Depression Scrip – Coming to a Region Near You


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: At the WEC, you said as the nation breaks apart, the most likely course of action will be the creation of local currencies. You also said you would post a catalog of Depression Scrip. I have not seen that. Can you post that, please?

Thank you for a great WEC. Always learning something new.

GJ

ANSWER: Sorry. I may have forgotten to publish that because I searched Amazon and could not find it. It was published back in 1984. Because Depression Scrip is not a huge field of collectors largely because most have never heard of the existence of private currency during the Great Depression, this book is quite rare. You may find some used copies that go for $125 or more.

I have studied the subject from the standpoint of economics. During the reign of Tiberius (14-37AD), he was very frugal and as such there was a shortage of money which led to a Financial Panic in 33AD. During such periods, private money surfaces as a necessity. This is why history repeats because human nature never changes. It will always respond the same way.

Here is private money from the Panic of 1837. The denomination reads 12 1/2 cents. This was issued by a Coffee House. Here is a half-penny issued by the New York store of Macy’s in 1876 following the Panic of 1873.

Throughout history, we see the very same reaction each and every time. I have collected a large number of private currencies covering the various financial waves of panic since Roman times. It has been a critical part of being able to forecast what takes place during these events. The common denominator is always humanity since we never change for thousands of years. We only progress in terms of technology – not our human emotions.

Here is private scrip issued by the San Francisco Clearing House where transactions were settled in the bond and stock markets. The backing was the private shares in companies. This was the Panic of 1907.

Here is another issued in 1908 in Augusta, Georgia. It was the Panic of 1907 that really we began to see widespread stock exchanges issuing money that began because if there was a shortage of cash, you could not conduct any business whatsoever since it was impossible to pay.

Here is the Chicago Clearing House which issued private money during the Great Depression in 1933. We find various stock exchanges issuing private currency in times when there was a shortage of money because people were hoarding their cash in times of uncertainty.

This was the very first Depression Scrip I ever saw and immediately purchased it. This opened the door in economics for me to understand how things function during a great crash. What took place during the Great Depression was that there was such a shortage of cash, over 200 cities began to issue their own currencies just to enable transactions to take place. Businesses could not hire people because there was no available cash to pay them

There are catalogs available in German concerning the NotGeld, private issues of currency, during the Hyperinflation of the 1920s. Once again, it does not matter what nation or culture. The same human response will unfold every time.

As the United States breaks up, as is the case in Europe, we will see currencies appears on a regional basis. This is how it will always work. I spent more than two decades investigating these trends and collecting scrip from all financial crises going back to ancient times. Without access to these examples, there is just no economic historical account that has ever tied all of this together. I had to explore this all on my own.

The Real Debt Crisis is Here


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Ever since the debacle in London with the long-term debt, there have been whispers in NYC about how the demand for long-term is drying up. When this becomes critical, is that when the whole thing comes crashing down?

KW

ANSWER: That was the real gist of Yellen’s speech back in October of 2022. Of course, the US press will never elaborate on this problem until it smacks them in the face. Yellen publicly admitted that the Treasury asked the primary dealers of US government debt for their views on the merits and limitations of a buyback program. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, made up of market participants, highly recommended considering the move because the demand for long-term was declining.

Yellen herself publicly acknowledged the decline in trading volume in 20-year bonds, which they reintroduced in 2020 thanks to COVID. Quoting from her direct comments:

“The 20-year Treasury is an area, an issue where there’s been less liquidity — but we haven”t made any decisions about it.” 

Even the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association came out and publicly also stated last October that there had been episodes of illiquidity. This was the same problem that created the Crisis in the Long-term British gilt market.

Institutions do not want to buy the long-term in the face of (1) rising interest rates to fight inflation, and (2) unlimited handing of money to Ukraine that will NEVER come back for Ukraine is a black hole and reliable sources are deeply concerned that Ukraine will lose and exist no more.

The escalation in debt on the horizon with World War III is beyond the capacity of the Primary Dealers to buy.  They are strained now with the debt expansion for socialism, then Ukraine, and add War, this system is cracking NOW! The Primary Dealers cannot buy more debt than their balance sheets allow. The “whispers” running around have been on the street. The press has not articulated this for (1) it’s above their pay grade to comprehend, and (2) they cannot dare report the truth.

