also special counsel to the Dean. An award-winning legal scholar, Justice Larsen taught for more than a decade at the University of Michigan, where she received the L. Hart Wright Award for Excellence in Teaching. Before joining the University of Michigan faculty, Justice Larsen clerked for Associate Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge David B. Sentelle of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Justice Larsen received her B.A. from the University of Northern Iowa and her J.D. from Northwestern University Law School, from which she graduated first in her class and where she served as an Articles Editor on the Northwestern University Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, Kevin C. Newsom of Alabama will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit. Mr. Newsom is currently the chair of the appellate group at Bradley Arant Boult Cummings, resident in the firm’s Birmingham office. Before joining Bradley, Mr. Newsom served as the Solicitor General of Alabama, where he directed the State’s litigation before the Supreme Court of the United States, the United States Courts of Appeals, and the Alabama Supreme Court. Mr. Newsom has argued four cases in the Supreme Court of the United States and has argued more than 35 cases in the United States Courts of Appeals for the Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Tenth, and Eleventh, and D.C. Circuits, as well as in state supreme and appellate courts and a Native American tribal appellate court. In addition to this service, Chief Justice John Roberts has twice appointed Mr. Newsom to the Advisory Committee on Appellate Rules, which advises the Judicial Conference of the United States concerning amendments and improvements in the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure. Earlier in his career, Mr. Newsom clerked for Associate Justice David Souter of the Supreme Court of the United States and for Judge Diarmuid O’Scannlain of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Mr. Newsom received his B.A., summa cum laude, from Samford University, and his J.D., magna cum laude, from Harvard Law School, where he served as an Articles Editor on the Harvard Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David R. Stras will serve as a Circuit Judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. Justice David Stras currently serves as a Justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court. Justice Stras was appointed to the Court in 2010. Before his appointment to the Minnesota Supreme Court, Justice Stras was a professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, while also serving as counsel at the Minneapolis law firm of Faegre & Benson. Earlier in his career, Justice Stras clerked for Associate Justice Clarence Thomas of the Supreme Court of the United States, Judge J. Michael Luttig of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, and for Judge Melvin Brunetti of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Justice Stras received his B.A. with highest distinction from the University of Kansas, his M.B.A. from the University of Kansas, and his J.D. from the University of Kansas School of Law, where he served as editor-in-chief of the Criminal Procedure Edition of the Kansas Law Review.

♦ If confirmed, David C. Nye of Idaho will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Idaho. Judge David C. Nye currently serves as an Idaho trial court judge in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye was appointed to the state trial court in 2007 and was reelected by the people of Idaho to that position in 2010 and 2014. Previously, Judge Nye was a partner at Merrill & Merrill, Chartered, in Pocatello, Idaho. Judge Nye received his B.A. and his J.D. from Brigham Young University.

♦ If confirmed, Scott L. Palk of Oklahoma will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma. Scott Palk currently serves as the Assistant Dean for Students and Assistant General Counsel at the University of Oklahoma College of Law in Norman, Oklahoma—a position he has held since 2011. Mr. Palk took this position after 19 years of public service as a state and Federal prosecutor, where he worked on death penalty, organized crime, and terrorism cases. Mr. Palk earned his undergraduate degree in Business Administration from Oklahoma State University and his J.D. from the University of Oklahoma College of Law.

♦ If confirmed, Damien M. Schiff of California will serve as a Judge on the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Damien Schiff is currently a Senior Attorney at the Pacific Legal Foundation, a non-profit legal organization based in Sacramento, California. Mr. Schiff has extensive experience litigating cases concerning a variety of Federal and state environmental and land-use issues, including Sackett v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a groundbreaking decision in which the United States Supreme Court upheld the right of landowners to challenge Clean Water Act compliance orders issued by the Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier in his career, Mr. Schiff clerked for Judge Victor J. Wolski of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Mr. Schiff received his B.A., magna cum laude, from Georgetown and his J.D., magna cum laude, from the University of San Diego School of Law in 2004.

