One of the Bidenary impacts to economic analysis and/or economic outcome review has been the inability of any government statistical data to make any sense.
Quite frankly, almost every financial pundit in mainstream media pretends the data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or the Dept of Commerce is accurate. It’s not, and we all know it.
Just like every other institution in Washington DC, the systems of economic tracking have lost all their credibility.
That said, even with all the pretending intended to prop-up the Biden administration, eventually the results on Main Street are so obvious the data manipulators have to quietly attempt to smooth the disconnect. This story below is about one small part of that operation.
WASHINGTON DC – […] Job growth was overestimated by more than 770,000 last year. Put differently, about 1 in 4 jobs that were supposedly added last year never existed. That’s like eliminating all of the jobs gained in three whole months of 2023.
Overly optimistic employment estimates help explain why polling of people’s perceptions of the economy has been so terrible yet the official data from the Biden administration has looked so robust, at least in terms of the number of jobs. Much of the other data has been downright rotten.
With prices rising faster than earnings, the average worker’s weekly paycheck buys 4.4% less today than when President Biden took office. Homeownership affordability has plummeted because the monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has more than doubled. Three-quarters of Americans now view fast food as a luxury they can’t afford. Gasoline prices are up 46%.
And now, even the job numbers have lost their luster, especially when you consider that millions of those added jobs are from double counting. Whenever someone who is already employed has to get a second — or even a third — job just to help make ends meet, that increases the number of payrolls, without increasing the number of people employed. (read more)
To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, here’s a reminder of SEC Chairman Gensler from last year.
This is the Security and Exchange Commission Chairman.
Posted originally on the CTH on June 19, 2024 | Sundance
One of the reasons why YOU are part of The Last Refuge, is that together we accept things as they are – not as we would prefer them to be.
This means you, me, and the larger CTH community, does not have the ability, nor the desire, to pretend. As a consequence, they, DC, essentially hates us. Hence, you understand the origin of TLR name.
So, summarizing this story today from the video below. {Direct Rumble Link} House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has Biden documents…. 3+ million of them…. that were never on the laptop…. that originated within a 2016 FBI investigation of Burisma Holdings in a semi-related fraud case, that the House Oversight Committee is now is sharing with John Solomon… who is generating a brand-new Tick Tock “BOOM” clock, that can be promoted by Bannon.
Of course, they could just upload the 3,000,000 pages to a public searchable website, and then let people dig, review, share and discover while pouring sunlight on the entire set of events…. But, then again, that might eliminate Solomon’s “tick tock” time on Hannity.
Posted originally on Jun 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
America’s robust consumer economy helped it emerge as a global powerhouse. Nations once stood in line, eager to sell to America as our consumer economy composed over two-thirds of GDP. Grappling with the cost of living crisis and amid a private wave where confidence has been lost, Americans are spending significantly less but are more likely to fall into debt.
Retail sales in May rose only 0.1%, according to new data provided by the Commerce Department, falling short of expectations of a 0.3% rise. April’s figure was revised to show a -0.2% decline in retail sales. These figures are not adjusted for inflation as numbers like words can be used as rhetoric.
American consumers spend more on less. Yet as with every private wave, confidence declines and people begin to hoard. Hoarding is not an option for the average American who lives paycheck to paycheck. I reported that credit card debt is on the rise, increasing by $85.8 billion in Q4 of 2022 alone. The average American household has about $10,000 in credit card debt, marking an 8.9% YoY increase. Now, Americans are facing $1 trillion in credit card debt due to rising APR and inflation. As reported by the Federal Reserve, credit card debt rose $250 billion in the past two years but consumer spending is declining. Separate studies have found that nearly half (46%) of Americans cannot make their monthly credit card payments.
Inflation is hitting everyone. I also reported how the “rich” are experiencing higher rates of credit card delinquencies than ever before.Delinquencies across all tax brackets are exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and the central bank has called this a “trend” that is now “accelerating.” These delinquencies will eventually fall on the banks who are already experiencing a liquidity crisis. Every survey shows that Americans are relying on credit more so now than ever before.
Inflation and socialistic policies have damaged America’s strong capitalistic consumer economy. We have created an enemy out of our top trading partner, China, and the recent round of tariffs are merely the beginning. They say consumer spending is “cooling,” but this is indeed an “accelerating trend.” People are spending money on the basics like food and energy, and the demand for goods is simply not there.
