Tag Archives: Cycle of Civilization

Feb 3 2020

How Long Does it Take to Accept the Revelations of the Economic Confidence Model?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Feb 2, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I have to respectfully disagree with the comment made by CR in the last blog, “The Dow & the Economic Confidence Model”. In the email he said, “Marty, I have to laugh. Only those who have followed you more 20 years understand you have discovered the hidden order behind the facade.” Not all of us that know have been around that long nor did it take us long to figure out.

I would say it would take one with their own mind, methods and models, and like you said someone willing to learn, that would be able to capture all of this and add what they already have to your model. There are those of us with a lot to bring to the game that haven’t been around that long but started to get it right away when we first started studying the model. I’m sure that was just a general statement focusing on themselves and their immediate group, but I found it inaccurate nonetheless.

Regardless, keep up the good work on your part.

EM

REPLY: I think what he really means is that I have had similar comments from people who have been followers only since 2012. What they have expressed is watching geopolitical events but this time the Dow peaked on the very day. Just comments distinguishing events from markets.

The Wave #932 saw so much from the precise day of the low in the US share market April 1st, 1994 to the high on July 20th, intermixed with the move in the dollar when it made its low in June 1997 and the Asian currency crisis hit in July. Of course, there was the Russian bond collapse which then set off a contagion that resulted in a massive liquidity crisis. Global markets were all collapsing because the “club” lost a fortune on Russia and their bribes being paid to the IMF to keep the loans going. When that manipulation failed, they had to start selling everything everywhere to raise cash even the collapse in the Japanese yen.

The peak not only marked the beginning of the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis forcing the Federal Reserve to step in for the first time to bail out a hedge fund but it marked the start of the Euro which was officially set on January 1st, 1999 and then at the bottom in 2002, that was the introduction of euro paper currency.

The Pi target marked precisely 911 which changed our world dramatically tp the day, and then 2002 was the bottom of the share market again. There are just so many events that take place with this model that it proves people who refuse to accept it are predetermined like those who refused to ever accept that the earth was not flat. All they do is try to disparage the messenger because they cannot explain why the message is wrong.

It takes some convincing, but not necessarily 20 years. I think what he meant was that after 20 years, they just expect it to work in this fashion.

 

Feb 2 2020

The Dow & the Economic Confidence Model


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Feb 2, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I have to laugh. Only those who have followed you more 20 years understand you have discovered the hidden order behind the facade. Fantastic call on this turn in the ECM. Once again to the very day in the Dow. And people do not think your model is real? They must be idiots who also worship Greta.

All the best

REPLY: I know. They cannot get their head around the fact that the Economic Confidence Model has pinpointed so many events in markets to geopolitical events to the very day. This proves BEYOND a shadow of a doubt that there is a hidden order behind the chaos.

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The 1987 Crash and the new highs into 1989 along with the Japanese Bubble may be the most famous forecasts I have done with this model. But there have been so many others which have worked to the precise day in markets like this one to within the same week generally regarding geopolitical events.

The 1998 forecast also landed me being named hedge fund manager of the year. I had sold the stock market the very day of the high on July 20th, 1998 and caught the ride down for the Long-Term Capital Management debacle.

The forecasts it made back in 1981 were also amazing. It was off 2 days for the peak in interest rates when the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate to 14% on May 5th when the model targeted May 7th. It picked on the Pi turning point the negotiations to hand Hong Kong back to China, then on August 21st, Japan agreed to join the G5 which became known as the Plaza Accord on August 21, 1985, when the target was Sunday, August 25th. We even took the back cover of the Economist Magazine for three weeks in July 1985 to announce that the bottom of the cycle of deflation was reached and that a new wave of inflation was about to begin.

While 1989.95 picked the peak in the Bubble Top in Japan, the precise day of the low in the stock market in the USA came on the bottom of that wave on April 1, 1994.

 

After that wave market the precise day of the high in the S&P500 on July 20th, 1998, the Pi turning point picked precisely the day of the 911 attack. Then the bottom of the wave was to be Sunday November 6th, 2002, and the market bottomed the next week.

The wave which peaked in 2007.15 picked the precise day of the high in the Schiller Real Estate Index. The Pi target marked the precise day Greece applied for the IMF loan beginning the whole European debt crisis.

The top of this wave 2015.75 marked the start of Merkel opening the gates to the European refugees which have been the downfall of Europe. It marked the very day that Russian troops entered Syria. We now have the temporary high in the US stock market at the bottom of this wave.

Sure, no matter what evidence I put forward, there will be people who refuse to believe anything. We need those type of people for that are what make the cycle work. We all also have our personal life-cycle where we grow in experience and knowledge. We begin life ignorant and those who are smart, actually learn from their mistakes. As we proceed through life, we change and adapt so in the early stages of life we buy the high and sell the low. Those of us who are actually intelligent and are capable of learning from our mistakes, mature and then we become the people who sell the high to the novice and buy when they panic and sell everything at the low.

