Germany Seeks Independence from the USA


Posted originally on Feb 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GermanyUSA

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and perhaps the new chancellor of Deutschland has a message for America – the relationship is over. Many have condemned the Russian people for supporting Vladimir Putin which is precisely what Merz has done regarding Donald Trump and conservative Americans. Merz plans to end Germany’s strong alliance with America and has called for “independence from the USA.”

“I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe,” Merz stated after stating European independence is the utmost priority.  “For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the USA step by step.”

His comments are not primarily related to threats of tariffs but rather Trump’s unwillingness to aid Ukraine or attack Russia. Merz insists that Germany must boost its military power, injecting an additional $145 billion into the defense budget annually compared to the $90 billion it currently spends. Now, that $90 billion was only 2% of GDP and Germany remains the top economy of Europe. So certainly it should hold its weight if it no longer wishes to rely on the US military alliance.

If America is unwilling to aid Ukraine or promote the war, then it is no longer in alliance with NATO’s agenda. In fact, European leaders have been questioning America’s position in the alliance since Trump became the GOP candidate. “I am very curious to see how we are heading toward the Nato summit at the end of June,” he said. “Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly,” Merz stated.

Moreover, European leaders now wish to share nuclear capabilities. France’s Macron, who certainly dislikes Trump more than Merz, is offering to defend the continent with France’s nuclear arsenal. France stands alone as the Union’s only major nuclear power after Brexit and currently stockpiles the world’s fourth-largest arsenal behind Russia, the USA, and China. Germany was the main opponent against the idea of a so-called “Eurobomb,” but that has since changed. There have been ongoing discussions of a German-French-British nuclear defense system, but countless obstacles remain.

It is unrealistic to expect so many individual nations to agree. Some EU members have signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to oppose nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) currently forbids weapons to be transferred to non-nuclear states or organizations such as the European Union. Then, there is the obstacle of ultimate control. Would France have the final say in when and how to use these weapons?

Trump was hoping for a different outcome, praising Merz for his conservative fiscal policies. “Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years,” Trump posted on Truth Social. But Merz perhaps also dismissed the AfD Party for refusing to support Ukraine. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said.

Europe has relied on American defense since the last World War. This sudden pivot will force all members to increase military spending drastically at a time when the Union itself is collapsing due to fiscal mismanagement and a poor foundation from the start. Merz is prioritizing Brussels and NATO and he is NOT going to improve Germany’s economic conditions as a result.

French Economy Minister Admits Politics Worsening Deficit


Posted originally on Feb 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

BankofFrance

French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit with an aim of 5.4% of GDP in 2025 followed by 3% into 2029. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. France is the largest European economy failing to maintain this goal as they grapple with ever-rising government debt.

“We are going to work with all the political parties … to discuss, to talk with us. We are going, also, to work with the unions, with the employers, in order to reach a consensus on the main policies that are key for the country, and policies on which we can make adjustments that will allow us to spend less in 2026,” Lombard said, later admitting that politics have had a “negative impact on growth.”

The economy experienced a 0.1% contraction during Q4. The Bank of France expects the economy to grow by 0.1% to 0.2% in Q1 of this year, while the IMF predicts the economy will rise by 0.8% for the year.

2024_06_01_Macron France_leads_initiative_on_sending_military_trainers_to_Ukraine

France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.

The reality is that France, like much of Europe, is caught in a vicious cycle of excessive government intervention, anti-business policies, and high taxation, all of which discourage capital formation. Pension funds are vanishing. Political instability and declining tax revenues have exacerbated the deficit, yet the solution proposed is always the same—more taxes, more regulations, and empty promises of austerity.

Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.

Merz Wins in Germany but Ignores the People


Posted originally on Feb 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Merz Friedrich

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition with AfD. He has not got the memo as you say that the people are shifting.

Thank you for Socrates. This is the only forecaster that is not biased.

Hans

REPLY: Yes, Friedrich Merz’s conservative opposition leader, what would not be even a headline in the United States. When you have so many parties fighting, you get very ineffective governments. That many Italians have told me keeps politicians arguing against each other and leaving the people alone. Indeed, as our computer projected, the Alternative for Germany nearly doubled its support, putting in the strongest showing for an alleged “far-right party” that had been against wholesale immigration since World War II.

Schwab you own nothing

Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat for his left-leaning Social Democrats. He said it was “a bitter election result.” Perhaps he should listen to the people rather than to Kaus Schwab. Marxism does not work. It has destroyed every economy it has ever been deployed because it is outright against human nature.

