Tag Archives: Islamic Republic

Sep 17 2017

Merkel Encountering Rising Violent Protests


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

RE-Posted Sep 17, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Violent protest are starting to rise in Germany against Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel. Keep in mind that Merkel has never won 51% of the popular vote. She rules Europe solely by a coalition. DWN reports that she was confronted with shouts of  “Hau ab!”, whistles and “hatred”. They are appearing with poster reading “Merkel hatsten Deutschland”.  It is unusual for German to engage in such civil unrest.

When Martin Schulz  became the leader of the SPD, it rallied sharply to 31%, which was just one point behind the CDU/CSU at 32% back in March 2017. As people I know in the EU Parliament told me, wait until the Germans get to know Schultz. That threshold seems to have arrived.

CDU/CSU now polls at a staggering 16-point lead with 37% of the popular vote, compared to just 21% for the SNP. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are trailing well behind the main parties at 11%, down from 15% back in January 2017.  However, the AfD is polling well above the five per cent margin required to win seats in Parliament. The party rose to prominence two years ago at the height of the European migrant crisis and the wave of populism that came partly as a result of the influx of refugees into Germany. Therefore, we are looking at the first time since WWII that a far right party even get one seat in Parliament.

The DAX is clearly targeting the week going into the election but the Euro appears to be ignoring the German election.

Chancellor Angela Merkel rules Europe by a grand coalition government in the German Bundestag relying on the FDP. While the CDU will win the majority of seats, it will still not be enough to rule alone. Note that the FDP has taken a sharp drop and the AfD has risen sharply. Therefore, Merkel’s grand coalition is not yet a shoe-in. There will have to be some backroom manipulation to keep the status quo.

Germany has a notoriously very complex voting system for electing its Bundestag, or lower house. The system seeks to combine the benefits of both direct and proportional representation while guarding against the electoral mistakes of German history, which saw political fragmentation during the Weimar Republic between WWI and WWII. While the turnout for the last two election fell sharply to just 70%, this election is far more heated and should see a sharp increase – which is not good for Merkel’s Grand Coalition.

A person casts their vote for two candidates, The German ballot is divided into two columns. The first column is black and the second column in blue, each representing a direct vote for a candidate and then for a political party. Worst still, Germans while on the surface you may be casing a vote with two choices – one for a district representative and one for a party, there is more to it than just that.
The first vote or “Erststimme” for the district representative, follows a first-past-the-post system like elections in the United States. The voter selects his or her favorite candidate to represent their district in the parliament. Every candidate who wins one of Germany’s 299 constituencies – which are divided up per 250,000 inhabitants – is guaranteed a seat.

To fill the other half of the 598 seats in Germany’s Bundestag, voters then cast their ballots in the second vote or “Zweitstimme.” This vote goes to a political party instead of a single candidate. It also determines the percentage each political party gets in the Bundestag.

Now comes the complexity. The ballot also allows voters to split their vote among parties!. So you can split your vote casting one for their local CDU candidate in the first vote, but casting their ballot for the Liberal Democrat FDP in the second vote. This is how Merkel maintains the Grand Coalition.

Therefore, we clearly have the risk of the AfD wining seats for the first time. So while Merkel will most likely still be Chancellor, the mix is going to cause some backroom deals.

Sep 17 2017

Farage at AfD in Germany


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Sep 17, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Nigel Farage Speech at AfD w/Q&A – 8th September 2017

Sep 7 2017

Is the German Election Being Rigged to Save Merkel & EU?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Sep 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The German website Votebuddy is openly looking to match people who have a right to vote but don’t vote with aliens who want to vote but cannot. What this site is promoting in Germany would in the USA be voter fraud. Here it is looking to arrange people for the Bundestag election to ensure Merkel wins. A very interesting twist to rig the election?

Sep 3 2017

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals – Equity v Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

Re-Posted Sep 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in on both sides of the issue concerning the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA. Some totally disagree with me and cite that the law is the law. But there is a historical problem with the rule of law – there are times when the rule of law is unjust. For example, if someone tried to kill you and you defended yourself and killed them, are you a murderer because you killed someone by the strict interpretation of the law?

King’s Bench

Historically, there were two courts in England – the King’s Bench and Chancery. In modern practice, the biggest mistake the Founding Fathers made in the United States was to merge the two into the same court. That is what has given judges unbridled discretion to tear up the constitution any time they desire relying on the ancient powers of Chancery rather than the rule of law.

There is a clear distinction between someone who was brought here as a small child, grew up here, married, and had children with an American and a child sent across the border on their own. The deportation of the former would be a injustice not merely to the child who grew up here and is unfamiliar with the customs of his parent’s origins no less their own children here who are Americans depriving them of a parent. The deportation of the latter would not be an injustice.

