Draghi ‘Put’ Steadies Stocks As Italian Banking System Collapses


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The Draghi put is still alive – or at least that’s what the market seems to think, judging by the response to the Italian vote outcome.

The Plunge Protection Team was very evident at the European open…

 

But as Bloomberg notes, while a rejection of Renzi’s reform proposals was expected, political instability and uncertainty over the fate of the country’s troubled banks aren’t fully priced in, and bank stocks are tumbling (after a panic bid at the open)…

 

And Italian bank bonds are a bloodbath…

 

And as the vicious circle between the sovereign and the banking system escalates, so Italian default risk is at 3 yeear highs…

 

But for now, the market seems to be relieved that the ECB will have yet another reason to extend QE when it meets later this week… which means Buy Euros?

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence


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The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.

Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which already appears to have been largely digested by the market, despite a variety of unknown consequences still to emerge. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.

As BofA notes, Mario Draghi’s interview in El Pais on the last day before the ECB starts its pre-meeting “quiet period” sets the landscape quite clearly. The decisions will come next week (in direct contrast with those who advocated waiting until January), tapering “proper” (i.e., winding down the programme) is not on the table, and the discussion on QE ultimately boils down to either continuing with the current pace of buying of EUR80bn for a relatively short period of time, or reducing the pace but buying for a longer period of time. Draghi did not hint at any personal preference there. It seems that both options would be consistent with “preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation” that is needed.

BofA, as well as Goldman and many other banks, expect Draghi to continue monetizing debt at a pace of €80bn per month until Sept. 2017 at the earliest, with flexibility on the capital key and moving the issue limit on non-CAC bonds.

Back to key economic events, the breakdown is as follows:

  • In the US we have ISM survey, trade balance, durable goods, wholesale inventories and U.Michigan index. Fed speakers currently on schedule are concentrated on Monday.
  • In the Eurozone, beyond the Italian referendum result and the ECB important releases include Eurozone PMIs (Final), October retail sales and 3Q GDP (Final).
  • In the UK, the main releases are PMIs, industrial production, trade balance and housing.
  • We also highlight the court hearings concerning government’s appeal against A50 ruling.
  • In Australia, the focus is on the RBA meeting as well as on the economic releases including trade balance, GDP and foreign reserves.
  • In Japan, we await releases on PMIs, GDP, trade balance and money supply.
  • In China, the main releases are trade balance and inflation.

* * *

A quick look at the global week ahead on a daily basis:

  • This morning in Europe we’re kicking off the week with the remainder of the November PMI’s which includes the final services and composite revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France, as well as a first look at the data for the UK and non-core. Euro area retail sales data for the month of October is also out today. In the US we’ll get the remaining PMI’s as well as the ISM non-manufacturing print for November and labour market conditions index.
  • Tuesday kicks off in Germany with the latest factory orders data before we then get the final Q3 GDP reading for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the October trade balance reading, Q3 unit labour costs and nonfarm productivity, October factory orders, December IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading and the final durable and capital goods orders revisions.
  • Germany gets things going again on Wednesday when we’ll get the latest industrial production report. French trade data and UK industrial and manufacturing production will also be released. The only data due out in the US on Wednesday is JOLTS job openings and consumer credit for October. China will also release November foreign reserves data at some stage.
  • The early data to get things going on Thursday comes from Japan where the final Q3 GDP reading will be released. China will then be following with important November trade data. There’s no data in Europe on Thursday but all eyes will be on the main event of the week, the ECB policy meeting outcome just after midday. The only data out of the US on Thursday will be initial jobless claims.
  • We close out the week in Asia on Friday with the November CPI and PPI prints in China. In Europe we’ll get trade data in Germany, industrial production data in France and trade data in the UK. Over in the US we’ll get the final October wholesale inventories report along with a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. Away from the data the Fedspeak this week all comes today with Dudley, Evans and Bullard scheduled.

