How to Recognize Propaganda (circa 1957)


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jul 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong


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The Death of Free Speech Is the Beginning


Armstron Economics Blog/Freedom of Speech RE-Posted Jul 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Tunisia is actually criminalizing free speech under the claim that it is spreading “fake news” to end free speech in the country. The problem is this is the trend in the aftermath of COVID. Anything disagreeing with the government narrative is increasingly moving toward criminalization. This was the very same trend that the LEFT took under Marxism. I find it ironic that all we hear is that China is this horrible communist government that suppresses free speech when the United States is doing the same. I went behind the Berlin Wall before it fell with a friend to visit his family trapped there. If anyone was close to us, the rhetoric of how wonderful the government was became the speech. Then came the truth when we were alone. This is where we are headed.

The number of people censored and de-platformed under COVID was the launch pad for the termination of the First Amendment in the United States once and for all. The government has been directing private platforms to censor and remove people and then claim that the First Amendment only applies to the government – not to private companies. Robert F Kennedy, Jr. came out and also told the Democrats that they were weaponizing the government. Yet even the military has come out and confirmed that the COVID vaccines were causing serious side effects in the military. They hate RFK as much as Trump, for he, too, threatens their authoritarian style of government. Meanwhile, Congressman Jordan has put Pfizer on Tight Timeline to produce all evidence of Collusion with the Executive Branch and Social Media. This is going to be VERY interesting.

The Biden Administration taking its orders from the Neocons, has sent a letter advising Trump he is now a target in the January 6th nonsense, calling it sedition so they can bar him from ever holding any political office under the 14th Amendment. This outright interferes with the 2024 election, but nobody can indict the Department of Justice.  Meanwhile, Edward Snowden is in Russia because they would prosecute him for treason for telling the people that the government is violating the Constitution. We have lost the Rule of Law, which is one of the last straws before the decline and fall of any nation. Senator Chuck Grassley released the FD-1023 form, alleging that Mykola Zlochevsky, Burisma’s founder, paid a $5,000,000 bribe each to Vice President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden to have Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin fired.

I seriously doubt we will hear this story on CNN, MSNBC, Washington Post, New York Times, other than perhaps claiming it is a conspiracy theory. The media is now AGAINST the people and have formally crossed over into the camp of totalitarianism, refusing to report the truth about anything from election fraud to the war in Ukraine. The days of honest independent journalism are over. FOX fired Tucker for this very reason – they were given their marching orders.

It is confirmed that the FBI has circumvented the Constitution and violated the civil rights of everyone in this country by colluding with social media to censor citizens, which the First Amendment states that they cannot do under the rule of law. When the FBI raided my office and home, they NEVER produced any inventory. Things were missing I have never located ever since, and the lawyers will tell you you “cannot accuse the FBI of theft,” plain and simple. They then can claim they found whatever they want on a raid when they do not make an inventory. A former VP of the NY Post told me personally that the government calls the press or a journalist and starts they have a “favor” to ask. If you refuse, they send the IRS after you and tear your personal life apart. The government dictates even Wikipedia. That is why universities now tell students Wikipedia is NOT to be used as a source. It is not trustworthy. NOTHING is safe anymore. Even the pretend Fact-Checkers are not independent and are just part of the whole scheme.

Freedom of speech is only free when it applies to everyone.  I must defend the right of free speech even when disagreeing. True freedom of speech is incredibly dangerous for those in power when they have abused that power and are desperate to retain that power. This is what we face going into 2032. Those in power are losing their grip. I warned that our computer was projecting a rise in civil unrest and international war post-2014 at our 2011 World Economic Conference. That is now becoming obvious to many, including those in power.

It was Free Speech that was under attack in England. Remember the English Civil War between Royalists and Parliamentarians raged from 1642 to 1651. The Puritans won, beheaded the King, and imposed their religious beliefs upon everyone. It became a felony to kiss your wife in public. They outlawed all sports and Christmas and authorized spies to look in people’s windows to ensure they were not celebrating Christmas. Against this backdrop, in 1668, William Penn, founder of Pennsylvania, was imprisoned in the Tower of London for writing pamphlets Truth Exalted: To Princes, Priests, and People and The Sandy Foundation Shaken. This was all about protesting religion. The Bishop of London ordered that Penn be held indefinitely in prison without bail until he publicly recanted his written statements. I know how that goes also for Free Speech.

