Posted originally on Jul 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You said that the German Nazi Party was raising money selling bonds in the United States before they invaded Poland in 1939. When I asked AI, if the Nazis sold bonds in the US it said “No, the Nazi regime did not sell sovereign bonds in the United States after coming to power in 1933 and before the outbreak of WWII in 1939.” So, who is correct? You or AI?
ANSWER: From what I am being told, a problem is surfacing with ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. The development of language models to engage in AI is presenting a problem. They are learning from the WEB, correct. However, they are not necessarily capable of verifying what is true or false. Here is a Conversion Office for German Foreign Debts $100 Bond (Nazi Government sold in the United States) into the New York 1936. I have the physical evidence that suggests that the answer you received was incorrect.
British Journal of Educational Technology (BJET) recently explained that “no research has yet examined how epistemic beliefs and metacognitive accuracy affect students’ actual use of ChatGPT-generated content, which often contains factual inaccuracies. ” For those unfamiliar with this arcane term of philosophy, linguistics, and rhetoric, epistemic, it traces back to the knowledge of the Greeks. That Greek word is from the verb epistanai, meaning “to know or understand.”
I try to be accurate, and if I state something as fact, I have generally verified it versus making a statement of just an “opinion,” perhaps derived from a belief. Nobody is perfect – not even ChatGPT.
Posted originally on Jul 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
They say it takes a generation to reshape the way a nation views its military allegiance. Germany dwindled its military capacity significantly after its defeat in the last world war, wearing their loss as a badge of shame. Neither the people nor the government wanted to reinvigorate Germany’s military power after the destructive nation building and expansion under the Third Reich. The times have changed, as they always do, and Germany is now on the defensive. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz envisions forming the largest armyin Europe.
“Building up our military is our top priority,” said Merz. “From now on, the federal government will provide the military with as much money as it needs to ensure it becomes Europe’s strongest armed force. We are Europe’s most populous country and Europe’s biggest economy, and nothing less should be expected from us. Our partners not only expect this — they demand it.”
Merz stated that Germany will spend 3.5% of its GDP on military defense over the next decade, placing spending as a percentage on par with the United States. Germany already found a loophole to spend on defense indefinitely after declaring an emergency and deciding to ignore prior military spending limits. The Germany government now plans to spend $400 billion on defense alone through 2029. Simultaneously, the nation will not cut social programs or readjust its overall budget as a constitutional amendment now permits lawmakers to bypass the debt brake and borrow in perpetuity without calculating that spending in the federal budget.
Germany believes it is on the right side of history due to its backing of Ukraine, the world’s favorite underdog. A refugee favorite, the nation has allowed 1.2 million Ukrainians into its borders since the war began. The nation hit a record-high for population growth in 2022 due to the number of migrants it has accepted.
Now, Germany provides more funding to Ukraine than any other European nation, and is third globally behind the US and UK. Merz has been an outspoken critic of the United States under Donald Trump due to his reluctance to support Ukraine, and he believes he build an iron-clad military so powerful that the entirety of Europe will no longer need to depend on America for defense.
The Bundeswehr, Germany’s military, currently has around 262,000 troops, but it would like to boldly increase its size with 200,000 additional troops and will spend €100 billion in a special fund to modernize its military. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in May 2024 that he was “convinced” that Germany “needs a form of military conscription.”While there is no conscription, Germans are required to register for a potential draft before they turn 18. By June of 2024, I was informed by multiple personal sources that this registration had been extended to include women. One reliable source informed me that her female family friend was sent a notice to register at 59 years old.
Germany is the core foundation of the entire European economy. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. Germany’s trajectory toward war is not driven by a public desire for conflict, but by economic, political, and geopolitical pressures—and especially by its entanglement with the European Union, its energy crisis and the collapse of fiscal discipline across Europe. Net Zero initiatives and cutting off cheap Russian gas drastically hurt the German economy by raising energy costs and stifling its auto market. The entire European Union is collapsing, with Germany at the center as the bloc’s primary financier. The EU needs war to maintain the illusion of control, and Germany must be at the frontlines as the bloc’s richest nation.
Posted originally on Jun 27, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
A source from inside the NATO summit reported that Trump has correctly stated that Article 5 is voluntary, not a binding commitment. He has said that the US will sell and supply weapons, intelligence, and support to NATO and NATO members if a NATO member is attacked by other countries that are not NATO members. That would not include Turkey vs Greece – two NATO members. However, the US itself will not get involved in the actual fighting with boots on the ground. This is what I have been told by some key people close to Trump, so this is from two directions.
