Tag Archives: Multiculturalism

Oct 14 2022

September Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation Continuing to Rise More Than Expected, Fed Raising Rates Having No Impact Because it is NOT Demand Side Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) today [DATA HERE].  The financial and business media call the continued rise of consumer inflation “unexpected,” however, the results are not a surprise to those who are not pretending.

This CNBC headline highlights the economic pretense still entrenched: “Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes.”  Those who are not pretending fully understand the economic dynamic, but you will not find reality expressed by the mainstream media.

FED rate hikes can only impact the demand side of the inflation issue. U.S (and global) inflation is NOT the result of excess demand. It has not been driven by demand for over a year.  The root cause of inflation is on the supply side. That root is grounded in the energy policy making everything entering the marketplace more expensive.

The historic rise in energy prices; the result of Joe Biden’s specific energy policy to limit oil, gas and coal as energy resources; are what have driven inflation throughout the economy.  The monetary policy (Fed policy) continues to pretend this dynamic does not exist.  The FED is trying to support the political policy, but the bloom is off the ruse.

Overall inflation increased 0.4% in September, leading to a result of 8.2% year over year.  Food and energy prices continue driving inflation, additionally core inflation (everything except food and energy) continues to be driven by the originating issue of extreme energy costs.

Everything costs more because energy costs more.  That is the reality of this inflation issue.

[Modified Table-1, removing the noise]

(CNBC) […] “The Federal Reserve has made it very clear they’re committed to price stability, they’re committed to reducing the inflationary pressures,” said Michelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute. “The more inflation comes in above expectations, the more they’re going to have to prove that commitment, which means higher interest rates and cooling in the underlying economy.”

Another large jump in food prices boosted the headline number. The food index rose 0.8% for the month, the same as August, and was up 11.2% from a year ago.

That increase helped offset a 2.1% decline in energy prices that included a 4.9% drop in gasoline. Energy prices have moved higher in October, with the price of regular gasoline at the pump nearly 20 cents higher than a month ago, according to AAA.

Closely watched shelter costs, which make up about one-third of CPI, rose 0.7% and are up 6.6% from a year ago. Transportation services also showed a big bump, increasing 1.9% on the month and 14.6% on an annual basis. Medical care services costs rose 1% in September.

The rising costs meant more bad news for workers, whose average hourly earnings declined 0.1% for the month on an inflation-adjusted basis and are off 3% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS release.  Inflation is rising despite aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to get price increases under control. (more)

I feel like we are living in a parallel universe, where this grand game of pretense continues.

Every financial pundit knows the root cause of inflation is Joe Biden’s energy policy, yet they maintain the lies in order to protect the regime.

Raising interest rates in a supply side inflation economy only does one thing, it makes the economy contract faster.  The only reason to intentionally shrink the economy is to try and reduce the demand for energy resources as part of the “transition to a green economy.”  Together, the Biden administration and Federal Reserve are trying to lower economic output to meet a lowered amount of energy being produced.  That is the reality of our situation.

They are destroying the working and middle class in order to chase their climate change agenda.  These people must be removed from power.

Oct 14 2022

Real Average Hourly Wages Continue to Decline as Inflation Destroys Economy and Now Hours Worked is Contracting


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the September wage report [DATA HERE] delivering worse economic news for workers.

Real wages are dropping at a historic rate as inflation continues to rise and as a result wages buy less.

[BLS] “Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2021 to September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.” (link)

REAL WAGE CHART:

As the Biden economic/energy policy and Federal Reserve monetary policy merge together, the economy shrinks.  As the economy shrinks, fewer goods and services are purchased.  As less consumer goods are purchased, employment hours drop.  As employment hours drop, wages decline.

Declining wages combined with increased inflation forms the perfect storm against middle-class and working-class families.  This dynamic means lowered income and higher prices for essential goods and services like food, fuel, energy and housing.  It’s not difficult to see why this is happening.

The declining wage rates, and the more substantive drop in real wage rates due to massive inflation, are specifically hitting the lower tier of the working class harder.  Yet despite this, Biden is intent on importing even more economic migrants to put even more downward pressure on wages for the working class.

These are very real outcomes of policy.  Working class Blacks and Latinos will feel this even more, yet this is the special interest group that Democrats claim to support.  The reality is exactly opposite from the narrative sold by the Biden administration.