This is what Free Speach Was All About. Allowing the censorship of social media is outrageous. This is merely a sign that 2032 will be the collapse of governments. They know they have abused their power, and this is really the time for the Neocons. They care nothing about the country, or your future, only their insane hatred and cheer on the destruction of Western Society without ever considering what if they lose as they have consistently done since the 1960s.

The wisdom of those who rose to create a new way of government against monarchy is no longer revered. They tore down Jefferson’s statue until they claimed he was a slave owner. He inherited the slaves through his wife. Jefferson was the one who was against slavery and wrote the Declaration of Independence that stated all men were equal. But to free the slaves in 1776 would have been a death sentence. There was no employment at your local Starbucks. How would they survive? Those who judge others in the past by standards today are the greatest fools of all. Yet they preach hatred rather than bother to understand the core issues of freedom.

In 2013 a reporter asked Justin Trudeau which country he most admired. “There is a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to turn their economy around on a dime,” Trudeau smiled and stated with seriousness. He went on to say how he admired (i.e., envied) how dictators could implement laws on a whim without the people’s consent and added a nod to climate change policies, as the left does not see that as a problem yet. Trudeau is a graduate of Klaus Schwab’s authoritarian school and has strived to infiltrate the entire world and impose his social-economic doctrine to circumvent democracy and our personal freedom, all because we are too stupid to understand how the world should function according to what he believes everyone should bow down to him and gobble at his feet – herr führer (my leader).

The next 8-years going into 2032 will be the most difficult. History warns us that society will shed its skin like a snake. We will embark on a Great Reset, but many believe Schwab is using our model and trying to force this to go in his direction of totalitarianism. Democracy suddenly became Populism when Trump won in 2016. They will no longer tolerate our right to vote because we are not intelligent enough to understand that they are in power so shut up and sit down.

That Trump victory upset everyone at DAVOS. Suddenly they feared that they might be voted out of power. Thus, democracy became evil populism, and now Freedom of Speech also threatens their designs of indefinitely retaining power.

This UNELECTED Climate Tzar is also against democracy. He is using climate change for absolute control. They will attempt to use this to lock us down when things start to go against them. They are delusional to think that they can retain power but abuse and authoritarianism. History warns that NO GOVERNMENT has ever survived indefinitely. They all fall because of precisely what is taking place. The more they feel that power slipping between their fingers, the worse they will become.

Our computer warns that we are rapidly approaching 2032, when we just will have to turn out the lights on this failed political experiment. We have to start thinking about what type of government we will need to create and a monetary system since this is a global crisis that we are approaching where our republican forms of government will fall by their own weight of corruption just as monarchy did in the 18th century. It begins with the ending of free speech, as William Penn discovered, coupled with the collapse of the rule of law.

Edward Gibbon wrote of Emperor Commodus (177-192AD), with who historians agree began the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, that his abuse of the legal system denied any ability to obtain Due Process of Law. In the end, the ONLY recourse was a revolution because they simply assassinated him, which he then cast the Roman Empire into civil war.

distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse

Ukrainian General said Zelensky is Responsible for 100,000’s Dead Ukrainians


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Jul 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, My cousin is in government here ___________________, and he said you have the best sources that even surpass some intelligence agencies. Only you have been reporting that your Ukrainian sources told you that Zelensky is corrupt and has destroyed his country for a handful of silver. It is coming out that the Ukrainian Army General Serhiy Krivonos has openly said that Zelensky has indeed destroyed his country. He actually said, “This colossal mistake resulted in hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians and the destruction of a huge number of cities.”

My cousin said people from all countries go to you because they have a similar mindset. Would you agree? Why are your sources better than anyone else?

GDK

ANSWER: Zelensky is an actor – nothing more. He is destroying his country because he cares nothing about its people and plans his exit to a mansion in Miami. He always dresses in army clothing as a psychological ploy to constantly pretend he is fighting for freedom. This is such a lie, for Ukraine would never have been in such a position if Kiev did not start the civil war attacking the Donbas. This is the dissent against Putin that he did not invade Ukraine as the US did to Iraq. They are ethnic Russians who have been there for centuries in the Donbas. The US has done similar actions involving Americans in foreign nations. Zelensky wants them to surrender their language and their religion. This is absurd. He is willing to destroy his country and hopes that he will be able to sell the farmland and resources to Blackrock and live in Miami as a billionaire – tax-free, of course.