The morons, incapable of ever learning the lessons of life, cry to government that they WOULD HAVE BEEN correct except for some devil who manipulated the market against them. What they are really doing is refusing to admit that they were wrong. That inability to learn the lessons of life keep them perpetually on the wrong side of the cycle. We need those fools. I choose not to be a fool and assume I can teach anyone. If you have the spark of curiosity, then you have the ability to learn and advance in life which is what this journey is all about – the quest for knowledge.

A professor from Princeton University once told me I reminded him of Einstein. I was shocked. I said I was not some genuine is physics. He explained to me that was not what he saw. He said it was my curiosity to try to figure out what made things function. It does not matter what the subject might be or the task. It is the curiosity that made one try to sail across the Atlantic when others feared the end of the world. It has been my curiosity which has driven me to try to understand how a business cycle can act so precisely throughout even ancient history. This has been the curiosity of my life I have tried to share with those who share my curiosity.

 

No, the mainstream press will not report this. It is not something the majority is yet willing to hea

Jan 31 2020

The Euro v Pound


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Despite all the yelling and threats on top of forecasts that Britain will fall apart without the EU, the markets do not reflect such a doomsday outlook. We do see 2021 and 2023 as important targets for turning points. The critical level will still remain at the 8250 level. If that is breached, then the political crisis in the EU will begin. The departure of Britain will leave a major hole in the budget of the EU which wants to fund its own army. As pressure rises on other members to chip in more money and raise taxes on their citizens even further, the European Project will remain a serious threat to the entire world economy.

 

Jan 31 2020

Nigel Farage on the Meaning of Brexit


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Jan 31 2020

Nigel Farage’s Final Appearance in the EU Parliament


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

 

Jan 31 2020

Brexit Day Has Arrived!


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Posted Jan 31, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Welcome to Brexit Day! The British Mint is issuing a new 50 pence coin to mark leaving the EU at last. High-profile figures are already pledging to boycott the new coin. Alastair Campbell will boycott the coin because the slogan opposes his core beliefs. Philip Pullman will as well because, he says, it is missing an Oxford comma. These two people reflect the decline and fall of democracy. They simply refuse to accept the majority vote.

Of course, those who were in the “Remain” camp used every foul label they could find in the Oxford dictionary to desperately dehumanize those who voted to leave. The main label that stuck was to call them “racists” when the immigrants pouring from Merkel’s fatal mistake were claiming to be Muslim, which is a religion and not a race.

The “Remain” camp was even striking their own coins and selling them on eBay. These show the Queen holding her head when in fact the behind-the-curtain view was that she very much agreed with getting out of the EU.

Theresa May was a career politician who personally wanted to REMAIN. She negotiated half-heartedly and that was reflected in her abysmal management of the government.

 

The most interesting aspect to demonstrate just how corrupt the politicians were in Britain who kept arguing to REMAIN was the fact that they were supporting their personal power and careers. All someone had to do was chart the government’s own statistics that proved Britain’s economic growth has declined ever since Britain joined the EU back in 1973. The continental Europeans in government have always resented the British, for without them they would be speaking German today. That has always left a resentful taste in their mouths. It’s kind of like how they say the best way to get rid of a friend is to lend them money.

There will always be that resentment toward Britain. The French demanded that no EU member should issue coins that commemorated the defeat of Napoleon. There was a commemorative issue of coins, but they were not allowed to circulate pursuant to the demand of the French to join the euro. Resentments linger in Europe and always will. It is ingrained within the culture of so many hundreds of years of conflicts and war. The creation of the euro will never change history

Jan 28 2020

Discovering Cycles


Armstrong Economics Blog/Products and Services

Re-Posted Jan 28, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Speaking of cycles and frequency I guess the question is how to find the exact beginning of a cycle? You say 8.6 is the base frequency. Why not 8.5875? In other words, how do you come up with the exact day a cycle begins?

A

ANSWER: You have to discover them. The 8.6 I discovered from a list of international panics covering 1683 to 1907 that I stumbled upon while doing research in the Firestone Library at Princeton University. There were 26 events within 224 years. That was 8.6153846… When I began to test it, I discovered it was interlaced with volatility, which moves on a different frequency of a base of 6. This is a very deep subject that cannot be addressed in a simple blog post.

 

I will release two books on this subject this year – “The Geometry of Time” and “The Economic Confidence Model.” I am working hard to get a series of books out now. Trying to finish up my goals. These will deal with the cyclical nature of time and the world we live in.

Categories: Products and Services, Understanding Cycles
Jan 28 2020

Are Climate Activists Displaying Patterns of Violence That Always Undermines Civilization?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 28, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it interesting how the entire climate crisis people are pushing so hard to seize everything and force zero CO2 which is impossible when a volcano or forest fire releases far more CO2 than driving cars around. Then they ignore the sun entirely when even NASA said we are headed into a cooling people.

 

REPLY: The press helped them to push this agenda because all they are interested in has been catchy headlines to sell advertising. There is no more truth in newsrooms anymore — it’s just not profitable. Yes, NASA warned we were heading into a cooling period back in 2018. Despite all of that, I get emails claiming I am wrong and they should shut down this blog. These are evil people who have always been a danger to any free society, for they seek to oppress and eventually kill anyone who disagrees with them. It never matters what the subject might be. This pattern of behavior ALWAYS historically leads to violence be it religion, economics (Marxism), or now climate. They just hate people and that’s the bottom line.

