Tag Archives: Responsibility to Protect

Dec 12 2016

FBI Disputes CIA’s “Fuzzy And Ambiguous” Claims That Russia Sought To Influence Presidential Election


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 9:44 AM

Since election day, Democrats have engaged in a panicked attempt to leverage their last couple of weeks in control of the executive branch to delegitimize the Trump presidency.  Obama has even gone so far as to order a “full report” on Russian tampering in the 2016 election cycle to be completed before he leaves office (see “A “Soft Coup” Attempt: Furious Trump Slams “Secret” CIA Report Russia Helped Him Win“).  Of course, we should simply ignore the fact that a true investigation of such allegations would take much longer than the one month that Obama has left in office because any delay could run the risk of a bipartisan/independent review and that’s just not how the Obama administration plays the game.

But at least one investigative agency, the FBI, isn’t buying the “fuzzy and ambiguous” assertions from the CIA that Russia “quite” clearly meddled in the U.S. elections on behalf of the Trump campaign.  Meanwhile, the FBI’s unwillingness to play along is infuriating Democrats.  Per the BizPac Review:

  The FBI did not corroborate the CIA’s claim that Russia had a hand in the election of President-elect Donald Trump in a meeting with lawmakers last week.

A senior FBI counterintelligence official met with Republican and Democrat members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in order to give the bureau’s view of a recent CIA report. The official did not concur with the CIA, frustrating Democrats.

The CIA believes Russia “quite” clearly intended to send Trump to the White House. The claim is a bold one and concerned Democrats and some Republicans who are worried about Trump’s desire to mend relations with an increasingly aggressive Russia. The CIA report was “direct, bold and unqualified,” one of the officials at the meeting told The Washington Post Saturday.

The FBI official was much less convinced of the claims, providing “fuzzy” and “ambiguous” remarks.

The Washington Post compiled the following comments from the weekend talk show circuit highlighting where various DC players stand on the Russia allegations.

 Meanwhile, the Washington Post also points out that the whole disagreement likely comes down to “cultural” differences between the FBI and CIA.  Apparently the FBI “wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something” while the CIA is “more comfortable drawing inferences.” 
 The competing messages, according to officials in attendance, also reflect cultural differences between the FBI and the CIA. The bureau, true to its law enforcement roots, wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something beyond all reasonable doubt. The CIA is more comfortable drawing inferences from behavior.

“The FBI briefers think in terms of criminal standards — can we prove this in court,” one of the officials said. “The CIA briefers weigh the preponderance of intelligence and then make judgment calls to help policymakers make informed decisions. High confidence for them means ‘we’re pretty damn sure.’ It doesn’t mean they can prove it in court.”

The FBI is not sold on the idea that Russia had a particular aim in its meddling. “There’s no question that [the Russians’] efforts went one way, but it’s not clear that they have a specific goal or mix of related goals,” said one U.S. official.

Well, that certainly seems reasonable…who needs “facts and tangible evidence” when the CIA can just “draw inferences“…they’re supposedly really smart so we should probably just believe them.

Dec 12 2016

Trump Slams “Conspiracy Theory” After John Bolton Suggests Russian Hack Was “False Flag” By Obama Administration


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 9:40 AM

With the unconfirmed report of Russian hacking of the US presidential election to benefit Donald Trump, coupled with the ongoing crackdown against Russian propaganda “fake news”, dominating the US media today, overnight the former neocon ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, who has been floated for the possible second highest role in Donald Trump’s State Department supporting Rex Tillerson, poured fuel on the fire with questions about Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election, going so far as to suggest that the “Russian hacks” were in fact a false flag operation by the current administration.

“It is not at all clear to me, just viewing this from the outside, that this hacking into the DNC and the RNC was not a false flag operation,” he told Fox News’ Eric Shawn on Sunday.  Asked about the use of the phrase “false flag” and whether he was accusing the US government of involvement, Bolton said, “We just don’t know.”

While skeptics have been quick to tear apart his allegation, where he was accurate is his assessment that “intelligence has been politicized in the Obama administration to a very significant degree.”

The topic of Russian interference surged on Friday after a Washington Post story revealed that according to a “secret” CIA assessment, Russia intervened in the election to help Trump win the presidency. Curiously, the FBI – and many others – have disagreed; so far no evidence has been presented to substantiate the story.

