Hoards Are Vital to our Understanding of History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-Posted Jan 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why do you buy hoards? It is interesting. Just curious.

JY

ANSWER: The coinage is the ONLY way to truly confirm the history. Much of the most important periods like the 3rd century AD, the fall of the Republic, or the Revolution during the Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC known as the Social War, can only be properly understood through the coinage lacking really detailed accounts of financially what was taking place. By recreating the monetary system using coinage, I was able to answer the question – How did Rome Fall? Gradually? Or Catastrophically? By assembling all the coinage, and testing it out, I could establish what nobody else could due using documents or archaeological digs. Rome collapsed in just 8.6 years.

That was then observed in testing and using the same methods around the world. The collapse of the English coinage that inspired Gresham’s Law, bad money drives out good, also took just 8 years.

The Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 saw the gold content collapse also in just 8 years. The same pattern has unfolded time and time again. History repeats NOT because of wars or abstract theories. It repeats simply because human nature never changes – on technology.

The computer was about to forecast the fall of Communism in 1989.95 and it spread and took down the Berlin wall a few months after Tiananmen Square. People attributed that to modern communication. That was nonsense, The Roman Republic fell in 509 BC, and in the same few months in Athens, they too overthrew their tyrants, and Democracy was born.

The question is NOT how fast the information spreads. It could have traveled from Rome to Athens in a few days. The real question is how long does it take to filter through society to create political change?

Therefore, assembling the number of coins by examining hoards and the number of different dies multiplied by 15,000 will give us a good idea of the money supply at that time as illustrated above. Granted, this research project cost tens of millions of dollars to produce. Nonetheless, it has yielded a wealth of information that enabled us to see specifically what took place economically. Human nature has not changed. When Rome burned, Nero did visit the victims. Tiberius issued coins for the aid of Asia when a major earthquake devasted the region we call Turkey today.

I am finishing a book on the famous Battle of Actium where Mark Antony lost to Octavian giving birth to Imperial Rome. The number of dies and the amount of coins issued by Antony demonstrates that the entire wealth of Egypt was at his disposal and it was really an Egyptian proxy war against Rome. The number of silver denarii struck had to be at least 25 million. The sheer massive amount of the increase in the money supply thanks to Egypt was huge. Antony’s coins remained in circulation for decades, although very work. They were the most common coin found in hoards at Pompeii in 79AD about 100 years later. Hoards enable us to see the cost of that war and how it changed Egypt and Rome.

Where Rome began with bronze as its monetary unit and one pound was known as a Roman As, we can see that the price of the Punic Wars as what was one pound of bronze consistently declined. Here we found it was six waves of 51.6 years which are in themselves six waves of 8.6 years,  that produced the major wave of 309.6 years. So if we look from the beginning of the Roman As being 341 grams in 280 BC, by the time we get to Nero in 54AD, the Roman As was about only 10 grams.

Even looking at the reforms of Diocletian in 295AD, his introduction of the follis declines remarkably also following the six waves of 8.6 years. I have looked at the monetary systems of Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. they have conformed to the Economic Confidence Model confirming that this is a cycle that clearly incorporates everything from war to climate change.

Even though Emperor Titus’ (79-81AD) reign was marked by a relative absence of military and political conflicts after his father, Vespasian (69-79AD) had defeated Judaea was defeated, there were several disasters during his brief leadership. On October 24 in 79 AD, Mount Vesuvius erupted and almost destroyed the cities and resort communities around Naples. The cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum were buried under stones and lava in 79AD shortly after Titus (79-81AD) came to power. Titus made all efforts to help the victims of the volcano and donated large amounts of money from the imperial treasury. The emperor visited Pompeii right after the tragedy happened.

A single silver denarius was discovered in 1974 among the 180 silver coins buried in Pompeii. When it was cataloged, it overturned history. Titus’ father died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia. Titus sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received the title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct.

Archeologists in Pompeii have discovered a remarkable inscription written in charcoal which has survived the catastrophe confirming that the eruption of Mt Vesuvius indeed took place in October 79AD as confirmed by the coin discovered and ignored by historians.  The charcoal writing, discovered on the wall of a villa during a new phase of excavations, adds weight to a theory that the volcano destroyed the town in October 79AD rather than August of that year in line with Cassio Dio and the denarius of Titus. The date of August 24th, 79 AD, came from a letter addressed by Pliny the Younger to the Roman historian Tacitus, originally written some 25 years after the event.