Posted originally on Jun 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg proposed sanctioning China over its support for Russia amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Unlike the West, China has not directly provided countless aid packages to Russia, but China has kept trade open and exchanged technology with Moscow. Stoltenberg believes China must face “consequences” for not aligning with NATO.
The West is theoretically not at war with Russia or China. NATO is on the offensive, completely stepping over boundaries and harassing foreign nations to instigate World War III. Then they tell the public and mainstream media to announce that they are merely protecting their own people from our enemies who have done absolutely nothing to earn such a title.
Under this line of thinking, the NATO alliance could punish anyone who dissents from their global autocratic authority. “Beijing cannot have it both ways. At some point — andunless China changes course — allies need to impose a cost. There should be consequences,” Stoltenberg said at the Wilson Center in Washington. He honed in on China trading microelectronics with Russia that has improved Russia’s satellite proficiencies. China and Russia have agreed to an open partnership, yet China is not involved in this war.
Should NATO also punish India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and others for continuing to trade with Russia? NATO has absolutely no authority to demand that other nations shun Russia from the global economy. They know that these proposed sanctions would not deter China from conducting business with Russia. Instead, these “consequences” will cause China and all other non-NATO nations to back away from trading with the West entirely. Will they do the same to nations who continue to trade with China once they redirect their focus to Taiwan? Will they force “consequences” upon nations who do not support Israel?
The Neocons are decimating the economies of western nations by deterring trade. There is no common sense in the boardrooms as the only objective is to fan the flames of war by any means necessary. China already stepped away from Western trade in a major way and now they are actively provoking China to take retaliatory measures.
NATO has zero reason to back Ukraine on paper as it is not a member. They do not plan to offer Ukraine membership at the upcoming Washington summit, but Stoltenberg said they will place the framework to “build a bridge” to future membership. Stoltenberg congratulated NATO members for contributing more to the alliance this year than ever before. This global force is a danger to civilization itself as it aims to propel us into a global conflict from which there will be no turning back.
Posted originally on Jun 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Biden had the audacity to call Vladimir Putin an “autocrat.” Autocratic governments are often called dictatorships or sometimes autocracies. This is the pot calling the kettle black. The Democrats refused to allow any competitor on the Democratic ticket because they knew Biden would lose. The scene all along has been to draft Hillary in August so she has the honeymoon with the press, and Biden will take the fall in debates with Trump. They do not care and hope he looks really bad. They manipulated the polls just as the British did with BREXIT, trying to inspire people to vote against it because it represented a bunch of losers. The real numbers in the polls for Biden have slipped even below 10%.
Let’s be honest. Biden is a hand puppet. The government is run ALWAYS by the people hiding behind the curtain who are UNELECTED. Even in Europe, the head of the EU, Ursula, NEVER stands for election. She is the hand puppet of the Globalists installed by Klaus Schwab. Europeans have no right to vote for the head of state, but we live in a Democracy?
Yet these people claim to want to start World War III all because Putin is an “autocrat” when they are no different, if not worse!
I know what Dementia is. The judge I had would forget who I even was. Only after numerous appeals and hints that this insane contempt should end did they finally remove the judge. They had no choice. I had gotten into the Supreme Court, and they ordered the government to explain what was going on. The corrupt Court of Appeals reassigned the case to avoid having the Supreme Court rule, for they would have been liable for billions in damages for a 7-year contempt on an 18-month statute where they stole even all the pension funds of our employee’s 401Ks.
We had 240 employees. The court of appeals knew Judge Richard Owen was senile and probably had dementia but protected judges at all costs against the Constitution. ONLY because the Supreme Court was stepping in were they forced to release me. As I said, New York City DOES NOT follow the Constitution. They are the most corrupt court in the land. It took a gang of lawyers to complain that Judge Owen was out of it. Someone like that can sentence you to death, and nobody will do a dam thing.
And we live in an honorable country? As Thrasymachus warned 2500 years ago, JUSTICE is only the self-interest of those in power. And they want to have our boys & girls die in war for their corrupt power?
Posted originally on the CTH on June 17, 2024 | Sundance
It is a very unfortunate situation any time you can easily spot manipulation that is taking place on behalf of hidden interests.
