Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Posted Jul 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong is there any way we can not have inflation. If so how? If not what would you say 5% or more?
S
ANSWER: It all depends on your definition. The type of inflation coming is more STAGFLATIONwhere prices rise due to cost-push (shortages) but there is a declining economic growth. The more familiar inflation is a DEMAND lead event because the economy is booming. Because governments are desperate for money, they keep raising taxes and are increasing enforcement. This trend is DELATIONARY for it reduces disposable income. The INFLATIONARY pressure comes from the rising costs which are set in motion by raising taxes.
Then we add the impact of the climate chaos creating shortages in food and that furthers cost-push inflation. The end result will be the shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE where people will run away from government debt on all levels and move to tangible assets to survive.
President Trump Remarks During Oval Office Swearing-In Ceremony – Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper…
July 23, 2019
This evening President Trump delivered remarks during the swearing-in ceremony for newly appointed Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper. [Video and Transcript] The Senate voted 90-to-8 easily confirming Secretary Esper.
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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. We have a very important moment in our country’s history, actually. And we had a lot of our great Republican senators in the White House, and I invited them over and many of them wanted to be here. And as you probably heard, the vote just took place, and it was 90 to 8. That’s a vote that we’re not accustomed to, Mark, I have to say that. So congratulations, that’s great.
But I’m honored to be here today for the swearing-in of our new Secretary of Defense, Mark T. Esper. I especially want to thank Justice Samuel Alito — highly respected and a great gentleman, a great man — for joining us to administer the Oath of Office. Thank you very much. Thank you, Sam.
We’re also delighted to welcome several of Secretary Esper’s family members and friends to the White House today, including his mother, Polly. Hi, Polly. (Laughter.) Boy, are you proud of him, Polly? You better believe it. Yeah. (Laughter.) His wife, Leah. Thank you, Leah, very much. And his three children — Luke, John, and Kathryn. Thank you very much. Congratulations, too, most importantly. Congratulations. That’s an incredible thing.
There is no one more qualified to lead the Department of Defense than Mark Esper. A West Point graduate — great student, actually — Secretary Esper served our military for 21 years, including in the Gulf War. He also advanced U.S. national security in government and in private sector, most recently as Secretary of the Army, where he played a critical role training and equipping our armed forces. That’s where I got to know Mark. And there was nobody that did a better job than Mark and there’s nobody that loves it more than Mark. And thank you very much.
He is a recipient of the Bronze Star and Combat Infantryman Badge. He holds a doctorate in public policy from George Washington University and a master of public administration degree from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
I am confident that he will be an outstanding Secretary of Defense. I have absolutely no doubt about it. He is outstanding in every way. And we’re honored to have you aboard. And I would ask Justice Alito, please, to administer the Oath of Office. Thank you. Thank you, Judge.
(The oath is administered.) (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: Would you like to say something?
SECRETARY ESPER: Yes, sir, if I may.
THE PRESIDENT: Please.
SECRETARY ESPER: Well, thank you, Mr. President, for your kind words, for your confidence in me, and for this incredible opportunity. And thank you, Justice Alito, for administering the Oath of Office. I really appreciate you being here this afternoon.
I’d also like to Senate — to thank the Senate Armed Services Committee for its quick action on my nomination and for the strong bipartisan support that I received today from the entire United States Senate.
It is an honor of a lifetime to be appointed Secretary of Defense and to lead the greatest military in history. And I will do so with that same energy and commitment to duty, honor, and country that I have for nearly four decades since my early days at West Point.
Mr. President, it is a privilege for me and for my family to be here with you today. Thank you for your leadership and for your commitment to a strong national defense and to all of our service members. Our military has made tremendous gains in recent years thanks to your leadership and we stand ready today to take on any challenge.
And while our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines stand guard each and every day, we will ensure their families are well taken care of.
On a personal note, I would like to thank my wife, Leah, who has been by my side now for 30 years as a military spouse herself; my children, Luke, John, and Kate; my mother, Polly; my in-laws, Tom and Von; and my sisters who join me here today. And everybody else who has been a steadfast supporter of me over the years.
Again, thank you, Mr. President, for allowing me to serve our great country once again, as Secretary of Defense. Thank you, sir. (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Mark. Congratulations.
SECRETARY ESPER: Thank you.
THE PRESIDENT: Fantastic. Proud of you. Come on over here.
SECRETARY ESPER: Okay. Leah?
(A certificate is presented.)
THE PRESIDENT: He’s going to be a great one. Thank you very much.
The Real Adam Smith: Ideas That Changed The World – Full Video
Published on Mar 28, 2016
Milton Friedman Speaks – Myths That Conceal Reality
Published on Jul 31, 2012
Why Hedge Funds Have Missed the Moves
Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones
Re-Posted Jul 23, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Well, Ray Dalio was short the market, missed the rally, and lost almost 5% for the first half of the year. Obviously, they don’t use Socrates – lol.