Titus devoted much of his silver coinage of Atonement to the gods for the disaster of Pompeii. There were four main Atonement issues commemorating the services of prayer and propitiation through which the emperor attempted to address the public alarm over the disaster. People often attributed such events to the gods being angry. The coinage showed emblems seeking the approval of Jupiter, Neptune, Apollo, and the deceased former Emperors to watch over the Roman people.

News actually spread rapidly around the Roman Empire. There were formal boards where notices would be posted in which important news and major events would be informed to the people much like such a board in a big company with notices to the employees. These boards were called the Acta Diurna and they were designed to inform the Roman people thereby avoiding fake news. We could call them ancient billboards in modern terms and even government officials would walk up and pin a written notice and the crowds would rush to see what is news. Thus, everyone knew of Pompeii in a matter of days. It did not take long for information to circulate.

Because the coin dies back then were hand carved, we are able to identify the number of dies in use during a given year because each is unique. Just look at these portraits on the famous Tribute Penny of Tiberius (14-37AD). It all depended upon the artistic ability of the engraver.

The coin itself has taken its name because Jesus, referring to a denarius, which the English translated to “penny” because that was their silver coin, asked: “Whose is this image and superscription?” When answered that the likeness was Caesar, He replied; ”Render therefore unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s” (Matthew 22:20-21). Thus, the coin has been called the tribute penny meaning that was how you paid your taxes.

Hoards have enabled me to (1) see what was in circulation at that point in time for the hoard can be dated to around the most recent coin in the hoard. (2) I also have a number of ancient Roman dies like this one of Tiberius. Studies creating modern dies to test how many coins could be struck from such a die before it cracked provides a picture of about 15,000 coins.

By completing die studies quantifying how many were in use, it then becomes possible to estimate the money supply. Here we can see that during the Social War of 90-87BC, there is a drastic increase in the quantity of coinage issued obviously to pay for soldiers. However, conducting metal testing on the coinage of this period, we find that Rome also debased the coinage slightly adding up to 10% copper to the silver. Therefore, studying hoards allows one to actually ascertain the extreme of monetary affairs.

The Social War of the First Century BC was a failed Revolution against the corrupt Republic. The rebellion was waged by ancient Rome’s Italian allies (socii) who were denied equal rights with the Romans, despite the fact that they also fought alongside Romans in battle. They were seeking to separate and thus they fought for independence. Here are the coins of the rebels. They are very rare. You can see the theme celebrating the female head of Italia.

The allies in central and southern Italy had fought side by side with Rome in several wars and had grown restive under Roman autocratic rule, wanting instead Roman citizenship and the privileges it conferred. In 91 BC, the Roman tribune Marcus Livius Drusus proposed granting them Roman citizenship. The arrogance of the Senators erupted into a heated opposition. They went as far as to even Drusus for daring to propose such a decree. That resulted in the revolution.

When I dug deeper, the coinage with the debasement also reveals that there was a financial crisis. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period that resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default. The Roman Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC has left behind a vivid account of what took place. The volume of gold and silver in Italy had increased dramatically during the late 2nd century BC following the Punic Wars. We have the first real gold coins issued by the Roman Republic at that time.

However, this concentration of wealth, which was akin to the United States after World War I and II, was absorbed by commercial expansion and investment in Gaul and Asia. A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC which was a war waged between the Roman Republic and several of the other cities in Italy (no taxation without representation), which prior to the war had been Roman allies for centuries. The war was begun by the Picentes because the Romans did not want to afford them Roman citizenship, thus leaving the Italian groups with fewer rights. The war resulted in a Roman victory and genocide against the Samnites. However, Rome granted Roman citizenship to almost all of its Italian allies, including the Samnites, to avoid another war. Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections.

The Social War led to the complete state bankruptcy of the Roman State. We can see the dramatic rise in the money supply created during this time of war. This turmoil was then followed by the dictatorship of Sulla who then imposed an attempt to control the debt crisis capping interest rates at 12%. The previous legal rate was capped at 8.5%, but obviously, the market had exceeded that limit and Sulla had to confront that reality in 88BC. The debt crisis continued and then in 86 BC, the government was compelled into default. This is when the Valerian Law came into play. The State debts were defaulted on and thus reduced to 25%.

