The Rich v Oligarchs


QUESTION: Hello Martin, You have said ‘the rich get richer by investing’; and as well, you’ve said ‘governments are always corrupted’. What history shows (and many of us have learned) is that ‘big money’ is especially adept at manipulating government for its own advantage. Currently, we call this ‘regulatory capture’. (This includes ‘judicial’ capture). The revolving door between corporate and government executive offices is obvious and historical. So I suggest that ‘the rich get richer by investing in corruption’ and suborning every possible corner of the body politic.

You have also said ‘ human nature never changes’. I could dispute that selectively from a religious point of view, but generally, I concur. However, since ‘big money’ understands human nature this is why it bankrolls/sponsors all manner of destructive lusty covetousness among the peoples of the world, (especially including borrowing to speculate) enabling it by easy credit-debt, using force of law, under threat of ‘assassination’, in one form or another, to collect.

You’ve also noted that Moses said “thou shalt not covet” your neighbor’s assets, though, particularly in relation to the principle of ‘socialism/Marxism’. However Moses also renounced, in the name of God, the practice of usury among people of the land, that is, in the body politic.

Also, you’ve mentioned the Mosaic law of the generational debt jubilee for all other kinds of debt in kind. Martin, to my mind, the first way of covetously accumulating capital is through pure force, theft and plunder by conquest, (yet wars must be ‘bankrolled’ too). In times of relative peace the debt-equity swap appears to be the fundamental and intentional principle of accumulation of capital, and, thus, ‘the business cycle’, the inner machinations of which are controlled, as much as possible, by lenders and their ‘legal’ contractual leverage. (Recall, for example, the Jewish ‘Shetar laws’ introduced into England after the conquest by William the Conqueror).

These things being said, and given the prospect of the ‘bankruptcy’ of the current political/economic ‘system’, I am particularly interested if you have any comment upon the super-priority of derivative contracts in business bankruptcy, not to mention, bail-in provisions of bank ‘reconciliation’, as established in various statutes. (Your recent posting of ‘1984 is Here’, and Orwell’s illumination of ‘oligarchical collectivism’ is apropos in exposing the historical link between financial/corporate oligarchy and ‘socialism’, the plantation mentality of mercantilism, etc..

It seems to me the ‘private wave’ is not necessarily something to be looking forward to, either, actually.) Many regards for your work, and thanks for holding fast to a humane heart. FCB, a Socrates subscriber. (By the way, the date of Jesus’ birth has been remarkably addressed in E.L. Martin’s 1991 work “The Star that Astonished the World”)

FB

ANSWER: I think sometimes I am not always specific in what I say because in my mind I have drawn a distinction that I have not articulated in words. As Einstein said, he thought in concepts, not words. That is a very true statement that has been largely ignored by most programmers who try to mimic the brain with neural networks. That is why IBM’s Watson was unable to find cures. As a programmer, I should know better. You really have to break down every single step in an action to be able to code it. How do you move your arm? It begins with a thought which then moves all the various elements for you to raise your hand up in a classroom.

That confession aside, when I speak of the “rich” who do not make money from wages but investments, I am not referring to the corporate organizations that are not single individuals but are honestly bureaucratic private replicas of government. I have attended board meetings of some of the largest public corporations in the world. I find them to be the same in structure as governments. I was called into a major auto company to resolve a $1 billion loss in hedging. They then referred me to a parent company that held stock in their corporation, for they had the same trade. The parent company had made hedging decisions at the board level and because they lost money by second-guessing their hedging decisions, they passed a resolution that once they took a hedging position, they would let it expire. By the end of the fiscal year, the two were merged to hide the $1 billion loss in the parent company.

There is a substantial difference between an individual who runs a small business and a major public corporation which has become bureaucratic. That is why Apple first removed Steve Jobs because he did not comply with bureaucratic procedures. When they then lost all creativity, they begged him to return.

Insofar as “human nature never changes,” once again I am not speaking of an individual but collectively as a society. We each have our own cycle in this journey for knowledge. If we are not complete fools who blame everyone else for their own mistakes (like Hillary), then we mature and learn from our mistakes. As children, parents inevitably warn their child not to place their finger in the flame of a candle. We all still do because we simply must experience that pain before we understand the power of fire and what it does.