Various entities have been identified who helped the Russian government leak hacked documents from Democratic sources, including the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, to WikiLeaks, according to the report. On Sunday morning, Trump assailed Democrats over the issue, saying it was “ridiculous” to think Russia interfered in the election to help him get elected, even as a bipartisan group of senators called for an investigation.

But, “if you think the Russians did this, then why did they leave fingerprints?” that led the CIA to its conclusion, Bolton questioned.

“We would want to know who else might want to influence the election and why they would leave fingerprints that point to the Russians. That’s why I say until we know more about how the intelligence community came to this conclusion we don’t know whether it is Russian inspired or a false flag.”

 

Meanwhile, moments ago Trump also joined the fray, tweeting “Can you imagine if the election results were the opposite and WE tried to play the Russia/CIA card. It would be called conspiracy theory!”

He followed this by adding “Unless you catch “hackers” in the act, it is very hard to determine who was doing the hacking. Why wasn’t this brought up before election?”

Dec 12 2016

China Flies Nuclear Bomber Above South China Sea In Response To “Ignorant Child” Trump


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 9:17 AM

As reported earlier, China lobbed its diplomatic reaction to Trump’s Sunday interview, in which the President-elect hinted he would use the “One China” policy as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China to extract futures trade concessions.

China responded and expressed “serious concern”, warning Donald Trump that the two countries will have “nothing to discuss” if the US president-elect’s incoming administration decides to discard the four-decade old “One China” policy.

“Adherence to the One China policy is the political bedrock for development of [bilateral] relations,” Geng Shuang, a foreign ministry spokesman, said on Monday. If it is compromised or disrupted, the sound and steady growth of the China-U.S. relationship as well as bilateral cooperation in major fields would be out of the question.”

“We urge the new [US] leadership to recognise the sensitivity of the Taiwan question and to deal with it in a prudent manner,” Geng added. “Upholding the One China policy was America’s promise and we want them to fulfil this promise.”

As China’s CCTV tweeted, a sampling of the Chinese popular reaction to Trump’s comments was less than enthusiastic.

However, realizing that for Trump it may need to escalate beyond mere words, shortly prior to today’s latest escalation, China flew a long-range nuclear-capable bomber outside China for the first time since President-elect Donald Trump spoke with the president of Taiwan, two US officials told Fox News. The dramatic show of force was meant to send a message to the new administration, according to the officials. It marks the second time Beijing flew bombers in the region since Trump was elected.

The Chinese H-6 bomber flew along the disputed “Nine-Dash line” Thursday, which surrounds the South China Sea and dozens of disputed Chinese islands, many claimed by other countries in the region.

The Pentagon was alerted to the Chinese flight Friday. It was the first long-range flight of a Chinese bomber along the U-shaped line of demarcation since March 2015, according to the officials.  Over the summer, Chinese bombers flew over the South China Sea and the contested islands, but they did not fly nearly as far as this one, the officials said.

At various points in recent long-range flights, Chinese fighter jets provided escorts to the single Chinese bomber.

In recent days, U.S. intelligence satellites have spotted components for the Chinese version of the SA-21 surface-to-air missile system at the port of Jieyang, in southeast China, where officials say China has made similar military shipments in the past to its islands in the South China Sea.

Just as concerning for the Pentagon, China has been seen by American intelligence satellites preparing to ship more advanced surface-to-air missiles to its contested islands in the South China Sea.

 In February, Fox News first reported that China had deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system, the HQ-9, to Woody Island, a contested island in the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea, also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

The HQ-9 is based on the Russian S-300 missile system and has a range of roughly 125 miles.

The Chinese SA-21 system, based on the more advanced Russian S-400, is a more capable missile system than the HQ-9.

It wasn’t just military posturing however: having largely ignored Trump’s verbal outbursts so far, today Chinese state media went on the offensive after Trump’s latest remarks, slamming the US president-elect for being “as ignorant as a child in terms of foreign policy” the SCMP reported.

Beijing added it would have no reason to “put peace above using force to take back Taiwan” if Trump abandoned the policy, which recognises Taiwan as part of China, stated the editorial in the Global Times, which is published by the People’s Daily.

