Category Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, DOW, Gold, Silver

May 17 2024

The Dow Hits First Target 40,000 – What’s Next?


Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: It is baffling why you are not on the front page of the WSJ, Barons, London FT, NY Times, and every financial newspaper claiming to be interested in markets. In the ’80s, when the Dow was 1,000, you forecast it would reach 6,000 by 1996. On the day of the 1987 low, you said the market would make new highs by 1989. You forecast the Nikkei high at 40,000 for 1980. Even after the 2007-2009 crash, you said the low would hold, and we would see new highs. In at least 2013, you said the Dow would test 40,000. You have correctly forecasted every crash and every high, yet the pretend main financial press will never report the truth.

You have shown the world that forecasting from a quantitative view rather than opinion is possible. My hat is off to you. You get standing ovations at conferences. You are a world teacher.

See you in London.

LS

REPLY: Thank you. I think the bias stems from what I experienced in school. The physics professor said nothing is random, and in economics class, they said it is random, like a drunk walking in the park staggering back and forth. So, we can follow Marx and Keynes and manipulate society to produce the perfect world.

Barrons
Djow New High Barrons

Even in 2013, the first projection was 40,000. In 2018, I again warned that 40,000 was not the extreme target but the medium range. You have to comprehend that everything is connected. You cannot have the Dow going to 40,000 and nothing else happens. The question now is that with the Neocons pushing for World War III before the economy and Europe also in desperate straight needing war, we have a clash of trends converging where there is nearly $11 trillion in US debt maturing this year, which I warned about on Feb 18, 2024.

ECM Eonomic Confidence Model Public Private MA

Do we get the knee-jerk reaction when people realize we have a DEBT CRISIS about to smack us in the face BEFORE the election? Or do we need war to get the foreigners to buy the debt that China will not? How long will it take people to figure out you need to hide in private assets – not public? That will dictate the length of a knee-jerk correction. This is why it takes a computer to make such projections – not personal opinions.

Time Magazine 2009

History dictates that they will only look at what I have done after Scotty has beamed me up – rarely ever before without a major crisis. That is just the way the prejudices and biases exist in human society. You will never extinguish them. Good and bad, that’s what makes us all human. Still, from time to time, there have been some who reported the forecasts.

Asia Kabushiki Shinbun – February 6 1995
May 17 2024

Dow Passes Record-Breaking 40,000 Midday – Jan 2020 Forecast Comes to Fruition


Posted originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=7wJ_BTOLxxo%3Ffeature%3Doembed

The Dow surpassed 40,000 during midday trading for the very first time this Thursday. In a January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg I explained that the Dow was heading up. The video was posted with the headline “DOW 40,000” and everyone dismissed my forecast as if it were my own personal opinion. I made similar statements in other interviews, such as my interview with Financial Sense five years ago in August 2019. I reiterated this forecast in a 2021 interview and continued to stick by the computer without relying on personal opinion.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=KxVl-HGYn5o%3Ffeature%3Doembed

I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models.

The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview with BNN Bloomberg, and while many feared a correction was coming, I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature and that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.

DOW JONES dollars

So what’s next, as indicated by Socrates? The computer sees the Dow rising to 65,000 by 2032 when we are likely to see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US.

Watch the Dow for it will show you where the international money is flowing. The big players are not interested in small tech or companies that could go under. The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, often tech-heavy, and usually does not peak at the same time. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.

Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. Socrates users have access to our capital flow heat map that shows where money is moving in real time. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US.

 

Aug 19 2023

This is Donald Trump’s Most Brilliant Inside Move to Benefit the MAGA Movement


Posted originally on the CTH on August 18, 2023 | Sundance 

If you understand the war inside the machine {GO DEEP} then this move by President Trump will make a lot more sense.

Going all the way back to 2016, the #1 value to the RNC from the candidacy of Donald Trump has always been the supporter data, the donor files and data of the people who support Donald Trump.   This data floored Reince Priebus in 2016, because the RNC had never before seen such a scale of grassroots donor support in the history of the organization.

The RNC administrative leadership were floored when the data-sharing requirement forced Trump’s team to turn over the data right before the GOP convention. It was so far beyond the scale of what they had ever seen before, they could not believe it.  Millions and millions of new first-time names. The core of middle-class America.

Data are people.  MAGA people. Lots of them. More than the RNC has ever known.

Right now, the corporate club known as the RNC is as much the enemy as the Biden DOJ.  Readers here know exactly what I am talking about, and there is no need to rehash all the facets and examples.  The battle inside the RNC is between the billionaire Wall Street club who controls it, and the MAGA voting base who operate within it.