I have also explained that there are no degrees you can get in trading. We all must be self-taught. The very concept of supply and demand was born in the mind of John Law (1671-1729). Since he was charged with murder for killing another man in a fair dual that was declared illegal, everyone else took advantage and plagiarized his discovery including Adam Smith. John Law gave birth to the concept of supply and demand because he was a trader on the floor of the first exchange in Amsterdam. There are some things you will NEVER discover unless you actually are involved in the experience.

Therefore, my statement that “human nature never changes” does not refer to an individual, for most intelligent people do not believe what they may have believed when they were a teenager. Mark Twain’s famous quote is spot-on: “When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.” There is even the quote of King Oscar II on how we are all socialists before 25 and become realists after 25 when we have to pay taxes.

You also mention that Moses renounced, in the name of God, as well the practice of usury. I have stated that we had usury laws up until Paul Volcker wanted to raise interest rates using Keynesian Economics to enable him to raise the discount rate to 14% in March 1981. Congress was eliminating usury laws by March 31, 1980. In order to fight inflation using Keynesianism, they never restored usury rates and thus they transferred a huge amount of wealth to bankers as they were now able to charge 20% on credit cards with no problem.

Private waves are inherently more volatile but the usury laws were all abandoned going into the peak of the Public Wave as the government was fighting for control. The government becomes much more aggressive and totalitarian during a Private Wave as they are losing power. But as they lose power, they ultimately turn against the very oligarchs who fed them to rise from the outset. The next financial crisis may not see Goldman Sachs walking on water. Politicians will turn against their benefactors to survive. This is typical during the final stages of the last 8.6-year wave within a Private Wave formation

Gold & the Future


QUESTION: Hi Marty

I hear what you are saying about the next gen and Gold vs BTC. To me it begs the question as to how the Next Gen’s look at crypto’s. Is there an argument that they like BTC etc because it is anonymous [mostly] and not part of the ‘system’. If that is the case, what will they think when Govs adopt sovereign crypto’s and outlaw BTC. Will they then look to gold and history?
Tx for all the wisdom,
Best HP

ANSWER: I think we have to draw a line in the sand at 2032-2037. Going into the end of this cycle, we will most likely still have the younger generations listening to people like Bernie who claim the problem is not government, but the rich. That argument has always led to bloodshed. I believe your question whether people will return to gold is more likely post-2032. We are looking at a fundamental change and the end of socialism, which is really just a means to expand government power. It is not only on the left. You have some on the right who want to use the law to enforce their religious beliefs upon others.

For cryptocurrencies and digital currencies to survive, they need a power grid. We are also facing turmoil as separatist movements expand everywhere. I do not believe that the government will allow private crypotocurrencies. They will outlaw them just as they did with gold in 1934

The Bond Market Crash post 2015.75


(2018 Interview)

COMMENT: Marty, I had to laugh that someone said you were wrong and the bond market in Europe did not crash. I asked, is there still a bond market when the ECB buys it all? All I got was a dumb look! Are these people really that stupid?

Keep up the good work.

EK

ANSWER: I know. Some people think there has been no bond market crash outside the USA simply because prices have not crashed since the central banks buy all the bonds. I have friends who work in banks. Many are retiring for the bond market no longer exists in Europe. If that is not a crash, then nothing is. They can manipulate the price all they want. But if nobody buys it then there is no free market.

 

Gold & the Slingshot


QUESTION: My reading of the gold was that for the slingshot up to dramatic new highs it needed the fakeout bear trap just below the 1000 mark. Since it took out your 1,362.50 number and the yearly bullish reversal at the end of 2019, does that mean the slingshot is now dead?  Do you think the shift to millennials and how they rush into Bernie’s arms means that gold is losing its luster for the next generation?

PL

ANSWER: I am preparing the new gold report. Basically, that slingshot is obviously dead as you say. This raises serious concerns about the future for gold. Yes, there is an important shift that takes place with these major generational evolutions. The gold standard died in 1971. Most people born after that do not see gold as money. Those who were born in the 1980s onward saw money as paper. Now we have those born post-1995 and they see no problem with cryptocurrencies and google wallets. Things are changing no doubt. You cannot judge the world with your personal beliefs. You may be just a couple of generations behind.