And with these two responses, China has almost certainly assured further escalation from Trump, who is not known for leaving a heated back-and-forth such as this one, especially with such a prominent opponent, without getting some benefit from the exchange and without being able to claim the upper hand, especially coming from the position as leader of the world’s most powerful nation.

Dec 12 2016

Eurozone Day Of Reckoning Coming Soon: Showdown Between Italy And Germany Looms


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 8:56 AM

Submitted by Michale Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The eurozone cannot survive without Italy. The serious problem at the moment is the Eurozone also cannot survive with Italy.

Two of Italy’s three largest parties are anti-Euro. The only party in Italy that does support the euro is ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party. And with Renzi gone, there’s a huge risk the party splinters.

Regardless, there are no likely scenarios that can keep things from flying apart according Wolfgang Münchau. I believe his analysis is solid.

one-day

Münchau makes a detailed case why the eurozone is doomed in Italy Poses a Huge Threat to the Euro and Union.

He lists five ways the Eurozone can stay intact. However, none of them stands up to close scrutiny.

  1. Italy and Germany could converge. To do this, Italy would need to undertake economic reforms to clean up the justice system and the public administration, cut taxes and invest in productivity-increasing technologies. Germany would need to run a higher fiscal deficit.
  2. The northern European states accept large fiscal transfers to the south.
  3. The EU creates a federal political authority with powers to raise taxes in order to transfer income from high to low-income earners.
  4. The ECB finds a way to bankroll Italian public and private debt indefinitely.
  5. Italy’s government will forever continue to support euro membership.

“Only one of those five conditions may be sufficient for Italy to remain a member of the euro. The problem is that each one is extremely improbable. And I cannot think of a sixth one,” says Münchau.

However, the consensus opinion is that Italy will not leave the Eurozone because the deck is stacked against that event.

The Italy won’t leave rationale looks like this:

  • The Five Star Movement (M5S) would have to get into power, but the new technocrat government’s first mission is to rig the rules so that does not happen.
  • Even if M5S wins the lower parliament, it still may not control the senate.
  • Even if M5S takes complete control of parliament, it would have to change the constitution.
  • Changing the constitution without a super majority would require a vote.

The problem with the above thesis is there is only one party that wants to keep the Euro and coalitions will form if for no other reason than people are fed up.

Showdown with Germany

According to Münchau

 The next Italian prime minister will need to explain to the next German chancellor, presumably Angela Merkel, that her choice will not be between a political union or no political union, but between a political union or Italy’s withdrawal from the euro.

Would it even be Merkel’s choice to make? I think not, it would take a German constitutional change. And nNot only would Germany have to go along, so would every other nation in the Eurozone.

German politicians would not agree, and even if they would, it’s likely Italy would never present the demand, at least as implied above.

Italy will simply hold a referendum. That would be the demand. By then it would likely be too late.

Biggest Default in History

 The latter would imply the biggest default in history. The German banking system would be in danger of collapsing, and Europe’s biggest economy would lose all the competitiveness gains so painstakingly accumulated over the past 15 years.

It has been the historic failure of consecutive Italian prime ministers to avoid this necessary confrontation, and to think that staying off the radar screen constitutes a viable strategy.

What about point number 5?

I addressed that long ago, and I am still waiting the inevitable.

Let’s flashback to November 23, 2011, to my statement Eventually, Will Come a Time When ….

  Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the “bail out” debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.
Dec 12 2016

Lockheed Martin Tumbles After Trump Tweets On “Out Of Control” F-35 Costs


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 8:36 AM

After running up dramatically post-Trump’s victory, Lockheed Martin shares are tumbling again this morning after the president-elect tweeted, questioning the costs of the company’s F-35…

The reaction was a swift 3% plunge in the share price…

In Feb., Lockheed Martin said in a filing that “The F-35 program is our largest program, generating 20% of our total consolidated net sales, as well as 59% of Aeronautics’ net sales in 2015”

The tweet appears to have come in response to this story exposing “The Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program”… (via ABC)

  U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter was visiting Israel Monday as it prepared to receive the first two next-generation F-35 fighter jets that will help preserve the country’s military edge in the volatile Mideast.