Zelensky is listed in the Panama Papers, and the fact-checkers try to divert people away from this fact. When Zelensky’s European tour took place begging for money, online claims went viral that he had purchased luxury villas in Crimea, Italy, and England with Western military aid money. This appears to be fake news. However, this may, in fact, be to cover the fact that he does have a property in Miami, most likely stashed under a fake name since this is where you find all the super-rich Ukrainians and Russians in Miami.

There are people in Ukraine, as there are in every country, who are the opposition to the current government. The Western press will never tell you about them because they are trying to create a false impression that the country is 100% behind him. Over 8 million have fled and are living mostly in Germany and Poland. They have lost everything, and many are now asking – For War? To occupy the Donbas with Russians?

People have been coming to us for decades. I have had central banks sharing info because they want it out but know that we have the largest institutional client base. Thus, they want the info to the people that matter. In addition, most journalists can spell and write nicely, but they do not know the subject matter of their writing. I remember an institutional session I did in Toronto, and the Bank of Canada took a table with 10 people. All the institutions knew who they were. They would ask me what the central bank was looking at. I would tell them, and everyone would look at that table for some reaction. When it was over, I told the head guy I hoped I did not say anything offensive. He responded it was fantastic. He wished he could tell these people outright but could not.

Even when I was invited by the People’s Bank of China during the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997, I had been warning that the capital flows shifted and turned back to Europe for the coming Euro in 1998. They said I was doing a fantastic job and to keep up the work. When I asked why they would not come out and say what I said, they replied that they could not criticize another central bank.

My sources are the best BECAUSE, in most cases, they cannot speak freely even to mainstream media, especially today. After what they did to me, it has had the OPPOSITE effect. Today, I have even more sources coming to me because they say

NOW I KNOW YOU ARE NOT PART OF NEW YORK. 

Interesting times. So yes, every intelligence agency reads this blog. I have the real-world experience of an international hedge fund manager, the only AI model that monitors the entire world.

When Nigel Farage came to our Rome WEC, he stood up and said, of course, he would appear because my WEC is the “alternative to Davos.”. I regard Nigel as a friend. Now the uproar over his treatment by the private bank Coutts, owned by NatWest Group, whose biggest shareholder just so happens to be the UK government since the 2008 financial crisis, has finally compelled them to apologize to Nigel. This is the world we live in. It has become so corrupt that you have to not just count your fingers when shaking hands with some; you better make sure you still have your arm.

John Kerry Struggles to Hide His Anger as Rep Humiliates Him for Lying | DM CLIPS | Rubin Report


Posted originally on The Rubin Report on Rumble on July 19, 2023

Harris – Reducing the Population is a Real Goal


Armstrong Economics Blog/Population Re-Posted Jul 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The White House claims that Vice President Kamala Harris made a gaff by saying that the goal was to “reduce population” when she should have said pollution. Of course, the immediate claim is that anyone disagreeing with that statement is engaging in a conspiracy theory. As they say, actions speak louder than words. She actually said the truth, and it is not a conspiracy theory. In Washington, they have been concerned with reducing population, which is the entire agenda behind climate change.

This entire LGBTQ is being pushed, but not for equality, for they won that in the Supreme Court. The military also had Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. This transgender push is to reduce the population. Only 1.6 million people in the entire United States identify as transgender. This is only 0.0048% of the population. Yet you would think it is really a sale effort to increase that to a majority to reduce the population. Speaking to people I know who are gay, they are suffering the blunt edge of this movement, for they are being thrown into the same category. They have chanted at Pride events, “Give us your children,” but if Jeffrey Epstein said they would petition for his execution.

This is NOT ending discrimination – it is creating it! Pushing it in schools and now separating boys’ and girls’ gyms in school is somehow identifying you as racist and far right. When military parades used to take place, it was just those of the various armed services. No longer. There has to be a “pride” flag. How about flags for every religion as well?

It was NOT a gaff. They tried to change it to pollution after the fact because of the backlash. This is by no means a conspiracy theory. This has been a movement funded by the rich people behind the climate change agenda. They both go hand-in-hand on the same path to hell. Don’t forget Gates’ fund to chip all women like a dog so he can use 5G to turn off the ability even to have children.

Freedom Flyers


Armstrong economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jul 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Have you ever noticed a decorative eagle plaque above a home in America? This was once a popular symbol back in the day to symbolize freedom from mortgage payments. Homeowners would adorn their houses with this symbol to indicate that they were free from the bank and owned their home free and clear. Around 40% of owner-occupied homes have been paid off, further adding to the housing inventory crisis.