Consumer Price Index Increases 0.5 in January, 6.4% Annual Inflation Rate


Posted originally on the CTH on February 14, 2023 | Sundance 

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the January consumer price index today [DATA HERE] reflecting what you already know.  The overall inflation rate stands at 6.4%, after the anniversaries of the first two waves of price increases have now tolled.

Inflation is the measure of price increases over time.  Following two years of massive jumps in price, we are now cycling through and comparing current prices to the previous period when prices had already skyrocketed.

This gives a false impression of price moderation (hindsight inflation); however, the price of goods and services is significantly higher, and those prices will not drop. The higher prices are now embedded in the economy.

After a brief respite, a plateau, in energy price increases over Nov (0.5%) and December (0.4%), the January energy prices began climbing again (0.6%).  This is what we have all noticed in the past three months.

Additionally, “shelter” costs, rent and housing, continue to increase in price (0.8%, January). Overall shelter costs now +7.9% for the 12 months preceding January, 2023, with rents up 8.6% for the period [Table-1].

We have also cycled through the anniversary of the first two waves of massive food price increases, ending January 2022.  Despite that cycle, food prices still show an increase of 10.1% for the preceding 12 months. Cereals +15.6%, dairy +14.0%.  These food price increases are on top of similar jumps in the period that preceded January ’22.  Most of these volatile food price increases are attributable to the overall scale of energy and transportation costs.  These prices will never reverse.

The issue is compounded because the inflation rate is still far exceeding the rate of wage growth.  This means workers and working families are going backwards and spending more than they earn for the exact same housing, food and energy products they were purchasing a year ago.

This wage squeeze means little to no disposable income, which then applies to the rest of the household checkbook economics.  With less disposable income, fewer non-essential products and/or services are purchased by working families.  This situation creates the snowball effect of lessened overall economic activity.

(Via CNBC) – […] Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December.

Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7%, respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1%, respectively.

Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report that adjusts wages for inflation.

While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year. (read more)

According to the wage report: “from January 2022 to January 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.5-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.”  Workers are working longer hours, making slightly more pay, but the rate of inflation means their actual “real wages” are still dropping.

The way to break out of this cycle is to first unleash the U.S. energy sector and drive down the costs of oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil, natural gas and electricity rates.  However, the entrenched nature of the climate change ideology, blocks the professional political class from providing the energy sector relief.  Both Democrats and Republicans want the Joe Biden “green new deal” energy policy.

FUBAR!

The Collapse of the Monetary System – a Comedy of Errors


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin
Could you please describe more in detail what you are expecting when talking about the breakdown of the monetary system?
Will there be differencies between countries like Germany and Switzerland for example? Especially regarding pension systems.
I asume, there might be big differences by countries.
Many thanks and best regards,
RZ

ANSWER: The collapse of the monetary system is the result of a comedy of errors. It boils down to the problem that governments since World War II have adopted Keynesian Economics whereby they took Keynes’ suggestion that they should run a deficit during a recession/depression to compensate for the fall in demand because people are hoarding their cash in times of uncertainty. The problem was that they merged that with Marxism and began to run deficits annually and then took the Quantity Theory of Money that claimed an increase in the money supply would be inflationary. So, they borrowed rather than printed falsely believing that they could spend whatever they wanted without it being inflationary.

However, because debt suddenly became collateral post-1971 when it had been illegal to use government bonds as collateral for borrowing, then the debt was transformed into money that now paid interest as it had begun during the American Civil War.

Thanks to the stupidity of locking down the economy for COVID, the escalation in national debts has been insane. This has added stress to the monetary system for you see, the entire government structure depends on being able to sell its debt. As the demand for their debt is declining when they look at this deliberate push for war and handing Ukraine unlimited amounts of money, the inability to sell the debt has increased their search for taxes – hence hiring 87,000 IRS agents armed!

