Kaja Kallas displayed her incompetence as she is conflicted by personal hatred of Russians. Despite her catastrophic meeting with China’s High Commissioner for Foreign Relations, she tried to lecture him about EU values and democracy when neither she nor Ursula had been elected. She then demanded that China submit to the rules-based order of the EU and unimaginably demanded that China condemn Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, cease providing support, and use its influence to tell Putin to surrender and stop Russia’s advance westward.
Wang Yi respectfully stated that China was not helping Russia in the conflict with Ukraine. He added that he had no intention of interfering in that conflict. Moreover, he bluntly informed Kallas that China had no intention of standing idly by and watching Russia lose. He stated that China believes that if Russia were defeated, the EU and NATO would turn on China next. It was reported that observers never saw Wang Yi so angry at the arrogance of Kallas.
As Sun Tzu said, you must know your enemy and yourself to be able to succeed. If you do not know either, you will be defeated. Here, Lavrov and he view from a speech just the other day, the Russian interpretation of what is truly going on.
Posted originally on CTH on July 29, 2025 | Sundance
The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.
During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.
The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.
During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said: “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}. To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}. It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.
Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.
When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation. As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.
♦ President Trump’s position is essentially to talk about the details when the USMCA is dissolved; hence, the ambivalence.
Politico is noting the Canadian trade team simply doesn’t understand this. “[D]espite months of back and forth, the terms for a deal have not yet been set, a senior government source said, with the White House informing the Canadian side that Trump is more focused on securing deals with other partners like India.”
(Politico cont..) […] Earlier this month, Canada conceded that any deal with Trump is likely to include tariffs.
Carney’s government wants stability around the tariffs Trump invoked using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
They are crushing Canada’s auto, steel, aluminum and forestry industries. Trump also plans to hit imported copper with 50 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1 — with semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports likely to follow.
Canada ultimately wants the tariffs eliminated or lowered to a fixed level that doesn’t fluctuate, the senior government official said. “If we know what world we’re going into, then we can have better plans and policies to attract investment.”
Canada’s premiers say the unpredictability is punishing the economy.
“Private investment is not growing because everybody’s on pause,” Quebec Premier François Legault told reporters last week. “They are waiting to see what will happen. I’ve been in business — it’s about the worst thing you can have is uncertainty.” (read more)
The certainty the Canadians are looking for can be found easily if they stop pretending.
(1) U.S. tariffs against non-USMCA products from Canada will go into effect on August 1st. (2) As soon as the USMCA is reopened, it will be dissolved. (3) After the USMCA dissolution, a bilateral free trade agreement between the USA and Canada will be negotiated.
Every current effort by Canada to change the nature of the trade system, between now and the reopening of the USMCA (to dissolve it), is futile.
Again, I’m not exactly sure why this reality is so challenging for the Canadian govt to understand.
Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2025 | Sundance
I’ll repeat it as much as needed, until it sinks in.
The U.S-Canada trade deal status is simply a no-brainer. President Trump will answer questions about Canada and tariffs, he’ll put people into seats to discuss trade with the Canadian delegation, and he’ll give every outward appearance of being favorable to Prime Minister Mark Carney…. BUT…
In the background, Trump is simply waiting for the USMCA timeline to trigger a renegotiation. President Donald Trump is ambivalent to the trade partnership with Canada. This moot-status reality is why there’s no substantive engagement.
‘No deal’ -until USMCA redo- is a win for President Trump.
For some bizarre reason that I simply cannot fathom, almost every Canadian politician seems entirely oblivious to this reality. Instead, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Mark Carney’s chief-of-staff, Marc-André Blanchard are once again coming to DC to ride their bicycles in slow circles at the bottom of the White House driveway while staring in the windows.
An article in Politico notes the Canadian premiers are now accepting the August 1st deadline will pass without any agreement, and the 35% reciprocal tariffs on non-USMCA products (meaning a lot of stuff) is going to trigger.
Literally, everything from Canada that has a non-USMCA component is going to be tariffed. Think about all the stuff from China, Asia (writ large) and Europe that Canada assembles for finished goods. All of that stuff will be subject to the tariffs.
That said, there’s good news coming from the recent meeting between Prime Minister Carney and the Premiers. Within their statement they use the term “developing large infrastructure projects.” That’s Canadian political codespeak for them realizing they are going to have to get back to regular energy development, raw material use/refinement and ACTUAL MANUFACTURING.
Canada is going to have to bring back their ‘dirty’ industrial jobs.
For our Treehouse friends in Canada, this is very good news. The Canadian assembly economic model has to change in order to get compliant with U.S. trade rules. THAT’S TRUMP’S ENTIRE POINT!
The environmentalists within Canada will not like this, but economically they will have no choice; it’s the only way to avoid a complete economic depression.