President Trump snubbing the RNC debate in Wisconsin is a direct shot against the RNC as a private corporation. An RNC club that is covertly in alignment with the DNC, another private corporation funded by the same Wall Street billionaires.  The RNC is now going to justify the next attacks against Trump by pointing out his non-compliance with the debate.

The RNC has been covertly hostile, but you will now see them become openly hostile.  President Trump knows this, and his next move is brilliant.  President Trump has created an “official seal of approval” which must accompany any campaign endorsement, donor request or ancillary aspect implying Trump support.  This is directly done to counteract the ability of the RNC to exploit Trump’s affiliation and essentially hostage status.

In essence, the RNC cannot exploit the MAGA brand for RNC/MAGA endorsement, and or use the donor data files, without the Trump “seal of approval.”   The data becomes worthless, because without the Trump seal any request is ignored. Additionally, without the seal any RNC candidate is ignored.  This creates leverage.  This is how the insurgency forces the compliance of the GOPe.  At least that appears to be the goal from Donald Trump.

If the RNC, or any vendor or candidate they have sold the files to, including any candidate who runs but does not align with Trump, attempts to exploit the files without the Trump seal of approval, the fracture between Trump and the RNC becomes openly visible.

It is not coincidental this ‘Seal of Approval’ is announced after the debate decision was made public.

Donald J Trump – Bedminster, NJ — President Donald J. Trump will grant the right to use his “Seal of Approval” to an exclusive group of candidates and committees that the President endorses or otherwise supports. The purpose of the Seal is to help President Trump’s donors distinguish between authorized uses of his name and likeness, and unauthorized uses including oftentimes outright scams. It is intended to protect the President’s donors and supporters from illegitimate organizations falsely claiming some affiliation with President Trump and his campaign.

President Trump’s endorsement power is the most powerful force in American politics. His influence is election defining. When President Trump posts an endorsement on Truth Social, or a candidate onstage before tens of thousands of voters, America First patriots rally behind President Trump’s choice and deliver a decisive victory.

Unfortunately, some candidates, PACs and their fundraising vendors have drained millions of dollars from President Trump’s donors by falsely claiming that they support President Trump, that the President supports them, and that funds received in response to the solicitations will support, help, or defend President Trump. To fight this scam, President Trump’s endorsement will now include the right to use his name and likeness in fundraising solicitations and other campaign communications, as signified by this Seal. The Seal will be a powerful signal to President Trump’s loyal donors that the sender is on Team Trump and is not a scammer.

Candidates and committees authorized to use the Seal shall be permitted, and indeed encouraged, to use the Seal in connection with their activities on social media, in paid advertising, and on merchandise.

This Seal is revocable, non-exclusive license, and the digital art file containing the Seal is non-transferable. Any entity that mimics or unlawfully uses the Seal without explicit approval from a representative of President Trump’s campaign may face legal action.

Before responding to a fundraising solicitation from a candidate or committee, President Trump’s donors should visit DonaldJTrump.com/SealOfApproval to review an up-to-date list of candidates and committees the President has endorsed or supports. Candidates and committees that wish to be a part of Official Team Trump and receive the right to use the Seal should visit DonaldJTrump.com/SealOfApproval to apply.

By granting a candidate or committee the right to use this seal, President Trump does not solicit contributions for or on behalf of such candidate or committee. Additionally, the seal does not indicate or imply that President Trump or Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc. has reviewed or approved any fundraising solicitation or other communication in connection with the seal appears. Indeed, it has not done so and will not do so. (link)

There’s a new sheriff in town…

Apr 15 2023

Gold & the Dow Rally Together? OMG


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones Re-Posted Apr 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Well, the goldbugs are wrong again. This claim that the stock market must crash and only gold will rise is as you say sophistry. It looks like gold and the Dow are rallying together. I can see how they are just promoting a cult-like agenda.

Thanks for being objective

MH

REPLY: We became the biggest institutional adviser because there was never an agenda. Everything goes up, and everything comes down. There is an old saying among actual traders – NEVER marry the trade. I buy gold personally. I just bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces all uncirculated and all dated 1924. I do not regard it as a trade, just a stash for the long-term. It will go up and go down. Do not pretend that something only goes in one direction.

Here is a chart from Socrates on the Quarterly Level of the Dow/Gold Ratio. Anyone who only forecasts a single direction is NOT an analyst – they are a promoter like a used car salesman. No matter what we look at, there is a time to buy and a time to sell. EVERY market functions that was.

Here is an advertisement from April 9th, 1930 pitching Bank Stocks. Brokers were telling people to buy all the way down, average in, but it took 26 years for the Dow to reach the 1929 high again. Anyone selling any product will ALWAYS tell you to BUY. That is their business. It is up to you to come to terms with how ALL markets really move. Hence, there is always a TIME TO BUY just as there is a TIME TO SELL.