Category Guaranteed Basic Income

Jun 12 2023

The True Story of Hyperinflation


Amstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin?
For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one day we will see hyperinflation in Turkey?
And another example, is Yugoslavia: what caused the hyperinflation (in technical terms/capital flow perspective)? Are foreign investors getting rid of the dinars? Too many dinars than suddenly rushed back into Yugoslavia causing hyperinflation?
Regards,
Magdalena Š.

ANSWER: The misnomer about hyperinflation is that it is caused by printing money. It is a RESPONSE to the collapse in the confidence of the government.  If we look at the 3rd century, this is where we find the greatest number of hoards of ancient coins. What began this was the capture of Valerian I by the Persians in 260AD.

Valerian was the first Roman Emperor to be captured and Rome was unable to recuse him. That shook the confidence of the Roman people, but it also was a signal to the barbarian tribes in the North that if the Persians could do it, they could as well. Within 10 years, Emperor Aurelian constructed the great wall around Rome. Never before did Romans have such a defensive wall. That had a powerful army.

There was a trend toward debasing the silver coinage which began with Nero to try to fund the rebuilding of Rome after the Great Fire. But that did not undermine the confidence in the Roman Monetary System any more than our perpetual deficit spending since World War II.

However, a spark is ignited and suddenly that trend turns into what I have called a Waterfall event in the purchasing power of the currency. Such an event has taken various forms. However, the end result is the collapse in the confidence of the government and as a result, that is when you get that waterfall event.

In the case of Germany, Yugoslavia, Hungary, etc, there was a 1918 Revolution where communists seized power and the emperor of Germany lost power. In that case, they actually asked Russia to take Germany after their revolution in 1917. This was the beginning of the Weimar Republic.

Germany was saddled with reparation payments demanded by France. First, you had a communist revolution and people with capital began to flee to other places in Europe or certainly move their money out of German banks. It was this drain of wealth that forced the Weimar Republic to print money to try to make their reparation payments. Then in December 1922, they seized 10% of everyone’s assets and handed them a bond.

Here you can see that after that December 1922 confiscation, hyperinflation simply took over. It was NOT the printing of money that caused the hyperinflation it was the collapse of confidence FIRST which then compels the government to expand the money supply lacking taxation revenues etc.

I suspect the spark this time may be the Digital Currency and the proposed cancellation of paper currency. This is why people are moving to anything tangible from real estate, gold, silver, ancient coins, and even equities. With DIGITAL CURRENCY they will have capital controls and prevent you from even moving money outside of your country.

The precise day of the ECM was the announcement of the IMF Digital Currency which they intend to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. This may be timed with the turning point in 2024. It is unlikely that they would cancel paper currencies before the 2024 election. This is all being

May 11 2023

Medical Schools Eliminating MCAT in Favor of Diversity


Armstrong Economics Blog/WOKE Re-Posted May 11, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is “a standardized, multiple-choice examination designed to assess your problem-solving, critical thinking, and knowledge of natural, behavioral, and social science concepts and principles prerequisite to the study of medicine.” Students wishing to study medicine needed to pass this examination to determine if they were suitable for the profession. Now, in the name of diversity, some medical schools no longer require potential doctors to pass this exam because it is seen as racist.

A watchdog group called Do No Harm stated that this is a “dangerous trend.” “The MCAT has been shown to predict who has the best chance to be successful in medical school,” Do No Harm Program Manager Laura Morgan told the DCNF. “Eliminating it removes a proven standard for schools to consider when admitting students who demonstrate the aptitude to be good doctors.” Around 40 medical schools across the US are abandoning the MCAT already.

The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the same agency that developed the MCAT, is pivoting away from the old model to test future doctors on holistic measures. They cannot mandate that medical schools require students to take or pass this examination. Some schools, like CUNY, have stated their goals clearly. CUNY wishes to “increase the number of physicians of African-American, Hispanic and other ethnic backgrounds who have been historically under-represented in the medical profession and whose communities have been historically underserved by primary care practitioners.” I don’t know about you, but I do not care about my doctor’s ethnic background, sexual orientation, or gender. I simply want to speak to the most qualified individual. If they wanted to attract more bright minds, they could eliminate the costs of admission to enter the profession in the first place. Medical students are strapped with hundreds of thousands in debt and arguably underpaid as residents.

Medical deaths are the third-leading cause of death in the US. Around 251,000 people die every year in the US as a result of medical malpractice. Diminishing qualifications for doctors who are expected to make life and death decisions is a major threat to public health.

This is happening in important roles across every sector as the woke agenda destroys our culture from within. Biden boasted how he managed to appoint numerous LBGTQ members to his cabinet, more than any other president. Does anyone care? Most of us want the most qualified individuals in positions of power.

May 10 2023

US City to Roll Out Guaranteed Basic Income


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted May 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The “Rise Up Cambridge: Cash Payments for Families with Kids” will provide low-income households with a monthly check for $500 to test guaranteed basic income. Those eligible are families with children who earn under 250% of the federal poverty level ($75K for a family of four). The 18-month program will not be based on a lottery like other guaranteed basic income rollouts, and anyone eligible may apply. The city has allotted $22 million for the initiative and expects around 2,000 families to apply.

The money to fund the program will primarily come from the American Rescue Plan, distributing our Federal tax dollars to others, and some independent donors will pitch in too. This program is only eligible for people with children under 21 and will not make a noticeable dent in the homeless population, nor will it help the elderly who live alone. That said, families with children already receive the most in Federal funds and if they’re living in high-cost Cambridge, chances are they’re receiving income elsewhere. The cost of living in Cambridge is 73% higher than the national average. The median rental price is around $4,277 per month, and the median home price is over $1.4 million.

“We want to stabilize as many households as possible and make sure that they have a chance to continue to stay in our city that, you know, is not easy to stay in,” Cambridge Mayor Sumbul Siddiqui stated. A $500 payment in a high-cost city will never financially stabilize families. Instead, it will increase inflation and bypasses the middle class. Unlike traditional welfare programs, those eligible will receive direct deposit payments that they may spend as they see fit.

The American Rescue plan was not marketed as a guaranteed basic income initiative. Siddiqui is buying votes with Federal funds. The city is pricing out the middle class by providing handouts to those who cannot afford to live in an expensive city. Free money becomes like a drug and the people become hooked on receiving that monthly direct deposit. But, as with all drug, they will become dependent and will need more and more as the cost of living increases. This will only incentivize people to not work and vote for politicians who promise handouts at the expense of responsible taxpayers.