Merz vowed to move quickly to put together a coalition government but has vowed not to make a coalition with AfD all because the press has labeled them far-right, asking to be Nazis. Any coalition Merz created without AfD will only doom Germany to a continuation of the never-ending economic stagnation of Europe’s biggest economy thanks to Russian sanctions and the stupid net-zero climate change policies. Merz had pushed hard in recent weeks for a stricter approach, but with opposition to NATO against peace with Russia in order to remain relevant, will Merz fall in line with the EU war objectives?

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine’s second-biggest weapons supplier after the U.S. Therein lies the problem. Scholtz promised Zelensky he would be his biggest supporter. Ukraine only takes. I never give up anything. The Ukraine government is the most corrupt government runs it in the world, and they are like a merchant who takes your money and declares all sales are final and have no returns.

Based on exit polls and partial counting, the projections put support for Merz’s Union bloc came in at around 28.5% and the anti-immigration AfD at about 20.5% — roughly double its result from 2021. Scholz’s Social Democrats collapsed to just over 16%, which was an all-time historic low even under the 20.5% from 2017. The Greens came in at an appalling just over 12%.

Merz made a huge mistake because of the press and dismissed the idea that voters wanted a coalition with AfD. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said. Mertz has ignored the vote and he is just doing as directed by the EU and NATO. This does not speak well for Germany’s’s changing directions.

German GDP 1991 2024

I do not see Mertz changing Germany’s economic direction. He must reject the EU and NATO and listen to the German people.

The German Elections Tomorrow


Posted originally on Feb 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

1922 Forced Loan German Bond

The German elections are tomorrow, and the polls are touting the failed government of Schultz as the winner. Germany will hold a snap national election on Sunday, February 23, after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition. Currently, the CDU/CSU leads in our polling according to the LEFT-controlled German Press with an aggregate of 9 points over the AfD. They always pretend that the LEFT is somehow centered and that whatever we earn really belongs to the state, and they decide how much we are allowed to retain. The Swiss numbered accounts really took place because Hitler made it illegal to have an account outside the country. Capital had fled because the SPD government confiscated 10% of everyone’s bank accounts and handed them a bond in December 1922, which led to hyperinflation. People got whatever wealth they had out of Germany after that trick.

Merkel Welcome

After Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, the press, which had labeled the AfD the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), gained 3.7 points. The SPD, the current leaders in the national parliament since the average person votes for labels only, has lost 12.3 points since the last federal election and is currently in third place. Germany has no centrist parties other than the AfD, which has stood against migration and war. Scholz’s pretend center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the opposition conservatives, an alliance of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

Covid had a significant impact in Germany. Even our staff there fled the country and moved to our Dubai office over mandatory vaccines for children. The AfD first entered Germany’s national parliament eight years ago on the back of discontent with the arrival of large numbers of migrants thanks to Merkel flooding Europe with no public vote nor any EU-wide concensus. It was all about her image, and she undermined Europe as a whole. So now the press calls anyone against migration the far-right. European politicians live in denial. BREXIT took place because the British did not want this flood of immigrants who had no intention of blending into European culture but demanded their own culture dominate. Parts in Sweden saw them declaring Shia Law prevailed – not European. But disagree with the leftists who REFUSE to acknowledge any mistake, and you are a far-right Nazi.

German Greens War

The Afd party has proven that this discontent over the mass flood of non-Christian immigrants, where some have even burned churches, has tapped into common sense. The LEFT press has covered up the rape of girls in Europe by the migrants. As in the USA, the press saw no problem with transgender men competing in women’s sports, setting all the records. Germany’s move away from fossil fuels, restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and support for Ukraine’s orchestrated war against Russia and the prospects of World War III are somehow all far-right. The status quo in politics will be the downfall and destruction of Europe. The Greens have supported war against Russia to end their fossil fuel production. Even the World Socialist website has stated that the “Greens are among the most aggressive warmongers. ” So, risk nuclear war to save the planet? The failure of the AfD to win a majority will doom Germany to World War III.

EU_Could_German_election_result_be_annulled_Euro_Weekly_News

Also running are the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke, and the leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who are all at risk of missing the 5% threshold to make it into parliament, according to opinion polls. Yet the real problem is the audacity of the EU to overturn the Romanian election and say they might do the same if the AfD wins. Europe is turning not just against free speech but very authoritarian, and it is the LEFT that has become the war party.

Germ Bunds Y 2 20 25

Our model has already elected two Yearly sell signals on the German Bunds. The current government is not just pro-war; it is undermining its own economy. The German election has shrunk by 3% thanks to the Green policy and the sanctions it imposed on Russia, undermining its industrial complex and resulting in rising unemployment and protests in the auto industry. Since COVID, the economic growth of the German economy has been steadily declining.