The Democrats know this. These outcomes are not accidental; they are a feature not a flaw in their policy.  This is why they need to keep spending to retain the ruse.

There’s no way around this.  Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash, and unemployment will go up.  I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear.

CTH was the first place who said a year ago that home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now.  There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

Oct 13 2022

Leading Edge of Field to Fork Inflation Starts to Arrive in September Producer Price Index


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):

Get ready and shop smart.

The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.

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Oct 12 2022

Liz Truss’ Approval Plummets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Truss inherited a beaten-down United Kingdom. The Bank of England declared that a recession was inevitable, sterling continues to fall, pension funds are evaporating, and the death of the queen caused an overall feeling of pessimism. Recent polls show that Truss is actually less popular than her predecessor Boris Johnson, even when Johnson was under fire for partying amid COVID lockdowns. Liz Truss currently has an approval rating of -47.

Theresa May had a score of around -46 before she resigned. Based on an Opinium poll of around 2,000 people, 53% would like Truss to resign. Even around 25% of Tory voters want her out of office only a month into the job. Even voters divided over the Brexit ruling disapprove of her with 61% of Leave voters noting disapproval, as well as 61% in the Remain camp.

“I am prepared to be unpopular,” Truss said shortly after taking office. Her proposed tax cuts for the wealthy and removal of caps on bankers’ bonuses caused the average citizen to feel as if she did not represent them. The International Monetary Fund said her plans would “increase inequality,” only adding to her criticism. She is under pressure to increase welfare payments and social programs.

Truss simply inherited a massive problem. Her government is also blamed for the rising mortgage crisis. The Bank of England is set to meet again on November 3, but many believe they may reveal their policy beforehand. They want to avoid the downturn that occurred after the mini-budget was released at the end of September. In the end – it is politics. Truss needs to appeal to the people before the Conservatives find a replacement scapegoat.

Oct 11 2022

The Bank of Canada Should Admit QE FAILED


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Oct 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

In 2020, Pierre Poilievre, chief Conservative spokesman on finance issues, said Canada’s central bank “should not be an ATM for Trudeau’s insatiable spending appetites.” Conservatives cooperated with the Liberals when it came to COVID-19 emergency spending. Everyone was in on that power grab. Now the nation is in worse shape, further in debt, and inflation is soaring.

Yet, Trudeau continues to spend recklessly without hesitation. The Bank of Canada (BoC) should remain neutral on political issues. Similar to the Federal Reserve, the BoC is the largest buyer of domestic debt. In response to criticism, the bank launched a social media campaign to deflect blame. “#YouAskedUs if we printed cash to finance the federal gov’t. We didn’t,” the Bank of Canada tweeted on August 25. Due to the pandemic, the central bank “took various measures, like buying bonds, to support and ensure a strong and stable #economy,” the bank tweeted. “We bought existing gov’t bonds from banks on the open market. Why? This helped unblock frozen markets at the start of the #pandemic. It let households, companies and governments access funding when they really needed it.”

This is the problem with those who believe they can manipulate the economy. Governments completely shut down the world for over a year and then claimed that they needed to spend as much as possible to save us from the crisis they created. “We did not use cash to pay for the bonds. We bought the bonds with settlement balances — a kind of central bank reserve — not with bank notes,” the bank continued to Tweet back in August. Basically, the strategy all along was Quantitative Easing. It failed.

They artificially lowered rates for too long and purchased government debt with no method for repayment. Their stupid idea of Quantitative Easing and lowering rates were under their theory that people would borrow if it were cheap enough. The central banks fail to understand that people will absolutely not borrow at any rate if there is no confidence. It has become conventional wisdom that when all else fails to make economies grow, create new money and buy government bonds. Of course, the “all else” never includes deregulation and lowering taxes.

Now Governor Tiff Macklem is posting videos on Twitter to explain why the bank raised rates by 300 bps in the past six months. Yes, “inflation is too high,” as Macklem pointed out, but he’s acting a bit too late. “It is by raising interest rates that we’re going to slow spending in the economy, give the economy time to catch up and take the steam out of inflation,” Macklem said in the video. “That’s gonna [sic] get inflation back down.” WHAT ABOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING? Monetary policy does not align with the bank’s goals, as Trudeau’s continued spending will prolong inflation.