Bang War Drums Loudly, Joe Biden Announces U.S. Sending Tanks to Ukraine as Deeping NATO War Against Russia Continues


Posted originally on the CTH on January 25, 2023 | Sundance

The Biden administration is pushing the United States into war against Russia to protect Washington DC’s political and financial interests in Ukraine.  None of this is a surprise as both Republican and Democrat politicians in DC continue to use Ukraine as a money laundering operation for key U.S. stakeholders.

Today Joe Biden announced he is sending 31 ‘Abram Tanks’ from the U.S. arsenal into Ukraine to further push the United States into direct conflict with Russia.  The potential for direct U.S. military engagement in Ukraine is now just a matter of formality, as the Abram’s tanks will be accompanied by military advisors, trainers, and the processes to sustain and maintain them on the battlefield.   WATCH:

[Transcript] – […] “today, I’m announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine, the equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion.

Secretary Austin has recommended this step because it will enhance the Ukraine’s capacity to defend its territory and achieve its strategic objectives.

The Abrams tanks are the most capable tanks in the world. They’re also extremely complex to operate and maintain, so we’re also giving Ukraine the parts and equipment necessary to effectively sustain these tanks on the battlefield.

And we begi- — we’ll begin to train the Ukrainian troops on these issues of sustainment, logistics, and maintenance as soon as possible. Delivering these tanks to the field is going to take time, time that we’ll see — we’ll use to make sure the Ukrainians are fully prepared to integrate the Abram tanks into their defenses.

We also closely coordinated this announcement with our Allies. (read more)

We are being pushed into a war that few Americans want.

This is getting out of hand mostly because the Russians are defeating Ukraine in the war.  Without the U.S. operators and material involved, Ukraine cannot win.  However, the Biden administration view Ukraine as a U.S. proxy in Europe, and as such all of the corrupt DC systems are in alignment to continue escalating this conflict.

This is happening against the backdrop of Ukraine officials being caught stealing money given to Ukraine to fight the war.

None of this is good, and it is likely to get worse.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The decision to provide the tanks marks a stunning reversal for the Biden administration, which had previously argued they would be of little benefit to Ukraine.

But the decision to send the Abrams tanks helped get Germany to move forward with a separate effort to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which the U.S. had seen as benefitting Kyiv.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Wednesday that Berlin would send Leopard tanks to Ukraine and allow for other European nations to also send the German-made tanks to Kyiv. (more)

Flirting with Nuclear Catastrophe, Pompeo/Khashoggi Controversy, AOC’s Goons, & More! | SYSTEM UPDATE #27


Glenn Greenwald Streamed on: Jan 24, 7:00 pm EST

Russia Prepared for NATO Invasion


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 25, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The West has decided to turn this into an all-out war to completely destroy Russia once and for all. Moscow has been put on high alert and air defenses are being put up in every sector of the city. The hardliners are being heard and Putin has little choice at this point. It has become absolutely obvious that even Germany now is sending tanks into Ukraine and they will be used to invade Russia. It appears that NATO “advisors” will be most likely driving these tanks.

I had hoped things would not unravel as quickly as they have. I warned that January was a major target in time coming up in our arrays. We also then have major targets in April/May and Panic Cycles in June. Even gold is moving higher which has NOTHING to do with inflation or the Fed. Gold rises during times of uncertainty with governments and war. Our computer has pinpointed the timing pretty well.

Even the prime minister of Finland has drunk the cool aid of war. Our world leaders are willing to throw everything society has accomplished into the rubbish all for this quest to destroy Russia, then China, and create this one-world dream of Soros and Schwab.

Understand that when war unfolds, they will impose capital controls in Europe ASAP. We even see Russian capital moving into Turkey buying real estate there in particular. Meanwhile, South Africa is aligning itself with Russia.

Why do Neocons Want War with Russia?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Lindsey Graham is the twin brother of John McCain. I had asked John McCain once why he hated Russia so much. He never responded with any reason. It was always the same nonsense he always spread before Putin and after. It has baffled me as to what the difference is between Germany and Russia. We do not belittle Germany or hate its people solely because of Hitler. When it comes to Russia, it does not matter who is president, nothing ever changes. Graham said:

“If Putin gets away with this, there goes Taiwan. If Putin’s successful in Ukraine and isn’t prosecuted under international law, everything we’ve said since WWII becomes a joke. He will continue beyond Ukraine.” 