Socrates has been buying gold on the rally for the numbers are the numbers. That is the near-term view. What you are talking about is the viability of going forward into 2032. Without the slingshot, gold has lost a lot of its luster and that maybe indeed because of the generational shift. Smoking is being replaced by vapes and marijuana is being legalized. Things are changing as are the tax authorities. A legitimate company was trying to pay $181,000 in cash for several trucks in Cleveland and the government confiscated the cash and refuses to return it. They confiscated that money on a domestic flight – not international!!!!! The man was an employee sent by his employer. The TSA gave him $10,000 of the $191,000 and stole the balance.

You try to get on a plane with a roll of $20 gold coins they would probably confiscate it today because they presume all wealth is illegal so they get to take it. The very idea of gold as a replacement for the dollar is coming under attack. We will run the models on gold for without the slingshot, then the upside also comes down.

We will be issuing the 2020 Gold Report soon to sort out the real perspective long-term and well as short-term.

GMW 2-22-2020-C

Lebanon to Default in March?


 

We are likely to see Lebanon default on its payments in March after it has been downgraded deeper into junk bond territory by two of the three biggest credit rating companies on Friday. S&P Global Ratings cut the country’s long-term foreign currency rating to CC, which followed Moody’s Investors Service cut to Ca earlier in that day. That puts Lebanon among the likes of Argentina, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, other nations teetering near default.

The yield on Lebanon’s Eurobonds that mature next month has skyrocketed to more than 1,000%. We are looking at a default which is virtually certain. We will see rising social unrest in Lebanon and the economy will contract further. This will only intensify the expanding global liquidity crisis as smart capital begin to take a honest look at the entire emerging market area. This is contributing to the Repo Crisis for many banks are becoming concerned about who is holding whose debt.

Bernie’s Victory Inspires a Panic Next Week?


Just to let everyone know, since more than 50% of our clients are outside the USA, we have a very international reach with sources around the globe. Get prepared for volatility next week. Despite the Democrat’s personal hatred of Trump, the international view is that Trump is the ONLY sane leader in the world right now. The world is leaning so far to the left everywhere, capital is deeply concerned about where to hide. The #1 question we are getting from overseas:

What if Bernie beats Trump?

Capital can flee and seek shelter offshore. Labor cannot hoard itself nor move offshore. The average person is stuck for they cannot protect their labor so the working guy suffers the arrows that come from politicians who never understand that capital will just abandon their crazy agendas leaving only the wage earner to pay the bills which ends in revolution.

Bloomberg is the authoritarian dictator whose staff has just been “yes sir” and that was self-evident in his debate skills. He could not respond to negative attacks because he was not use to that. Bloomberg is really is no match for Trump no less Bernie. Despite all his money, he did not even make a respectable showing. He cannot buy the White House. Hillary tried that and spent 10x what Trump did and still failed.

The Democratic elites are beside themselves. They are not going to take this lightly. In United States politics, a brokered convention (sometimes referred to as an open convention and closely related to a contested convention) can occur during a presidential election when a political party fails to choose a nominee on the first round of delegate voting at the party’s nominating convention.

This time, the unpledged delegates, better known as superdelegates, will make up about 16% of Democratic Party delegates in 2020. These are the real party insiders who are not committed to voting based on the outcome of the state’s primary or caucus which flies in the face of the very purpose of primary voting. As Stalin said about elections, it is not the votes that matter, but who counts them.

The 2016 election was stolen from Bernie when many superdelegates announced early support for Hillary Clinton. The Democrats have claimed that they made a significant change for 2020. Superdelegates will no longer vote on the first ballot at the convention unless there is no doubt about the outcome. To win on the first ballot, the frontrunner must secure the majority of pledged delegates leading up to the Democratic Convention.  There are 3,979 total pledged delegates, so they are supposed to use the total required being 1,991. There is a loophole. If they can prevent Bernie from a majority on the first ballot, Hillary takes 16% again and they will then flip to her camp. That assumes they abide by this latest rule and do not change them again.

