As widely anticipated the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has voted to release the majority ‘FISA Memo’ as led by Chairman Devin Nunes. According to reports it was a party-line vote. The memo now goes to the executive branch for release approval.
Additionally, the politically constructed counter-memo, led by minority leader Adam Schiff, received a supportive committee vote making it available to the full house of representatives. However, following the same procedural process as before – the Schiff Memo was not approved for public release (via executive branch), until the full house has an opportunity to review it.
Because the Schiff Memo was not released to the public; and because the committee is making Schiff follow the same rules applied to Nunes; and because the content of the approved release is adverse to Democrats corrupt interests; Adam Schiff rushed to the microphones to complain.
Paul Sperry is breaking some news that will generally be lost on most who are not deep in the weeds; however, this news is exceptionally important and explains the back-story to why Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley called the FBI’s bluff.
It is important to understand what Chairman Chuck Grassley has done with the criminal referral and how he is calling out the FBI. Taken at it’s face value, which is what the tweet does, it seems that Christopher Steele lied to the FBI by saying the “dossier” information was not shared with media, therefore the dossier was not opposition campaign research.
The intent of this FBI claim (to the FISA court) is to give the “dossier” enhanced value as source material for a FISA warrant (request for surveillance authority). However, the underlying facts behind the FBI assertion are false; and it’s not Steele making the claim.
The FBI is the entity attempting to inflate the credibility of the application by claiming Steele never shopped the dossier, ergo it is not political opposition research. There is ZERO evidence Steele made any such claim to the FBI. There is ample evidence from the senate testimony of Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS) to the contrary.
Glenn Simpson and Fusion GPS heavily shopped the ‘dossier’ to the media. A big part of that shopping was putting people in contact with Christopher Steele to discuss the underlying content. The same approach was taken to distribute the material to Senator John McCain, who sent his intermediary, David Kramer, to meet with Steele, get briefed, and then pick up a copy from Glenn Simpson.
It is the FBI who lied to the FISA Court in the application. It is the FBI who are claiming in their FISA application the dossier was not ‘shopped’. It is the FBI attempting to enhance the dossier credibility by making statements/claims about what Chris Steele presented to them. It is NOT Christopher Steele making these claims. Christopher Steele knew the ‘dossier’ was being presented to media. Christopher Steele briefed media.
Now can you see the play by Chuck Grassley?
Setting aside factual dossier authorship for a moment [as we all know Hillary Clinton and Fusion GPS, via Nellie Ohr, were the scriptwriters of the dossier content]…. Chairman Chuck Grassley knew the motive to enhance the credibility of the ‘dossier’ was within the FBI, not Christopher Steele. So when the FBI presents the ‘dossier’ to the FISA Court and swears and affirms the story behind it, it is the FBI lying about the underlying source documents.
THAT is why Chuck Grassley took the position to say: OK, well, if the presentation of the dossier, to the FISA court, was as the FBI claims (ie. Steele made promises etc.), then the FBI needs to prosecute Christopher Steele for lying to them about it.
Chuck Grassley knows it’s not Steele lying to the FBI about the dossier origination and back-story, it’s actually the FBI lying to the FISA court. That’s why Grassley called the FBI’s bluff.
In a brilliant move of strategery, Senate Judiciary Chairman, Chuck Grassley, and Senate Judiciary member, Lindsey Graham, send a criminal referral of Christopher Steele to the DOJ for investigation. But things are not what they seem…
Today Senators Grassley and Graham sent a letter of criminal referral to the Department of Justice, based on information -provided by the FBI- their investigation has uncovered.
However, the actual motive for the criminal referral is not exactly what it appears.
Highlighting two pertinent passages (emphasis mine) from the New York Times article will explain what’s really going on:
[…] Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, and Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a senior committee member, told the Justice Department they had reason to believe that a former British spy, Christopher Steele, lied to federal authorities about his contacts with reporters regarding information in the dossier, and they urged the department to investigate. The committee is running one of three congressional investigations into Russian election meddling, and its inquiry has come to focus, in part, on Mr. Steele’s explosive dossier that purported to detail Russia’s interference and the Trump campaign’s complicity.