The F-35 is the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program, with an estimated cost of nearly $400 billion. Israel is among a small number of allies to get the plane.

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said the fighter jets “present another component in maintaining air superiority in our region” and expressed gratitude to Carter, who was welcomed with a military honor guard at a Tel Aviv army base.

The jets were supposed to touch down in Israel in the early afternoon, but the Israeli military said their arrival was delayed due to weather conditions in Italy. Neither U.S. nor Israeli officials provided further details.

First Boeing, now Lockheed Martin… Raytheon next? Maybe the swamp of wasting taxpayer money is being cleaned up after all?

Dec 12 2016

KOMMONSENTSJANE – THE ANGRY MAN (AND WOMAN)


We the people (all Americans citizens) have had enough withe the progressive liberal socialist agenda we are taking back OUR country like it or not!

kommonsentsjane's avatarkommonsentsjane

December 11, 2016 9:29 AM

The Angry Man–(and Woman)

FROM ONE IRREDEEMABLE, UNREPENTING DEPLORABLE TO (hopefully) ANOTHER–

THIS IS GREAT !

The Angry Man —(and Woman)

For all the interest group pandering that shapes modern American politics, the group that may well have decided the election has come down to the demographic of “The Angry Man.”

The Angry Man is difficult to stereotype. He comes from all economic backgrounds, from dirt-poor to filthy rich. He represents all geographic areas in America , from sophisticated urbanite to rural redneck, Deep South to Yankee North, Left Coast to Eastern Seaboard.

No matter where he’s from, Angry Men share many common traits; they aren’t asking for anything from anyone other than the promise to be able to make their own way on a level playing field. In many cases, they are independent businessmen and employ several people. They pay more than their share of…

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Dec 12 2016

Congress Set to Fund ‘McCarthyesque’ Investigation of Alternative Media?


Possibly the end of free speech!

Dec 12 2016

Frontrunning: December 12


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 7:45 AM
  • Crude Soars as Output Deal Weighs on Bonds; China Shares Tumble (BBG)
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Above 2.5% for First Time in Two Years (WSJ)
  • The New Reality of TV: All Trump, All the Time (NYT)
  • Fed May Struggle to Signal What Comes After December (WSJ)
  • China warns Trump against ignoring its Taiwan interests (Reuters)
  • China’s Stocks, Bonds, Yuan Slump in Unison on Liquidity Concern (BBG)
  • Sovereign funds pulled cash from world markets for third year running (Reuters)
  • Trump Adds To Criticism Of Companies (WSJ)
  • Oil surges to 1 1/2-year high, Fed rate increase looms (Reuters)
  • Iraq to abide by OPEC cut, expects output growth in future (Reuters)
  • It All Went Wrong for Chinese Investors Today (BBG)
  • Senators Balk at Tillerson Before He’s Nominated (BBG)
  • Syrian army in ‘final stages’ of Aleppo offensive (Reuters)
  • London House Prices Are Having Their Worst December in Years (BBG)
  • Small Investors Join China’s Tycoons in Sending Money Abroad (NYT)
  • The Complexity of Inequality (ProSyn)
  • ‘3, 2, 1, Boom’ — Silver-Fixing Allegations Detailed in Private Chats (BBG)
  • China Finds New Fans in Southeast Asia as U.S. Turns Inward (BBG)
  • JPMorgan Traders Back Risky Property Deals as Bank Shows Caution (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– President-elect Donald Trump escalated a fight with the U.S. intelligence community on Sunday by denouncing its findings of Russian meddling in the U.S. election, setting up an extraordinary rupture between a soon-to-be president and his national-security establishment. http://on.wsj.com/2gQau27

– Exxon Mobil Chief Executive Rex Tillerson, the top choice for secretary of state in a Trump administration, faces bipartisan resistance in Congress over his ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ48zS

– Aircraft giant Boeing clinched a deal to sell 80 jetliners to Iran, completing the first major agreement between a U.S. company and the Islamic Republic at the very moment the political winds are changing. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ4hDw

– Islamic State fighters retook the ancient city of Palmyra on Sunday, an embarrassing setback for thousands of Syrian government troops and their Russian allies defending the area after it was captured from the extremists early this year. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ1Ctk