LB
REPLY: I do not advise Bridgewater and I have no idea if they even subscribe to Socrates. But what you have to realize is that a lot of these hedge funds form their strategy based upon opinion for the broader view. When you have a portfolio of that size, you cannot simply trade it back and forth for each move. The question becomes critical as to where to draw the line to realize your broadview strategy is wrong.
I have stated many times that the trend does NOT begin to shift until you reach the Monthly Level. We saw that in Gold when it finally got through 1362.50 after nearly four years of bouncing off that number. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrials, our hedging models for institutions were long one month from the low and has remained in that position. This is just a hedging model which is either long or short. It at least tends to keep institutions on the right side of the trend for long periods of time.
Aside from the Reversal System, the Energy Model is extremely helpful in identifying the position of the market and if there is a risk of a crash or a rally. The Energy Model turned negative, demonstrating that there was no possibility of a crash as most analysts were forecasting from a gut perspective. A crash would have been possible ONLY if the Energy Model was at a peak. When it is testing the lows or a negative, it is warning that the energy in the market has already dissipated.
We are simply headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle where the majority of people will never be able to forecast what will unfold from a personal gut perspective. This is not a time for lucky calls. We need objective time-tested analysis that is not clouded by human bias. This is when we need the global approach to let Socrates simply correlate the world to enable us to see the real trends that are in motion. The worst thing you can do is ASSUME you have missed something, as that is typically the kiss of death for investors where they inevitably buy the high or sell the low.
Are the Neo-Cons in League with Israel?
Armstrong Ecomics Blog/Middle East
Re-Posted Jul 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Do you think the neo-cons who pushed the Iraq War and are pushing to annihilate Iran now, are covertly in league with Israel?
Anonymous
ANSWER: There is an agenda among the neo-cons who WRONGLY believe that overturning various Arab governments and installing democratic systems will protect Israel. I disagree with that philosophy and I believe that they have manipulated the US government into a dangerous agenda. This is why they have been against Trump because he does not want to send American soldiers to the Middle East for an agenda that offers no benefit to the United States whatsoever.
Yes, people speculate that the Israel government is covertly behind the neo-cons, whereas many Israeli people just want peace. I have not seen any direct evidence of that. I do know some of these neo-cons and have had face to face discussions with them over the years. I believe they are seriously wrong and have placed the world into a state of high risk. Their policies have polarized the relationships between the USA and Russia, which is not in the interest of world peace. I have stated many times, my view is simply that war no longer remains valid from a historical perspective. It used to be about conquest and empire-building. Today, nobody wants to occupy their opponent. I see no purpose to war economically. but it has come down to nothing more than a schoolyard brawl where people fight simply because they do not like the other person. There is nothing to gain from this nonsense.
Pay Attention Millennials – Bernie Sanders Will Cut Campaign Worker Hours to Achieve $15 Hour Wages…
July 21, 2019
Hopefully the Che’ T-shirt crowd will see the logical outcome to the proposed wage/benefit schemes of the socialist ideologues by watching how Bernie Sanders plans to increase campaign workers pay to $15/hr, by cutting their hours – not actually increasing wages.
After coming under fire for not delivering on his promise to pay campaign workers $15/hr, communist Bernie has a solution: Cut their hours. Then workers will be forced to get another job.
Perhaps, just perhaps, democrat voters will notice this was/is the outcome of the Obama economic wage/labor scheme that led to people having to get two and three jobs. An outcome those same democrat candidates openly rail against in talking points.
WASHINGTON – Democrat presidential candidate Bernie Sandersannounced this weekend he will cut staffers’ hours so that they can effectively be paid a $15-an-hour minimum wage, prompting mockery from critics who say the move is more evidence that Sanders’ plan to raise the national minimum wage is hypocritical and would only lead to less work and more unemployment.
The Washington Post first reported last Thursday that Sanders’ field staffers were upset that Sanders championed a $15 minimum wage on the campaign trail, and made headlines for railing against major corporations who pay “starvation wages” — even as his own employees made “poverty wages.” (read more)
Ironically this approach hearkens back to the historic outcome of socialist policy. Capitalist Bernie is rebuking Communist Bernies’ labor talking points.
Additionally, Bernie is including non-compensatory benefits (healthcare etc.) as part of the overall $15/hr compensation package…. Yes, more natural outcomes.
[Bernie] went on to say that the union contract “not only provides pay of at least $15 an hour, it also provides, I think, the best health care benefits that any employer can provide for our field organizers.”
Those healthcare benefits are included in the $36k/yr pay package that belays the $15/hr wage point. 2,000 hrs (40 per week x 50 weeks) worked at $15/hr is $30k, with $6k in benefits. If benefit costs increase to $8k worked hours need to be reduced to keep the $15 standard. A capitalist outcome Communist Bernie has railed against, yet now applies.
