The Fed Does Not Back Down


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, it’s refreshing to have Socrates that is totally unbiased. It projected continued rising rates into next year and the Fed just proved its point. It is not backing down.

Thank you. Socrates is very enlightening.

GS

ANSWER: I know there were a lot of talks that surely the Fed had to lower rates and start QE all over again. Most of those sorts of comments have no real experience in markets. They just mouth a lot of hot air. Perhaps instead of putting masks on cows, we should do that on the shills. The Federal Reserve had no choice but to raise interest rates although it was just by a quarter point. Not to do so and the Fed would lose all credibility and the market would then not take them seriously.

You MUST understand that this crisis has unfolded because too many banks were wrapped up in WOKE culture and hired people who were UNQUALIFIED to run risk management. Some were more excited about cross-dressing as a woman and winning the Rainbow award in banking than actually protecting the bank from the risk of rising interest rates.

In a statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, Fed officials acknowledged that recent financial market turmoil is weighing on inflation and the economy, though they expressed confidence in the overall system. “The US banking system is sound and resilient.” They had no choice but to make this statement.

“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”

The Fed is saying that their rise in rates will in fact reduce inflation and economic activity. The banks have this yield curve risk and that is different from the 2007-2009 crisis where the debt was based on fraud. Here, the debt is US Treasuries so they are not going bankrupt from that aspect, but it is a liquidity crisis.

If these people who scream loudly but know nothing really about finance keep up the nonsense, they will only add to the uncertainly. This inflation is accelerating thanks to the war.

Toxic Currencies – Good for the Yuan


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Chinese yuan has out-traded the US dollar by volume for one of the first times in recent Russian history. The dollar was king in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, but that is no longer the case after Moscow branded the dollar a “toxic currency” along with the euro. Toxic currencies accounted for 87% of exports from Russia at the beginning of 2022, but this figure fell to 48% by the start of the new year. The Bank of Russia has reported that the proportion of USD/ruble pair in exchange fell to only 36% in February. The central bank is calling this a “broad structural transformation of the Russian economy.”

As “unfriendly countries” and their “toxic currencies” band together, those on the outskirts are winning. China has become the new go-to country for new trade partnerships as it bypasses Western-imposed sanctions. Toxic currencies represented 46% of imports in December 2022 but were at 65% in January 2022 before the war. In contrast, the yuan’s share rose from 4% to 23% during that time.

Those who were previously shunned from the big table are now pulling up a chair to discuss economic prospects with China. This will make it much easier to phase out toxic currencies because more people are willing to accept the yuan. The confidence in the yuan is growing. Everything occurring may seem odd, but it is precisely on target. As I mentioned in my report “China on the Rise,” China will dethrone the United States to become the world’s leading economic powerhouse by 2032. It’s just time.

Congressman Michael McCaul Says Pence “Avoided a Constitutional Crisis” on January 6, 2021


Posted originally on the CTH on March 12, 2023 | Sundance

During an interview with Margaret Brennan today, Congressman Michael McCaul -another GOPe weasel – said he stands with Vice President Mike Pence in saying “they avoided a constitutional crisis” on January 6, 2021, when Congress declared an emergency session and refused to entertain any challenges to the 2020 election certification.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Texas Republican Congressman Michael McCaul.

Good morning to you, Chairman McCaul.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas): Good Morning, Margaret.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I have got a lot to get to with you today.

But I want to start where I just left off with those very strong remarks from Mike Pence last night. Do you want to associate yourself with what he said?

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Let me just say Vice President Pence exercised moral clarity and judgment that day by doing his constitutional responsibility, authenticating the votes and counting them.

He avoided a major constitutional crisis that day. As you know, I voted for certification. That is our constitutional role not to overturn state- certified ballots. So, I agree. I mean, look, it was a dark — dark day. And I think people will be — history will judge everyone by what they did that day.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.

It was a pretty strong condemnation of Donald Trump, who he hasn’t directly taken on like that before. But it’s also back in the news very much, Chairman, because it was the speaker of the House who gave those 41,000 hours of surveillance video access to FOX News, which then has used a recasting of the events, trying to sanitize it, trying to whitewash history.