The system is collapsing. They cannot continue to fund all the social programs under this system where the Primary Dealers are not large enough to continually buy government debt. That impacts everything from Pension to Life Insurance. Absolutely everything from investments to interest rates and taxation is all interconnected so we are looking at the end game of 2032. I believe Schwab has taken our forecast for the collapse of the monetary system and we will have a great reset with our opportunity to redesign government he is trying to take that event and push it to totalitarianism ending even our right to vote on anything. Of there will be a Great Rest, but not the way Schwab hopes it to unfold.

The only option is central banks must monetize the debt which defeats the entire purpose of borrowing that was supposed to be less inflationary, and then they must raise taxes dramatically to attempt to remain in power until they compel the people to rise up in revolution as is always the case. Almost every revolution in history has begun with taxation.

Remember the Biblical story where they show a denarius to Jesus complaining about Roman taxes? That is why this coin of Tiberius is known as the Tribute Penny – “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s.” It always comes down to the abuse of power using taxation.

US Tells Americans to Leave Russia ASAP!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I am an American living in Moscow. We were just told that all Americans should leave Russia ASAP by the US embassy. I think all the governments are now looking at Socrates. Your name is even well known here in Moscow.  Maybe you have more influence than you realize.

anonymous

REPLY: Well, I have been interviewed on Russian TV several times. RT even asked me about our forecast that Ukraine would be the hot spot a year in advance and we predicted that this would be where WWIII would begin. It is the American press that refuses to cover any of our forecasts. Amazon and Netflix refused to show the movie the Forecaster in the United States. You can what it on Amazon only outside the USA. Then, we were selling the DVD on Amazon in the USA since they refused to stream it. Then that listing was “hacked” to shut that down. The only way to get the DVD is now to order it through our site. All of this just shows how desperate it has become in the United States to actually have a free society. I get a lot of requests for interviews outside the United States. Even the Forecaster Movie was funded by German TV. No American firm would dare produce a film that exposed the corruption in our Judicial system!

Look, EVERY intelligence service monitors our forecasts. Everyone knows this is a computer, not my personal opinion. Consequently, they want the cold hard facts and the timing. Are they acting because of our timing models? No. If they were, they would back off because our models also show the US will lose this one.

Historically, when such an advisory is issued, it is because of a conflict that is imminent. Beware in April/May. The Pi Target on Ukraine is April 26th, 2023. We are headed into a period in that only the computer can project timing with an objective attitude.

The Coming War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:

Hi Marty,

As it appears the US is marching toward war, what is notable this time, unlike what happened in the run-up to US participation in WW2, was the sense of isolationism in this country. Roosevelt was clearly walking a fine line, knowing there was no stomach for US involvement in Europe. US involvement in WW1 also started out similarly with many in the US, in particular those of Irish descent who opposed helping the British in their battle in Europe. Wilson, another Democrat, also walked the straight and narrow, professing neutrality which history shows was a lie. Later, his 14 points, the forerunner to an imposed peace on Germany, would backfire. The League of Nations would die off.

But today, unlike the prior two world wars, both democrats and republicans appear to embrace an escalation in conflict. And with an old, decrepit mannequin in the WH, it looks like there’s nothing stopping this push toward war. Republicans especially are a total disgrace. They stabbed Trump in the back repeatedly or let him twist in the wind for 4 years and for the first two when they were the majority party…did little to show their one chance to lead. Trump did more for peace than any president since Kennedy. Trump at least tried to engage Xie, met with the North Korean leader and focused more on building up the US domestic economy. He tore up US participation in these climate pacts. He focused on building the wall to stem the flow of illegals crossing the border. Her met with the Mexican president and forced his counterpart to accept an arrangement that kept illegals inside Mexico pending and petitions later to the US government for entry based on their applications.  And for all this, he was the target for a fraud based on collusion to get elected with Russian help. Which turned out to be baseless. Later, he was implicated in the Jan 6 insurrection…courtesy of both parties. Which itself was a total fabrication.

Both Dems and R’s are now marching lockstep toward war. It’s no wonder public opinion toward the government is sinking to all-time lows. In both parties. Both of which will be swept away in the years ahead for betraying this country on so many levels.

