Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union
Re-Posted Mar 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The British Parliament has rejected Prime Minister May’s BREXIT plan for a third time. This now leaves them to come up with a plan that Brussels must accept by April 12th or face a hard exit. On top of that, the phone here is melting down with questions about how “hard” is a “hard-landing” going to be from various political sources. Central banks are shifting already to once again stimulate. This is not looking very good, to say the least. Ten years of stimulation has been a complete failure in Europe. We have major political and banking turmoil and financial chaos looking ever more serious for May.
The Only Solution
Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs
Re-Posted Mar 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Re Solution to a new monetary system::
In the “Solution” presented it was suggested that the existing US bonds be required to invest in companies in the USA. Does the govt just print the money for the bond values to give to the companies? If the companies receive the bonds, how are they liquidated otherwise?
KB
ANSWER: It becomes a debt for equity swap. The debt must be retired. It is replaced with just the creation of money. Now people will yell that is hyperinflationary. Not true. Since 1971, government debt is acceptable for collateral when you trade your accounts at a broker. It is simply cash that pays interest. It is already part of the money supply. What you are implying is really old school economics that believe increasing the money supply will be inflationary. This is just not the case. Even after 10 years of Quantitative Easing, we still have deflationary trends in pockets like Europe and Japan.
Some wrongly believe that you are just increasing the money supply. Pre-1971, when bonds were not allowed to be collateral, then yes, it was less inflationary to borrow than to print. However, since the debt is already cash that now pays interest post-1971, it is just a swap. Huge distinction.
Interest expenditures will soon exceed that of the military. This solution will reduce the cost of government, and thereafter, you outlaw any possible right to borrow once again.
Are 95% of Bitcoin Trades Fake?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency
Re-Posted Mar 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact you always stand in the middle. Do you believe that 95% of Bitcoin Trading is fake?
Thank you
KL
ANSWER: I did not conduct that study. It does sound a bit high. However, manipulation has been a historical problem in the commodity world. As I stated before, the manipulations were common practice in commodities during the 1970s. It was brought to Wall Street when Phibro took over Solomon Brothers in the early 80s. By 1991, they were charged with manipulating the US government bond market. How did they do that? The very same way these allegations of fake Bitcoin trades are taking place. You put in bids to pretend the market is deep and so you buy ever increasing the price.
Do I personally believe there is fake trading in Bitcoin taking place off-exchange? Absolutely. Would I assume that 95% is fake? I would question that high of a number. I would have to review their criteria for classifying a trade as fake. I would probably place it at the 50%+ level but not 95%. That is just my opinion based upon historical levels of manipulations in commodities.
For example, I knew the Hunt brothers as clients in the early 1970s. Only a few months before the high, the world suddenly knew what they were up to. That info was spread by the dealers to get everyone in the retail market to rush in and buy silver with claims it was heading to $100. But the dealers, I believe, bribed the CFTC and the exchange into raising margins to be long on silver and making shorts required to put up a fraction of that margin requirement. The dealers shorted silver, the public lost, and they bankrupted the Hunts. They made so much money that they then began to buy Wall Street.
President Trump Lengthy Interview With Sean Hannity…
March 27, 2019
Tonight President Trump called-in to Fox News host Sean Hannity for an unusually lengthy interview. The interview ran almost 45 minutes without commercial interruption.
There are multiple breaking news aspects to this interview including President Trump affirming his intention to declassify all of the material previously discussed [See Here]. As CTH noted last year, President Trump stated his lawyers directly advised him against declassification because such action would be construed as obstruction. WATCH:
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I’ll be breaking down this interview for continued discussion.
President Trump Participates in Medal of Honor Ceremony – 4:00pm Livestream
March 27, 2019
President Donald Trump participates in the posthumous Medal of Honor ceremony for Staff Sergeant Travis W. Atkins, United States Army. Atkins’ initial award, the Distinguished Service Cross, was upgraded to the Medal of Honor after a Defense Department review. His son, Trevor, and parents will represent him at a White House ceremony. Anticipated start time 4:00pm EST
UPDATE: Video Added
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Staff Sergeant Travis W. Atkins will receive the Medal of Honor for his actions of June 1, 2007, in support of IRAQI FREEDOM. While serving in Iraq with Company D, 2d Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment, 2d Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, Staff Sergeant Atkins engaged in hand-to hand combat with a suspected insurgent.