As far as Europe’s desire for war against Russia, Trump stated that the US will not get involved on the ground, and they will not stay engaged in prolonged peacemaking indefinitely. He did not rule out supporting the UK’s coalition to lead Europe into war. However, they seem to think that they have two years to prepare and expect World War III by 2027. They realize that this is now a drone war, and they need 2 years to prepare. Everyone is ready for conscription, including Canada, and that includes Turkey, which has the largest standing army in NATO after the US. I had that same idea from the Vienna Peace Conference. What clearly surfaced was that all members have adopted a war footing. There were no pacifists.
Asd far as Israel vs Iran, the consensus seems to be following the Neocon view that the Iranian regime will implode. As always, there is no consideration for what that would look like, and they also appear to fail to comprehend that this is a religious war. The assassination of the Supreme Leader would turn him into a Martyr, and would have untold consequences.
The summit was meant to be mainly about Ukraine and Russia, but was sidetracked heavily by Israel and Iran. Still, with Russia and China supporting Iran, they did not seem even to consider how quickly WW3 could unfold. They are unprepared for war. The question becomes, why should an enemy wait for them to arm themselves? The time to strike would be sooner rather than later.
Posted originally on Jun 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Bloomberg and the other Fake News outlets that hate Trump and want more EQUALITY, following the very same philosophies as Stalin imposed in Russia. All we hear is the danger of wealth disparity. When there is no wealth disparity because people are not allowed to invent or become rich, you get economic stagnation and widespread poverty. But these FAKE NEWS outlets constantly push the same nonsense over and over again. The de-dollarization is all because of Trump, so we better overthrow Trump and bring in Kamala so the Neocons can really help the economy with uncontrolled, endless war spending and a reduction of the population to reduce government obligations.
While the FAKE NEWS and the perpetual GOLD-ONLY crowd promote the de-dollarization with BRICS, that means in time of war, you are buying Chinese yuan, Russian rubles, and the country most in debt – Brazil. Their perpetual promotion of BRICS and even the latest absurd forecast for Bitcoin at $21,000 by 2046 suggests that these individuals appear to know little about the world economy, the business cycle, or war. They refuse to consider two critical factors: (1) the sovereign debt crisis, and (2) the war.
Interest Expenditures as % of GDP (Top 30 Economies):
United States: 1.9%
China: 1.2%
Japan: 2.0% (despite high debt, low rates keep payments manageable)
Germany: 0.8%
India: 3.3%
United Kingdom: 3.5%
France: 1.7%
Italy: 3.9%
Brazil: 8.5% (highest among major economies)
Canada: 1.4%
The sovereign debt crisis is brewing, but outside the USA FIRST!!!! Canada’s interest expenditures are on track to exceed healthcare expenditures. While people continue to discuss the US debt as a reason for de-dollarization, consider the BRICS; they are paying more in interest as a percentage of GDP than the US, and Brazil is the worst. Britain is in a precarious state, comparable to Italy, and Starmer’s policies are pushing the UK over the edge. Germany has just abandoned austerity and is now going to inflate to prepare for war. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is UNSUSTAINABLE, but it will break FIRST outside the USA. The United States will be the last standing.
NATO to Accelerate Sovereign Debt Crisis
As the pressure on funding the war, NATO wants 5% of GDP for its Neocon War objectives. They are handing Ukraine another $40 billion that goes into the pockets of untold politicians and no doubt kickbacks even into NATO. This 5% is greater than the interest expenditures. NATO will not only take us into World War III, but they are also accelerating the Sovereign Debt Crisis.
This is NOT positive for the de-dollarization BS. Europe is highly socialistic, and this shift from social spending to war will lead to more civil unrest. NATO is a warmongering NEOCON retirement home. They have no interest in peace, for that would make them redundant. The only way they can keep their salaries and pensions is to insist on endless wars.
Just compare the economic growth rate of the United States to the exceptionally socialistic policies of Europe. There is no comparison. But the dollar is trash against everything else? When the bullets start to fly, capital controls will be imposed in the EU, and capital will be trapped. Compare even the GDP of Canada to that of the EU. Carney wants to join Europe.
We are looking at the pressure to raise taxes beyond income. In Australia, some leftists actually proposed that it is unjust for one person to inherit a fortune and another not to. They argued that upon death, everything should be given to the government in the name of “Fairness” and “Equality,” which is their favorite word. In Canada, discussions have been held about proposing a tax on unrealized capital gains on property. The argument is that this was like gambling. They earned this money by mere chance. Such proposals would absolutely destroy society and the economy. They are not likely. However, these extreme examples demonstrate how the LEFT cannot live in peace and always want to take what others have because they have more than they do.
As for the absurd forecast that Bitcoin will reach $21,000 by 2046, that is the same emotional analysis used in discussions about climate change. Sorry, 2025 may be a significant high point. With war on the horizon, Bitcoin has been a great vehicle for transferring money from one country to another. It is not being bought as a fantastic store of wealth. In war, take out the power grid and watch what happens. I can attest to being in Florida, when a hurricane takes down the power, not even a credit card will work – CASH ONLY!
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