The 2022 Federal Housing Finance Agency reported in 2022 that 84% of outstanding mortgages locked in a rate below 5%, while 63% secured a rate at or below 4%. Mortgage rates surpassed 8% last week and those who own are unlikely to sell. While some point to double-digit mortgage rates in the past, it was not difficult for buyers to put down 40% upfront since housing prices were low in comparison to wages. This was also a time when the cost of living supported a traditional lifestyle where only one partner was required to work.

Although COVID and low rates created strong demand, the underlying issue is the Great Reset. Institutions are set to own 40% of all single-family rentals by 2030, precisely on time for Agenda 2030. Regular buyers have been outbid by institutions coming in with cash payments. BlackRock is now the largest landowner in America. This is all by design. They do not want people to afford a home because then there would be no need for 15-minute cities, and forever renters living in ADUs. The inventory issue will not recover because no one can outbid the institutions who do not need to borrow money.

Trudeau – A Modern-Day Caligula?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jul 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Nathaniel Pawlowski delivered a powerful speech to the European Parliament, where he called Justin Trudeau a modern-day Caligula. Pawlowski’s father, Artur Pawlowski, has been arrested numerous times for simply speaking out against the tyrannical Canadian government. Artur Pawlowski was a vocal advocate for medical freedom and continued to speak up for the people despite threats from the government. “Government has fallen,” the younger Pawlowski said, stating that Canadians have lost all freedoms under the rule of the Young Globalist WEF Leader Justin Trudeau.

Artur is being charged with criminal mischief for preaching to the Trucker Convoy in a 19-minute sermon, deemed a radical act of terrorism against the Canadian government. “If a pastor goes to prison, what can they do to the rest of us?” the son pleaded, asking the remaining free world to help his father before his trial in August. He called Trudeau a “modern-day Caligula” for stripping Canadians of all rights and ushering in tyranny under the guise of COVID. He called out the WHO for structuring a way to take away our rights as well.

You can read more about Caligula here. He is remembered for opulence, incest, and outrageous rulings, such as naming his horse a senator. While he was a poor ruler, I believe Trudeau is far more tyrannical. There are other emperors who emerged over the long course of the Roman Empire who truly struck down the people and removed all freedoms at whim.

Commodus is a good example. Commodus believed he was a god – Hercules reincarnated – and demanded to be worshipped. Commodus renamed the calendar, declaring that all the months of the year were to be renamed corresponding to his twelve names: Lucius, Aelius, Aurelius, Commodus, Augustus, Herculeus, Romanus, Exsuperatorius, Amazonius, Invictus, Felix, and Pius. He decreed that all the legions were to be renamed. Commodianae, the fleet which imported grain from Africa was termed Alexandria Commodiana Togata. Even the Senate was to be renamed the Commodian Fortunate Senate. These insane decrees were instantly abolished upon his death when he was assassinated on December 31, 192 AD.

Edward Gibbon wrote of him in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:“[D]istinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse.” (Book 1, Chapter 4)

Still, there are more tyrants amid the Roman Empire who condemned all freedoms and appointed themselves as God over the people. Dare I refer to King Herod Antipas who arrested and later beheaded John the Baptist for speaking out against the tyrant’s marriage to his own sister-in-law, or the notorious Emperor Pontius Pilate who crucified Jesus for speaking against the government and former way of life? Those in charge do not like to have their authority questioned, even if it is in a peaceful manner.

NATO – Escalates Nuclear War


Armstrong Economics Blog/NATO Re-Posted Jul 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

What has come out of this NATO meeting is the West is escalating the war with Russia. They are expanding the “sharing” of nuclear weapons at the request of Poland, which has always been rejected previously. This means that any nation with F35 and F16 will have available to them nuclear weapons. This is why Russia has warned that handing Ukraine F16s will mean that they must now assume they could be carrying nuclear weapons, and rightly so for Ukraine is driven by its hatred and is by no means a responsible nation-state. NATO knows that.

The entire reason NATO will not really allow Ukraine to enter while it is at war has little to do with its legal code. The Neocons are using Ukraine as their sacrificial lamb on this altar of war. As long as Ukraine is not a member yet, the Neocons can funnel everything to them; they hope that Ukraine will create some false flag to justify nuclear war with Russia as their dream come true. As RFK has pointed out, immediately upon his return, Biden ordered the deployment of 3,000 more reservists to Europe. This is simply preparing to fight Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine/Europe.

