Solar Cycle 24 to Bottom with the Economic Confidence Model 2020


The deep minimum of Solar Cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change has been interesting. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the Solar Cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had a notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity is so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. The Solar Cycle 23 began during April 1996 and had its peak in early 2000/2001. The decline phase thereafter extended from 2002 until December 2009. That was the longest decline phase of any of the previous 23 solar cycles. The overall length of solar cycle 23 extended for a period of 13.5 years from April 1996. As shown on this chart, notice that each cycle has been declining in intensity. Solar Cycle 23 was sharply weaker and what has come in Solar Cycle 24 is even weaker still.

This solar cycle minimum seems to have unusual properties that appear to be related to weak solar polar magnetic fields. The immediate Solar Cycle 24 began during 2009. It was a late starter given the extension of Solar Cycle 23 which interesting was a Pi Cycle extension of 3.14 years. This is true looking at the previous cycles of the 20th and 19th centuries warning that something is indeed unfolding here that is unusual. There are small polar coronal holes appearing which add to the complexity of coronal morphology. Coronal holes are most prevalent and stable at the solar north and south poles, however, these polar holes can grow and expand to lower solar latitudes. It is also possible for coronal holes to develop in isolation from the polar holes, or for an extension of a polar hole to split off and become an isolated structure.

We must pay attention to the fact that this magnetic configuration at the Sun is incredibly different from the one observed during the previous two solar minima periods. Magnetic activity during the years 2006–2009 has been very weak with sunspot numbers reaching the lowest values in about 100 years. This long and extended minimum is characterized by weak polar magnetic fields. We can see that we have been in an extended decline since the 18th century. This rather disturbing when we run correlations with this on the economic trends.

Earth’s atmosphere varies opposite to the solar activity since the cosmic ray particles are deflected by the Sun’s magnetic field to a greater or lesser degree. With increased solar activity (and stronger magnetic fields), the cosmic ray intensity decreases, and with it the amount of cloud coverage, resulting in a rise of temperatures on Earth. Conversely, a reduction in solar activity produces lower temperatures.

Current Solar Cycle 24 has been declining much faster than expected. There is some concern that Solar Cycle 24 might possibly extend as well for the weather has been getting excessively colder in the northern regions. The peak in the cycle arrived during April 2014 reaching an average sunspot number of 82. While the peak value was within the expected range of error for the general forecasts, the maximum occurred significantly lower than the forecasts.

This is the current forecast for Solar Cycle 24. We can see the pink project is the forecast of the industry and it coincides very well with our Economic Confidence Model. I have stated before that I attended a presentation of the data collected from the ice core samples. It revealed a 300-year major cycle in the energy output of the sun. It matched the Economic Confidence Model I constructed from entirely different source data including the monetary history of human activity. I was stunned, for it demonstrated to me that the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states was also in part instigated by climate change. When it turns cold, this is when civilization contracts. The bottom of this immediate ECM is January 2020. The forecast for Solar Cycle 24 will bottom around that same time period.

We are running our models on all the data to come up with our own forecast for Solar Cycle 25, which will take us into the end of this 51.6-year Wave in 2032 and the culmination of the 309.6-year cycle in the ECM. As you can see, Solar Cycle 24 is significantly lower than the Solar Cycle 23. You can see why I moved to Florida. Preliminary findings show that each wave is progressively getting weaker and that may be in line with what we expect in commodity prices as well as what is to come after 2032.

Its Snowing Still now in NewFoundland


 

It is still snowing across the border in Newfoundland, Canada in June. In Wisconsin, there was so much snow during April, it is still there in huge piles in June. Believe it or not, snowfall has still been reported this week in EIGHT states. This is California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, New Hampshire (Mount Washington), and at Mullen Pass, Idaho. This is alarmingly curious. Granted, our computer was forecasting this would be a colder winter than the previous. But this is getting insane. I had to run over to Brussels for meetings in May and I encountered snow in Chicago trying to catch a connecting flight. Even the old Farmers Almanac forecast for 2017–2018 showed generally colder temperatures than last winter for the U.S. and Canada. They too are cyclical based. We have not yet crossed that line of alarming cold weather just yet.

