Interest Rates & the Fed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Feb 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark by 25 bps, as expected. The Fed fully understands that the manipulation of the CPI is a necessary aspect both for containing government benefits and understating inflation also results in high tax revenues. The market loves hope, and as a result, they focused on the warning that we’ll be in restrictive territory for just a bit longer. Most still believe that there will be a slowdown in inflation just ahead.

The Fed’s cautionary commentary saying that the “disinflation process” has started triggered shares to jump ending up 1%. This shows how insane the analysis had become that they cheer a recession and think that lower interest rates are bullish for the stock market. Obviously, they just listen to the talking heads on TV and have never bothered to look at reality. When interest rates decline, so has the stock market. Interest rates rose for the entire Trump Rally, and they crashed during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. For the life of me, I just shake my head when the talking heads cheer lower rates and spread doom and gloom with higher rates.

Gallup Poll – Gov’t is Our Greatest Problem


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Gallup has just confirmed what our computer has been forecasting especially since 2011. The majority of Americans now say that a lack of leadership from President Biden and Congress is the country’s biggest problem and that means the entire world. Perhaps aliens should have a right to vote for the decisions of the Biden Administration are destroying lives around the world.

The Gallup Poll shows that it is the collapse of confidence in a government that is now viewed as the greatest threat even more so than inflation, ​the immigration crisis, and the state of the economy. Despite Americans suffering economically with higher taxes and inflation reducing the standard of living, they have cited that “the government/poor leadership” is now in the No. 1 spot taking that place from inflation over the past year. Gallup has reported that 21% of Americans name our incompetent government as the “most important problem facing this country today​” compared to the 15% who said so last year, a Gallup Poll found.

​Inflation and the economy ​came in last year as the top two issues — tied at 16% each — followed by the government (15%), immigration (8%), and unifying the country (6%). ​However, over the past year, Americans’ concerns with the economy fell 6% to 10%, with ​inflation falling one point to 15%, and immigration rose 3 points to 11%.

Just wait until they realize that the Biden Administration is so incompetent, it has allowed the Neocons to wage World War III on two fronts – China and Russia. These people will destroy Western Civilization and that is what 2032 is all about.

Fox News – “ominous Great Depression warning”


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told.  Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes.  Therefore, they conclude that our standard of living has been rapidly declining.  The number reveals that more than one-third of all U.S. young adults are being supported in part by their parents. Thanks to COVID, this disrupted society far greater than anyone is reporting. In addition to the shortages because of the lockdowns, by the end of 2020, more than half of young adults in America were living with one or both parents. That statistic actually exceeded the record high of the Great Depression.

Here is the worst part of this analysis. Many are jumping on the bandwagon claiming that the decline in real disposable income has been the largest since 1932 and therefore, this is a warning sign of a Great Depression is coming. They seem to be focused on the fact that the GDP report showed a significant decline in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. Now let’s look closer!

First of all, the entire reason why unemployment rise to 25% during the latter part of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Why? At that time, about 40% of the civil workforce was still agrarian. The Dust Bowl meant job loss. If you could not even plant crops, there was no need for people to pick crops.

Service during the Great Depression accounted for 17% of the workforce compared to 44%+ today. Government, federal, state, and local, was 22% of the civil workforce during the Great Depression compared to 33% by 1980. Things have continued to evolve and by 2019, services represent 79.41%. Agriculture is now a tiny fraction of what it once was – 1.41%.

In the USA, at the state level, their share of the civil workforce varies greatly. Florida is at about 11.3% compared to New Mexico which is 22.5% – a government employee’s paradise. The lowest is Michigan at 10.1%.

During the Great Depression, the entire reason for the collapse in disposable income was the collapse in agriculture which created a collapse in income due to massive unemployment. That is totally different from the crisis we have today.

Here we have rising prices due to shortages and then central banks raising interest rates in a fool’s quest to stop inflation when it is not based on speculation. Moreover, the biggest borrower is the government, and rising interest rates will only increase their exposure to keep rolling over the debt. Therefore, governments have been borrowing year after year. What happens when the public no longer buys their debt? Real disposable income has been collapsing for completely different reasons since 1932. Here we have the costs of everything rising and then these people want war with Russia and China. Every war since the start of recorded history has resulted in inflation. Add to this, the total insanity of trying to end climate change by outlawing fossil fuels at a time when the climate is prone to getting colder.

