Build-to-Rent Communities Grow in Popularity


Posted Jun 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

BuildtoRentHomeStarts2022

You will own nothing. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) have grown in popularity in recent years. America has recently imported a concept stemming from across the pond in the UK to pacify housing fears. Build-to-rent (BTR) communities are becoming a common development as the majority of Americans struggle to either afford or find housing.

Around 23% of Americans own property. YouGov conducted a poll that found that 60% of Americans believe the old model whereby 30% of one’s income would equate to affordable housing. That is simply not possible for over a quarter of Americans who spend far more than 30% on their mortgages. Almost half (49%) of renters spend 30% or more on shelter, while 19% spend over half of their take-home pay to the landlord. According to the survey, 46% of homeowners are worried about making their monthly mortgage payments, compared to 69% of renters.

Build-to-rent communities usually mimic a typical suburbia rather than an apartment complex. Amenities and property management is often included, which is why this concept was once reserved for retirees and the aging population. This is a deal for investors who may purchase homes within the development communities. They are usually priced higher than typical rentals as the home is within a more desirable community with stable tenants and a lower turnover. As for the tenants, they are not gaining any equity and are forgoing a valuable asset.

Fixr reported that build-to-rent communities are set to grow within the next two years based on data from the NAHB but will remain somewhat stagnant in 2023 due to massive growth in recent years. Over 119,000 homes using this model were built in 2022, marking a 50% increase from 2018. In the last five years, Charlotte, NC, experienced a 621% uptick in built-to-rent communities, followed by Jacksonville, Florida (353%), Greenville, South Carolina (265%), while Phoenix, Arizona, experienced a 280% uptick.

The younger generation, who want to begin expanding their families but cannot afford to own them, is primarily attracted to these growing complexes that provide the feel of homeownership without the asset. Everyone needs a place to live. Families, especially with young children, do not tend to move around as often with school zoning and other aspects. Homeownership and the traditional American dream of the house with the white picket fence have been transformed.

Tucker Carlson Interviews El Salvador President Nayib Bukele – “Western Civilization is Failing”….


Posted originally on the CTH on June 6, 2024 | Sundance

Tucker Carlson traveled to El Salvador to interview President Nayib Bukele about his ongoing efforts to eliminate corruption, crime, criminal gang activity and get rid of MS-13 gangs.

President Bukele initially used nationalized military to target criminal gangs and remove them from the streets. The social change, the outcome within the country, was stunning and fast. What was once the most violent crime ridden country, literally the murder capital of the world, changed in a few months and peace returned. President Bukele easily won reelection and Tucker Carlson traveled to hear his story. WATCH:

Chapters of Video:
0:00:00 Intro
0:04:47 Bukele’s Formula to Save El Salvador
0:09:50 The Satanic Side of MS-13
0:16:28 Bukele’s 3-Point Economic Plan
0:28:41 Is Western Civilization Dying?
0:50:10 Will Donald Trump Get Elected?
0:56:09 Bukele’s Advice to Trump
1:00:03 Americans Moving to El Salvador

Fed President Says Americans Would Prefer a Recession to Inflation


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Fed Ship in STorm

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.

“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.

3 faces of Inflation Dragon

Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.

“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.

CPI Formula

Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.

Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.

The Economic Decline of Europe With Rising Interest Rates?


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Via Veneto

I have returned from a two-week tour of Europe covering the UK, Germany, and Italy. Europe is in dire straights. I have stayed on the Via Veneto since my parents took me back in 1964/65. It was the 5th Avenues of Rome. The street was lined with sidewalk cafes. Out of probably 30, only three remained. There was once a restaurant that overlooked Trajan’s Forum that I ate with my parents back then. Ever since then, I have eaten dinner there for over 40 years. This time, it too was gone.

The damage that COVID unleashed by stupid politicians listening to people like Fauci and self-anointed experts at various universities in London, has undermined the European economy dramatically. Then throw in the nonsense of NET ZERO climate change and comingle that with the insanity of the American Neocons who blew up Nord Stream, imposed sanctions on Russia that have backfired on Europe. It is understandable why European political leaders are beating the war drums for they desperately need a distraction. War has historically been the best distraction from domestic civil unrest.  Otherwise, the people will storm their palaces and drag them out to the streets in old fashion revolutions for their sheer stupidity, belligerence, and incompetence.