As he attempted to subdue the man, Staff Sergeant Atkins realized the insurgent was attempting to detonate a bomb strapped to his body. When he noticed the insurgent was about to trigger the suicide vest, Staff Sergeant Atkins tackled him, selflessly using his own body to shield his fellow soldiers from the imminent explosion. Staff Sergeant Atkins’ heroic actions, at the cost of his life, saved the lives of three of his teammates.
Travis W. Atkins was born on Dec. 9, 1975, in Great Falls, Montana. He moved with his parents, Jack and Elaine, to Bozeman, Montana, in 1981. Growing up, Atkins was an avid outdoorsman. He loved to hunt, fish, snowmobile and camp.
Prior to enlisting, Atkins worked for concrete and painting contractors, and as a small-engine mechanic, but his athletic nature and desire to serve ultimately led him to the U.S. Army.
Atkins enlisted on Nov. 9, 2000, and attended basic infantry training at Fort Benning, Georgia. He was assigned to Alpha Company, 3rd Battalion, 327th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, and deployed with the 101st to Kuwait in early March 2003. Atkins participated in the invasion of Iraq later that month as an infantry fire team leader.
Atkins was honorably discharged from the Army in December 2003.
Back home, Atkins attended the University of Montana in Missoula and worked as a painting and concrete contractor. Two years later, Atkins once again answered the call to serve.
He reenlisted in the U.S. Army in December 2005 and was reassigned to Delta Company in the same battalion and deployed to Iraq again in August 2006.
He was killed in action on June 1, 2007. (Source)
President Trump Meets With Venezuela First Lady Fabiana Rosales…
March 27, 2019
Earlier today President Donald Trump held a bilateral oval office meeting with First Lady of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela Fabiana Rosales. The delegation accompanying Lady Rosales included: Carlos Vecchio, Ambassador-designate of Venezuela to the United States; Mrs. Romy Moreno Molina, Wife of Interim President Guaido’s Chief of Staff, Roberto Marrero; and Mrs. Belen Marrero Borjas, Sister of Roberto Marrero.
Juan Guaido’s Chief of staff Roberto Marrero was recently kidnapped by the Maduro regime. Today’s meeting was a show of support for Jaun Guaido. [Video]
Lady Fabiana Rosales is 26-years-old.
Inverted Yield Curve Points to Recession?
Armstrong Aconomic Blog/Bonds
Re-Posted Mar 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early indicator of a recession. In that regard, it is conforming to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been warning that this last leg should be a hard landing economically for most of the world. Nonetheless, while the yield curve has inverted, it has done so in a rather unusual manner. This is NOT suggesting a major recession in the United States. Instead, it is a reflection of global uncertainty outside the USA.
This Inverted Yield Curve is confirming that as the political chaos emerging around the world, and that more and more foreign capital is parking in the dollar. With the May elections on the horizon in Europe, and the October elections in even Canada, April elections in Israel … etc. etc., the capital flows are still pointing ever stronger into the dollar right now. The foreign capital has been buying the 10-year notes driving the spread lower.