German GDP 1991 2024

Comment from Canada


Posted originally on Feb 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

canada

Martin,

I polls just like in the US are never correct. There’s no doubt that many Canadians suffer from Trump derangement, my guess is most Canadians still view the US in a favorable light.

As you are aware Canada really doesn’t produce very much any longer, we’ve become a very unfriendly Country to do business in. With the pending changes to the Capital Gains tax, it will completely kill small businesses.

I really believe what we are witnessing is a well executed plan to continue to decide the people and the media is the main propaganda tool.

The same people who control the media are the same people who are part of the evil and corrupt system?

SYSTEM OF CONTROL.

Crimes against Humanity.

You are not meant to think for yourself.

You are not meant to challenge their power [control].

Obey and accept.

Illusion of Democracy.

Illusion of Freedom.

Why does the media push division?

Why does the media incite violence?

Why does the media pit race v race?

Why does the media pit religion v religion?

Why does the media pit sex v sex?

Why does the media pit class v class?

Divided you are weak.

Divided you fight each other.

Divided you pose no threat to their system of control.

UNITY IS STRENGTH.

UNITY IS POWER.

UNITY IS HUMANITY.

Controlled media plays a major role in shaping the narrative(s) to keep you mpowerless [helpless] and asleep [unaware of truth].

ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE.

ENEMY OF HUMANITY.

Jim M

Over a Quarter of Canadians See US as an Enemy


Posted originally on Feb 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

BuyCanadian

The once strong alliance between Canada and the United States has come to an abrupt halt. More so than tariffs, Canadians were offended when President Donald Trump continually stated that America should absorb Canada as the 51st state. A recent poll found that over a quarter of Canadians now see the US as an enemy nation.

The Leger survey of 1,500 Canadians and 1,000 Americans found that 27% of Canadian respondents view the United States as an “enemy,” although 30% still consider the neighboring nation an “ally.” On the flip side, only 1% of Americans see Canadians as an “enemy,” with 56% believing they remain an “ally.”

Canadians from every political party expressed unfavorable views of Donald Trump. Overall, 74% of respondents do not see him in a favorable light. Conservative Party members were most likely to have a favorable view with 27% approving of the US president and only 18% deeming the US an “enemy.” Only 21% of Liberals and NDP supporters see the US as an ally, with 34% and 47% deeming America an “enemy” nation.

There have been calls throughout Canada to boycott American products. Amazon revealed it would be closing its Quebec warehouse, eliminating 2,000 jobs, leading to a widespread call among Canadians to boycott Amazon and cancel Prime memberships. Others are calling for a boycott on other American streaming services like Netflix and Disney.

Canadian consumers are boycotting American food items. I have friends in Canada who have said that US products have been sitting on the shelves at a discount as Canadians no longer wish to contribute to the US economy. Even certain coffee shops have renamed the “Americano” espresso drink to the “Canadiano,” and many have begun boycotting American fast food chains like Starbucks and McDonald’s. Some are calling for a travel boycott and urging fellow Canadians to vacation elsewhere for at least the next four years until Trump is out of office.

Anti-American sentiment will only rise if these tariffs go into effect. Trump told Canada that the US was subsidizing its economy and no longer considered it a vital trading partner. Americans would understandably take offense if another world leader suggested that Americans abandon sovereignty to join a foreign nation. The only positive is that this patriotic nationalism has repaired domestic tensions among Canadians amid much political turmoil.

The Endless Hunt for Taxes


Posted originally on Feb 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Progressive Party

QUESTION: You may say you do not advise the Trump Administration, but Trump seems to be adopting everything you have laid out, including that income taxes are a barbaric relic from the past that are no longer necessary. He has even publicly rejected Zelensky. When will you tell the truth that you do advise Trump? You have been the only voice calling out Zelensky for what he is.

George

Gov Non Defense Spending GDP

ANSWER: Sorry, I have not advised Trump. Yes, I know many people are reading who are close to him. I  have no such official position. The Founding Fathers prohibited income taxes. The Progressive Movement went after income and openly discriminated against people who made more than they did. The Progressive Party was even on the ticket in 1912, the year before the income tax.

Trump_proposes_abolishment_of_federal_income_tax_bringing_US_back_to_richest_p

Trump has stated that between 1870 and 1913 this was the richest period in American History economically. The income tax is Marxist, and the Founding Fathers constitutionally prohibited it for a good reason. It makes everyone report if they even won $100 at the casino. Everything you do is accountable, and now the Democrats ushered in a requirement that every person having any interest in any company must discover that to the Treasury or be fined $10,000 and imprisoned. They want to know everything, and it will never stop there. Janet Yellen wanted to audit transactions down to $600, and if you have any cash app, they must report what you are doing to the IRS.