– Hyundai Merchant Marine said Sunday it has reached an agreement to form a cooperative relationship with the world’s largest container-shipping alliance. Under the deal, Hyundai will share surplus capacity and purchase cargo slots with the shipping network, called the 2M Alliance, which is made up of Denmark-based Maersk Line and Switzerland-based Mediterranean Shipping Co. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ0l5E

– Honda Motor has invested an undisclosed sum in GrabTaxi Holdings Pte Ltd, boosting the Singapore ride-hailing firm’s capital so it can fend off Uber Technologies Inc’s widening reach in Southeast Asia. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ0DcP

– A bomb exploded at Cairo’s main Coptic Christian cathedral compound on Sunday, killing at least 25 people and wounding another 49, in the largest attack on a Christian house of worship in Egypt since 2011. http://on.wsj.com/2gQ4c2B

 

FT

– Tesco Bank has issued sequential debit card numbers and exposed customers to cyber crime. This is a practice most banks avoid because it lets hackers remain undetected while working quickly through thousands of accounts, according to rival lenders.

– Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s board is making a last-ditch attempt to raise 5 billion euros by the end of 2016 in a quest to stave off a state bail-out for the world’s oldest surviving lender.

– Boeing and Iran’s national carrier have finalised their $16.6 billion deal for the sale of 80 aircraft to the Islamic Republic’s airlines. The deal marks the first large contract with a US company since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

 

NYT

– Middle-class Chinese are using new technology to move their wealth out of the country and into American investments, from San Francisco to New York. http://nyti.ms/2hknwpl

– Boeing Co announced a $16.6 billion deal on Sunday to sell planes to Iran, which for decades had been economically blacklisted by the United States. The company, instead, chose to emphasize how many jobs the sale would support. http://nyti.ms/2hkeJGR

– Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil’s chief executive and a secretary of state candidate, has a relationship with Russia that could be both a strength and his Achilles’ heel. http://nyti.ms/2gqSmLf

– President-elect Donald Trump, defending his recent phone call with Taiwan’s president, asserted in an interview broadcast on Sunday that the United States was not bound by the ‘One China’ policy, the 44-year diplomatic understanding that underpins America’s relationship with its biggest rival. http://nyti.ms/2gC7Ejy

– A Massachusetts start-up is part of a new wave of efforts in the United States, Europe and Asia to improve battery technologies as consumers demand more from phones and cars. http://nyti.ms/2hetxX3

 

Britain

The Times

– Tata Steel has promised not to take any dividends from its British plants until their profit tops 200 million pounds a year. The company made the pledge last week as part of a plan that will keep the Port Talbot site in south Wales open until at least 2021. It promised no job cuts for five years and to pump £1bn into its plants around Britain over 10 years. http://bit.ly/2gtTxP2

The Guardian

– Sadiq Khan has called on the government to secure proper compensation from Volkswagen for the “dieselgate” scandal, saying the 1.1 million pounds pledged so far was outrageous. The London mayor said the settlement was far too low compared with the 12 billion pound payout achieved by US authorities for the carmaker’s use of sophisticated “defeat devices” to cheat emissions tests. http://bit.ly/2gtPMZL

– Iran said it has finalized a $16.8 billion deal with Boeing to purchase 80 passenger planes from Boeing. IRNA news agency said 50 Boeing 737s and 30 Boeing 777s would be delivered over the next decade, in the biggest agreement to be struck with an American company since the 1979 revolution and US embassy takeover. http://bit.ly/2gtRcDw

The Telegraph

– Big Sofa, a video analytics technology company, is understood to be raising 6 million pounds through a placing and subscription, valuing the business at 10 million pounds, with shares expected to begin trading next week. The company hopes the fundraising will help it expand in the US, which it expects to be one of the largest markets for video analytics. http://bit.ly/2gtTsdW

Sky News

– Twenty-First Century Fox has tabled a takeover bid for Sky, the owner of Sky News. The cash offer values Sky shares at 1075 pence each, which is less the value of any dividends paid subsequently by Sky, putting a valuation on the company of 18.48 billion euros. http://bit.ly/2gtPsdM

– Chris Woodhouse has stepped down as chairman of 3i Group’s Agent Provocateur. The move comes amid an inquiry into “accounting issues” which may relate to statements about the company’s profitability. http://bit.ly/2gtPQbW