President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Nominate Judicial Candidates

The President today announced his intent to nominate of these individuals to the following Federal judgeships.

♦ If confirmed, Dabney L. Friedrich of Washington, D.C., will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Dabney Friedrich has a lengthy career of distinguished public service. Most recently, Ms. Friedrich served as a Commissioner on the United States Sentencing Commission, where she established sentencing policies and practices for the Federal criminal justice system by promulgating guidelines for congressional review and recommending changes in criminal statutes. Prior to that service, Ms. Friedrich served as an Associate Counsel to the President during the George W. Bush Administration, as Chief Crime Counsel to Senator Orrin G. Hatch, as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, as a trial attorney at the Department of Justice, and as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of California. Before holding those positions, Ms. Friedrich clerked for Judge Thomas F. Hogan of the District of Columbia District Court. Ms. Friedrich received her B.A., magna cum laude, from Trinity University, her Diploma in Legal Studies from Oxford University, and her J.D. from Yale Law School, where she served as a Senior Editor on the Yale Journal on Regulation.

♦ If confirmed, Terry F. Moorer of Alabama will serve as a District Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama. Judge Terry F. Moorer currently serves as a Magistrate Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Alabama, a position he assumed in 2007. Before assuming his judgeship, Judge Moorer served as an Assistant United States Attorney in the Middle District of Alabama, as a Command Judge Advocate in Camp Arifjan, Kuwait, and as an attorney in the Office of Staff Judge Advocate in Fort Rucker, Alabama. Judge Moorer earned his Associate of Arts from the Marion Military Institute, his B.A. from Huntington College, and his J.D. from the University of Alabama Farrah School of Law.

(White House Link)

Canada’s Liberal Politics Behind Trudeau’s Antagonistic Trade Positions…


Actually, seeing this outlined in Reuters is a very good sign of things to come.  The pending NAFTA trade renegotiation between the U.S. (Trump/Ross) and Canada (Trudeau) correctly viewed through the prism of Canadian politics.  This is exactly the correct perspective.

The larger liberal need is for Trudeau to pander to the constituencies of Quebec, even if it means economic disaster and crushing collapse for the entire country of Canada.  This reality is exactly the ideological zero-sum perspective of the liberal mind and worldview.

Complete economic disaster is what Prime Minister Trudeau will do to Canada if he chooses to continue positioning against the U.S. with President Donald J Trump.

VIA REUTERS – Canada escalated a trade dispute with United States by making threats Washington called inappropriate in part because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under pressure to secure support in a key region ahead of the country’s 2019 elections.

Washington last month slapped tariffs on timber imports, prompting Trudeau to say he was considering a ban on exports of U.S. coal through Pacific ports.

As well as lumber, the administration of President Donald Trump has targeted Canadian dairy farmers, while Boeing Corp (BA.N) launched a trade challenge against Montreal-based planemaker Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO).

All three are vital to the economy of Quebec, Canada’s second most-populous province. And Quebec is seen as vital to Trudeau’s hopes of maintaining a strong grip on power in a national election set for October 2019.

As contentious talks on renegotiating NAFTA draw closer, Trudeau has little choice but to defend dairy farmers and offer help to the lumber industry, even though that is likely to prompt fresh U.S. challenges.

“Quebec is the key,” said one senior Liberal organizer.  (please read full article)

President Trump, Secretary Wilbur Ross and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer will absolutely crush any international trade opponent in direct bilateral trade deals.  It’s really not hard for them to do; we are the biggest market in the world.

Shutting down access to the U.S. ($20+ trillion) market is the ultimate leverage and entire national economies can be forceably wiped out.  In an applied fair market system the end result of any renegotiated trade deal will be vastly more beneficial to U.S. workers and business interests.  Stunningly so.

In addition to the size of our economy, America is profoundly unique in that there is almost no product on the planet that cannot be replicated in the United States.  We are blessed with an abundance of energy, raw material, minerals and rich fertile land that can provide the basis for domestically manufactured/created products.  It is a remarkable point of distinction not found in any other region.