Unfortunately, our computer is forecasting that the winter of 2018-2019 will be much colder than 2017-2018, but it will still not be dramatically colder on a dangerous scale just yet. A large part of the northern United States will experience colder temperatures again so buy some long underwear and keep an emergency supply on-hand. Regrettably, even the South and West should expect to feel cooler than normal weather and that means Florida and the Southeast will also feel a bit chilly with milder-than-average temperatures once again.

We are certainly headed into climate change. Sadly, even if we leave our cars running in the driveway all night, we will not reverse this trend of Global Cooling. We better start looking at reality for the next cycle will be a rise in Agricultural prices due to weather cycles.

Cryptocurrencies Vulnerable to Hackers?


QUESTION: It certainly seems that the cryptocurrency world has its flaws and may even be worse than traditional bank accounts and credit cards. They keep getting hacked. So they are trying to defeat central banks but may be running into the arms of scammers and thieves. I read one guy even claimed Bitcoin would be the new reserve currency. I really do not understand these fools. How can Bitcoin become the reserve currency? Where does this really end?

EP

ANSWER: I really do not know. The dollar is the reserve currency BECAUSE it has a $20 trillion debt that is used globally to park money. Europe never created a single debt market and that is why the euro never managed to compete with the dollar. There is just no way Bitcoin can become the reserve currency. That is really la-la-land. Where does this end? The technology may be absorbed by governments and perhaps you end up with a single electronic currency for each country. As far as circumventing central banks and governments, they can shut it down whenever they want by simply declaring cryptocurrency is for criminals as Australia is trying to do with cash.

With respect to the hacking, well easy come easy go. For the second time in just a few days, hackers launched a raid on a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange. The hackers had captured in one night about €27 million euros, the trading platform Bithumb had to admit. This is number six worldwide in terms of trading volume for cryptocurrencies. Bithumb announced that it would compensate its users.

The prices of most cryptocurrencies fell after the second South Korean incident within a few weeks. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, fell 2% that day. These attacks are starting to wear down the cryptocurrency market, and we may yet see a decline further into July.

30 Years of Global Warming Forecasts all Failed


 

The Wall Street Journal just published a review of the Global Warming Forecasts for the past 30 years. They have not even come close to the scenarios they put forth back in 1988. On June 23, 1988, the then NASA scientist James E. Hansen who helped to start all this nonsense testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. He stated that he expressed had a “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the claimed CO2 induced “greenhouse effect and observed warming.” That is how government characterizes something when they are guessing – “high degree of confidence” which was the same words used to invade Iraq who had weapons of mass destruction. He later came out and said: “Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.” (August 25, 2002). The CIA Director testified before Congress and said: “We said in the estimate with high confidence that Iraq had them.” see Transcript Washington Post). Why does anyone EVER believe those in government? They cannot even forecast GDP accurately when they fudge the numbers.

 

Here is Hansen’s forecast. The dark red overlay is actual surface temperatures reported and there is even a controversy surrounding them that they have been constantly skewed higher to not look like complete idiots.  Even the models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are at least twice the actual temperature by now even with fudged numbers. So why are all these model so exaggerated?

These models are completely VOID of cyclical models and they do not even understand that this is a cycle. They are constructed with same idiotic bases that whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. The Dow Jones Industrials closed 1932 at 60.26 and 1933 at 98.67. That was a 63.7% gain year over year. By assuming that trend will remain in motion, which was his dire forecast, the Dow would have reach 96,433,885,025.00 by 1975. That makes 50,000 look cheap.

Even averaging a 5-year advance VOID of understanding cycles, fails to provide a valid forecast ever. If I take the closing in the Dow of 2009 and the closing of 2014, the average advance was 1479 points per year. Now take the 2014 closing of 17823.07, that gives me 25,218.09. That is fine because we have been in a bull market. We all know the cycle will change. That is what is wrong with the global warming forecasts.

What actually happened, they got $1 billion for research by scaring the HELL out of everyone. I wonder what kind of chart I should make to get $1 billion handed to me from Congress with no performance requirements. What a deal

2032 – How Hard Do We Fall?


 

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

First, I’d like to offer my condolences on your mother’s passing. It feels to me that you must take great satisfaction in the fact that she must have been very proud of your accomplishments, and what you are trying to do for the average person. To me, that is the ultimate goal of a child; in thanking their parents for everything they have done.