 

The subject matter seems to be irrelevant. They display the same pattern that has led to millions of deaths throughout history. The hatred they display is eerily similar to the rise of Communism during first the Revolutions of 1848 and then the early 20th century. This will lead to major bloodshed by 2036. The bottom of that cycle was 2005, which marked three important events.

 

  1. The IRA announced the end to armed conflict and gave up its weapons to independent weapons inspectors
  2. Israeli settlers were forced to leave settlements in the Gaza Strip as part of a peace settlement
  3. Syria withdrew the last of its 14,000 troop military garrison in Lebanon ending its 29-year military occupation

The peak of that cycle will be 3

Jan 27 2020

Seeing Cycles Everywhere Around Us


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Jan 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

 

For years, it has been a sort of family joke that I view the world around me and see the cycles in everything. I had walked into a casino and noticed there were cycles to the numbers coming out on a roulette wheel, but more fascinating was that the cycles were unique to each dealer. This is why casinos rotate the dealers from table to table. I notice this particular dealer was very cyclical one night so when the casino moved him, I closed and followed him to the next table. This was back around 1971, and I was winning a lot so people began watching me. Some very big player from Texas came and sat beside me and whatever I played he did too. We made so much money they closed the casino. Whenever I would walk into a casino and start to play roulette, within 30 minutes they came to me and asked my name and would always say we recognize you as a player. I would cash out and just leave.

Triple-Crown-odds

There was a family gathering and my daughter was always fond of horses. The talk was all about the Triple Crown. They said no one had won since 1978. I did the wave math in my head and replied that this year the horse will win. I do not even follow horses. They just looked at me and asked, “You can forecast that too?” I simply looked at the stats and saw the cycles. I said this is the year the horse will win – and American Pharaoh won. What did I see in the stats? The major turning point from 1978 should be 37.33 (8.6 * 4.3) bringing it to 2015. The horse won. I didn’t bet on the race. Like the scene in the movie the Matrix, I just see the cycles to everything around me.

Now there is Jason Padgett, who is 41, and he sees complex mathematical formulas everywhere he looks. He sees the geometry in everything. He said, “I see bits and pieces of the Pythagorean theorem everywhere.” He continued, “Every single little curve, every single spiral, every tree is part of that equation.” He hand draws what he sees and he is a college drop out but understands and sees the fractal nature of everything. As I have tried to explain, everything is connected and there is absolutely nothing void of a cycle. Even when something dies, there is a cycle to the decay as everything turns back to dust as they say.

Padgett can draw a visual representation of the formula pi, which is really an infinite number that begins with 3.14. He explains, “A fractal is a shape that when you take the shape a part into pieces, the pieces are the same or similar to the whole. So say I had 1,000 pictures of you, that were little and I put all those little pictures of you in the right spot to make the exact same picture of you, but bigger.” While Benoit Mandelbrot is credited with discovering Fractal Geometry, he was not someone who could see it in the real world all around him. He was a mathematician and his attempt to apply it to things was not very helpful.

I have tried to explain why cycles exist. Any time I have been wrong, it has simply been my interpretation of the cycle, not that there is no cycle. The reason you can find a cycle that works for a bit and then it suddenly vanishes has been because of the interconnections – not the fact that cycles do not work. For you see, the interconnections are what produce the major overwhelming events, which is why economists are always wrong and have been unable to forecast the future. The Great Depression of the 1930s was a conjunction of many cycles such as technology where the invention of the combustion engine reduced the need for workers in agriculture. Like the internet is replacing local book and camera stores, tractors reduced the agricultural workforce from 40% to 3% causing unemployment to rise. Add to that the Dust Bowl, the Sovereign Debt Crisis in 1931, and the excess capital inflows fleeing Europe, what you ended up with was a bubble economy like Japan into 1989, and then the dramatic decline. Such events and NEVER simply one cause. Nevertheless, every investigation into such events always attempts to reduce it to a single cause and effect which is impossible.

What is most fascinating about Padgett is that this remarkable gift appeared only after he was attacked and suffered some brain damage. Berit Brogaard, who was a neuroscientist at the Center for Neurodynamics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis flew Padgett to Finland to run a series of tests as to why he could suddenly see the fractal world around him. The results revealed that his brain showed the damage from the attack he suffered, but the brain rewired itself and was using particular areas that most people don’t have access to. Padgett had become an acquired savant, which means he was brilliant but in a specific area. His story is quite fascinating. He has acquired talent to see the fractal interconnections and suddenly was able to draw what he sees. Remarkable!

Jan 27 2020

Northwoods & Cycle of War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Jan 27, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

CycleOfWar-2014

This particular Cycle of War is the combination of two models: 1) international war, and 2) domestic civil unrest. This is the first time these two models have coincided in the same time slot for about 300 years. We should expect a rise in civil unrest going into 2022, but the international war cycle is targeting 2032. We are witnessing a sharp intense rise in civil unrest on a global scale. This is what we should be most concerned about, for this is what leads to separatist movements and in many cases civil war.

I will update the Cycle of War in 2020