The Independent

– Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has stressed Britain’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, days after he was rebuked by Downing Street for accusing the kingdom of being behind “proxy wars”. http://ind.pn/2gtVfzG

Dec 12 2016

Trump Officially Nominates Retired Marine General John Kelly As Homeland Security Secretary


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 7:47 AM

This morning Trump has confirmed his intention to nominate retired Marine General John Kelly to head the Department of Homeland Security, a pick that had been rumored for days.  In a statement, Trump highlighted Kelly’s experience in defending the homeland from threats of terrorism and said that he was the right person to “spearhead the urgent mission of stopping illegal immigration and securing our borders.”

  “Gen. John Kelly’s decades of military service and deep commitment to fighting the threat of terrorism inside our borders makes him the ideal choice to serve as our Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.”

“He is the right person to spearhead the urgent mission of stopping illegal immigration and securing our borders, streamlining TSA and improving coordination between our intelligence and law enforcement agencies. With Gen. Kelly at the helm of DHS, the American people will have a leader committed to our safety as well as one who will work hand-in-hand with America’s rank-and-file TSA, ICE and Border Patrol officers.”

Per The Hill, Kelly vowed to “take back sovereignty at our borders and put a stop to political correctness.”

 “The American people voted in this election to stop terrorism, take back sovereignty at our borders, and put a stop to political correctness that for too long has dictated our approach to national security,” Kelly said in a statement. “I will tackle those issues with a seriousness of purpose and a deep respect for our laws and Constitution.”

JOhn Kelly

 Before retiring last winter, Kelly served as the head of U.S. Southern Command, where, among other things, he oversaw Guantánamo Bay.  According to The Hill, Kelly built a reputation as a blunt critic of the Obama administration and was often accused to taking actions intended to obstruct the administration’s efforts to close Guantánamo.  John Kelly’s son, Robert, was killed in combat in Afghanistan.

Immigration hard-liners had been routing for Trump to appoint Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach as head of the Department of Homeland Security.  Kobach was generally viewed as the candidate most likely to draw the hardest line on illegal immigration after helping to draft one of the toughest pieces of immigration law in the country, Arizona’s SB 1070, which requires law enforcement officers to demand to see the immigration papers of anyone they suspected of being in the country illegally.

By choosing Marine General John Kelly, immigration experts fear that the Trump administration will focus more on border security, as it relates to terrorist threats, but will not emphasize the deportation of the millions of illegal citizens already in the country.

Still others, including the ever skeptical New York Magazine, view Kelly simply as a “Trojan Horse” who has a better chance at Senate Confirmation for the top DHS position but will then use that role to appoint an immigration hard-liner, like Kobach, to the Deputy Secretary position.

 Perhaps most important, Kelly is not Kris Kobach, the fiery crusader against immigration “amnesty,” alleged voter fraud, and nefarious Muslim plots to rob Americans of their priceless heritage of freedom. The name of the Kansas secretary of State, who is a big-time national celebrity among hard-core conservatives, had often been mentioned in connection with the DHS gig.

But before anyone starts celebrating over Kobach’s continued confinement in Topeka, it might be wise to pay attention to some intel the Washington Examiner provided earlier this week:

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and retired Marine Gen. John Kelly are likely to be tapped for secretary and deputy secretary of homeland security, according to a top transition official familiar with the president-elect’s current thinking, but the source would not reveal which of the two men is favored for the top post and which is likely to be deputy secretary.

If that is correct, it is entirely possible Team Trump decided to make the less controversial Kelly — who faces a much easier Senate confirmation — the figurehead at the top of DHS, while installing Kobach as his deputy with special responsibilities for immigration and anti-terrorism policy. And there is also the option of placing Kobach at the Justice Department with authority over enforcement of immigration and voting laws. Crediting the upcoming administration with a “moderate” cabinet appointment might be accurate but also misleading.

With one more pick officially on the record, all eyes turn to the Secretary of State position.

Dec 12 2016

China Hits Back: Warns Trump “Nothing To Discuss” If “One China” Policy Ends


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by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge Dec 12, 2016 7:22 AM

On Sunday morning, Trump reignited the diplomatic spat with China when during an interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday the President-elect said that his support for the “One China” policy which has underpinned U.S. behavior toward Taiwan since the 1970s,  will hinge on cutting a better deal on trade, in other words it will be a “barter chip” to extract future concessions from Beijing.