MS

REPLY: Hillary, started this whole mess by launching the fake dossier and blaming Putin for interring in the election. She managed to convince 70% of Democrats that Russia was the enemy. RussiaGate, despite being discredited, set in motion this hatred for Russia. Still, 65% of Americans support Ukraine when in fact what they are doing is relying on a border drawn by Kruschev for administrative purposes and demanding that the Donbas is their territory when NEVER for even a single day have Ukrainian people ever been the majority in that region. This is a land grab and nothing more that is engulfing the entire world all because our idiot politicians want to destroy the world economy so they can blame it on war and default on all the debt.

I get hate mail and death threats from Ukrainian Nazis pretty regularly now. This only shows that we are historically on the wrong side. In WWII, we fought against the Nazo movement. This time, we support ethnic cleansing.

Americans fled here to escape the political chaos and warmongering in Europe. So when WWI and WWII took place, the American people saw no reason to go support a political movement that they had fled. Indeed, FDR’ solemn campaign promise was no boys would be sent to fight in a foreign war. That is why he did everything possible to get Japan to attack Pearl Harbor for that was the ONLY way to overcome the anti-war position of Americans. They have done the same to get Russia to act to protect the Donbas from the Ukrainians who began the civil war.

FDR repeated that solemn promise in Boston which was predominantly Irish. They refused to defend Britain openly recalling what the English did to the Irish. That was why FDR needed Japan to attack Pearl Harbor. Today, they needed Russia to launch its special operation which was absolutely legal under the United Nations Rules for he was protecting the Donbas, not seeking to conquer Ukraine.

All of those memories of past wars are long gone. Today, we cheer on war because we think it will be like watching Iraq on CNN after nightly dinner. As they say:

War & Disease – What Comes Next After COVID


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Feb 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I found it really interesting how you have used the coinage to ascertain the costs of wars and to confirm the history. You have shown coins that show even the opening of the Colosseum. Are there any that record the plagues in history?

Thank you for a free and interesting site.

PV

REPLY: Ancient coins have been used throughout the centuries. Here is a Roman Sestertius of the Roman Port of Ostia. Saint Peter’s Square is the entrance to St Peter’s. Bernini actually copies the idea of the two colonnades from Nero’s coin. Some did not understand the history and claimed that Bernini was symbolizing the embracing maternal arms of the Catholic Church. It was the Port of Ostia which was the entrance to Rome for all the ships around the world. Thus, Bernini used the Port of Ostia to symbolize that this was the entrance for all Christians from around the world.

There was a great plague that infected Rome which was brought from Asia exactly as was the case by invading armies who brought the Black Plague during the 14th century. Emperor Trajan Decius (249-251AD) and his oldest son Herennius Etruscus (251AD) were killed in battle against the invading Goths. His youngest son, Hostilian (251AD) died of the plague.

This coin was issued by Trebonianus Gallus (251-253AD) appealing to Apollo Salutaris who was believed to have been the god of healing. This was the Plague of Cyprian that infected the Roman Empire from about 249 to 262 AD. It takes its name from St. Cyprian, who was the bishop of Carthage. He was a historian who witnessed and described the plague. It is not known precisely what it was. But from the description, it may have been smallpox, measles, and perhaps a viral hemorrhagic fever along the lines of the Ebola virus. What we do know is that this plague weakened Rome during the 3rd century causing a widespread decline in the workforce. That resulted in food shortages for a lack of manpower to produce food for the Roman army itself. This contributed greatly to the collapse of the 3rd century.

The Antonine Plague of 165 to 180AD, was the first known pandemic impacting the Roman Empire. It was most likely contracted by soldiers who were returning from campaigns in the Near East and spread throughout the empire. Historians generally believe the plague was smallpox or possibly measles. In 169 AD, the plague most likely took the life of Roman Emperor Lucius Verus. It appeared, according to ancient sources, during the Roman siege of the Mesopotamian city of Seleucia in the winter of 165–166. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio at the time, the disease broke out again nine years later in 189 AD. That time he said it caused up to 2,000 deaths per day in the city of Rome. The total death count at the time ranged between 5 and 10 million. About 25T of those who contracted the plague died. This amounted to about 10% of the population.

A third major plague struck during the 6th century. Research has been conducted on skeletons that have survived. It has been confirmed that DNA from Yersinia pestis—the same bacterium responsible for the Black Death—was the cause of the Justinianic plague. This plague also became a pandemic that spread throughout the Mediterranean region and beyond.