[…] The criminal referral appears to make no assessment of the veracity of the dossier’s contents, much of which remains unsubstantiated nearly a year after it became public.
[…] Mr. Grassley’s decision to recommend criminal charges appeared likely to be based on reports of Mr. Steele’s meetings with the F.B.I., which were provided to the committee by the Justice Department in recent weeks.
It was not clear why, if a crime is apparent in the F.B.I. reports that were reviewed by the Judiciary Committee, the Justice Department had not moved to charge Mr. Steele already.
The circumstances under which Mr. Steele is alleged to have lied were unclear, as much of the referral was classified. (full article)
Can you see what is really going on here?
The criminal referral is based on FBI reports of meetings the FBI has given to the Senate Judiciary Committee about the FBI meetings with Christopher Steele.
Within those FBI reports (presented to the committee) are conflicting statements and accounts that do not align with known evidence.
The FBI is attributing claims to the meetings with Christopher Steele that do not match known evidence about the Steele Dossier and use therein.
Remember what Senator Graham said recently about his review of the evidence surrounding the Steele Dossier and how it was used, by the FBI in gaining the FISA warrant? –Refresh Memory Here–
What Grassley and Graham are now doing is forcing the DOJ to reconcile the conflicts between the FBI presentations to the judiciary committee -about the origin of, and their use of, the Steele Dossier- against known evidence.
Someone is lying.
Graham and Grassley know the motive to lie about the Steele Dossier does not necessarily belong to Christopher Steele. The motive is within the corrupt FBI.
In order to accurately prove ownership of the the falsehoods Grassley and Graham are saying: ‘If what the FBI says is true then Chris Steele is lying, because the evidence doesn’t support what the FBI previously said to us, and attributed to Christopher Steele’…
Grassley and Graham are calling the bluff of the FBI.
“Based on the information contained therein, we are respectfully referring Mr. Steele to you for investigation of potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001, for statements the Committee has reason to believe Mr. Steele made regarding his distribution of information contained.” (link)
The “information contained therein” is the FBI presentation of statements and evidence the FBI is attributing to Christopher Steele.
By referring a criminal complaint to the DOJ the Senators are, in essence, forcing the DOJ to outline that material presentations by the FBI, to the committee, were false…. OR, that Christopher Steele is lying. The former is likely, the latter not-so-much.
Additionally, by asking Rod Rosenstein (DOJ) and Christopher Wray (FBI) to investigate the conflicting evidence and FBI statements Grassley and Graham are also providing political cover for Rosenstein and Wray to showcase the corruption within both the DOJ and the FBI.
Strategery.
The walls are closing in.
WASHINGTON – Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Terrorism Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) referred the author of the “Trump Dossier,” Christopher Steele, to the Justice Department for investigation of potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 1001 for false statements investigators have reason to believe Steele made about the distribution of claims contained in the dossier.
“I don’t take lightly making a referral for criminal investigation. But, as I would with any credible evidence of a crime unearthed in the course of our investigations, I feel obliged to pass that information along to the Justice Department for appropriate review,” Grassley said. “Everyone needs to follow the law and be truthful in their interactions with the FBI. If the same actions have different outcomes, and those differences seem to correspond to partisan political interests, then the public will naturally suspect that law enforcement decisions are not on the up-and-up. Maybe there is some innocent explanation for the inconsistencies we have seen, but it seems unlikely. In any event, it’s up to the Justice Department to figure that out.”
“After reviewing how Mr. Steele conducted himself in distributing information contained in the dossier and how many stop signs the DOJ ignored in its use of the dossier, I believe that a special counsel needs to review this matter. The rule of Law depends on the government and all who work on its behalf playing by the rules themselves. I hope the Department of Justice will carefully review our letter and take appropriate action,” Graham said.
Yesterday evening, Grassley and Graham delivered to Senate Security a letter and classified memorandum for delivery to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray containing information that forms the basis of the referral.
Under 18 U.S.C. § 1001, individuals are prohibited from making false statements to the federal authorities of the United States. Grassley and Graham are referring Steele for making potentially false statements about the distribution of claims from the dossier. (LINK)
On Sunday night the Justice Department was granted access to view the House Intelligence Committee memo known as the ‘Nunes Memo’. In unusual timing, last night FBI Director Christopher Wray went to the secure facility (SCIF) in the basement of the House of Representatives to view the content of the House Intel Committee memo.