Court of Chancery

The most important distinction between law (King’s Bench) and equity, which was administered by the Court of Chancery,  is the set of remedies each offers. The most common civil remedy a court of law can award is monetary damages. Equity, however, enters injunctions or decrees directing someone either to act or to forbear from acting. By the 14th century, the English Court of  Chancery was affording remedies where the strict procedures of the common law worked injustice or could not provide a remedy to a deserving petitioner. The writ of Habeas Corpus was equity – not law. The judges or Chancellors presiding in Chancery were often theological in background yet were also knowledgeable of Roman law and canon law. Over time, a body of rules emerged but they varied from Chancellor to Chancellor and they tended to become more fixed only during the 17th century. The became the system of precedent much like its common-law cousin.

The Court of Chancery assumed a vital role in many areas from false or unjust imprisonment to establishing a framework that the common law could not accommodate. This role gave rise to the basic distinction between legal and equitable interests. However, when one hands discretion to any judge, the net result is always, and without exception, the progression of corruption. By the 19th century, the Court of Chancery was hopelessly corrupt and as such, so was the United States Federal courts because the Founding Fathers merely this discretion with the rule of law and as such there can be no rule of law that is consistent in the United States.

The distinction of a child who grew up here and married an American and one that was recently pushed across the border is of tremendous importance. To deport the former will deprive children of their parent. This is what Chancery was for at the beginning. Unfortunately, we no longer have a court of real chancery nor do we have a court of law. The federal Judiciary is a corrupt system incapable of honoring either the law or equity.

In 1853, Bleak House was written by Charles Dickens, in which he describes how corrupt Chancery became during the 19th century. He concluded, “Suffer any wrong that can be done you rather than come here!” That was a sad statement of what had become of honor, dignity, and justice. We have reached that same point in American history where there is nothing left.

” On such an afternoon some score of members of the High Court of Chancery bar ought to be–as here they are–mistily engaged in one of the ten thousand stages of an endless cause, tripping one another up on slippery precedents, groping knee-deep in technicalities, running their goat-hair and horsehair warded heads against walls of words and making a pretence of equity with serious faces, as players might. …  This is the Court of Chancery, which has its decaying houses and its blighted lands in every shire, which has its worn-out lunatic in every madhouse and its dead in every churchyard, which has its ruined suitor with his slipshod heels and threadbare dress borrowing and begging through the round of every man’s acquaintance, which gives to monied might the means abundantly of wearying out the right, which so exhausts finances, patience, courage, hope, so overthrows the brain and breaks the heart, that there is not an honourable man among its practitioners who would not give–who does not often give–the warning, “Suffer any wrong that can be done you rather than come here!”

Sep 3 2017

Macron wants a Federal Budget for All of the Eurozone


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Sep 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron is coming out arguing for the total federalization of Europe proposing that there should be a budget for the Eurozone of hundreds of billions of euros. Macron’s position is that this budget should represent several points of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Eurozone. It should be possible, Macron said, to collect money together in the markets and “allocate it with sufficient force” for all.

He also has made it clear that the GDP of all euro area countries was €10.7 trillion in 2016 according to Eurostat. He makes it clear that the Eurozone is far too restrictive in its budget policy when compared with the policies of China, Russia or the United States. He has made it clear that this is the cause of the high unemployment in Europe among the youth.

France has very high unemployment as is the case in most Eurozone countries. The debt of the Eurozone countries has escalated and as in France there is a growing gap between expenditure and tax collection. Some fear that the creation of such a common euro budget will lead to even more government debt as countries pump out debt to try to stimulate their economies.

Macron is correct that there is a huge problem that is eating away at the Eurozone. The restrictive policies are because of Germany’s fear of inflation that they went through during the 1920s. They wrongly attribute inflation to the increase in money supply and ignore the fact that it was a collapse in confidence given the 1918 revolution led by Communists in Germany.

Macron wants to push forward with his proposals for a further development of the monetary union after the German Bundestag election. Merkel will certainly not entertain any such proposal before the election. Still, Macron is way off the mark. Increasing the spending and debt with rising taxes will still fail to reverse the economic decline. The Eurozone must be restructured or it cannot survive.

Aug 31 2017


When Will People Learn Career Politicians Are Anti-Democracy

Blog/France

Posted Aug 31, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

It is amazing that people keep voting for career politicians every time and then are dissatisfied every time. Now Reuters is reporting that most French voters are now dissatisfied with Emmanuel Macron’s performance. The latest poll shows a sharp decline for Macron who won a landslide. The poll revealed that Macron’s “dissatisfaction rating” has risen to 57%, from 43% in July.

Aug 24 2017

Macron Moves to Restore French Colonial Power


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted Aug 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

France has proposed setting up camps inside Libya in order to control the migration flows.  Macron has acted alone once again illustrating that the EU design fails.  Macron is once more pursuing the objectives of a neo-colonial power restoring France to its former glory not unlike Putin. Macron wants to control Libya settling in the area taking control of the country thereby extending its sphere of influence to restore its former colonial glory to the Maghreb and also sub-Saharan Africa.