We are already witnessing riots around the world BECAUSE of inflation. During the Great Depression, people were suffering from DEFLATION. So comparing just that statistic of a decline in personal income and projecting we now face a Great Depression, does not even qualify to be classified as analysis. That is no different from someone warning that carrots must be lethal because everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has obviously died.

Austria & Hungary Refuse to give Weapons to Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The people who are pushing for World War III attack anyone who tells the truth about Ukraine is suddenly a “Putin Supporter” when in fact they are the new merchants of death who have no regard for human civilization or history. I have dealt with every country surrounding Ukraine including Ukraine. ALL OF THERE NEIGHBORS say the same thing – beware of Ukrainians.

Austria and Hungary have come out and refused to send weapons to Ukraine. Hopefully, when this turns really ugly, their countries may be spared. Ukraine is filled with Nazis and their hatred for Russians knows no limit. NATO troops are already there without a formal declaration of war. If they die in battle, Ukrainians are choppy off their heads and hands so they cannot be identified which would expose NATO’s involvement.

I have warned that the West is the aggressor and have once again lied to the people. Zelensky stood up on February 23rd, and stated to the world that Ukraine would arm itself with nuclear weapons. Putin made a speech to the Russian people that night and launched the invasion the next day. VP Harris at the Munich Security Counsel bluntly told Ukraine to join NATO. Then Merkel admitted that the Minsk Agreement which was to allow the Donbas to vote on their own independence was a sham only to buy time for Ukraine to build an army to start World War III.

I reported that Ukraine had lost nearly 50% of its army. That was classified information from the Ukrainian side. I got emails saying, of course, that was Russian propaganda. The head of the EU stated that same figure at first and then had to take it out because Zelensky did not want his people to know the death toll.

Zelensky stood before Congress and bragged that his propaganda machine defeated Russia and had won the minds of the West, which only proved this is really a war to destroy Russia. Zelensky was an actor with no experience in anything else. He was put in place for this role. He has been doing everything to create World War III – that’s his real job.

Any world leader who gives 10 cents to Ukraine should be thrown out of office forthwith!

Elon Musk Invited Me to Twitter HQ & It’s Worse Than You Can Imagine | Direct Message | Rubin Report


The Rubin Report Posted of Rumble on: Jan 30, 11:00 am EST

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about his secret meeting with Elon Musk at the Twitter HQ where he met with Twitter engineers and learned why the shadow banning issue is far worse than anyone imagined; the performance of Finnish transgender figure skater Minna-Maaria Antikainen; his first person account of how insane the California homeless problem has gotten; why Mayor Suarez’s policies in Miami are luring so many people from California and New York to Florida; White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre proving that the Biden administration seems to put diversity and inclusion above competence; CNN’s Dana Bash reading Rep. Ilhan Omar’s antisemitic remarks to her face while she plays dumb; Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford telling “60 Minutes’” Lesley Stahl that childhood obesity has very little to do with diet and exercise; Kathy Hochul doubling down on firing unvaccinated workers even as a nursing shortage is sparking a call to rehire the fired healthcare workers; Bill Gates now agreeing with critics of the COVID vaccine about it’s limits; Project Veritas founder James O’Keefe being attacked by Pfizer director Jordan Tristan Walker; Jordan Peterson telling Joe Rogan his thoughts on the Davos agenda coming out of the World Economic Forum and why the WEF’s climate change policies could be a disaster for the poor; and much more.

Job Posting for New Head of Digital Currency UK Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jan 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Head of Central Bank Digital Currency
HM Treasury
Apply before 11:55 pm on Tuesday 7th February 2023
Key Accountabilities

The successful candidate will be responsible for leadership of HM Treasury’s work on a potential digital pound – a UK central bank digital currency (CBDC). This work is important, complex and cross-cutting, and the leadership will involve extensive engagement across and beyond HM Treasury.
Digital innovation is changing the landscape for payments and money. The use of physical money is declining while new forms of private sector digital money are emerging. These changes offer exciting opportunities for UK businesses and consumers, but also present new challenges and risks. This has motivated countries around the world to explore digital versions of central bank money.

Today, the Bank of England issues only physical bank notes. A digital pound would be a new form of digital money for use by households and businesses issued directly by the Bank of England.

Treasury and the Bank of England are working together through the CBDC Taskforce to explore the case for a digital pound. Treasury and the Bank of England have committed to consult jointly on a potential digital pound, and the successful candidate will lead the Treasury team in the wake of the consultation’s issuance, including working with the Bank of England to consider consultation responses. The forward timeline for the work has been set out by Ministers and the Bank of England, and the successful candidate will be responsible for setting strategic direction within Treasury to deliver on that plan.