Do you think it was a mistake for Republican leadership to strike this deal with Tucker Carlson? That is who Mike Pence was talking about.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Well, I know Kevin McCarthy has turned all the videotape over to FOX News.

He has given me assurance he’s going to turn it over to the entire media. I think — I believe in the fourth estate, freedom of press, and I think the American people deserve to see all the footage from that day, and all the footage is not going to be tourism at the Capitol. It’s going to show a very dark, tragic day that I witnessed firsthand that included our Capitol Police being assaulted, 140 of them injured, two pipe bombs, one — one Capitol police officer killed, and a protester killed.

That’s not — that’s not a good day. And I think it should have been prevented had we had good intelligence that day beforehand. And, look, I support law enforcement. Like this D.C. crime bill we were passing, I support law enforcement everywhere, especially at the United States Capitol.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you on the other side of an upcoming commercial break about the hearing you just held on Afghanistan.

But, before I do that, I want to quickly ask you about what we’ve been talking about, with the Treasury Secretary saying no government bailout for this Silicon Valley Bank, but they are trying to take some action.

She didn’t give a lot of detail there. I know Austin is a start-up hub in your home state of Texas. How concerned are you about spillover here?

REPRESENTATIVE REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Yes, we do have South by Southwest this weekend, a lot of tech.

Yes, I am concerned, I hope it’s more of an isolated event, because the assets were very — it was all just technology sector and it wasn’t diversified, also, as the secretary mentioned these low interest bonds. And I think part of the problem, Margaret, is, in this inflationary time, the Reserve, Federal Reserve, now is raising interest rates, and that, I think, is part of the problem as well.

We want to make sure this is — this is an isolated event, and not a systemic event that could impact things like in 2008…

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: … when we did bailout the financial sector.

MARGARET BRENNAN: All right, I have got to take that break now.

And we’ll come back and continue our conversation in a moment.

(ANNOUNCEMENTS)

MARGARET BRENNAN: If you can’t watch Face the Nation live, you can set your DVR. We’re also available through our CBS and Paramount+ apps.

And we’re replayed on our CBS News Streaming Network.

(ANNOUNCEMENTS)

MARGARET BRENNAN: We will be right back with a lot more Face the Nation.

(ANNOUNCEMENTS)

MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to FACE THE NATION.

We want to return now to our conversation with House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul.

Now, Chairman, I mentioned that you held this hearing on Afghanistan this past week, and it was pretty emotional.

REP. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-TX): Yes.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You’re really examining the chaotic withdrawal from that country. And you had a Marines Corps sergeant, injured in the suicide bombing, who testified that he was an eyewitness and he actually saw the suicide bomber before the attack. He testified he has never been interviewed as part of the U.S. investigation.

How was this overlooked?

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: I think it’s very — well, first of all, very powerful testimony. Very emotional. But very devastating and damaging to the administration. These – these snipers and troops were put at HKIA, surrounded by the Taliban.

MARGARET BRENNAN: The airport in Kabul.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: They put the Taliban in — in Kabul. That’s the HKIA airport. And surrounded by the Taliban who were put in charge. And that was the first mistake in the chaos that we heard that happened that day and the State Department virtually non-existent.

I think the most dramatic thing, Margaret, was the fact that this sniper had the suicide bomber in his sights and an intelligence bulletin went out, you know, describing him. He said, this is — this meets the description, meets with the team, PSYOPS, psychological operations get together, they run this up the chain of command and the commanding officer says, I don’t have the authority. And then they said, who does have the authority for permission to engage, and the commanding officer says, I don’t know, and he never got back to them.

The point is, they could have taken out this threat. But then, when the suicide bomber went off, not only did Marine Sergeant Vargas Andrews have his leg blown off and his arm, but we had 140 Afghans killed, 13 service men and women killed.

I talked to the mother of one of the Marine sergeants.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: I gave her just a hug. She was so devastated. In addition to 50 injured, including Marine Sergeant Vargas Andrews.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: And it could have been avoided.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, to the point of how it could be avoided. You know, you – you hear it, there were intelligence failures. Events just got ahead of planning.

The State Department argues that they’ve briefed Congress more than 150 times since the withdrawal. What information do you need that you don’t have yet?