HUNTSVILLE, Ontario — Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada’s premiers are tempering expectations that they’ll strike a new economic and security deal with Donald Trump by the end of the month.
“We would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?” Quebec Premier François Legault said Tuesday. “You almost need to ask Donald Trump, and I’m not even sure he knows himself what he wants.”
It’s a shift in tone from the premiers and Carney, who ran for election on his economic record, arguing he’d be the best person to negotiate with the president. But Canada is finding it harder than it looks.
Carney met the premiers in Muskoka, cottage country north of Toronto, to update them on Canada-U.S. negotiations.
As the leaders emerged from a three-hour meeting, they downplayed hopes of an Aug. 1 deal, arguing that achieving a “good deal” is more important than hitting a deadline.
[…] As the negotiations continue, the premiers spent Tuesday carving out a strategy to offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on the aluminum, steel, auto and lumber sector. They spoke about developing large infrastructure projects, breaking down trade barriers between provinces and encouraging a “buy Canadian” approach. (READ MORE)
Canada is going to go into a deep economic recession; there’s no way to avoid it. However, if they restart their industrial base, drop the ridiculous ‘green’ energy stuff, start exploiting their own natural resources and train an apprentice generation -just like we are trying to do- then Canada can bounce back stronger than ever.
We know there are Canadian wolverines who understand this concept; we saw thousands of them in the Truckers’ vaccine strike. Make Canada Great Again, by Making Dirty Jobs Great Again, eh?
Posted originally on CTH on July 21, 2025 | Sundance
In 2018, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau relied heavily on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for assistance when the U.S. and Mexico constructed the majority of the USMCA trade pact. Today, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney takes the same approach.
PRESS RELEASE – “Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with a bipartisan delegation of United States senators in Ottawa. The Senator for Oregon, Ron Wyden, the Senator for Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, the Senator for New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, and the Senator for Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, were present.” (more)
The 35% tariffs against Canada are scheduled to go into effect on August 1st.
As noted by President Trump in his remarks during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House, Trump plans to renegotiate the USMCA and end the trilateral agreement in favor of two bilateral trade deals.
During the Oval Office meeting President Trump said, “As you know [USMCA] terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then the biggest statement, “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico, and the U.S and Canada. The only consideration now is the timing. President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics.
Posted originally on Jul 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Vladimir Putin has 580 billion additional reasons not to end the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz entered office with a clear intent to usher Germany into World War III. Not only has Merz mobilized troops and the largest military spending package in modern European history, but he is now demanding that Russia pay reparations amid an ongoing conflict.
“Growth, market freedom, our energy security, as well as the extraordinary strain on our social systems caused by war refugees: all of this is linked to the war in Ukraine,” Merz said ironically, as Europe would not have these problems if it didn’t embed itself in the middle of the conflict. “The reconstruction of Ukraine is not just a matter of the future… Day after day, we are ensuring that life in Ukraine can continue despite all of Russia’s daily and especially nightly attacks.”
Merz believes that Russia must pay at least 500 billion euros ($580 billion USD) in reparations. His comments were made at the same July 10 conference where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced “the largest equity fund globally to support (Ukraine’s) reconstruction” worth 2 trillion euros.
The G7 nations have already seized $300 billion in foreign Russian assets. Perhaps Merz forgets the repercussions of the Treaty of Versailles after the first World War in 1919. France and Britain, still obsessed with revenge for their own wartime losses, forced Germany to accept total responsibility for a war that was triggered by a single assassination in the Balkans. Germany was stripped of territory, disarmed, and then burdened with reparations so astronomical they could never be repaid.
The German people were humiliated, starving, and desperate. Hyperinflation destroyed their savings and created a depression felt through the generations. The Weimar Republic was a puppet regime enforced by foreign powers. That anger fermented into nationalism, and history repeated — as it always does. This is precisely what gave rise to Adolf Hitler, and if the people think Vladimir Putin is malicious, they are ill-prepared for the hardliners standing behind him, eagerly awaiting their opportunity to take on NATO. Putin has been attempting to end this conflict, but has been prevented from doing so by the Western neocons who removed the possibility of peace.
When you back a nation into a corner, destroy its economy, and humiliate its people, you guarantee a future war. The Russia-Ukraine war has been escalating and neocons like Merz are ensuring that the embers ignite until a fire roars through Russia and Ukraine before engulfing the rest of the world.
Posted originally on Jul 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Merz is putting all of Germany in the crosshairs. His thirst for war with Russia makes him unfit to be in charge of parking meters for the government. Ask yourself if Germany were at war with Ukraine and Putin said Here are long-range missiles so that you can attack Berlin and Frankfurt, would Germany look to just Ukraine or to Russia orchestrating the whole war?