Oct 11 2022

Crimea was a Neo-Nazi Terrorist Attack


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

My sources in Crimea have confirmed that this was a Ukrainian Neo-Nazi terrorist attack. The driver of this 18-wheeler died. He picked up a load of fertilizer and was not part of the plot. They were watching and blew up the truck remotely killing the driver and the car next to it and blowing up the bridge. Ukraine itself has not taken credit for it. This was a coordinated attack by the Neo-Nazis. I cannot express how much hatred these people have stored up inside. They waited to detonate the truck when it was under a train of tankers filled with fuel.

Oct 11 2022

The Madman of Ukraine in High Heels


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin
It is obvious that Zelensky does not have a brain and is being controlled by outside forces. Is it Schwab or is he just a front also? You probably know more than what is going on than anyone else including intelligence.
Thank you
All the best
MW

REPLY: I cannot say everything without compromising some sources. These people have played a dangerous game. Putin never intended to wage war on Ukraine. He was there to do what he said, protect the Russian population in the Donbas and Crimea, which have NEVER been occupied by Ukrainians. Zelensky should go back to dancing in high heels and leave the real world to serious people.

This launching of 83 missiles is the biggest attack on Kyiv since the war began. That in itself proves he was never trying to conquer Ukraine. This propaganda is all strategically being put out to create war. Europe needs this because it can no longer fund itself on the same basis of endless borrowing with no intention of ever repaying the debt. The failure to have consolidated the debt from the outset is tearing Europe apart. These people think (1) they can defeat Russia and chalk one up for climate change since 50% of Russia’s GDP is energy, and (2) a war will allow them all to default and create another Bretton Woods while reducing the population. These are real objectives.

Putin never struck Kyiv because that was the home of the Russ, where the Russians began. Only the destruction of Kyiv in 1240AD by the Mongold resulted in them settling in Moscow. Kyiv to Putin was more or less like London has been to the United States. This attack on Kyiv is what I have been warning about. Putin has been criticized by the hardliners for being too soft on Ukraine. They are not as nostalgic about Kyiv as Putin has been.

The West is pushing Russia and they will get what they want – war. This is just insane. The Ukrainian people need to overthrow Zelensky – NOW! He is not putting their best interests first. It has been confirmed he has already stashed more than $100 million offset and he will fly away on a private jet leaving the death and destruction behind. Maybe then he will change his shirt.

In the meantime, Russia can take down the power grid of Europe with a handful of missiles. Without alternatives, Europe’s current energy shortfall will worsen this winter. If Russia attacks the satellites, without GPS, most people will be lost today. Things can get really messed up without nuclear war.

Oct 11 2022

Biden Announces U.S. Air Defense System for Ukraine Following Retaliatory Russian Missile Attacks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 10, 2022 | Sundance

In a statement today from the White House, Joe Biden has pledged “to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems.” [link]  The statement comes as a result of a phone call between Biden and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Two days ago, a bridge between Russia and Crimea was bombed by Ukraine causing a section of the bridge to collapse.  Yesterday, Vladimir Putin retaliated with missile strikes against several cities in Ukraine and key infrastructure for energy.

The U.S. State Dept and CIA are continuing to lead and coordinate the Ukraine war effort with U.S. personnel in place to organize operations. [link]

Like the bombing of the Nordstream pipeline, it is highly likely the Kerch Strait bridge targeting was planned by Ukraine and the United States.  However, we are not permitted to speak about these coordinated efforts. The bottom line is the U.S. Biden administration going further toward direct engagement with Russia via the proxy state of Ukraine.

KYIV, Ukraine — President Vladimir V. Putin unleashed a far-reaching series of missile strikes against cities across Ukraine on Monday, hitting the heart of Kyiv and other areas far from the front line, in the broadest assault against civilians since the early days of Russia’s invasion.

Mr. Putin said the strikes on almost a dozen cities were retaliation for a blast that destroyed sections of a bridge linking Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, though they also seemed intended to appease hard-liners in Russia who had been openly critical over the prosecution of the war.

Denouncing the bombing of the Kremlin-built bridge, an embarrassing blow, as a “terrorist attack,” Mr. Putin threatened more strikes if Ukraine hit Russian targets again.