“I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.”

As the FT noted, Trump’s remarks dramatically raised the stakes with Beijing just a week after he broke diplomatic precedent by accepting a phone call from Taiwan’s leader, Tsai Ying-wen. Both incidents have tested the Chinese government’s diplomatic patience.

Predictably, overnight China responded and expressed “serious concern” on Monday after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said the United States did not necessarily have to stick to its long-held stance that Taiwan is part of “one China”, calling it the basis for relations. Beijing warned Donald Trump that the two countries will have “nothing to discuss” if the US president-elect’s incoming administration decides to discard the four-decade old “One China” policy.

“Adherence to the One China policy is the political bedrock for development of [bilateral] relations,” Geng Shuang, a foreign ministry spokesman, said on Monday. If it is compromised or disrupted, the sound and steady growth of the China-U.S. relationship as well as bilateral cooperation in major fields would be out of the question.”

He added that “the China-U.S. relationship has global and strategic significance. This not only concerns the happiness of both countries and their people, it concerns the peace, stability, development and prosperity of the Asia Pacific (region) and internationally.”

“We urge the new [US] leadership to recognise the sensitivity of the Taiwan question and to deal with it in a prudent manner,” Geng added. “Upholding the One China policy was America’s promise and we want them to fulfil this promise.”

The statement is a marked escalation by China. Beijing policymakers initially had a more subdued response after Trump departed from diplomatic convention earlier this month and spoke by phone with Taiwan’s president. Now things are getting more serious: the official Xinhua News Agency warned that world peace hinges on close and friendly ties between the U.S. and China.

“For China, there is no balancing of trade and Taiwan,” said Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS AG in Hong Kong. “Taiwan is considered the utmost core interest of China, not for bargaining.”

Earlier on Monday, a stinging editorial in the Global Times, offshoot of the official People’s Daily, urged Mr Trump to “listen clearly, the One China policy cannot be traded”. “China needs to wage resolute struggle against [Mr Trump],” it added, warning the president-elect that China “cannot be bullied easily”.

Last week the Chinese government lodged an official protest over the call with Ms Tsai but was otherwise restrained, urging the incoming administration to respect principles that have guided Sino-US relations since diplomatic ties were formally re-established in 1979.

As a result of the growing diplomatic confronation, Chinese markets were hit with the Shanghai Composite Index sinking 2.5% on Monday, the yuan fell toward an eight-year low and Chinese government bonds tumbled. Analysts cited Trump’s comments on the One-China policy amonga long list of reasons for the selloff. Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex index slipped 0.5% on Monday.

“The fundamental assumption in Sino-US bilateral relations has always been that there can be tensions, there can be friction, but no one makes a sudden move,” said Yanmei Xie at Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy. “Right now that paradigm is in doubt.”

In his remarks on Sunday, Trump suggested the One China policy could in fact be treated as a bargaining chip, rather than as the bedrock of relations between the world’s two largest economies, however China disagrees.  The Global Times warned of severe consequences if the incoming US administration dispensed with the one China policy. In that case, the paper asked, “why should the Chinese government prioritise ‘peaceful reunification’ [with Taiwan] over ‘reunification by force’?”

Quoted by the FT, Shen Dingli, professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said “Trump’s position is you can trade anything”, adding that the One China policy was often ambiguous. “We keep open trade ties with Taiwan even though we don’t recognise them and even though the US sells arms to them.”

According to Mr Trump, “other things” could include currency policy, Beijing’s military build-up in the South China Sea and improved co-operation in containing North Korea.

“Look, we’re being hurt very badly by China with [currency] devaluation, with taxing us heavy at the borders when we don’t tax them, and building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea,” Trump said. “And frankly, they’re not helping us at all with North Korea.”

China’s currency, the renminbi, strengthened by 30% against the dollar in the decade to 2014, but has since lost about 15 per cent of its value against the greenback. Ironically, instead of actively devaluing its currency as Trump claims, in recent years the PBOC has been propping up the renminbi’s value to prevent an accelerate in capital outflows from China.