* * *

Finally, here is a full summary of key US events, together with consensus and estimates from Goldman Sachs

Monday, December 5

  • 08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Association for a Better New York.
  • 09:11 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the Executives’ Club of Chicago’s CEO Breakfast. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, November final (consensus 54.7, last 54.7)
  • 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, November (consensus -0.2, last +0.7)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, November (GS 55.0, consensus 55.5, last 54.8): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to edge up to 55.0 in the November report, up from 54.8. While non-manufacturing surveys were mixed at the headline level, underlying details from the reports suggest that business activity improved modestly on net in November. The Dallas Fed (+9.6pt to +12.6) and the New York Fed (+6.4pt to -6.8, not seasonally adjusted) service sector surveys both strengthened, while the Philly Fed (-10.7pt to +10.6) and Richmond Fed (-4pt to +3) surveys softened. The Markit Services PMI also ticked down in November. Our non-manufacturing tracker stands at 53.3 for November, from 52.9 in October.
  • 02:05 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the W.P. Carey School of Business’ Economic Forecast luncheon at Arizona State University. Media Q&A is expected.

Tuesday, December 6

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$41.1bn, consensus -$42.0bn, last -$36.4bn): We expect the trade balance to widen in October to -$41.1bn. The Census Bureau’s new Advance Economic Indicators report showed a larger than anticipated trade deficit in October.
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 final (GS +3.4%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.1%): Unit labor costs (qoq), Q3 final (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We expect Q3 nonfarm productivity to be revised up to +3.4% (qoq ar) from 3.1%, primarily reflecting upward revisions to output. Unit labor costs are likely to be revised up to 0.8%.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.5%, last +0.3%): Factory orders likely moved up in October, following last week’s durable goods report which showed new durable goods orders were firmer than expected.
  • 10:00 AM Durable goods orders, October final (consensus +4.8%, last +4.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October final (last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, October final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, October final (last +0.2%)

Wednesday, December 7

  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, October (consensus 5,445, last 5,486): Consensus expects job openings to edge down in October following a slight gain in the September report. The layoff and discharge rate moved down to an all-time low for the series.
  • 03:00 PM Consumer credit, October (consensus $18.5bn, last $19.3bn)

Thursday, December 8

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 3 (GS 260k, consensus 255k, last 268k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 26 (consensus 2,048k, last 2,081k): We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 260k from 268k last week. Last week, initial claims rose more than expected, most likely due to temporary volatility resulting from the Thanksgiving holiday during the reference week.

Friday, December 9

  • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, October final (consensus -0.4%, last -0.4%)
  • 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 94.5, consensus 94.4, last 93.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to increase further to 94.5 in the December preliminary estimate, following an improvement in the November report. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a new cyclical high in the December report.

Source: BofA, Goldman, DB

Was Our System the Only One Correct or Were They Falsifying the Polls?


Curiousity-Question

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong, I was told by a friend that you forecast BREXIT and Trump and was the only one in the world to do so. I’ve been fascinated reading your site, particularly your discussion of Trump’s likelihood of winning when the polls and people gave him little chance. Can you possibly explain just how do you do this when nobody else can?

PG

ANSWER: This is an interesting question. I personally did not forecast these two events from an OPINION perspective and the withdraw of Hollande in France really confirms the end of the socialists also in line with our projections as well as the Italy referendum. The forecasts were done entirely by the computer, which is not biased nor can it get involved in an emotional call. Therefore, it is purely honest and creates forecasts that interlink with the economy. We hear nothing but promises of change, election after election, but the people are simply outraged that nothing ever changes for the better. Just follow the economy and you will forecast the end result.

I believe the question this really presents is something nobody is asking. Is it true that my computer was the ONLY one to correctly forecast both Brexit and Trump? These forecasts were indeed unique. Was everyone else wrong or were they trying to desperately manipulate society because they knew that Brexit and Trump might win?

Obviously, Hillary really believed she won. They even had her autograph an edition of Newsweek Magazine. Were they that wrong or did they think so convincingly that they had succeeded in their manipulation?