Additionally, our inherent American DNA strain is one of entrepreneurial existence.  We know how to do things, create things, and think completely outside the box on new and innovative ideas for things.   Yes, we are exceptional like that.

Reminder:

  • Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering and efficiency superiority. They didn’t blow every global PhD business intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY….

  • When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take 5 years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in 6 to 10 months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

  • When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved everyone of them….

That’s our America.

  • When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his fourty-seven virgins, began opening fire on a train in France – the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little Islamic nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable storyline that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Let’s Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s make America great again”.  Swagger on !

 

Macron’s Victory May Be Disaster for Merkel


Angela Merkel was the first phone Emmanuel Macron made after the election.  My point about the election for Macron was the worst possible outcome for the Euro was not just reflected in yesterday’s outside reversal to the downside. Merkel has already made it clear that she will not relax  Eurozone spending rules to help Macron. The defeat of Le Pen has sealed the fate of Europe because there will be no reflection upon how to reform the EU to save Europe.

Only a sublime idiot would now think everything in Europe will be just great. We are looking at a major hard landing for Europe. Keep in mind that local governments even in the USA are doomed for all they can do is raise taxes further crushing their population and destroying their own economy.

Nonetheless, there is a lifetime in politics between the May victory for the establishment in France with Macron who cannot possibly help calm France and the election of Merkel in the fall. The biggest disappointment of Obama was being the first Black President, hopes were so high for a real change. When everyone saw he did the same thing as Bush, this set the stage for the Trump victory. Republic or Democrat offered nothing.

Our computer was correct in forecast the mainstream political parties in France would be defeated. That took place. Now the expectations are so high for Macron to change things, when the French people realize he is the same as what they had under Hollande, the backlash can still come before the German elections. The civil unrest in France is unbelievable. The tension there you can cut in the air with a knife.

Macron will fail and with him, the dream of Brussels.

The French Elections – What Now?


Macron won about 65% to Le Pen 35%. Even Obama came out in support of Macron which obviously confirms Macron is the supporter of the establishment – not change. The bias of the global press is clear in their labels. They label Emmanuel Macron as the “independent centrist” and Marine Le Pen as the “far-right” as applied by CNN – and we all know they are always for the establishment and against the people. Indeed, CNN seems to play the roll of Marie Antoinette who journalists reported she said “Let them eat cake” or in French “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche” upon learning that the peasants had no bread to eat, which back then was enriched with eggs and butter. Mainstream media has no regard for the people and only attempt to manipulate the people to maintain the status quo. Mainstream media do not want to rock the boat any more than the bankers. They want to keep everything as is and are distinctly part of the problem why we are in this economic mess. The mere fact Le Pen beat all the mainstream parties since World War II distinctly illustrates that all is not well in the land of Oz these people live in. Le Pen’s showing that about one-third of the population are fed-up with the status quo forewarns this is not over yet.

Still in France, that status quo is an economic storm of giant proportions that the Socialist Hollande has created destroying the French economy with every decree he introduced. France is a country that is bitterly divided and at great risk itself of yet another French Revolution. France is suffering from tremendous high unemployment, little to zero potential job growth, cursed by stagflation, and security worries that are the greatest among the European states. The unilateral act of Merkel accepting refugees supposedly from Syria that ended up being a wholesale invitation for anyone from all Islamic countries has devastated France who was never asked by Merkel in advance to accept these refugees. But Merkel’s unilateral act to save her own polls during her hardline position against Greece, demonstrated why the EU is a total failure. You have heads of states who can make independent decisions and the whole of Europe must suffer.

The French government has struggled to cope with immigration and integration crisis set in motion by Merkel, which is undermining both the French economy and French security. France has suffered terrorist attacks from the very people embraced by Merkel’s policy It is only a question of when will the next French Revolution unfold. Civil Unrest is also rising in France and this may lead to a much broader revolutionary movement. The terrorists who attacked Paris were then linked to the terrorist attack in Brussels.