Military Surveillance Critics During COVID


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jan 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Evidence is surfacing that the military was engaged in domestic surveillance in Britain as well as Canada of anyone who was a critic of the COVID lockdowns. It is very clear that there was no historic precedent whatsoever for locking down all of society for a virus that was not even lethal beyond the normal flu virus. All the data coming out on the fatalities and injuries surrounding the vaccines is another issue altogether.

There, the conspiracy theories have suggested that Pfizer has been behind a plot to actually reduce the population which has been a pet project of Bill Gates. It certainly does not do well for society as a whole when our fearless leaders hand absolute immunity to Pfizer to actually kill or maim as many people as they desire all because they did not take the time to really test their vaccines. I choose not to be vaccinated simply because once the government got involved by mandating, there was something seriously wrong and I have spent enough time behind the curtain I know politicians earn a couple hundred grand a year but manage to retire as multi-millionaires. Once the government gets involved, never trust anything. They do not prosecute themselves.

As far as the surveillance is concerned, they have no doubt assembled lists of those of us who resist the tyrannical decrees of the government. Those who resist being mindless drones are a threat to the survivability of the government. Hence, the lockdowns were a perfect way to sort out those who have a brain, and others who are just gullible and think the government is the adult version of Santa Claus. We are all on some secret list, that much we can count on. It has never been a Government of the People, but a Government Against the People as history has always shown for 6,000 years. It’s just all part of 2032.

Australian Aid Worker/Mercenary in Ukraine Gives Different Account of War, Russian Success Against Western Alliance and Chinese Assistance


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 30, 2023 | Sundance

Several people have sent this video interview requesting opinion.  The video reflects an interview between two Australians.  The interviewer is a podcaster the person being interviewed explains his background on the ground in Ukraine as “officially” an “aid worker,” however, what he describes is more like a mercenary.

The interview is rather lengthy and starts at 02:13 with a question about what is happening in Bakhmut in the Eastern Ukraine fighting battlefield.  The unknown Australian merc in the interview describes the Russians overwhelming the Ukraine forces in most battles.  The Ukrainian military units have made several strategic mistakes that have played into the hands of the more capable Russian forces.

The main Russian element being described is the Wagner group who are well known to be brutal and strategic special force fighters.  The interview is from a pro-Ukraine, pro-western alliance perspective.  However, in the bigger picture the Ukraine military units are being ground down by attrition, despite the massive amount of aid being delivered by NATO allies.  The description is a rather brutal assessment of the devastation created by horrific modern warfare.  WATCH:

.

Summary: Ukraine not winning. Wagner PMC/Russian tactics and technology vs. Ukraine. Chinese tech advisors helping Russians. Non-existant Medi-vac. Western Military Aid Stolen 60% off the top 40% sold on black market. Russian Artillery Domination. Ukrainian Officers Incompetence. Ukrainian Soldiers Lack Basic Equipment.

Military Script – Has it Been Used for Centuries?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies Re-Posted Jan 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Limes denarius (Lim-ace) or coins of the borders, may be another example of coins of necessity issued because of a shortage of silver in the border regions. It has also been suggested that they may also be officially sanctioned issues for use in regions where political unrest made it hazardous to ship large amounts of silver. Others have suggested that they were used to pay barbarians on the fringes of the empire for local work.

The most likely reason for their issue is based upon history repeats because human nature and its decision process will lead to the same conclusion no matter what the century. Therefore, it also remains possible that these were military scripts paid to soldiers on the front lines just as they did during World Wars I and II to pay locals. They would have reduced the need for vast amounts of precious metals on the front line. These bronze issues of denarii could have served troops on the front and been redeemable for good coinage when they returned to the stable regions. Whatever the reason, many of these coins exist. They have been often viewed as possibly “coins of necessity” issued during periods of a lack of silver. Some examples may still bear traces of a very thin silver wash.

A “Limes Denarius” were struck from official dies. Thus, these AE denarii official issues use the same dies as those intended for the silver denarii. However, there are also some that appear to be cast from typical clay forgers’ dies and sometimes may have been cast in molds. There are no written accounts of this practice within the official monetary system. However, if troops are paid with real money and they lose a battle, the opponent will then seize whatever money they had and use it to further fund their operations. If the soldiers only have a military script, then there is no financial benefit to the opponent if they should defeat your troops.