Today, the FBI releases an announcement saying Deputy FBI Director Andrew “Andy” McCabe has stepped down (been removed) from his position effective immediately.
Narrative engineers immediately began applying a typical spin to the announcement away from recent discoveries of corrupt behavior of the FBI, and inferring President Trump’s admonishments of Deputy Director McCabe were the impetus for removal.
Via NBC [Andrew McCabe] … served a brief stint as acting director of the bureau after Trump fired ex-FBI chief James Comey, will remain on the payroll until March, when he is eligible to retire with full benefits, NBC said. He had been expected to leave.
Trump and some Republicans in Congress have accused McCabe of political bias, citing his role at the FBI during investigations related to Hillary Clinton and Trump. They question his role in the Clinton email probe and the investigation into Russian efforts to influence the 2016 election and whether the Trump campaign coordinated with the Kremlin.
Trump did not answer when asked by reporters Monday afternoon if he knew about McCabe’s move. (read more)
It is interesting, perhaps important, to note a few things within this latest development and overlay them.
♦First, in February of 2017we drew attention to a story of how Deputy Director Andrew McCabe approached then chief-of-staff Reince Priebus to state that the FBI saw no evidence of any Trump-Russia collusion, and the reports within media about leaks from the intelligence community toward that narrative were based on nothing.
Priebus asked if the FBI could then knock down all of these media reports by issuing a statement outlining the same. After some quick communication with FBI Director Comey, Deputy Director McCabe responded back to Priebus saying no, the FBI couldn’t issue that statement.
Within a day CNN was reporting that Reince Priebus tried to “pressure” Andrew McCabe and James Comey. Obviously that story to CNN came directly from McCabe and/or Comey. This example of FBI leaking to media (in 2017) is contained within a book that was just mentioned yesterday.
♦Secondly, it is not coincidental that now the Justice Department has had an opportunity to preview the Nunes memo content, we begin seeing leaks about it in the New York Times.
The Black Hat operatives within the DOJ and FBI are desperate to get out ahead of the stories.
Think about it. The Nunes memo was available to congress for over a week, and not a single -substantive- material leak came out. Yet, within HOURS of the Justice Department having access to the memo, the New York Times is writing about specific details contained within the memo:
WASHINGTON — A secret, highly contentious Republican memo reveals that Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein approved an application to extend surveillance of a former Trump campaign associate shortly after taking office last spring, according to three people familiar with it.
The renewal shows that the Justice Department under President Trump saw reason to believe that the associate, Carter Page, was acting as a Russian agent. But the reference to Mr. Rosenstein’s actions in the memo — a much-disputed document that paints the investigation into Russian election meddling as tainted from the start — indicates that Republicans may be moving to seize on his role as they seek to undermine the inquiry.
The memo’s primary contention is that F.B.I. and Justice Department officials failed to adequately explain to an intelligence court judge in initially seeking a warrant for surveillance of Mr. Page that they were relying in part on research by an investigator, Christopher Steele, that had been financed by the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. (read more)
Imagine that despite your always knowing the DC swamp was deep (dangerous and full of terrors), corrupt, and generally horrible, you decided to do it anyway. You “just had to”.
Imagine you have spent years thinking about it; thinking about every angle within it; thinking and talking to people who know almost everything about it, well, from their perspective anyway; and ultimately you decided to do it.
Imagine that even though you knew it was bad, it wasn’t until you actually began running that you discovered the depth of the corrupt nature with it. –SEE HERE– You see things in the campaign you never expected; things no-one ever talked about.
One of the most alarming aspects of the *new knowledge* is discovering that the top-tier of the national intelligence apparatus has a political agenda you never thought about before.
Imagine yourself, a very successful business person, coming to the realization that the intelligence apparatus could, indeed was, weaponized against you. You fall back on your past experience with hostile organizations as your reference point having to contemplate that parts of the United States Government institutions would likely begin to conspire against you.
Imagine yourself having to deal with a weaponized intelligence community. Then, as time progresses, you begin to see those concerns are not imaginings – but they actually begin to surface.