I am not sure. Perhaps we were the only ones to forecast these events simply because we are using economic data and not opinion polls. Yet, with 99% of the newspapers endorsing Hillary and Google allegedly skewing the search results to support Hillary, maybe they just believed too much in their own power.

If You Dance in a Bar in Brussels – You Must Pay a Tax


dancing-tax

The patrons of Bonnefooi, a cafe in the center of Brussels, last week received an inspector of the City to visit. Who asked them to pay the “tax dance.” Yes you read correctly. Brussels has a “dancing tax” written in the 50´s and as the government needs money, they have “revitalized” this tax since 2014. For every customer who dances in a bar the owner has to pay €0.40 per night.  They sent incognito civil servants to uphold this law.

There is an endless supply of old laws still on the books that have not been enforced, yet could be to raise money. In Florida, you are not allowed to have construction workers around on weekends. In some states, old laws required you to pull your car off the road if it frightened a horse. If the horse was still terrified, you were required to dissemble your car until the horse was calm.

They tried outlawing condoms back in the 1950s. That went to the U.S. Supreme Court in 1965 under Griswold v. Connecticut (1965), where the Supreme Court ruled that a state’s ban on the use of contraceptives violated the right to marital privacy. The case concerned a Connecticut law that criminalized the encouragement or use of birth control. Since the Supreme Court upheld Obamacare as a tax, anything goes. They can put a special tax on condoms and get away with that one and rake in billions.

Welcome to the world of collapsing socialism. This is where government get to rip us all off to survive.

The War on Cash – One Giant Leap Forward For Government


smart-phone-money

The European Payments Council (EPC), a subdivision of the European Central Bank, is taking one giant step forward in their quest to eliminate all cash to increase taxes. They have gone ahead and set up the technical bases last week to enable the immediate payments system throughout Europe. One of the stumbling blocks has been the fact you cannot transfer money same day for banks like to play with your money and holding it for a few days. If the payment comes from overseas, the bank will not “clear” the funds usually for six weeks.

Unless money can become instant, it is really impossible to eliminate cash. The SEPA Credit Transfer Scheme will move to allow instant transfers. The goal is to eliminate ATM machines and force people to pay using their mobile phone beginning in November 2017. Of course, there is nobody thinking about tourism. How will an American pay for something on a vacation in Europe? One suggestion behind the curtain I was recently briefed on was they could pay in advance and have an app that then pays for things in Europe.

The hunt for taxes is getting pretty bad. The entire reason for the introduction of passports was by the Roman Emperor Diocletian following the collapse during the 3rd Century. Diocletian introduced wage and price controls, and doubled the number of bureaucrats at the government’s command; Lactantius was to claim that there were now more men using tax money than there were paying it. A form of introducing a passport not to travel to foreign lands since civilization was the Roman Empire, but to be able to travel within the Empire because you could not leave your home town until you paid your taxes.

King Henry V of England (1387–1422) is credited with having invented what considered the first true international passport. The king saw this as helping his subjects prove who they were in foreign lands and not the subject of the king where they traveled. The reason for this 1414 Act of Parliament was legal. You were the property of your King. If you committed a crime in France, the French king could not punish you. He had to send you back to your king in chains noting the crime you committed and asked that you be punished by your king. This legal foundation of “jurisdiction” was not overthrown until the American Revolution, which gave birth to territorial jurisdiction. Since it was a revolt against monarchy, it was seen as implausible that if an Englishman committed a crime in America, that they would still recognize the authority of the king and send him in chains to Britain to be punished. This new idea of territorial jurisdiction is directly outlined in the 6th Amendment:

6th-amendment

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

Sunday Talks – General David Petraeus With George Stephanopoulos…


Former CIA Director David Petraeus, a potential candidate for Secretary of State, was interviewed by George Stephanopoulos earlier today. An interesting aspect – It appears Stephanopoulos, a …

Source: Sunday Talks – General David Petraeus With George Stephanopoulos…

trump-standing-in-gap411221112112111

Russian navy on combat alert as Ukraine begins missile launch drills near Crimea


More things to worry about!