History repeats because the passion of man never change. We are looking at France in the same strange position as when Louis XVI ascended to the throne. Then too the country was in the middle of a financial crisis and France was on the verge of bankruptcy. This was due in part to France’s costly involvements in the Seven Years’ War. In May 1776, finance minister Turgot was dismissed, after failing to enact reforms to correct the crisis.

On August 8th, 1788, the royal treasury was declared empty, and the Parlement of Paris, which was an assembly of nobles, refused to reform the tax system or loan the Crown any more money. To win their support for fiscal reforms, the Minister of Finance, Étienne Charles de Loménie de Brienne (1727 – 1794) , declared May 5th, 1789 for a meeting of the Estates General, which was an assembly of the nobility, clergy and commoners (called The third Estate), which had not met since 1614. Then on August 16th, 1788, the treasury suspended all payments on government debts going into default. Finally, on August 25th, Brienne resigned as Minister of Finance. He was replaced by Jacques Necker, a foreigner who was a Swiss banker. Necker was appointed Comptroller-General of Finance but could not be made an “official minister” because he was a Protestant.  Nevertheless, Necker was very popular with the common people.

On September 23rd, 1788, Necker reassured French bankers and businessmen should agree to loan the state 75 million livers, on the condition that the Estates General will have full powers to reform the system. The political turmoil was unleashed. On December 27th, 1788, over the opposition of the nobles, Necker announced that the representation of the Third Estate will be doubled, and that nobles and clergymen will be eligible to sit with the Third Estate.

The financial crisis was astute. Necker realized that the country’s tax system subjected the lower classes to a heavy burden and was extremely regressive, simultaneously, numerous exemptions existed for the nobility and clergy. Necker warned that the country could not be taxed higher. He further argued that the tax exemptions for the nobility and clergy had to be reduced. He also proposed that the government borrow more money to solve the country’s fiscal shortages.

Necker actually published his report to support this claim showing the accounting of the crisis. He actually underestimated the deficit by more than 36 million livres or 6 million silver Ecu. Necker proposed restricting the power of the Parlement to protect the nobility. Necker also argued to be made a minister giving him the power to push through reforms. The King refused and Necker was dismissed.

We have reached that crossroads of economics/civil unrest that runs throughout history. We are on the verge of a serious Sovereign Debt Crisis once again. Here too we have governments seeking to track every penny and to eliminate cash to begin to just seize money from people’s accounts while cancelling passports to prevent anyone from leaving a country if the government believe you have money they can tax.

Mix in the same factors, regardless of the century, and you end up with the same result. Only a fool ignores the past and says this is the 21st century. That is how history repeats because those people never look back and ask – if we do this, what will happen? There have been 21+ civil uprisings in France since 1229. That is in line with the 8.6 year frequency  (8.615 * 4.307) = 37.104. This does not bode well for the future as suspected.

With Obama’s endorsement, Macron appears to be in line with out model that forewarns of a real economic crisis in Euro as we head into 2018.

Macron’s Victory at 65% is Part I – Part II Parliament Elections in June


Le Pen conceded but will lead her Party in the Parliamentary elections next month. Macron paid a token gesture saying he understand the anger of 35% of the people who voted for Le Pen. Nevertheless, while the mainstream parties collapsed in France warning that the entire population really voted against the establishment, the sad part comes when the French people wake up and realize that Macron will not save France and if anything Brussels will now move aggressively to lock-down Europe to prevent another BREXIT. Brussels, based upon reliable sources, will seek to secure their own survival and move to federalize Europe to protect their own jobs.

To those who has asked if I would consult with Macron’s government, let me put it mildly. First, he will never call me and two, it would be a huge waste of time. This simply has to play out now. Brussels will NEVER reform or asking if there is something they are doing wrong. Europe will have to crash and burn politically before change will ever come.

The computer was correct back in 2015 when it projected Le Pen would beat both the Socialist and Conservatives. Now the second part of that forecast was just set in motion. There will be no reform for Europe so we are looking at a very hard landing.