Re-read this October 2016 speech with ‘new eyes’:
[…] For those who control the levers of power in Washington, and for the global special interests they partner with, our campaign represents an existential threat.
[…] This is not simply another 4-year election. This is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not We The People reclaim control over our government.
The political establishment that is trying everything to stop us, is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration, and economic and foreign policies that have bled this country dry. The political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories and our jobs, as they flee to Mexico, China and other countries throughout the world. Our just-announced jobs numbers are anemic, and our gross domestic product, or GDP, is barely above one percent. Workers in the United States, were making less than they were almost 20 years ago – and yet they are working harder.
It’s a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities.
[…] This is a struggle for the survival of our nation. This election will determine whether we are a free nation, or whether we have only the illusion of Democracy but are in fact controlled by a small handful of global special interests rigging the system.
This is not just conspiracy but reality, and you and I know it.
[…] They control the Department of Justice, and they even clandestinely meet with the Attorney General of the United States – in the back of her airplane, while on the runway – for 39 minutes – to most likely discuss her reappointment in a Clinton Administration just prior to the Attorney General making a decision over whether or not to prosecute Hillary Clinton.
Likewise, they have corrupted the Director of the FBI to the point at which stories are already saying the great men and women who work for the FBI are embarrassed and ashamed to what he’s done to one of our great institutions. Hillary Clinton is guilty of all of the things that Director Comey stated at his press conference and Congressional hearings, and far more – and yet he let her off the hook, while others lives are being destroyed for far less.
This is a conspiracy against you, the American people. (link)
Knowing what you know now, those words from October 13th, 2016, rally in West Palm Beach Florida most certainly hold a different resonance today, no?
Who can anyone turn to when the very institutions created to preserve liberty are intentionally utilized to eliminate the most basic of liberties: the right to choose our own government.
Imagine you are a candidate for the office of the presidency and you realize your political campaign is a very real existential threat to the system. As you begin to accept this reality you have to think entirely different now.
These people are political enemies.
As troubling as it is to accept, you have to face the reality of a weaponized intelligence community aligned against you; and a professional political class who will deny it exists.
The system, including the media, are now in synergy to eliminate the threat you represent.
Imagine, as time goes on, you realize this weaponized system is not going to go away. You begin to think about how to work around it, from your only reference points in dealing with hostile institutions. Approaches you know from business experience, become references.
Thankfully, you have a man, an intelligence officer, General Mike Flynn, who can rightly explain the capability of the intelligence apparatus. Yet even he cannot adequately describe how it is weaponized. Imagine yourself having to deal with this issue.
You are running for the Presidency, yet you have to accept a complete and incomprehensible inability to trust the U.S. intelligence community. You realize that, absent of your ability to coax individuals to change behavior inside the organization, it may be entirely necessary to build a parallel system that you can trust.
The nomination was tough, but you won.
It is within the general election when you really discover the scale of political alignment referenced as the ‘Deep Administrative State’.
Somehow, through grit, work and a relentless effort – your campaign overcomes many obstacles and a key part of the electorate are sharp enough to understand the bigger issues.
You win the election.
But as people celebrate around you, you know this is not the summit.
When dawn breaks, November 9th, 2016, everyone will begin to see what you already know; the summit is still a long way off. Those adverse interests are not going to accept the disruption. Well, not willingly anyway.
As everyone else cheers, maybe you don’t quite enjoy the same victory because you sense what is to come…
Then, at a critical juncture, a key player within the established system, who is not OK with what’s going on, comes to you and confirms your worst suspicions. –SEE HERE–
The apparatus of the IC is weaponized against you; and it’s worse than you thought.
However, despite the sheer scale of the opposition, and the people aligned against you, you have won the election – and thankfully that same key internal *whistle-blower* has a plan.
He too has been thinking.
Imagine the broad outline of a parallel intelligence system. A system that might only be temporary in nature, but feasibly could be trusted. A system that might overcome the challenge inherent from the domestic enemies embedded inside the current one.
While a politically weaponized intelligence apparatus is targeting/watching you… perhaps your parallel system might just be able to watch the watchers.