Lindsey Graham is an outright neocon who will say anything to achieve his dream – the destruction of Russia even though it is not communist. There is absolutely ZERO evidence since the fall of the USSR that anyone has sought to conquer Europe. Both Hitler and Napoleon were seeking to re-establish the old Roman Empire and rule over all of Europe. Both attempted to take Egypt to relive the glory of Rome. Some say to fulfill the prophecy that the end will come when the Holy Roman Empire Rises for that will be the time when we die. Don’t worry, Putin does not aspire to that dream. I’m not so sure about the American Neocons.

To even say if Putin wins in Ukraine, “there goes Taiwan” is an absolutely delusional statement. If anything, China would be better off taking Taiwan as the US foolishly keeps sending military arms to Ukraine. The US has already transferred thousands of artillery shells from a military weapons stockpile in Israel to Ukraine. They did the same sending weapons from South Korea to Ukraine. It was reported back in March of 2022 that planes take off almost daily from Dover Air Force Base in Delaware filled with Javelins, Stingers, howitzers, and everything else they can fit. Likewise, Germany began the same in February 2022.

Just this past week, the US military warned Biden that Is the U.S. Running Out of Weapons to even send to Ukraine. The EU foreign policy chief  also warned that “the military stocks of most [EU] member states has been, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians.”

While the US aid to Ukraine came in at $113 billion far greater than Russia’s budget of 65.9 billion, it is double the military budgets of both France and Germany. It is approaching 50% of the annual budget of China. Just looking at the military spending, Russia has not been preparing to invade Europe. This is absolutely an absurd argument.

John McCain has never changed his view of Russia regardless of who is at the helm. Politico called him the “American antagonist of Russia.” It was McCain who kept pushing NATO Eastward up to the border of Russia all on his claims that if the West does not expand NATO, then Russia will. He proclaimed that those in power did not want to restore the “Soviet Union, but the Russian empire.” There was NEVER a single move that Russia ever made to imply that theory was remotely correct post-1991 and the fall of the USSR.

Lindsey Graham is carrying the banner of hatred for all Russians. It does not matter if Russia overthrows Putin, he dies, or retires. He will still hate Russia and want an all-out war to destroy Russia wiping it off the map once and for all.

The Russian people like Europeans and Americans, do not want war. Like everyone else they just want to enjoy life and take care of their families. It is always the leaders who create all the wars. We are just the dirt beneath their feet – the great unwashed who are always expendable because there are too many of us anyway.

This hatred of Russia is a strategic psychological tactic to sell the idea of war to the common people so they are willing to die for something they think is noble. Not much different from the young arab terrorists who are told this is a holy war and God will reward them if they blow themselves up. The leaders there too will never blow themselves up either.

So why do people like Lindsey Graham just hate Russians and wants war at all cost? It is hard to say. We do not hate Germans today because of Hitler. So why do we hate Russians because of Stalin? One thing is for sure, this hatred of Russia is exhausting our own conventional military supplies so while we cheer claiming Ukraine is winning, we will not be in a position to defend even ourselves if China and North Korea, as well as Iran, decide to join the party.

Zelensky’s Holy War – Seizing Russian Churches


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I just read that Ukraine seized control of a Russian Orthodox Church that has been there for a century. You were correct. Zelensky has also made this a holy war. The Ukrainian people should rise up against this guy. He is killing them all for hatred.

SH

REPLY. I have had staff on both sides in Ukraine. I have been well aware of the hatred and animosity that I do not see will ever be resolved. This is like the battle between the Shite v Sunni in Islam or the Catholic v Protestants in Christianity. Zelensky has shut down free speech and has seized control of the main cathedral and monastery in Kyiv which has always been Russian. It has always been affiliated with the Russian Orthodox patriarchate and allowed its Ukrainian rival group to use it for Orthodox Christmas services. The cathedral is the oldest Orthodox church in Kharkiv. This was constructed in the Baroque style at the expense of the community in 1771-1777  long before Ukraine was even an idea. The old church was destroyed and dated from the middle of the 17th century.

This is no different from the French King seizing the Vatican and moving it to France at Avignon. Zelensky outright hates Russians and has even called on NATO to NUKE Moscow in a sneak attack. Zelensky said a nuclear attack on Russia is “needed so that [the Russians] know what awaits them if they use nuclear weapons” during an event with the Australian think tank the Lowy Institute. “Not the other way around, waiting for Russia’s nuclear strikes and then saying, ‘Oh, you’ve done that, then get this.’”