Concerning the blog entry of “Crash & Burn & The Sixth Wave”, you write that it all depends upon if we begin the process in 2021. My interpretation – having followed you for years now – is that the people must rise up and push back against higher taxation, and demand reform and/or it could hinge on the Euro breaking apart, which provides the path to follow for the rest of us.

I believe you meant that if the people just acquiesce and do nothing – like in 2008, then those in power continue to run the economy for their benefit, causing the social fabric to continue to be torn apart between 2021-2032, (which means continued record low birth rates, low productivity, record low levels of capex, record suicide rates, etc) until it finally crumbles by 2032, leading to civil unrest. Have I got this right?

Thanks again for everything that you do.

Danny

ANSWER: We have to understand that this will be the third such sequence of the Sixth Wave. At the end of the first sequence, we have civilization going into a Dark Age. That also coincided with the energy output of the sun declining and the massive volcanic eruption of Thera (Santorini), which ended the Minoan culture. That is when Mycenae invaded as well as the conquest of Troy. The last wave peaked in 175.35 AD, and after that we have the political unrest and collapse into 268 AD. I for one have a personal hope that we can avoid that outcome. In both cases, this is when the energy output of the sun dropped into a cold period where the Greeks became the sea people and migrated back to Africa. The second sequence saw the invasion of the barbarians as they moved south and overthrew the Roman Empire. The wall around Rome was not built until 270 AD. If we keep sticking our finger in a light socket and getting zapped, are we unable to learn from experience? The question in my mind is how hard will we land?

This is the cycle, it is NOT my “opinion” and I would prefer to point it out and say we can change the outcome if we understand the causes. There is no stopping the cycle. All I believe we are capable of doing is changing the degree of volatility. This is clearly the end of the West as a world economic power. The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.

Even if we look at the hatred poured on Trump, this is indicative of how civilization collapses. It does not matter if you agree or disagree with Trump. This sort of hatred and the personal attacks, especially led by CNN, is so destructive I fear what comes AFTER Trump. There is absolutely NO POSSIBLE WAY that anyone who would really try to help the situation will come to power. CNN has guaranteed that nobody in the right mind would dare to be president. The only person will be a career politician who will NEVER look at the cycle. Instead, they will fill their pockets before they leave office. CNN loved Hillary. The Clintons stole a couch when they left the White House and had to return it. When you go to a hotel you might take all the soaps, but you do not leave with the bed.

If we do not realize what is happening, then yes, our own complacency will be our doom

Coming Crisis: Emerging Market Debt


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Just to clarify, a continued rate hike in dollars will send Emerging Market debt into chaos and possibly default. Is this both public and private?

Thank you.

You are a voice in the wilderness

PK

ANSWER: Oh yes. Both public and private emerging market debt raised money in dollars. A 2% increase in interest rates could spark a sharp rise in the proportion of emerging market corporate debt issues at risk of default. This is true especially in Brazil, Turkey, and Indi

Merkel Extracted €2.9 billion in Interest from Greece


Angela Merkel promised the German people that she would not just hand Greeks money as she does with the refugee, no, she would make them pay dearly for allowing Goldman Sachs to structure deals to get them in the Eurozone. Indeed, she has kept her word. In response to a parliamentary question from the Green Party, the German government had to release figures which revealed that Merkel has acted more like a loan shark making €2.9 billion in interest payments on Greek bonds since 2010 despite the ECB moving rates negative. Merkel bought Greek government bonds as part of an EU deal to prop up the struggling Greek economy since 2010. The bonds were bought by the Bundesbank and then transferred to the federal treasury.

This certainly gives new meaning to the pictures of Greek citizens paying dearly for the shenanigans of politicians. The Protestant Reformation is where we draw the line with the birth of Capitalism. The reason we draw the line there is because previously, the Catholic Church had forbidden what Merkel has just done – exploit someone when they are down and out. It was called the Sin of Usury. You were supposed to “help” a fellow in his time of need. The Catholics would have been excommunicated if they engaged in banking. The Protestant Reformation was funded by wealthy Catholic merchants who wanted to compete with the Jews and enter the banking field. The Protestant Reformation thus did not adopt the Sin of Usury so Christians became bankers and could borrow as well as lend. That is where the economy began to be leveraged and this Capitalism was born.