In this example today TPUSA was pushing the results of a poll from this past weekend.
Charlie Kirk and his organization claim that JD Vance won the straw poll of 1,600 attendees to the TPUSA event. However, as quickly identified, the only options presented to the audience were JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum. Somewhat of a self-fulfilling presentation.
Why only four candidates? According to Charlie Kirk and his pollster Richard Baris, those are the final four as determined by them and media.
Something just didn’t smell right. Lots of media articles have other names including Kari Lake, Ben Carson, Vivek Ramaswamy, Lee Zeldin, Michael Flynn, Devin Nunes, Ron DeSantis and many more. So, what exactly was the agenda of TPUSA and by extension, Richard Baris.
Well, for his participatory role, it appears Richard Baris was only a tool who polled the audience based on names Charlie Kirk gave him. Then when you consider that Charlie Kirk had already publicly claimed J.D. Vance was the best choice for vice-president {SEE HERE}, the pre-selected names appeared to be chosen to create a specific outcome, ie “the illusion of choice.”
JD Vance won the TPUSA poll because Charlie Kirk wanted J. D Vance to win the poll. Richard Baris delivered the data to support it by using a pre-filtered candidate list that only included 4 names.
After being called out for the manipulative tactics, their attempts at justification ended up just being silly. [SEE HERE]. The narrative engineering fiasco would be embarrassing and shameful if the issues were not serious.
In the background we have Peter Thiel. In addition to having a lot of money to spend on organizations like TPUSA, Mr. Thiel also supports JD Vance. Thiel is the primary funder of JD Vance, and unfortunately Thiel is also an FBI informant {SEE HERE}.
Oddly, Senator J.D Vance was a vitriolic Never Trumper throughout his time in politics (exceptional hatred for Trump), until Vance had a sudden and mysterious change of heart, which coincided with his financial backer, billionaire Peter Thiel, becoming an FBI operative.
In essence, just as Thiel started working for the FBI, then J.D Vance started to support President Trump…. Coincidence? Go figure.
Now, I tell you this because the unknown question is whether Peter Thiel has funded, or is funding, the TPUSA efforts of Charlie Kirk. Mr. Kirk has sent out tweets praising Mr. Thiel; but neither of them will respond directly to the question.
Because I’m sick and tired of this manipulation, and the background billionaires that operate the opaque machinery… and the people who take their money to do their bidding, while pretending they don’t. And who gets screwed? US, THE VOTERS! Wash – Rience – Repeat
Vivek Ramaswamy and J.D. Vance were college buddies, later funded by billionaire Peter Thiel who is BFF’s with billionaire Elon Musk. Beside their Big Tech relationship, what do Peter Thiel and Elon Musk have in common?…. DHS, IC and FBI activities.
We have already seen the history of placing a VP Mike Pence with Donald Trump just to undermine the MAGA agenda. Now we have an FBI informant, working with a political manipulation effort (TPUSA) to position his asset, JD Vance, into the Pence role for 2024.
And no one wants to admit this is happening, because it might be too uncomfortable to admit.
The bottom line is that this TPUSA poll was purposefully manufactured, created with specific names eliminated, to deliver a very specific outcome. That outcome may or may not matter to anyone; but it’s the manipulation that’s the point.
It is exhausting keeping track of all these fake pretenses, ulterior motives, financial schemes and billionaire agendas.
Go figure.
ps. Dr. Ben Carson or Harriet Hageman would be good considerations.
Posted originally on Jun 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The White House has been usurped by Neocons, who all have personal family ties to Ukraine and Russia and were all Jewish whose families were persecuted during the hatred of the Jews back around 1905. This presents a MAJOR conflict of interest when there is a concerted push to go to World War III, and the West is the instigator. The press mischaracterizes Putin’s warning. Is this where you want to go, as it threatens that he is the aggressor? The mainstream media is so evil anymore; they have abandoned their role as independent journalists. A three-year-old could Google and look up who started this war, and it was Kiev on the command of Victoria Nuland.
Attorney General Merrick Garland is not just a disgrace to his office but a threat to our future. He is clearly a traitor by every possible means, intent on election rigging and interference to ensure that we go to war as decreed by the Neocons who really run the White House. Garland was the chief judge of the D.C. Circuit, which, along with the Second, are the two most corrupt court systems in this country, being highly politically motivated.