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Well, I think the compelling testimony we got from the sniper. We’ve never heard this before. In fact, Margaret, this is the first open hearing we’ve had on Afghanistan since the fall of Afghanistan. And I intend to move forward with this investigation. And I what to know what the commanding officer was thinking when he denied permission to take out the threat and how — what levels did it go to within the United States government? I think those are all very important questions.

And the State Department has not been compliant with our document requests. I met with the secretary. We had a very cordial conversation. Cooperation is always key. But they’re not cooperating. If he fails to cooperate with my document production request by, you know, the time he testifies on March 23rd, I am prepared to issue a subpoena.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And issue — issue a subpoena for Antony Blinken to come testify before your committee. What exactly do you think he’s withholding? What’s the documents?

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: No, he is – he — he will be testifying, but we have an outstanding document production request that the lawyers are very combative. I think the secretary, in good faith, has told me he wants to cooperate with this investigation, be transparent to the American people, but we’re not seeing that with the lawyers handling this on the ground. So, we need these documents because a lot of this stuff, to your point, Margaret, has never been brought out to the public.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes. This is the dissent cable specifically that you are requesting, that is people within the State Department disagreeing with the policy that was the administration’s planning?

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: It’s a dissent cable. The extraordinary measure to have 23 members of the State Department at the embassy dissenting with the policy.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.

REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: The after action report from the ambassador. But also the plan of evacuation. Just a simple plan of evacuation. What was your plan? They have failed to deliver that to Congress. Those are three key, you know, areas that we want to see compliance with.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.

All right, Congressman, we will be watching that. I know there are a number of other issues we’ll talk to you about sometime soon, including China, but I’ve got to leave it there for today. [Transcript End]

Mike Pence Blames President Trump for Events at Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, “his reckless words endangered my family … history will hold Donald Trump accountable”


Posted originally on the CTH on March 12, 2023 | Sundance

Speaking at the Gridiron Dinner in Washington DC yesterday, former Vice President Mike Pence directly blamed President Trump for the events in Washington DC on January 6, 2021, saying:

“President Trump was wrong; I had no right to overturn the election. And his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable.”  ~ Mike Pence

Be of good cheer.  Despite the main takeaway being pushed by mainstream media, these remarks strike me as good news.

These remarks indicate to me that the professional Republican control officers are growing increasingly desperate as President Trump continues to command the new Republican Party.  If Ron DeSantis was making ground, the professional Republican class would not be as desperate as these remarks convey.  All of their collective GOPe effort isn’t working…. they are starting to reach for the kitchen sink.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday harshly criticized former President Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, widening the rift between the two men as they prepare to battle over the Republican nomination in next year’s election.

“President Trump was wrong,” Pence said during remarks at the annual white-tie Gridiron Dinner attended by politicians and journalists. “I had no right to overturn the election. And his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable.”

Pence’s remarks were the sharpest condemnation yet from the once-loyal lieutenant who has often shied away from confronting his former boss. Trump has already declared his candidacy. Pence has not, but he’s been laying the groundwork to run.

[…] With his remarks, Pence solidified his place in a broader debate within the Republican Party over how to view the attack. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, for example, recently provided Tucker Carlson with an archive of security camera footage from Jan. 6, which the Fox News host has used to downplay the day’s events and promote conspiracy theories.

“Make no mistake about it, what happened that day was a disgrace,” Pence said in his Gridiron Dinner remarks. “And it mocks decency to portray it any other way.” (read more)

Kristi Noem Sends Warning About State Level Effort to Redefine Currency, Same Legislation Currently Hitting 20 States


Posted originally on the CTH on March 11, 2023 | Sundance

South Dakota Governor Krisi Noem appeared on Tucker Carlson’s television broadcast last night to send a warning to fellow governors.  According to the background story, the South Dakota legislature passed a bill redefining currency and creating rules for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that would block all other digital currencies from being used in the state.  Governor Noem vetoed the bill.

When asked why her legislature would do this, Noem responded the state politicians likely did not read the bill as it was constructed by lobbyists.  Noem is exactly correct and hits on a subject we have discussed here frequently {GO DEEP}.  However, one of the more alarming aspects to Noem’s discussion of the issue is that around 20 other states are considering similar legislation.  WATCH:

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