Federal Spending as GDP

It does not matter how much the government collects, it will always spend more. The Democrats cannot run for office without promising to bribe people with free gifts. I have been waiting for the free toaster or TV when you vote Democrat. This is why a gold standard cannot work. You cannot have gold as money unless you completely change the political system. This is what Trump is trying to do. The government is growing, and it will continue to consume more and more of people’s wages, which reduces the available spending capacity of the people, which then reduces economic growth.

Civil Work Force 1900 1980 New

When we add all government, including contracted to the government, it grew from 22% to 33%, including state and local. The government is consuming everything. This will only result in the economy’s collapse and a sovereign debt crisis.

Tax Robbery

Taxes are no longer necessary, for when money was actually a coin, the king had to get some back to spend again. Today, the government creates money, and if it did not borrow but just printed what it needed, the national debt would be a fraction of its size. This year alone, we will add $1 trillion in interest to keep rolling a debt nobody intends to pay off. There will NEVER be liberty as long as there is an income tax.

Fort Knox


Posted originally on Feb 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Fort Knox

COMMENT: Sir,

Saw your blog post about Fort Knox gold depository . Your comment about no visitors was spot on. I use to be the flight surgeon assigned to Fort Knox airfield in the early 90s. One of the flight units assigned was an executive transport wing. To get flight hours, I would tag along with them on their King Air fixed wing planes. When flying with them I noticed, just after take off that we banked quite hard. I chided the pilot thinking they were just trying to give me a hard time. Actually one of the runways was built and aligned exactly flying over the Gold depository. Whether the runway was built before or after the depository was , I don’t know. The pilot in command told me that even they were not allowed to fly over the gold depository. So when you said no visitors… it really means no visitors on ground or air.

Keep up the good work

DK

REPLY: This may become a fascinating conspiracy theory. If they will not allow Musk in and nobody can verify anything, this will only fuel speculation. They should at least take a video tour themselves and provide that to the public. Let’s see. Members of Congress have tried to visit and were denied. Can the President visit and take a video? Perhaps Trump can then swing by Area 51 before returning to the White House.

Eduardo Bolsonaro Breaks Down The Globalist Lawfare Being Used Against His Father Jair Bolsonaro


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Feb19, 2025, at 12:00 pm EST

Labour Party to Increase Migrant Spending by 30%


Posted originally on Feb 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Britain permitted their borders to be invaded without a shot fired. The taxpayer must take on the responsibility of these open border policies that has led to increased crimes, toppled budgets, and an ever-changing society. The latest news from Downing Street is that the Labour Party is looking to increase spending on illegal migrants by 30% or £47 million per year to £61 million.

The Labour Party claims that they are committed to reducing the asylum backlog, end hotel use and increase returns.” A good portion of the increased funding will go toward legal aid to help illegal migrants bypass the system. As a reminder, there are at LEAST 1.2 million undocumented migrants living in the UK, but we should expect the true figure to be much higher. The government admits they lost track long ago. Around 70% of the unvetted individuals who show up at the borders are granted entry.

NHS UK

Asylum seekers are entitled to FREE healthcare from the National Health Service (NHS). “You may be able to get housing and money to support you and your family while you’re waiting to find out if you’ll be given asylum,” the National Asylum Support Service (NASS) promotes on its website. The NASS will pay for housing and free education for all migrants, even those who have been DENIED asylum.

The government does not want to admit to the mass crime wave sweeping the nation as these people fail to integrate into society. As of March 2024, 12% of the UK’s prison population were foreign nationals. Foreign nationals have a higher rate of imprisonment than citizens, with 18.2 inmates per 10,000 migrants compared to 14 per 10,000 citizens.

UKGirlsStabbingCrimeMigrant

Many had hoped the nation would back away from European policies after Brexit, but the people voted for a party that has the same ideals as Brussels. “Every illegal migrant that crosses the English Channel now costs you the taxpayer £41,000. That is an increase of over 140% since 2019,” Nigel Farage stated in October 2024. Farage has come under fire for advocating for a freeze on non-essential migration. He has noted that the UK would need to build one new dwelling every two minutes to keep up with the demand for housing, largely due to the mass influx of migrants. The NHS has experienced longer wait lists than before as the healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Muhammad has been the most popular boy baby name in the UK in recent years. The UK has lost its identity and is no longer a Christian nation. Pew Research Center believes that Muslim women will have more children than Christian women by 2035, and Islam could become the most followed religion in the world. Build Back Better nations are becoming unrecognizable as the very essence of their cultures and traditions are challenged.

When will the madness end? Each year, the government demands that citizens pay more for illegal migrants. The Labour Party has completely undermined Britain’s economic stability with its socialist agenda. And now they also want to send troops on the ground in Ukraine? The persistent economic downturn is inevitable.