We can see that the 10-year premium to the 2-years has been in a major decline ever since our War Cycle turned in 2014. The Yield Curve (10-2yr) has not inverted. This is clearly showing the capital flight to the dollar that has been going on post-2014. This is not reflecting a major recession in the USA, but it is inferring that the ECM will be turning soon
Regulating the Virtual & Cryptocurrency World
Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency
Re-Posted Mar 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
While many believe that the off-exchange trading platforms in Bitcoin bypass fiat central banks, there are developments in the legal world that warn of regulation is headed into the field with a vengeance. There were three important recent actions in federal courts that illustrate the interplay among the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) & Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) federal regulators seeking to expand their jurisdiction into the virtual currency world. This movement to expand their jurisdiction does not come from Congress. Instead, they charge people and create legal precedents and this is how most “law” is actually made. Clearly, these actions illustrate that they are moving into the virtual currency arena. The three cases are:
- On September 26, 2018, Judge Rya W. Zobel of the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts handed down an important decision in a case alleging the fraudulent sale of a virtual currency called My Big Coin (MBC).2 In denying the defendants’ motion to dismiss, Judge Zobel confirmed the CFTC’s sweeping assertion of authority to police virtual currency markets under the antifraud and manipulation provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and its implementing regulations.
- On September 11, 2018, Judge Raymond J. Dearie of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York denied a motion to dismiss the United States’ indictment for fraud under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (Exchange Act) in connection with the sale of virtual currencies claimed to be backed by real estate and diamonds.3 In denying the defendants’ motion to dismiss, Judge Dearie found that the virtual currencies at issue could reasonably be considered investment contracts and thus securities
- On September 27, 2018, the SEC and the CFTC filed parallel complaints in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia against an online trading platform and its CEO offering swaps based on underlying securities and commodities funded with bitcoin, alleging violations of the federal securities and commodities laws.
My biggest concern is that it will be a tiny step for mankind to declare off-exchanges to be illegally operating without registration and it would not be too far behind for they to be criminally prosecuted for also money laundering just like any bank for the failure to report every individual trading on these platforms. I would suspect we will see the further expansion into the virtual currency world by the SEC, CFTC, and DOJ long before we see any real legislation from Congress. They will ALWAYS pick the worse cases to make law and then apply it to everyone.
Senator Mike Lee Promoted to General During Great Meme War of 2019 – The Battle Against Green New Deal…
Today on the Senate floor, United States Senator Mike Lee received his first star for conspicuous pageantry, meritorious valor, and ridicule with specific consequence during the great meme battle of 2019 against the Green New Deal. WATCH:
President Trump Delivers Pointed Remarks About Mueller Report and Obama’s Involvement During Senate Luncheon (Video and Transcript)…
March 26, 2019
Whooo doggies…. President Trump attended a working policy luncheon today with Senate Republicans. Making brief remarks to the media, President Trump answered questions about the Mueller report and the manufactured false Russian narrative.
While avoiding the specifics, President Trump directly implied the involvement of former President Obama. [Video and Transcript below]
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[Transcript] 1:05 P.M. EDT – Q Some Democrats, sir, are still talking about impeachment. What’s your response to that?
THE PRESIDENT: I don’t think they’re talking about impeachment. We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had. Our country is in incredible shape. They and others created a fraud on our country with this ridiculous witch hunt, where it was proven, very strongly, no collusion, no obstruction. No nothing.
We are doing so well. We’ve never probably had a time of prosperity like this. It’s been great.
Q Mr. President, you’re accusing the people who launched the investigation into your campaign of treasonous acts.
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.
Q How high up do you think it went?
THE PRESIDENT: I think it went very high up. I think what happened is a disgrace. I don’t believe our country should allow this ever to happen again. This will never happen again. We cannot let it ever happen again. It went very high up, and it started fairly low, but with instructions from the high up. This should never happen to a President again. We can’t allow that to take place.
Q Mr. President, do you think it reached the West Wing of the Obama White House?
THE PRESIDENT: I don’t want to say that, but I think you know the answer.
Q Mr. President, the report says that while you did not commit a crime —
THE PRESIDENT: Who said what?
Q The Mueller report says — according to the Barr letter — while you —
THE PRESIDENT: The Mueller report was great. It could not have been better. It said, “No obstruction. No collusion.” It could not have been better.
Q On healthcare — on healthcare: Your administration is making very clear that you think the Affordable Care Act is invalid and should be struck down. What is your message to Americans who may be concerned about their healthcare?
THE PRESIDENT: Let me tell you exactly what my message is: The Republican Party will soon be known as the Party of Healthcare. You watch.
Centinel2012 