If you can imagine such a system, you’ll note the needs: established infrastructure close to completion, or at least in a solid phase of current utility. A safe system, a reasonable distance away from the threat; held and operated by people who have, or would have, a self-interest -a motive- to help you. Also a human intelligence network, contacts with people -who know people- and must also have ability to operate the parallel system.
Normal allies, at least the historic perspective of ‘allies’ as known to us outside the system, could not be used. The “Five Eyes” intelligence allies would be useless, because the embedded IC opposition would quickly discover the networking. They are, after all, an international intelligence community; and share a generally common ideology.
No, you would need a ‘new’ system.
Something outside current systems, yet mirroring the technological capability.
And all of this must take place in such a fashion as no-one would ever suspect it taking place. Yet, you don’t want to hide it, because that’s ultimately the easiest way for the adverse IC enemy to discover it.
That’s what you’d need.
Now, consider:
I know, it’s a mind-blowing exercise to fathom…. but why not?
As we consider this, basic frames of reference are questioned. Do your own work, your own analysis, apply your own reasoned logic. You, we, all of us, have all just recently began to understand the scale of the corruption within the U.S. intelligence apparatus, specifically the DOJ and FBI.
What if we had known it back in November of 2016?
How would we understand all of the intelligence events from November 2016 though today if we knew the scale of the Justice Department weaponization, back then. We have the benefit of hindsight to overlay against current events.
Do not trust me, nor expect me to convince you. Something about this has just struck me as deliberate for over eight months – for multiple reasons. So use your own knowledge, and put down an actual or mental timeline back to January 20th, 2017 (Inauguration day), and look/think carefully about what transpired. Who visited where, when, and how.
Look at who visits the White House, early on in the administration. Think about what you know of those visits and your reference points. Many citations will follow:
Look at what actions were taken, in the specific area, to secure any adverse entity away from discovering the intent of a possible parallel construct. –SEE HERE– Saudi Arabia Arrests 11 Princes, including Alwaleed.
Look at times and dates when specific people travel to the same specific area:
Understand that a parallel system means creating new alliances. Any entity aligned with the current adversary, or former administration, cannot be trusted. –SEE HERE– Qatar, financial epicenter of the Muslim Brotherhood, ally with the Obama administration, no longer considered a geopolitical ally; and completely isolated amid the Gulf States.
Then we have Canada, Australia and New Zealand, normally friendly allies, being exceptionally combative to an incoming administration –SEE HERE– and adding to the mix, the United Kingdom being more of an ideological adversary than geopolitical ally –SEE HERE– oh, there’s that Five Eyes reference again.
When you begin to question prior assumptions, some overseas visits by administration officials, emissaries or unofficial officials, take on new meaning. Visits seemed random. But maybe not –SEE HERE– Jared Kushner making unannounced visits to Saudi Arabia.
With a new nexus established, things continue for a long time; a very long while. All the while Deep-State Black Hats have absolutely no idea they are being watched.
Perhaps seemingly random or innocuous events take on a different dimension. –SEE HERE– Vice-President Mike Pence Travels to Egypt, Jordan and Israel.
Without context, things just don’t make sense.
The media are perplexed –SEE HERE– Headline: “Mike Pence visit to region serves no purpose“, ie. it doesn’t make sense.
However, with context, things, the timing of things, not only begins to make sense, but changes the entire landscape of what was previously thought. –SEE HERE– House Speaker Paul Ryan, and Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes travel to Saudi Arabia.
That’s Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes innocuously in the background.
While everyone was recently waiting on the memo….
And waiting on the #ReleaseTheMemo…
The history of interactions begins to shape a new understanding:
Maybe, just maybe, the ‘Intelligence Orb’ that everyone enjoyed was real.
Only ‘real’ in a way it just wasn’t thought of before:
Then again, what if the Orb, the new Saudi counter-extremism intelligence hub, is not technically *theirs* after all…
What if that Saudi Intelligence Orb (hub) is actually ours, or at least, maybe, we are leasing and equipping it for use… for a while…
…While our White Hat team (CIA-Pompeo, NSA-Rogers) modified the intel-hub’s operational use, to monitor and catch the Black Hat team.
Although this is simply just a citation of various events, with a rather different take on what they might possibly mean, it could, possibly, change the entire dynamic of what has been happening.