This is the guy we are to send any missiles to? He is consumed with hatred and is the most dangerous head of state perhaps surpassing even Stalin and Kruschev.

Stirring the Pot For War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. This is just our time to collapse the same as communism collapsed in 1989 in China and Russia. We have run our course and the clock is running out of time. This is the 34th year since 1989. Socialism will collapse. It has no other choice here in 2023.

I have received videos from Ukrainian soldiers who are threatening to go after Zelensky. I was not given permission to post them so I do not want to get anyone in trouble. They are dying in far greater numbers than the rigged press is reporting and they are freezing.

Strategically, the US is attempting to create the Asian version of NATO aligning with Japan and the Philippines to rely on their soldiers to fight China. Meanwhile, in China, there is absolutely no question that they are preparing to take Taiwan and I believe this was accelerated by the Biden Administration (1) abandoning the one-China policy maintained since Nixon and allowing Pelosi to fly to Taiwan just ahead of the elections in China which was an absolute brain dead stunt. Consequently, China is gearing up for military action to take control of Taiwan because the Biden Administration has actually called their bluff. President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term last year and has made it clear he plans to retake Taiwan. Pay attention in May.

Meanwhile, with respect to North Korea, we would have to take into account their 1.2 million-man Korean People’s Army, which is organized into nineteen corps-sized units, including nine infantry corps, four mechanized corps, one armored corps, one artillery corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, Missile Guidance Bureau and Light Infantry Instruction Guidance Bureau. More than half of these forces, particularly the mechanized, armor, and artillery forces are located near the DMZ, making an early cross-border assault unattractive. Kim and Putin have come to an agreement and will support each other. On the 72-year anniversary of the Koren War when they prevailed against the United States, Kim condemned “aggression moves” by Washington and Seoul, vowing to take revenge at a time of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula. Here too, it appears that Kim is preparing for war against at least the South and possibly expanding into Japan – a hated enemy.

The Middle East is heating up with Iran preparing for war against Saudi Arabia. This has prompted even Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider a joint defense agreement. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have come together to also form an alliance. We may also expect that Syria will join on the side of Russia in the Middle East.

Looking at Iran just from the 1979 confrontation taking American hostages, the turning points for the last three waves, which are always the most intense, lined up with the 2014 turn on the Global War Model. The next wave was November 3rd, 2022 and here we see widespread civil unrest. In fact, the United Nations called it a critical situation on November 22nd, 2022.

The world is dumbfounded as to why in the hell we have world leader cheering war on every continent. I put forth a solution, some did not like it, but there is no other way out of this other than Schwab’s “Great Reset” which is really all about defaulting on all the national debts, the end of socialism, and the push for a one world government to end democracy so government retains power. Under my solution, the government would relinquish power. They did not like that. Schwab’s way leaves it necessary to create World War III, reduce the population escapes the pension liabilities, and start over with a new Bretton Woods II.

In 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in calling for better regulation of global financial markets.

“We urgently need what you might call the ‘new Bretton Woods,’ so that we can restore confidence in the system while dealing with the areas that have been exposed in recent weeks.”

I posted this video 5 years ago. It has only gotten worse.

Twice as Many Civilians Always Die v Military


Armstrong Economics log/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

War is never a ONE-SIDED affair. People get frustrated and will often seek revenge personally on both sides of any conflict. These people who point to Russians as killing civilians and vice versa should understand one thing. EVERY war results in MORE civilian casualties than military. I do not know what planet these people are on, but cheering war is one great way to reduce the population.

Just check the stats on World War II. The total estimated deaths were 70–85 million people. That was about 3% of the estimated 2.3 billion global population in 1940.

  • Total Death … 70-85 million (50-56 million directly & 19-28 million from starvation/disease)
  • Military deaths ….. 21-25 million
  • Civilian Deaths….. 50-55 million

Anyone claiming the Russians killing civilians is somehow a war crime should check history. It is typically civilian deaths are double that of the military. So while Zelensky and the Western powers refuse to end this war and just let the Donbas separate as was set out at the Minsk Agreement, should understand the civilian death toll in Ukraine may easily be 50% or even hire all for land that was never Ukrainian in the first place. The West is using the Ukrainian people as fools for they are simply there to weaken Russia so NATO can invade Moscow in the end. The Ukrainian people are simply cannon fodder and the sooner they wake up and realize that are just a pawn being sacrificed in this proxy war against Russia the sooner they can reclaim their life.