Renzi to Resign – Italy Follows the Global Trend – Votes NO


renzi-votes

We are witnessing what a Private Wave is all about. The Italian Referendum came in on point with the NO vote at  59.4% against 40.6%. Our model is now four for four with BREXIT, Trump, Hollande in France exiting the election, and now Italy. We will see the same defeat for Merkel.

What politicians do not grasp is that they have destroyed the world economy with taxes and regulation. Enough is enough. In Europe, the single currency has totally failed because it required a single debt. The refusal to consolidate the debts has been the death of the Euro.

This is all playing out into a major dollar rally for like a game of musical chairs, it’s the last place to park money.

And Then There Was One


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So much has changed in just the 8 months since April 25, 2016, when this “White House Photo” of the day was taken.

As Will Jordan notes, the photo showed a meeting of the world’s top political leaders, President Barack Obama talking with European leaders before their meeting in Hannover, Germany.

From left: British Prime Minister David Cameron, the President, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande, and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

As of this evening, of the five, just one remains on the global political scene. The real question is for how much longer.

These Countries Have Nearly “Eliminated Cash From Circulation”


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The cashless society is catching up to all of us. As SHTFPlan.com’s Mac Slavo notes,

 Most of Europe has shifted that way, and now India is forcing the issue. In the United States, people are being acclimated to it, and may soon find that no other option is practical in the highly-digitized online world.

Once that takes hold, the banksters, bureaucrats and hackers will have total information on all your transactions, purchasing behavior, profiles about consumers, political and social background history and even predictive behavior, allowing them to control the population with ease.

If/when a major crisis hits, nothing will work if the grid goes down; nothing will take place that isn’t strictly authorized – apart from a barter and precious metals exchange system that will be marginalized to the pre-digital ghetto.

In fact, as The Daily Coin’s Rory Hall explains 1 out of 3 people in the world never uses cash

We recently learned how serious these criminals are about stealing the sovereignty of every person on planet earth. Actually, most people are willingly handing over their sovereignty to the banks/government and have no idea what they are actually doing.

When India banned (made illegal) the 500 and 1000 rupee banknote this move effected every 1 out of 7 people on planet earth. That means that every 7th person, anywhere and everywhere, you come in contact with may have been effected by this cash ban.

Our individual sovereignty is tied directly to our ability to move freely about. When every step we make is tracked by the bank/government our sovereignty is gone forever. Freely trading commerce is one of the cornerstones of human sovereignty. Without the ability to conduct business with whom we wish, when we wish we are nothing more than cattle to the overlords of the land.

An expat living in Thailand sent me an email last week, at the height of India blowing apart because the idiotic decision by Prime Minister Modi to eliminate the two most used bank notes in India. The email was to inform me that Thailand would be implementing a new policy in the early part of 2017 to completely eliminate coins from circulation. South Korea has already taken measures to eliminate coins from circulation.

Here is a google translation from the Korean website wikitree.co.kr (once you arrive you will need to translate from Korean language)

 From next year, you can get the change of cash that you bought and paid at a convenience store on your transportation card.

In the mid to long term, not only transportation cards but also remittance to credit cards and accounts will be promoted, and the industry will be expanded to retail sector such as marts and pharmacies.

The Bank of Korea announced on the 21st [November] that it will provide a service to charge prepaid transportation cards at convenient stores from the first half of next year (2017) as the first stage of the demonstration project to realize “a society without coins”.

What’s happening in Thailand? Well, the government doesn’t even bother with trying to cover up the “scheme” to move people onto the tax farm – currency enslavement awaits for all that enter the great Bangkok Baht giveaway!!!

According to Bangkok.Coconuts.co (published in July 2016):

  “Want to win a million baht? Go for e-payment,” says Thailand’s junta, offering a lucky draw as an incentive to use the new online payment scheme “PromptPay.” The government wants to encourage citizens to use the service for business, in an effort to bring some of the massive informal Thai economy onto the books and boost tax revenues.