Did you think two years ago that FBI officials would actually be spying on political opposition? Did you fathom a year ago that the FBI, actual agents inside the FBI, might have been intentionally conspiring to help Hillary Clinton escape legal jeopardy?
Did you know the FBI were withholding evidence, lying to courts, using burner phones to communicate; hiring contract agents and giving them access to NSA and FBI counterintelligence databases to conduct domestic political spying operations?
Could you fathom the U.S. Department of Justice and FBI purchasing opposition research from Hillary Clinton, pitching it to FISA Courts as evidence; and working with their allies in the media by leaking information to place intentionally false material within their stories?
Were you previously ever able to imagine people within the Justice Department making demands of congressional oversight to see evidence of their own corruption in advance of accountability? …and the media making out congress as the bad-guy in that dynamic?
No? Don’t feel bad. Me neither.
I mean, seriously?
So my entire set of “reasonable assumptions” is considerably different now and I don’t dismiss possibilities that actually have a basis-in-fact that might explain what has taken place as the other side of the intelligence apparatus fights back against this jaw-dropping intelligence corruption.
We have now reached the point where a pause in the uptrend of the US Share Markets comes into position. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been an elitist out for Trump’s head from the beginning. He was even trying to throw his hat in the ring to be President and took personal offense that an outsider would beat everyone.
He has publicly admitted there is no evidence that Trump colluded with Russia during the campaign. I believe my entire case revolved around the elements in the US government were colluding with the bankers to install a puppet government in Moscow and take over the country. Yeltsin turned to Putin for help and that is how Putin even got in. They would never allow a trial in my case fearing what would surface.
Despite the fact that Graham has admitted that there was no Russia involvement with Trump to rig the election, he has come out and said that Firing Robert Mueller would be the end of the Donald Trump presidency.
Make no mistake about it, Graham and the Democrats want Trump out of office. This is a club and they want to keep it that way. Grahm will help the Democrats accomplish that even if it means turning the elections back to the Democrats in November.
The killer of this Bull Market will be by the hand of people like Lindsey Graham. An IMPEACHMENTproceeding against Trump will see the Panic Cycle hit on an annual basis. This will actually be very bad for the entire world economy because Trump’s Tax Reform has forced other countries to look at how their tax systems are not competitive either. All of that will be reversed and clear this is what the Washington elite want like Lindsey Graham. They are clueless and believe getting rid of Trump will restore their control. What they overlook is the simple fact that Trump won because people have had enough of career politicians who always lie and support the status quo.
In the US Share Market, this is now a turning point we have reached. I have warned for months that exceeding the November high would lead to a January high. Now, the failure of February to make new highs warns of a March low. The support for a correction now lies at the 25637 level on a weekly closing basis (this is not a reversal). We will elaborate today on the Private Blog.
At last, we have entered the middle-ground of analytical thought. Between 2009 and 2017, the majority were bearish calling for the inevitable crash any day now. So after 8,6 years, they have now crossed the Rubicon and we now see there is a general expectation that stocks will keep rising, albeit at a slower pace. The reasons they now have adopted a focus on the Trump Tax Cuts and the odds seem low for a recession this year. They are also touting that economies around the world are finally in sync and starting to grow together, yet that seems to be delusional at best.
Then we have the typical fundamental arguing that should keep profits on the upswing for companies, and stock prices tend to follow the direction of profits. That too is a myth for even Shillerhas admitted that since 1881, the correlation of the past decade’s real earnings growth with the price-earnings ratio is a positive 0.32. But there is zero correlation between his CAPE ratio and the next 10 years’ real earnings growth. He has even stated that real earnings growth per share for the S&P Composite Stock Price Index over the previous 10 years was negatively correlated (-17% since 1881) with real earnings growth over the subsequent 10 years. So the whole earning issue really cannot explain market performance no matter how logical it may sound. Shiller has even conceded that bond markets also fail to correlate to inflation. It is the past the rules the future. He has stated that long-term interest rates tend to be high when the last decade’s inflation was high. He has pointed out that the US long-term 10-year bond yields are highly positively correlated (70% since 1913) with the previous 10 years’ inflation. However, he notes that any correlation between the Treasury yield and the inflation rate over the next 10 years is only 28%.