Brianne Pfannenstiel✔@brianneDMR
Bernie Sanders says his campaign will limit the hours staffers work so they are paid the equivalent of $15 an hour. “I’m very proud to be the first presidential candidate to recognize a union and negotiate a union contract,” he told me. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/07/19/bernie-sanders-campaign-staff-wage-15-hour-union-elizabeth-warren-campaign-wages/1781159001/ …
Bernie Sanders defends staff compensation after complaints his campaign isn’t paying $15 an hour
“It does bother me that people are going outside of the process and going to the media,” Bernie Sanders told the Des Moines Register. “That is really not acceptable.
desmoinesregister.com
neontaster@neontasterThis reminds me of that take about how farmers in the USSR had more vacation time than people in the US now.
The point of raising the minimum wage is that so PEOPLE MAKE MORE MONEY, not make the same amount of money and have 3 days off a week, you dolt. https://twitter.com/not_bullwinkle/status/1152991773070962688 …
Bullwinkle J. Moose@not_bullwinkle
even for neontaster this is staggeringly dumb
is he seriously saying that getting the same amount of money for less work is not a benefit?
there’s more to life than how much you make in a year https://twitter.com/neontaster/status/1152971027930124290 …
The Media Protecting Ilhan Omar’s Obviously False Presentation of Family is a Gift To President Trump…
July 18, 2019
The 2019 U.S. media are akin to the Monty Python “killer rabbit” skit, as every broadcast and print publication runs away from anything that might be adverse to their political interests. Oh noes, run away… run away… Yes, at this point it really is comical.
An armed Antifa terrorist can attempt to use home-made bombs to attack an ICE detention center, get killed in the process, and leave behind a manifesto that actually quotes Democrat Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as his motive to stop the “concentration camps”, and the media flee from coverage…. “run away“. Meanwhile the world comes to an end over a Trump tweet with apoplectic wall-to-wall coverage.
The entire landscape of 2019 media is a skit beyond mocking; thus the transparently false story behind the life of Hamasketeer #2, lhan Omar, is yet another visible part of this ridiculous pantomime. It is obvious the story of Omar’s husbro marriage was intended to manipulate the refugee visa program to the benefit of her brother. However, now it surfaces that Omar isn’t even a member of the refugee family she used to escape Somalia:
Steinberg Research Article Here
…’I am legally married to one and culturally to another’… (link)
Representative Ilhan Omar’s visa manipulation by faux-marriage is a process similar to the visa-fraud process used in the San Bernadino terror case involving Syed/Tashfeen Malik, and faux-marriage Tatiana Farook. [Same with Orlando Pulse nightclub terror case involving Omar Mateen and Noor Salman.]
The longer the mainstream media tries to run away from the obvious truth behind the Ilhan Omar refugee/visa scam, the more ridiculous they look doing so.
The UK Daily Mail has already outlined the fraud [SEE HERE], the Star Tribune has already outlined the fraud [SEE HERE], and a host of other research, including documents to evidence the fraud has been brought to light; just like the Powerline Article.
At this point, the media’s refusal to admit Ilhan Omar lied to escape Somalia; and then lied again -via marriage- to get an entry visa for her brother, while being married to another man, just makes the media look even more political and more manipulative.
The end result, this helps frame the truthfulness behind the term “Fake News”.
~ The Hamasketeers ~
Agricultural Loans Declining Right on Target
Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture
Re-Posted Jul 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
One of the most fascinating observations I have made over my career has been that the banks always lend at the top and contract lending at the bottom in every market. Going into 1980, banks were calling me to ask if I wanted to borrow money. Recently, I got a phone call from my bank asking, once again, if I would be interested in a loan. This to me is merely a confirmation that we are approaching a major turning point.
When I look at lending into the agricultural sector, the big Wall Street banks are once again perfectly in line with the cycle. They peaked in loans to farmers back in 2015, and have been declining ever since going into 2020. Bank lending to the agricultural sector peaked with the ECM and we will see it bottom in 2020. Our model will be correct in forecasting the next wave, which will be a cost-push inflationary wave. As the agricultural sectors come back to life, thanks to shortages, then the bankers will be willing to lend once again. The banks are the PERFECT indicator of how not to run a business. They make decisions emotionally and always get the economy dead wrong (i.e mortgage-backed securities peaked in 2007)
Representative Doug Collins Discusses Pelosi’s Clown Show on House Floor…
July 17, 2019
With Nancy Pelosi refusing to take up important legislative issues that need to be resolved: raising the debt ceiling, budget appropriations, USMCA ratification, immigration reform etc; and instead focus on a symbolic parliamentary resolution to criticize tweets, Georgia congressman Doug Collins calls-out the insufferable political games being played.
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Centinel2012 