As Southeast Asian economies struggle and tax income misses budget targets, Thailand’s finance minister is hopeful that a nationwide e-payment scheme can add tax revenue of THB100 billion a year to the coffers.

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong has estimated the move will save banks and businesses a combined THB75 billion a year, though other policymakers expect it could take some time for businesses to change their habits. Cash and checks now make up 80 percent of transactions.

A coup in May 2014 ended months of political unrest, but the generals have struggled to revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy as exports and consumption remain weak.

What about the most populace country on the planet: China? Well, they are, currently, in fourth place in use of digitized currency behind the U.S., Europe and Brazil. While none of these countries have eliminated cash from circulation, the banks/government make is sound “trendy”, convenient and oh so cool to never use cash. Why force a policy change when you can convince the people to hand over their freewill?

Although China still has some way to go before it catches up with countries such as the US and Sweden, the speed at which China has made the shift from cash towards cashless has surprised many. Non-cash payments have been growing by around 40 per cent a year and last year China moved into 4th place in the world for non-cash payments after the US, Europe and Brazil.
There are many reasons for China’s rapid transition away from cash. One is urbanisation, as non-cash payments are becoming both easy and popular. This is especially the case in top-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing where it is both trendy and convenient to pay without using cash.
There is a huge variety of choices when it comes to making cashless payments and China UnionPay has definitely helped to encourage this, particularly in the case of debit cards, which outnumber credit cards in China by 10 to one. China has more than 4 billion cards on issue – almost enough for each adult to have about three each.
Mobile payments have also taken off in China – it has the largest proportion of people in the world using their mobile phones to make payments, online and physically. Source

The purpose of going cashless is not for our “convenience”, it is specifically for the purpose of “saving the banks” and tax collections. Governments and banks could care-less about what is convenient for us. They are only concerned with how much of our wealth they can extract from every person who has any currency.

The population of South Korea is 50.22 million people or said another way about 1/6th the size of the United States. India, on the other hand, is populated by 1.33 BILLION people while there are 7.4 BILLION populating the world. With Thailand making moves to remove cash/coins from the people we need to add their population to the mix as well. With more than 68.22 Million people this brings the number of people that are being forced by their government to use digital currency to a whopping 1.45 BILLION people. If you add 40% of China’s population of 1.35 BILLION that equates to approximately 540 million people the number of people currently living within a cashless society breaches 2 Billion people or said another way 1 out of every 3.5 people we come into contact with everyday. Every 4th person you greet has nothing to do with cash. This does not take in account the top 3 nations using digitized currency for their transactions. If the U.S., Europe and Brazil were calculated we would be well below 1 out of 3 people never using cash for any transaction.

Some people that are reading this are telling themselves “so what?” those are distant far off lands that have nothing to do with the U.S. and this will never happen here. Well, not so fast.

Larry Summers, who is like an embedded tick at the Treasury Department of the United States, has called for the elimination of the $100 bill. With the elimination of the largest denominated bank note from circulation this would effectively kill the use of cash. Why? Because it would eliminate most of the total cash value from circulation in one-fell-swoop.

With $1.2 trillion in cash in circulation, as of July 2013 (now three year old information), not just in the United States but around the world, removing the $100 bill would deal a serious blow to the cash balance in circulation. Maybe not the amount of pieces of paper, but the cash value removed would be huge. Imagine going to a casino and hitting a blackjack table for $2,000 and the cashier hands you bundles of $50 bills (40) or worse, bundles of $20 bills (100)! $2,000 payout at a casino is not that a big deal. Having to handle the sheer volume of bank notes could potentially be a problem for the person receiving the windfall of paper.

If you have any misguided notion that a cashless society is not coming, just keep telling yourself that every time you use a debit card, credit card or your phone for your next purchase. With the elimination of cash we effectively hand over our individual human sovereignty to the banks and the government.

*  *  *

Finally we leave you with Harvard’s latest study on which nations would ‘benefit’ the most from going cashless