Looking closely, you will see a sinister connection between Garland, Victoria Nuland, and Anthony Blinken. In the case of Garland, his mother was Shirley (née Horwitz; 1925–2016), and his father was Cyril Garland (1915–2000). He was raised as a Conservative Jew, and like Victoria Nuland, they, too, changed their family name to hide their background. The family name had been changed from Garfinkel several generations earlier. Merrick’s grandparents left what is now Ukraine, fleeing antisemitic pogroms as was the case with Blinken. Two of his grandmother’s siblings were killed in the Holocaust.
Victoria Nuland is really of Ukrainian Jewish descent. Her family changed their name to try to hide their Jewish ethnic background. She really would be Nudelman, not Nuland. She is actually the daughter of Yale bioethics and medicine professor Sherwin B. Nuland, who changed his surname from Nudelman to Nuland. She retained her family name, Nuland, to perhaps further hide her Jewish/Ukrainian connection by marrying Robert Kagan. Ron Paul plainly wrote: “Victoria Nuland exemplifies the neocons who have led US foreign policy from one disaster to another for the past 30 years while evading accountability.“
Anthony Blinken also has family ties to Ukraine, which also introduces a conflict of interest regarding anything to do with Russia. He was born in 1962, the son of Donald M. Blinken, who was born on November 11, 1925, in Yonkers, New York. Anthony’s Grandfather was Moritz (Maurice) Blinken (1900-1986), who was born in Kiev and married his wife, Ethel Horowitz (1903-1997).
Anthony’s grandfather and mother were of Ashkenazi Jewish descent, which is significantly different from the Spanish Sephardic Jews. All Reform and Conservative Jewish congregations belong to the Ashkenazic tradition. I knew Edmond Safra, who was a Sephardic Jew. His family disapproved of his marriage to Lily because she was an Ashkenazi Jew.
Blinken’s Great-Grandfather Meyer Yankelevich Blinkin (1879 – 1915) was from Kiev, then the Russian Empire who, according to Antony Blinken himself “fled pogroms in Russia” which were a violent riot that was aimed at massacring and expelling the Jews in Kiev in 1905. Meyer fled Kiev when he was 25 years old in 1904. His two grandsons, Alan Blinken and Donald Blinken, served as U.S. ambassadors to Belgium and Hungary, respectively.
Garland’s tenure as attorney general has shown a very serious abandonment of the rule of law for political gain. He was eager to appoint a special prosecutor to tear Trump apart, who has declared he will continue to prosecute Trump through the election and even if he wins. When it came to Biden, Garland reluctantly put in a special prosecutor and then prohibited him from investigating anything to do with kickbacks, his family, and Ukrainian connections.
However, what Garland has done systematically over the past six months has shaken the rule of law to the point foreign nations have lost all faith in the American Justice System, and Biden was a joke at the G7 meeting. Garland’s failure to order a special counsel to look into the extensive evidence of corruption surrounding the Bidens is clearly a biased decision that should warrant his own impeachment for obstruction of justice, which he loves to put others in prison for. The testimony in the Biden impeachment hearing provided ample evidence that Biden lied repeatedly about his knowledge of this corruption and his interaction with these foreign clients.
Garland has been so obvious in his haphazard inconsistency in these investigations. First, Special Counsel Robert Hur found that Biden knowingly retained and mishandled classified material. However, he concluded that Biden’s age and diminished faculties would make him too sympathetic to a jury. It was less sympathetic than pathetic, given that this is the same man who is running for re-election to lead the most powerful nation on Earth. Even more obvious, Garland has not made efforts to reach a consistent approach in the two cases by dropping charges based on the same crimes by Trump in Florida and Biden for the very same act.
Second, Garland has allowed Special Counsel Jack Smith to maintain positions that seem diametrically at odds with past Justice Department policies. This includes Smith’s statement that he will try Trump up to (and even through) the next election. Smith has sought to abuse the law by seeking a sweeping gag order against Trump to deny him free speech protections by gagging Trump from criticizing the Justice Department or Smith. When it comes to Trump, Garland claims Smith is independent but denies that to anyone to investigate the Bidens.