Victoria Nuland is now the #2 in the State Department. Her sister-in-law Kimberly Kagan founded the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which is the source of much of the fake news. All the ISW does is put out propaganda about Russia that they are corrupt and weak and that we can take them down in a few weeks without nuclear weapons. This family has its roots in Ukraine. Most curious, even the New York Times wrote about this Kagan family that they were really leftists and very outspoken to the point of manipulating whatever to gain their view of the world. The question is, just why is this family such warmongers? We have a major undisclosed conflict of interest, and the Biden Administration should immediately fire Victoria Nuland and all her supporters within the Biden Administration to save the world and our nation.

Victoria Nuland is really of Ukrainian Jewish descent. Her family changed their name to try to hide their Jewish ethnic background. She really would be Nudelman, not Nuland. She is actually the daughter of Yale bioethics and medicine professor Sherwin B. Nuland, who changed his surname from Nudelman to Nuland. She retained her family name Nuland to perhaps further hide her Jewish connection by marrying Robert Kagan. Victoria speaks Russian, French, and some Chinese. Hiding her Jewish background is critical. Her father was raised by parents who were Orthodox Jewish immigrants from Ukraine. Hence, her grandparents were Jewish Meyer Nudelman (1889-1958) and Vitsche Lutsky (1893-1941). This explains why Nuland has been a public proponent for Ukraine to wage war against Russia.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi are desperately trying to broker a peace deal. But Zelensky is pure evil. He has sold his own nation out to the Neocons for a handful of silver offered by Blackrock and JPMorgan. My Ukrainian sources have their eyes open. Zelensky is destroying Ukraine to capture the Donbas and Crimea, which have Russian Indigenous people they hate passionately. This is like trying to solve the differences between Sunni and Shite in the Middle East – not going to happen. Zelensky is simply a war criminal, and this is a land grab since the Ukrainian ethnic people have never occupied the Donbas.

Khrushchev was in charge of rebuilding Liev after World War II and drew the border for that province simply for administrative purposes, for it was Russia at the time. Khruschev grew up there in the Donbas, and he was followed by Brezhnev who was also born and raised in the Donbas. So we are to wage World War III for territory that has NEVER been Ukrainian? In Moscow, there has been a debate for decades about who is Russian. Stalin was from Georgia, and neither Khrushchev nor Brezhnev was born in Moscow.

Under the Ukrainian theory that the Donbas is Ukraine, Ukraine set the entire Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 in motion. Does that mean that Ukraine is the real former enemy, not Russia, since Khrushchev set that in motion? This seems to explain Victoria Nuland’s sheer hatred for Russia and her constant push for war along with her husband and the propaganda from her sister-in-law at the Institute for the Study of War that is always being quoted by the press.

Handing F16s to Ukraine, combined with this NATO shift toward a nuclear-sharing agenda, means that Russia must now consider Ukraine a nuclear threat. This is an insane escalation, and it is all being driven by this Neocon dream to annihilate Russia from the face of the planet. Meanwhile, inside Russia, their anti-war experts oppose claims from their Neocons to launch a preemptive nuclear strike. This has come out and made it clear that such a push is extremely irresponsible, according to Russia’s influential think tank. There will always be pro- and anti-government segments no matter what country you visit.

Unfortunately, the Neocon thinking is to judge others by what you yourself would do:

“I know you will punch me in the face, so I will defend myself and punch you first!”

They created the Institute for the Study of War – not PEACE. They live for war – that is all they ever preach. This is their time, and they have seized all the power of the White House and will declare war, bypassing Congress and call it a required response under the NATO treaty; thus the people, nor Congress will have any say in creating World War III. This is why the 2024 election MUST be rigged for anyone other than Biden might ask questions.

Further Evidence of WWIII – DoD Budget


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jul 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Department of Defense (DoD) drastically changed its budget plan. The left is constantly complaining about how America spends too much on defense, and the White House originally decided that there would be around a 2% increase in the budget for 2024, which is average. Now, the Department of Defense is planning a 10% increase in military spending for 2024.

We are allegedly not at war, so why is the government planning a 10% increase on an $880 BILLION budget? That is a massive increase for a country allegedly not at war. The proxy war was planned long ago (see: “The Plot to Seize Russia), and the chess pieces are now in a position for the US to engage in warfare unapologetically. They need to pull the trigger on this plan before November 2024. This is the PLANNED election cancellation plan.