Macron is acting unilaterally with no regard for the interests of the rest of Europe or the Mediterranean countries. This is the problem with the entire EU project. Merkel unilaterally opened the doors to all of Europe to the refugees to save her personal falling polls. Now we have Macron attempting to restore the colonial power of France over Northern Africa also without consulting anyone.

It is bad enough that there is no democratic process inside Europe where all Europeans could vote in Germany on September 24th regarding Merkel, yet she is the dominant politicians that controls the lives throughout Europe. This is either one country like the United States and you surrender national power to Brussels, or you terminate Brussels and reduce the EU to simple a trade agreement. You cannot have it both ways.

Aug 21 2017

Erdogan Tells Turks in Germany to Vote Against Merkel


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Aug 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

While the Democrats want to make a huge issue out of Russia hacking their files and releasing evidence that they were truly corrupt and how Clinton was just a liar blaming Russia rather than themselves, interference in the elections of other countries is par for the course. I have reported how Obama has interfered in Canada, Britain, and France. This is standard operational procedure. Now Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan publicly told all Turks living in Germany to vote against Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats on September 24th.

For Erdogan to publicly try to influence the German elections as Obama did in Britain tell them to get to the  ‘back of queue‘ if they voted for BREXIT, demonstrates the lack of unity between the NATO allies and major trade partners.

Ties between Ankara and Berlin have been strained in the aftermath of last year’s failed coup as Turkish authorities have sacked or suspended 150,000 people and detained more than 50,000 people, including German nationals. Erdogan’s response has been to Merkel’s voiced concern that he has used the coup as a pretext to quash dissent in Turkey. Erdogan has adopted a clear authoritarian role for himself trying to tie it to the roots in political Islam. Erdogan has accused Merkel of being anti-Turkish and anti-Muslim. He pronounced:

“I am calling on all my countrymen in Germany: the Christian Democrats, SDP, the Green Party are all enemies of Turkey. Support those political parties who are not enemies of Turkey,” 

“I call on them not to vote for those parties who have been engaged in such aggressive, disrespectful attitudes against Turkey, and I invite them to teach a lesson to those political parties at the ballot box.” 

The tensions between Germany and Turkey are on a crash course between 2018 and 2020.

Aug 21 2017

Angela Merkel is being Called a Traitor for the Refugee Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

RE-Posted Aug 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The EU has abandoned Italy while simultaneously demanding that the refugees must be taken care of. Nearly 100,000 refugees have arrived in Italy since the start of this year alone. The Italian government cannot cope with the refugee crisis and Brussels said they cannot exempt them from the restraint of busgets. That means that money for Italians must be diverted to the refugees and they keep coming.

Italy is being pushed to the limit and cannot possible cope with this burden alone while Brussels refuses to compensate them. Let any country refuse to accept refugees and Brussels is quick to condemn them, but wont pay for them itself.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is solely responsible for the refugee crisis. She is starting to be greeted with shouts of “traitor” by discontent German protesters. Nevertheless, Merkel continues to defend her decision to allow hundreds of thousands of refugees into the Germany.

Merkel only received 16,233,642 votes during the 2013 election which was  37.2% of the popular vote of Germany. So the majority of Germans are really not supporting Merkel. Because they get to form collation governments, that someone who received less that any President in the political history of the USA gets to run Euorpe. Even Donald Trump won  46.1% of the American popular vote. So someone who would never get into office under the USA system gets to dominate Europe.

Aug 20 2017

Barcelona Terrorist Attack – Is Europe Lost?


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Aug 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Barcelona, one of the most beautiful cities in Europe, was the target of the Islamic State in their latest terrorist attack to kill people on a wholesale basis. Spain has now mounted an all out sweeping anti-terror operation after an Islamist militant drove a van into crowds in Barcelona, killing 13 people and possibly injuring 100 before fleeing, in what police suspect was one of multiple planned attacks.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the deadly attack along the city’s most famous avenue on Thursday, which was packed with tourists taking an afternoon stroll. Police said they had arrested two men, a Moroccan and a man from Spain’s north African enclave of Melilla.

Meir Bar-Hen, the Jewish Barcelona Barrister, said the Jews in Spain should not repeat the mistake of the Jews in Algeria or Venezuela: “Go ahead rather than too late.” Bar-Hen urged the Jews Spain to buy and emigrate land in Israel: “I tell my church: We are destined to perish. Europe is lost. “

This refugee crisis in Europe has been the greatest mistake perhaps in modern history. It is one things to set up camps and help people displaced by war. It is totally different to open your doors and let single men in hiding among women and children.