Garland’s most outrageous political act has been the claim of executive privilege to withhold the audiotape of the Hur-Biden interviews. He put Bannon in prison for asserting executive privilege and Smith insists that Trump has none.
The Biden Administration is a hand-puppet, and What is interesting is that Special Prosecutor Smith was a director of investigations for the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, which many are starting to see is also politically compromised by the Neocons.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
While we must first go through some hard times, we will NEVER reform until most people see that this is NOT going in the right direction. It is unbelievable. I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who rose to power from virtually nowhere. People were fed up with the BS of career politicians and the collapse of so many businesses and turned to a fresh face who was not a fascist or even a neo-fascist. She’s a right-wing populist-nationalist of a type who seems to be naive and has been conquered by the Neocon agenda. She is more likely to engulf Italy in World War III, but that seems to be the European Agenda as a distraction from the crisis unfolding, and the Euro is drowning in fiscal mismanagement.
The Italian share market began to crash one week after the turn in the Economic Confidence Model on May 7th. The major resistance stands at the 35000 level, and that is where the bounce effectively hits a wall of resistance. Meloni’s insane comment that Russia will be forced to surrender if the Kremlin does not agree to the terms of peace that the EU dictates to Russia is just unimaginable. According to Meloni, she made this comment during the broadcast of the second plenary session of the peace summit.
“Defending Ukraine means uniting all the efforts of the international community to protect Ukraine. If Russia does not agree to Ukraine’s terms, we will force it to surrender. We need to set the minimum conditions for this discussion.”
Her total lack of experience is precisely what the Neocons have counted on. She has joined the cheerleaders for World War III and the audacity, if not total ignorance, of the fact that it was the West and Kyiv that started this war intentionally to force Putin into World War III so they could conquer Russia and engage in genocide. Ukraine is the MOST disgusting, corrupt, and untrustworthy country on the face of this planet, and they WILL use whatever means to start World War III.
I apologize to those in Rome that I could not stay longer to meet with Meloni, which many wanted to arrange. But based on her recent comments, it is clear that the Neocons would have told her not to meet with me anyway. She has joined the warmongering crowd. I just hope this was not the last time I will ever see the Roman Forum.
These failed leaders, who are clearly incompetent to drive a taxi, are steering the world into World War III. This insane confrontation with Russia appears to be heating up in July. Putin is the ONLY adult in the room. He desperately keeps warning is this where you want to go?
I have always loved Rome. I was surprised at how many restaurants I used to go to have been closed and driven out of business thanks to COVID-19. Sorry to inform Italian readers, but you are headed into a recession, and with Giorgia Meloni taking directions from the Neocons instead of addressing the economic issues, we have the worst crop of leaders in modern history around the globe all hell-bent on creating war. Instead of being neutral, she has thrown Italy into the target zone.
Posted originally on Jun 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you so much for coming to Germany. Your view is always the best, for it is not based, as you say, on personal opinion. I wish the government would listen and inform the politicians to adopt a new way of managing society.
H
ANSWER: Yes, I know what you mean. But as I have always said, after working and meeting with governments worldwide for over 40 years, they prefer to act in their own self-interest, defined as their personal power – not the benefit of the people. This illustration is of the German GDP in the Euro, followed by the timing array, and then expressed in US dollars.
Currency masks the real trends. I try to explain that, but as you know, most people in these meetings cannot grasp the concept. You are not common in government. There needs to be more like you. More than a simple one-dimensional view seems too complicated for them to understand. When I am gone, hopefully, they will be able to take what I have done without prejudice as to who developed it. That’s just the way it goes. They used to say a prophet is never accepted in his own land. Keynes was criticized in the 1920s. Marx was embraced only after he died.
As you can see, German GDP peaked in terms of real international value in 2007 with the Economic Confidence Model, and the Euro peaked in 2008. The high value of the Euro in 2008 reduced exports, and the recession began with that turning point on the ECM. The Pi Target on that wave was the precise day Greece turned to the IMF for a bailout, launching the European Debt Crisis.
German REAL GDP in international value terms will not bottom until 2030. The ECM turning point suggests that Germany is headed into a recession that overall will appear to bottom in nominal terms in 2028, but in real terms, it will extend into 2030.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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