Assassination

All governments become arrogant and die by their own hand from domestic strife. Like Rome, the barbarians could only successfully invade when the politicians had weakened Rome’s economy. History repeats because humanity never learns. We see the West already deeply divided. This unprecedented attack on Donald Trump began from the very day that he announced he would run for President. They do not like outsiders. Politicians have been schooled in how to send people to war to die and never think twice about the children growing up without a parent. You must be dehumanized to be a head of state, no different from the head of a Pharmaceutical company that can sleep at night knowing some people will always die from a vaccine. Still, they focus on the majority – never the collateral damage.

Haraguchi Kazuhiro

Kazuhiro Haraguchi, the former Japanese Minister for Internal Affairs, has become the first major politician to apologize to the unvaccinated for the tsunami of deaths occurring among the vaccinated population. There has been a major protest, with serious numbers of Japanese citizens taking to the streets demanding action against the crimes against humanity perpetrated by globalist organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) during the pandemic. There is NO data available as to the long-term effects of MNRA vaccines.

Since people like Bill Gates proclaim that MNRA will bring the cost of vaccines down to $2 to maximize profits, they have successfully destroyed all the benefits of vaccines created over the past 200 years. This is playing into our computer projection for the population decline. Maderna is bragging how they have blended COVID-19 with the Flu Shot. This is just an instance, and governments are up for sale to the highest bidder.

China Holdings of US Debt

Usually, when you enter a recession, interest rates decline because people stop investing and begin to save for a future that is uncertain. However, our brilliant Neocons have been trying to create World War III and they have yet to win a single war they have launched since World War II. Threatening China over Taiwan may sound noble in the headlines and on CNN, but China has been the largest holder of US debt. It is now declining in CRASH MODE, and rightly so. You do not lend money to your enemy who wants to kill you.

China sold $53 billion during the first quarter of 2024, and it continues to be a net seller. With Biden spending like a drunken sailor, governments default when they are involved in these Ponzi schemes and are unable to sell new debt to pay off the old. China is in a 14-year decline, and rightly so. This means that the US Treasury will need to find other buyers for its debt, and in the process, rates will rise more than keep beating the war drums.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

The recession began in the USA and will be hardest felt in Europe. Today, Buden was forced to close the border. He was getting plummeted by fellow Democrats ahead of the election. The Sanction of Russia and Biden’s recent decree to cut off all energy from Russia will fulfill what our computer has forecasted: that we are looking at STAGFLATION, meaning economic growth declines. Still, inflation continues to rise due to shortages and the most brain-dead people in the White House, probably in US history.

Here are the timing arrays for the UK and the core of the European economy – Germany. We are in a declining mode into 2026, and waging war to retain power may look good on paper, but they will not be able to blame Putin for everything. It is down and dirty from here on out.

Germany GDP Y 6 4 24
Britain UK GDP Y 6 4 24

Land of the Free Home of the Brave – Void when Neocons Prohibit It


Posted Jun 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: Marty, please post this on the public blog and not the private. Everyone would know that all the major intelligence agencies read you because they all know Socrates has been incredible in its geopolitical forecasting that is unmatched anywhere. After you returned home across the pond, I believe the chatter is that some are now questioning Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s position. You are far more of a champion than even you think. There are those listening to Socrates’s statement that the West will lose. They know Socrates forecasted the fall of communism in 1989, the USSR in 1991, and the Russian bond collapse in 1998. Nobody can do that from personal opinion.

Please, please, post this on the public blog. People have to support you to at least make it to 2032.

Anonymous

T Shirt Land of Free

REPLY: I hope you are right. When I returned, as soon as the Customs Agent looked at the screen on me, she said come with me and took me off to a private room to be searched. They detained me for only about 30 minutes, and I was released. I was not allowed to call anyone or use my phone. That has never happened before. So, I guess I have the Neocons to thank for that delay.

Everyone would be writing to their Congressman and Senator to demand an investigation into HOW directed the “appointed” government of Ukraine to start this civil war. I believe it was Victoria Nuland et al. She was the one on the ground, and it was her husband who started the claims that Trump would be a dictator because his wife has been in every administration EXCEPT that of Trump. It is time for the truth to be revealed for the world to see.