We are looking at the split of the Democrats for the elites are not about to accept Bernie and they will lose the financial support of both the corporates and the 1%. The rumblings are to draft Hillary. That will most likely be the straw that breaks the back of the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, brace yourself for while markets next week. We may begin to see European and Asian liquidation of equities in fear of the 2020 election ahead.

World Recession Outside USA?


Japan’s economic performance plummeted at the end of 2019, and a recession seems inevitable. The downturn in the land of the rising sun is a bad omen for the global economy. Nevertheless, the entire coronavirus scare has resulted in a sharp collapse in many areas globally that depend on tourism. We are seeing sharp declines in South East Asia, Hong Kong, and even in Dubai. We should expect that the first quarter numbers for many areas around the world will show recessionary trends. This is only further pushing the dollar higher as capital continues to flee from Asia, in particular, as well as Europe and heads into the dollar.

The Rise of the Left


QUESTION: Hi Marty
I work as a Professor of Surgery and read your blog every day. I’ve worked all over the world and remain intrigued by the changes your model is now predicting. Here in Ireland, we’ve seen a massive move towards the left with the recent general election results. Capital is fleeing in advance of a new left-wing government. Do you see this throughout Europe or will Britain remain immune from this change?
Many thanks
J

ANSWER: Yes. This shift to the left is really coming to a head and has been a primary mover for a capital flight to the dollar. The general view has been that Trump will win and this has given support to the US dollar, which is why the US economy has been the only thing to hold up right now.

The British economy will also hang in there and the best thing they could have done was to exit the EU. Europe will shift more to the left and Greenpeace has become a threat to the European economy just as Goldman Sachs was back in 2007.

We are involved in a period where the economic instabilities of past socialistic policies and unfunded pensions will push the left to be much more aggressive because they are losing ground. This is really the same pattern that emerged before the collapse in communism both in China and Russia. It was not some brilliant strategy from the USA, it was plain and simple economics that took down communism. We face the same thing here with socialism. They will get very aggressive in a desperate attempt to keep their dream alive.

Gold in Currencies & Cryptocurrencies


QUESTION #1: Marty; On the Private Blog 1/19, you wrote “When we look at the Weekly Array, we can also see volatility rising this coming week. The two key weeks ahead are those of 01/27 and 02/17. Therefore, failure to make a new high warns that we may see a retest of support ahead. We see February is a Double Directional Change. This is clearly warning that we have to play this by the numbers. Do not anticipate the future for when we look at the Overnight Volatility indicators, this too has begin to rise sharply here in January.”

We have reached your next target and during the week of 02/17. Is this all being driven by the Repo Crisis and what seems to be a panic to the dollar?

PS: Thank you Socrates. He has traded gold very nicely.

PH

QUESTION #2: I have read your blog for a few years, and to be honest since I’m so far from whats happen behind the shine, I really not understand everything. Then is the language against me as well since it’s not my native language.
Know to the question.
We who are a little older think gold is safe heaven. But if I talk to younger people do they see a future in cryptocurrency. I have read a lot about them. The best known is Bitcoin. The main issue is for payment. Then does it exist a few thousand others with many other characteristics, everything from follows golds, paying bus tickets to smart contracts. Whats is common of all those in the ledger is public and almost impossible to tamper with even for a state with all its resources. In a central database can a state always go in and change things, but in the blockchain is it not possible in the same way.
Some people think it will be internet 3.0
Money and value have been represented by many things throughout history.
How do you see on blockchain and its future?
Is it possible for governments to stop development in the long run?
Regards
BEk

QUESTION #3: The goldbugs are cheering the rally and you can see them foaming at the mouth. They really do get so emotional with every rally. You mentioned at the WEC and again in Vancouver that gold has been doing much better in foreign currencies which is why it has been rallying. Do you think the goldbugs will ever understand gold’s role in the financial system via the dollar? Or will they just always be wrong claiming the stock market and the dollar must crash so just buy gold?

DK

ANSWER: There were many markets which were lining up in February and then we have important turning points come May/June. There is clearly a panic to the dollar on a global scale and this is part of the Monetary Crisis Cycle we are headed into. It would have been nice to see a pull-back that would have created a fake sell-off in the share market etc, but this is shaping up to be something much more serious. With the insane machinations in politics with Bernie Sanders leading and Biden seems desperate at this point with Bloomberg trying to buy the White House, the 2020 election will certainly contribute to the instability later in the year.