Shiller has concluded that he cannot figure the market out: “The truth is that it is impossible to pin down the full cause of the high price of the US stock market. The lack of any clear justification for its high CAPE ratio should remind all investors of the importance of diversification, and that the overall US stock market should not be given too much weight in a portfolio.”
Of course, diversification is the uneducated way to invest. It is admitting you cannot forecast so the best way is to spread out your bets. You can see the results of diversification strategies at any casino’s roulette wheel. People will bet on many numbers staggering their wagers between them hoping to catch the number with the biggest bet and hedging it with smaller bets on a variety of numbers. Investment diversification is the same. They do not know which market will perform best so they spread their bets around hoping for the best. They guarantee to take some losses in hopes of a reasonable win.
Yet, there is a growing consensus that the market is going up and they really do not know why so they are punting out theories. They still are touting risks that they see lying ahead. One concern centers on just how long and strong this bull market has been. Since the rally began from the 2009 low, they say that stocks have become more expensive than they’ve historically been, relative to corporate profits. Yet Shiller has conceded that does not produce a winning correlation. We passed the entire length of the bull market during the Roaring ’20s, which was 97 months last April 2017. This scares many as they keep talking about value.
Many warn that an unexpected spike in inflation can kill the bull market, although I totally miss this logic. They obviously do not understand the three different types of inflation. They look at the past deflation and low-interest rates and then assume the market has risen with low-interest rates and low inflation. Others attribute the rise to the central banks around the world massive stimulus programs to avoid a downward spiral.
Inflation is still relatively modest, but the job market is at its healthiest in years, and the unemployment rate is at a 17-year low. All of this baffles the analysts. They think this should lead to higher wages for workers, which could push inflation higher across the economy, but then there is the technology boom replacing workers. Banks have been letting go their older more expensive staff replacing them with junior people to save money. This too is creating confusion in the analytical world.
Others fear that if inflation picks up faster than the Federal Reserve is expecting, that it will force them to raise rates more quickly than it has prepped markets for. Then they calim a crash is still possible as if then people will sell private shares and run into government bonds once again.
Then there is the growing potential for a trade war. They argue that companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index got 43% of their sales from outside the country in 2016, Therefore, they see a trade war will kill earning and cause the crash. On the one hand, they admit Trump’s policy is a winner, but then again, it can backfire.
Then we have those who say Trump will create a real war with Korea. That they see as a geopolitical risk that can kill the bull market. Yet stocks have tended to rally during war periods.
They some say that the expectations have become just too high. Among the analysts at least, there is more recent optimism and more complacency after being wrong for the first 8 years.
Of course, our correlation models are completely different and proprietary so we do come up with different results
COMMENT: Hey Marty, if it’s true that the FBI formed a “Secret Society” to eliminate Trump in the 2016 elections isn’t this similar to the Praetorian Guard picking Emperor? The Elite Police/Military choose our leader. So in other words, the USA’s downward spiral has been sent in decided motion and we have begun our descent. I can’t believe people aren’t outraged.
That’s nuts!
Jeff
REPLY: The next step is to auction off the office of president to the highest bidder whoever promises the bureaucrats the most money for their pensions.
This reminds me of Marcus Didius Julianuswas a distinguished Senator of Rome. Emperor Commodus was assassinated and Pertinax became emperor and he, like Trump, was not liked by the bureaucrats so he was murdered by the Praetorian guards. After parading around with the head of Pertinax on a pole, the Praetorian Guards withdrew to the safety of their camp. There was no clear heir to the throne so the Guards stationed heralds on the wall to announce openly that the office of Emperor was up for sale to the highest bidder.
This incident became the most scandalous affair in the history of political corruption. Can you imagine that the FBI auctions off secretly the office of the President?
There were two rival bidders who presented themselves – Titus Flavius Sulpicianus (father-in-law of Pertinax) and Marcus Didius Julianus. Didius’ bid was 25,000 sestertii per man, which was the high bid and he was duly declared Emperor.
Didius Julianus quickly found himself in serious trouble. The treasury had been depleted much more so than he had expected under Commodus. Didius began to reduce the weight of the coinage trying to stretch the reserves as far as possible. At the same time, he attempted to politically demonstrate stability by also issuing coins bearing the portraits of his wife Manlia Scantilla and daughter.