The US must be engaged in a full-scale war for Joe Biden to remain in power. The world knows that the lights are on and no one is home, so to speak. Biden is rapidly losing his cognitive abilities in front of the world and no one dares to impeach him for the numerous offenses made against the US. There are plenty of other candidates who even those on the left would chose ahead of Biden. The problem becomes Biden is bought and paid for – an easily managed puppet of the deep state. They need their puppet to stay at the forefront to prevent anyone from interrupting their plan.

We will not have a real 2024 US Presidential Election. They have already put funds aside for the war, and will no doubt ask for more. No sitting president has ever been ousted during a war and this is the Neocons last chance to secure power. World War III already started.

New study shows that neither global warming nor CO2 radiative forcing were a cause of mass extinctions


Browse:Home/2023/July/10/New Study: Neither Global Warming Or CO2 Radiative Forcing Were A Cause Of Past Mass Extinctions

New Study: Neither Global Warming Or CO2 Radiative Forcing Were A Cause Of Past Mass Extinctions

By Kenneth Richard on 10. July 2023

Over the last 210 million years [Myr], (a) CO2 falls as temperatures rise (negative correlation, r = -0.76), (b) mass extinctions occur 4.08 Myr after CO2 peaks, and (c) global warming/CO2 radiative forcing “did not cause extinction of biodiversity.”

A new study has been published in Earth’s Future journal that supplements a 2017 analysis of hundreds of millions of years of CO2 and temperature variations.

Davis (2017) argued that for 97.44% of the last 425 Myr there was either a negative correlation (CO2 falls, temperatures rise or CO2 rises as temperatures fall) or no correlation at all between variations in global temperatures and radiative forcing by atmospheric CO2. In other words, the IPCC-proposed link between the rise in atmospheric CO2 as the causal mechanism and global warming could only explain 2.56% of the variance in the long-term paleoclimate record.

Image Source: Davis, 2017

A positive correlation between high CO2 and extinctions

But now a new study by the same author looks at the timing of mass extinctions and their correspondence with atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last 210 Mya. There were reportedly 12 mass extinction events that occurred when CO2 was rising to peak levels (~1,000 ppm) during this period, whereas 6 occurred as CO2 was falling. This is considered a weakly positive correlation.

Interestingly, though, the timing for the mass extinctions was, on average, 4.08 Myr after the CO2 levels had reached their apex. This leads one to question why it would be thought the effect (mass extinctions) should lag the triggering cause (peak CO2) by millions of years. Especially since species extinctions can occur in time spans of decades to centuries.

A negative correlation between global warming and atmospheric CO2

As he did in his previous paper, Davis (2023) documents an overall negative correlation between global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last 210 Mya. Specifically, multiple degrees of increases in global temperatures occurred as CO2 levels fell (for example, from 772 ppmv to 291 ppmv).

“The correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentration and interpolated global temperature proxies is discernible and negative (r = −0.76, n = 8, p = 0.01).”

Since the correlation between CO2 and global temperature is more often negative than positive, the positive link between high CO2 levels and extinctions Davis addresses in his study could be explained as a better correlation with high CO2 and global cooling than with high CO2 and global warming.

Image Source: Davis, 2023

Neither global warming or CO2 radiative forcing caused past mass extinctions

Over the last 210 Myr, the correlation between global warming periods and mass extinctions is “not discernibly different from zero” (r = 0.03), and the correlation between atmospheric CO2 radiative forcing (RF) is also “not discernibly different from zero” (r = -0.001). Without correlation, there can be no causal relationship between either global warming or CO2 radiative forcing and the record of mass extinctions.

“These results collectively require rejection of the hypothesis that long-term (Myr timescale) global temperature change caused extinction of biodiversity across the most highly resolved portion of the fossil record, the last 210 Myr.”

“This study therefore excludes long-term temperature (climate) change as a possible cause of past mass extinctions.”

“If long-term global warming was the cause of past extinctions, then long-term temperature and marginal RF by atmospheric CO2 should both be correlated positively with biodiversity loss. As shown here, however, biodiversity loss is not correlated discernibly with marginal RF by atmospheric CO2…that is, changes in RF by atmospheric CO2 did not cause past collapses in biodiversity and are not a plausible kill mechanism of mass extinctions.”