The election of the Yearly Bullish Reversal in gold at the end of 2019 was a warning that we are facing this Monetary Crisis Cycle and we see the Euro dropping like a stone. The old scenario that the dollar must crash to see gold breakout is turning into a bedtime story for children. As I have warned many times, when the real crisis is upon us externally outside the USA, then gold would rise with the stock market and the US dollar. This is all about capital flows.

There is definitely a major shift among generations that does not speak well for gold long-term The older generations see gold as a safe haven but not the younger generations in India and China are still buying gold, but to a lesser extent than their parents. That is more of a hedge against their local currencies.

Even BitCoin was scheduled for a rally into February and it has yet to test the Downtrend Line. Here too, March remains as a Directional Change. As far as Blockchain is concerned, I do not think that is the issue. The pitch that was coming from the IMF under Legarde was that countries should create their own cryptocurrency and then she implied that they would effectively outlaw private cryptocurrencies. I believe, based upon reliable sources, that governments have stood-by to observe if the public would embrace electronic currencies. Once they became acceptable, then they would end paper money and private cryptocurrencies and force all money into their version where they could get 100% of the taxes they ever dreamed of. They will also use terrorism as a justification.

As far as looking at gold or anything in terms of currencies has never been a common trend. Nevertheless, it is critical to see the overall trend. I have stated MANY MANY MANY times that my definition of a REAL Bull Market is something that rises in ALL currencies. This is what gold has been doing since the Pi target on the ECM and once it elected the Monthly Bullish Reversal at 1362.50. We can see that in terms of Euros, gold broke out to the upside well in advance of its movement in dollars.

On the Pro Version of Socrates, you get the arrays for those who are more traders. There you can see the key days, weeks, and months. The goldbugs tend to keep preaching the very same scenario today that they did in 1975. Everything must crash and only gold survives. That is just not plausible. They tend to get a fresh crop of people to burn in an endless cycle. True, they are getting all emotional and are judging the entire next 10 years all because gold just exceeded $1600. How quickly they forget that every market oscillates up and down.

The Repo Crisis is a major liquidity crisis that reflects the collapse in confidence impacting Europe and Japan in particular. This is the precursor to the Monetary Crisis Cycle and the Mother of All Financial Crisis which is on the horizon.

Real Estate & Foreign Investment That Drives Up Prices


QUESTION: Hi Martin, Thank you for your free blog–I’ve learned heaps. I believe the greatest disservice a government can make is to allow foreign investment in real estate in their country. I have lived in Canada, New Zealand, and Australia where real estate is no longer affordable for many first home buyers. Inflated prices have destroyed the dreams of the citizens in these countries where empty (investment) houses are common. Governments have failed to protect the interests of the people. For first home buyers who manage to buy their first home they are burdened with astronomical mortgage repayments. I am wondering if Socrates saw this coming and what it anticipates will happen in the future.

Thank you.
PP

 

ANSWER: We have to understand the CAUSE of such capital movement. The more aggressive governments become with taxes, the more capital will seek to move. I have suggested that Europeans should open a bank account in a US bank that does NOT have branches in Europe. I have recommended that because the European government is highly Marxist, and it is a natural human instinct to leave. Capital can be moved, but labor cannot.

However, in many regions, real estate has risen also because of domestic shifts. In China and Italy especially, people have tended to look at real estate as a place to park money that is safe and outside the banking system. The rise in real estate has been greatly diverse and it is not entirely based upon capital inflows from foreign investors.

 

 

Then there is also the currency factor. I have written many times that I was living in London in 1985 when the pound fell to $1.03. The Americans were buying real estate in London like it was on sale at Harrods. The Brits saw the prices as exceptionally high and thought the Americans were going to lose a fortune. The pound nearly doubled, and in dollars they made a fortune. Remember when the Japanese were buying the trophy real estate in New York City? They also turned around and sold it back when the currency moved against them.

 

As far as Socrates and its forecasts on real estate, it is objective and looks at the patterns, cycles, and price movements on a daily basis.

Nothing is permanent. Everything flows in a cycle.