Julianus found himself deserted by the Praetorians and deposed by the Senate. He sought refuge in his deserted palace but was beheaded on June 2nd after a reign of only 66 days.
If Mueller and his FBI conspirators take down Trump, they better beware. There may be a bigger rebellion against them than they ever imagined if history has anything to say.
COMMENT: Marty; I was just surfing and discovered that CNN did quote you back in 1998. They said you beat Soros since he lost $2 billion and you correctly called the Russian collapse and the Long-Term Capital Management collapse. Maybe they will wake up and quote you again being the only one to get the Dow right since 2010.
Pete
REPLY: Interesting. I forgot about that interview. It is the computer that is tracking the world. It is impossible for one person to monitor every market around the globe constantly. I do remember some others back then saying similar things. That was when I was named Hedge Fund Manager of the year.
All the Hedge Fund punters were colluding together on Russia. They were all expecting guaranteed trades. As I have said before, Edmond Safra invited me to the IMF dinner where he rented out the entire National Gallery of Art in Washington. They were trying to get me to join them on Russia and bluntly said the IMF was in their pocket and would keep the loans going so they could get tens of percentage points in interest from Russian bonds. I told them my model said it would collapse. They disagreed because they paid off the IMF and had the “perfect trade” in play.
After the London FT put our forecast on the front page of the second section, that started the blame game where I became the target since they all lost. As I said many times, the majority must be wrong even when they have billions and the IMF in their pocket.
Well, this is good news. Chairman Devin Nunes, and House Speaker Paul Ryan have had ample time to discuss the larger ramifications to “The Big Ugly”.
Late last week Ryan and Nunes traveled together to Saudi Arabia to review the new Saudi Counter-Extremism Intelligence Center *cough* that President Trump, Saudi King Salman, MBS and Egyptian President Fattah al-Sisi *cough* opened last year. Obviously Devin Nunes, Paul Ryan and their collective senior staffs would have a lot of time during travel to discuss the intelligence committee memo release.
According to Byron York when the House comes back into session tomorrow, the Intelligence Committee has a meeting scheduled for 5:00pm. Likely that’s when the vote will happen to ‘release the memo’.
WASHINGTON DC – The House Intelligence Committee meets at 5 p.m. Monday in the Capitol. The meeting will give the committee its first opportunity to vote on the question of releasing the so-called “FISA abuse” memo that has captured Washington’s attention in recent days. Since the GOP holds a 13 to 9 advantage on the committee, the overwhelming likelihood is that if there is a vote, the panel will decide, along party lines, to release the memo.
At that point, House rules call for the committee to await a decision by the president on whether he supports or opposes release of the memo. President Trump has made clear he supports release, so the memo could be made public quickly. (read more)
After the legislative branch votes to release the memo, it would immediately be given to President Trump (executive branch) for his review and approval of public release. President Trump has five-days for his review.
Generally speaking the Executive Branch National Security Council, and Office of Legal Counsel, with consultation with the Intelligence Community (including FBI and DOJ), would review anything the executive branch declassifies at the request of congress. However, in this example the contents are generally well known and discussed.
If the executive branch (POTUS Trump) approves, the material is immediately made available.
However, if the executive branch doesn’t approve, then after 5 days, the House of Representatives can vote to override the executive; and, if a majority of the house approve, they can release it despite the executive branch denial. This latter approach is extremely unlikely, because POTUS Trump wants the memo released. (I’m just sharing a process example)
The footnotes and citations will be just as much fun, if not more, than the actual content of the memo itself. Phase #2 will be declassifying the extremely sensitive material in the footnotes and citations. {{{grinning}}}
Somewhere, someone… on this website… sometime, happened to mentioned something, about seeing a need for a parallel intelligence construct, that could, if handled correctly, likely operate in a similar fashion to the NSA hub while the necessary watching of the watchers was taking place…
Wait,… what?…
Nah…
You….
C’mon…
That would mean…
Don’t even….
Wait…
You….
No-way…
Ah..
Coincidence. Nothing more.
I mean, really…. C’mon…
Dude…
That would mean,… I mean, that would…. this whole time…
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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