What is significant about this plague is that it took place during a Volcanic Winter. There were the great volcanic eruptions that created the extreme weather events of 535–536AD during the reign of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian I (527-565AD). A mysterious cloud appeared over the Mediterranean basin according to the historian Procopius of Caesarea (Procopius Caesarensis; c. 500-560 AD) who wrote: “The sun gave forth its light without brightness, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.” This was a volcanic cloud that blocked the sun. But it was not a volcano in that region. The cloud’s appearance created climate cooling for more than a decade. Crops failed, and there was widespread famine. This also sets in motion a pandemic known as the Plague of Justinian (541-542), which swept through the Eastern Roman Empire killing 5,000 to 10,000 people per day in Constantinople.

War has been the catalyst for disease. Why? The movement of populations from one region to another has historically spread disease. Even when the Europeans visited America, they brought diseases that killed many Indians. Likewise, Europeans who had sex with Indian women brought back to Europe Syphilis which did not previously exist in Europe.  The Black Plague of the 14th century was brought about by the invading Tartars in Crimea. They began catapulting dead bodies into the Italian fort which then panicked and took the disease back to Europe.

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans. Once again, it coincided with World War I.

What we must be on guard against as our World Leaders are pushing to war once again, this one will engage the entire world. The likelihood of another major pandemic will be huge. What will it be this time? Normally, we should expect it to be the Black Plague. However, with the genetic manipulation and gain of function these people have been toying with, we cannot rule out that this time will be along the lines of COVID where the vaccines failed to prevent anyone from contracting COVID and actually made most more vulnerable in the future.

UFO Shootdown #4 – U.S. Military Shoot Down Another UFO Over Lake Huron


Posted originally on the CTH on February 12, 2023 | Sundance

According to multiple media reports, the U.S. military has engaged another Unidentified Flying Object over Lake Huron (Michigan) and shot it down.  This represents the fourth UFO targeted and destroyed by the U.S. military in the past eight days.

The dogfight between an F-16 and the mysterious object took place just hours after Montana Representative Matt Rosendale confirmed the sighting yesterday over Northern Montana was not “an anomaly” and was indeed an unknown flying object in the sky. [Tweet Link]

(Reuters) – The U.S. military on Sunday shot down an unidentified flying object above Lake Huron, the third such shootdown in as many days, following a week-long Chinese balloon spying saga that has intensified the hunt for violations of North American airspace.

Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the military had shot down the object. They also did not say whether it was maneuverable or simply floating with air currents.

[…] Meanwhile, Canadian investigators are hunting for the wreckage of an unidentified flying object that was shot down by a U.S. jet over Yukon territory on Saturday.

[…] U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat who represents a district in Michigan, said the military had an “extremely close eye” on an object above Lake Huron, which is east of Lake Michigan on the U.S.-Canada border.

Canada also closed airspace on Sunday near Tobermory, Ontario, which is on Lake Huron near the U.S. border, according to Nav Canada, a private non-profit that operates Canada’s air traffic control system.

China denies the first balloon was being used for surveillance and says it was a civilian research craft. It condemned the United States for shooting it down off the coast of South Carolina last Saturday.

With military and intelligence officials newly focused on airborne threats, at least two other flying objects have since been destroyed over North America.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told U.S. broadcaster ABC that U.S. officials think the two latest objects were also balloons. The original balloon was brought down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4. A second was shot down over sea ice near Deadhorse, Alaska, on Friday. The third was destroyed over the Yukon on Saturday. (read more)

1) smaller than a car

2) shot down at 40000 ft

3) reportedly interfered with one of the jet fighters’ electronics

4) reportedly had no obvious means of propulsion or means to fly

5)  silver grey

6) US officials described the object as a “small metallic balloon with a tethered payload,” while other media reports described it as “cylindrical” in shape.  [*ability to evade detection]

7) Canada Minister of defense said they “defeated” object. Strange choice of words.

No pics of wreckage. Object over Lake Huron “decommissioned”. Rectangular structure. Taken out at 20,000 ft by F-16 with missile. Another object reported over China port.