I get the typical hate mail because I do not blindly accept Ukraine is fighting against the Russian evil empire for democracy or freedom related to its own people. One clearly Neonazis sent an email:

“There will definitely be a very special place in hell for you and the sooner you get there the better.”

I have encountered the Neonazis of Ukraine. They would slaughter every Russian in the Donbas. I do not tolerate fools, politicians, or people who are consumed by their own hate that they cannot see clearly or even think rationally. Their hatred is consuming the world and they will do whatever they can to completely destroy every Russian no different than the German Nazis who sought to exterminate every Jew.

I have been in the middle of this entire Russian affair since 1999. Both sides have always hurled arrows at me. So I am just used to it. When Galina Starovoytova (1946-1998), who was the head of the Democratic movement in Moscow, was assassinated, suddenly the old hardlines were targeting me and said she was a puppet of a Western financier, which was supposed to be me. I was shocked that I was suddenly being targeted I believe by the head of the old guard Primakov who I believe had been behind her assassination and the attack on me. The only connection was that her son was working in our London office at the time.

I always get the arrows from every side. That is just part of life.

The Real Cost of War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Good Morning Mr. Armstrong, a long-time reader and client of Socrates and your conferences. I just read your entry for Belarus drafting 18 to 60-year-olds. I had a feeling that eventually, that would take place here in the states. I can tell you without a doubt, I will never comply. My family has served in WWII and Vietnam. We have given enough. I absolutely despise our government. I am wondering if this is part of the continued collapse of the government. With such low recruitment levels and the political fallout from the past few years, they must realize people will not be forced to serve. Especially those with the means to defend themselves. Is this a main component of civil unrest here with separatist movements? Just curious if you can elaborate on what you think will happen when they institute a draft here.
All the Best.

J

REPLY: My family has fought in every war since the American Revolution. My cousin still has the musket on his wall from the American Revolution. I lost half of my high school friends to Vietnam and my father and his three brothers were all in World War II and my grandfathers on both sides of the family were in World War I. There is no question that in a time of war, the first shot fired is both silent and never against an enemy. It is always against any truthful reporting of events.

The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) Extract Files contain records of 58,220 U.S. military fatal casualties of the Vietnam War. The government propaganda site, Wikipedia also directed by the Deep State, has low-balled the casualties claiming in total, all US and allied military deaths reached 282,000. We claim that is a victory for the VC lost 444,000 to possibly 666,000. The civilians who died have been low-balled with estimates of 405,000 up to 627,000. Just turn to Britannica and you get:

“In 1995 Vietnam released its official estimate of the number of people killed during the Vietnam War: as many as 2,000,000 civilians on both sides and some 1,100,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters.”

President Lydon Johnson knew there was no reason to enter Vietnam. He knew we could not get out easily. Still, he committed the country to war because the Neocons wanted it.

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This is a famous photograph from Vietnam that is probably the most memorable of all time. You see South Vietnamese forces following terrified children. At the center is 9-year-old Phan Thi Kim Phùc, as she and other children are running from an aerial napalm attack on suspected Viet Cong hiding places on June 8, 1972. The plane accidentally dropped napalm on South Vietnamese troops and civilians. As always, just the collateral damage of war. The terrified girl had ripped off her burning clothes while fleeing. This photo was taken by Nick Ut of The Associated Press that captured the horror of Vietnam worldwide. It was 1972 when President Nixon said enough and promised to bring the troops home.

This 9-year-old make girl running from napalm, Phan Thi Kim Phúc, had profoundly changed her forever. Such people are tormented for a lifetime. They wake up at night dreaming over and over about the horror of those events for the rest of their lives. Kim Phúc was bitter and full of hatred she said. Later, she picked up the Bible and converted to Christianity. Today, she lives in Toronto with her family and helps other children victims of war around the world. It is those who survive who are profoundly tortured for the remainder of their lives. That is the real cost of war that nobody cares about.

The official estimate of civilian deaths in World War II stands at a total of 70–85 million. The actual military deaths were 21,000,000 to 25,500,000. There is ALWAYS an equal amount of civilian deaths in times of war. Those in power never want to talk about that.