The tension will escalate starting next week. They will become more open by the week of 08/04, and then the week of 08/18.
To put this mildly, the Euro also has a Panic Cycle in 2026, as does our Cycle of War. Model. Merz is a traitor to the German people. The FIRST DUTY of any head of state is to protect his own people, not throw them into war on the directions of NATO and other warmongers. He should be dragged out of his office in chains. People often wondered if they could have stopped World War II if someone had assassinated Hitler. I fear they will one day hypothetically wonder the same about Merz.
Europe is pushing DESPERATELY for war. This is not going to end well. The third time will NOT be the charm for an attempted conquest of Russia. The EU will lose, and it will no longer exist. The target of 2026.03 will be the culmination of the 8th 8.6-year wave from the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957.23. The final capitulation of the EU is expected by 2030.
Posted originally on Jul 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: After reading you for more than 10 years, I understand that you are the best at geopolitics because you honestly know history. Medvedev has called on Vladimir Putin to consider pre-emptive strikes against the US and its allies in response to Donald Trump’s ‘theatrical’ 50-day deadline. What would your advice be to Putin, since no leader can do what Trump has demanded and remain in power?
PD
ANSWER: I would give the West 31 days to (1) remove Zelensky & hold an election in Ukraine, (2) honor the Minsk Agreement as the West guaranteed, and let the Donbas vote on separation as took place in Czechoslovakia and the breakup of Yugoslavia. If that is not carried out, the Ukrainian people have 2 weeks to vacate Kiev, and it will be nuked.
NATO will claim that they will target Moscow, and I would then lock in every capital of Europe. If Trump intervenes, I would target Washington, NYC, Chicago, and LA without dropping leaflets. Maybe then the people will get off their ass and remove the leaders of Europe, and the American Neocons should be hauled out and imprisoned for a usurpation of power, and that would be using the West’s tactics of REGIME CHANGE in reverse.
Let us not forget that the Neocons of the US and Europe deliberately created this civil war in Ukraine. John McCain and Victoria Nuland overthrew the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime. They lied to the Ukrainian people, telling them this was their moment for peace and it was just about them. What bullshit!
Victoria Nuland decided who would run Ukraine, not the people. Her gaffe was “F the EU”, she was deciding the fate of Ukraine. She installed her UNELECTED puppet and instructed Turchynov to attack the Donbas. The Ukrainian people were lied to by Zelensky, who ran on a promise of peace.
Our press always condemns Putin and will never tell the truth because the Neocons pay them to drum up the war at all costs. WAR, WAR, WAR. Why? That leads to massive death, the destruction of our economic future, and war never ends as expected. The bulk of our national debt is the cost of the endless wars of the Neocons, which Trump promised to stop, so much for democracy.
The death toll was 130,000 when Zelensky was running, and he promised peace. It is now approaching 1.5 million, and over 8 million have fled the country. Russia was optimistic that Zelensky’s election would end the war. He has suspended the election, assumed a dictatorial role, and takes his orders from NATO. No major country suspended elections during World War I or World War II.
The Ukrainian people have been played as fools, denied any democratic process. What I hear behind the curtain is that nobody cares about the Ukrainian people, what the hell, they were all communists and Nazis before anyhow.
It was Boris Johnson who flew to Kiev and instructed Zelensky that he was not allowed to sign any peace deal. The Ukrainians I speak to ask, are they allowed to have peace without permission from London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington?
The Neocons only care about winning. They do not care about the cost, the people who die on the battlefield, nor the “collateral damage” to civilians. World War II was the deadliest conflict in history, with massive casualties on both the military and civilian sides.
Total Estimated Deaths in WWII: 70–85 million
Military Deaths: 21–25 million
Civilian Deaths: 50–55 million
Europe lied and signed a peace treaty, and Merkel admitted that they had no intention of honoring that agreement. It was only to buy time for Ukraine to raise an army to start World War III against Russia.
The West wants this War. There is no possible way for Putin to come to any peace terms with the West. They will not honor it, for the Neocons have spent their entire lives dreaming about the conquest of Russia. The West is infected with these warmongers. There is no dealing with them. It is up to us to get off our ass and demand their removal!!!!
Our computer has been correct all along. I stood up at the 2011 WEC in Philadelphia and warned that the war cycle turned up in 2014. That was correct, and it was the Ukrainian Revolution. In 2013, the year before, I warned that the computer had targeted Ukraine as the hot spot. These are NOT my personal forecasts. Nobody can be that correct from a “I think” perspective.
The computer has been forecasting World War III, and 2026 is a Panic Cycle. With Trump’s absurd 50-day ultimatum, we can expect that this will indeed start to heat up from August onward.
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