“No one should have any doubt about it,” he said. (read more)

BIG PICTURE – The baseline for the global aspect to the Ukraine conflict remains rooted in the economic cleaving underway.  Saudi Arabia has expressed their alignment with OPEC+, including Russia, on a coordinated oil supply.  The NATO alliance broadly wants to pressure their partners away from oil, coal and natural gas.   Thus, today in addition to the phone call with Zelenskyy, Joe Biden called German Chancellor Olaf Scholz:

“President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany.  The leaders reiterated their condemnation of Russia’s attempted annexation of Ukrainian territory, as well as their ongoing commitment to hold Russia accountable for its brutal actions and provide security and economic assistance to Ukraine. The leaders also discussed recent developments in global energy markets and the importance of securing sustainable and affordable energy supplies.” (link)

The western ideologues, politicians, corporations and banks (yellow on map) are trying to force a new global energy system.  However, there is opposition from multiple nations (grey on map) who see the effort to shift away from oil, coal and natural gas as economic suicide.

We are now starting to see currencies like Brazil and Mexico having greater stability and growth than the value in U.S. dollars.  That said, in the long term the economics of this conflict will ultimately decide the outcome.

The citizens within the western alliance nations are suffering the consequences of the global economic cleaving.  Energy driven inflation, a purposefully created problem, is creating a recession amid the western alliance nations.  The monetary policy of U.S., EU, CA, NZ and AU is currently constructed to lower economic activity to support the reduced amount of energy resources available.

Specifically, because the Ukraine conflict is being used as a justification for political economic and monetary policy, there appears to be no limit in what the U.S. will do to widen the ideological war against Russia.  Unfortunately, the era of great pretending forbids anyone from talking openly about the true root of the issue.

It seems clear now that NATO, led by the USA, is willing to escalate a European war if that’s what it takes to protect the climate change goals.

Without Russia as the bad guy, the Build Back Better agenda becomes naked to the world.  The Ukraine conflict provides a visible shield to prevent any larger discussion.  Reference the attempt by Elon Musk to mitigate the Ukraine conflict by talking about a peace deal with Russia keeping the Russian speaking eastern Ukraine.  In the week since that proposal became international fodder for ridicule, the conflict in Ukraine has intensified.  This is not coincidental.

We are pretending our way into a war.

Oct 10 2022

Russia v USA


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Reports are coming in from a protest in Moscow against the United States after the Ukrainian attack upon the Crimea Bridge Saturday. Russians are calling for nuking Washington DC. No matter what country you go to, there is always going to be a pro-government and an anti-government position. The Ukrainian propaganda keeps claiming that some sort of revolution against Putin and he has ordered the arrest of military officers. But there are no independent sources that verify anything being put out by Ukraine, which tends to be fake news on so many levels. They will continue to wage a propaganda war in hopes that someone will listen and overthrow Putin. But my sources are very good. Putin is the moderate and I would be seriously concerned if he was overthrown for it would be by the hardlines who have been criticizing him for NOT being aggressive enough.

The Russian government did drive TWO “YARS” Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM’s) on the street in front of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. This is a failed proxy war to overthrow Russia for climate change. These people think overthrowing Putin and the people will cheer and end energy production which is 50% of Russia’s GDP. Look, there is no talking to these people. They believe what they want to believe and that is our problem. Nobody stops to ask: What if we are wrong?

My concern for timing remains the week of November 7th as well as next April.

Oct 10 2022

Holiday Expenses Rise in Canada


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Wishing our friends in the north a happy Thanksgiving.

Canada’s Thanksgiving is not as widely celebrated as America’s November feast. However, outside Quebec, around 90% of Canadians plan to celebrate the holiday. Everything from fuel to food is more expensive this year. Statistics Canada reported a 10.8% rise in food prices this August, marking the fastest pace of food inflation since 1981.

The Agri-food Analytics Lab (AAL) and Angus Reid conducted a survey (sample size 1,244) to see how Canadians plan to celebrate the holiday this year. Turkey prices have risen 16% per kilogram this year. In British Columbia, 29% of respondents said that they would be making changes to the meals they typically prepare due to food prices, while 25% in Alberta and 20% in Manitoba said the same. Around 19% of those celebrating in Ontario will be changing the menu due to costs, followed by 17% in the Atlantic, 10% in Quebec, and 8% in Saskatchewan.

In addition to turkey prices increasing, potatoes have spiked by 22% this year. Bread and dairy prices have gone up 13%, while cranberries have increased by 12%. Prices vary based on location, but they’re up in every province. So many are grateful for the harvest, albeit less bountiful.

Categories: Canada