Many have asked if they can buy this shirt we handed out at our WEC a few years back. We do not have any. Given the unfolding events, we will look into the possibility of making up a batch.

New Mexican President – Mrs Claudia Sheinbaum Wins Large Electoral Victory Keeping AMLO’s Morena Party in Power


Posted originally on the CTH on June 3, 2024 | Sundance

Claudia Sheinbaum doesn’t exactly sound like a Mexican name (lol), but with around 60% of the vote Mrs Sheinbaum is now the new president of Mexico.  Sheinbaum becomes the first woman president of Mexico and the first Jewish leader of a predominantly Catholic nation.

Sheinbaum and current President AMLO are reportedly close political allies, and both represent the Morena party. The outcome of the election appears to have positioned the Morena party for a considerable set of legislative victories, perhaps giving them a super majority.  In large part this outcome was driven by the working-class and lower income group who strongly support AMLO.

Keep in mind that AMLO was/is essentially a soft-socialist with a strong nationalist streak.  The financial markets do not like the nationalistic aspect to AMLO; Wall Street prefers a multinational corporate politician and a more fascist policy system that is easier to purchase by corporations.  The other aspect that put AMLO on the opposite side of the multinationals was his traditional energy policy (cheap and abundant oil and gas).

It seems that Claudia Sheinbaum carries a political outlook similar to AMLO, with the exception of the energy policy.  Sheinbaum is more of a climate change, green new deal, renewable energy politician.   Sheinbaum’s energy policy outlook gives Suspicious Cat a reason to consider that U.S. IC interests may have put a finger on the scale of the Mexican election.

MEXICO – […] After thanking voters for their support, Sheinbaum emphasized the historical moment. “For the first time in 200 years of the Republic, I will become the first woman president of Mexico,” she told supporters.

“We have achieved a plural, diverse and democratic Mexico,” Sheinbaum said. “Although many Mexicans do not fully agree with our project, we will have to walk in peace and harmony to continue building a fair and more prosperous Mexico.”

Her party, Morena, is expected to have a majority in the legislature, according to projections by the electoral agency. Such a majority would allow her to approve constitutional changes that have eluded current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. (read more)

Considering that AMLO was not in alignment with Joe Biden, this transition will be interesting to watch play out….

CTH will keep repeating the words, WATCH MEXICO.  Ever since Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador confronted Joe Biden in the oval office about energy policy, things have increasingly escalated.

Remember, Mexico did not join the Build Back Better suicide mission, or the sanctions against Russia.

Keep in mind, it wasn’t just President Trump who blocked the migrants and secured the U.S. southern border, it was AMLO using 50,000+ active military to stop the migration flow of illegal aliens. It’s not a surprise that AMLO is letting the caravans flow to the border, while Biden is trying to undermine the Mexican government.

Remember, the U.S. intelligence community are conducting operations in Mexico; be leery of any headline stories coming out of the country.  AMLO already called out the U.S. and Samantha Power for trying to influence Mexican politics.

MEXICO CITY, May 3 2023 (Reuters) – Mexico’s president asked his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden to stop the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) from funding groups hostile to his government, according to a letter presented to journalists on Wednesday, echoing previous Mexican criticism of U.S. interventionism.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador did not specify which Mexican groups the U.S. should stop funding, but he has in the past accused several media organizations of being part of a conservative movement against his government.

“The U.S. government, specifically though USAID, has for some time been financing organizations openly against the legal and legitimate government I represent,” he said in the letter. “This is clearly an interventionist act, contrary to international law and the relations which should prevail between free and sovereign states.”

The letter calls for Biden’s intervention, saying the U.S. State Department in recent days announced that USAID would increase its funding toward such organizations. (read more)

The Problem with K-Waves


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

K Wave MAA

All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.

If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.

KONDRATF

There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.

The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.

Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.

Commodities Trade Differently


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Wheat1220 1375

All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.

Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.

Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.

WheatWholesaleWWI

War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.

GOLD1560to1991

Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.

Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.

Does an Increase in the Money Supply Lead to Inflation?


Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Supply Demand

The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.

Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.

When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.

Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.

Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.

Steve Bannon’s Explosive Rant: Conservative Leaders Lack the Balls to Save the West


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: May 25, 2024 at 06:00 pm EST