Category U. S. CIA-NSA-FBI

May 17 2022

The Twitter Bot Inquiry Intensifies as Musk is Seemingly Stiff Armed


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

The ramifications for Twitter surrounding fake users or algorithmic bots are considerable.  One issue is overcharging advertisers for ad impressions based on mDAU’s, which are “monetized Daily Active Users.”  The second issue is an outcome of the first and relates to the valuation of Twitter.  If Twitter bots are higher than Twitter estimates, then the mDAU rate is overstated.

Elon Musk is indicating there may need to be a lowering of the purchase price unless Twitter becomes transparent with how they are calculating the number of bot users at less than 5%.  All outside reviews attempting to estimate the number of fake accounts, or bots, puts the estimations considerably higher than the claims by Twitter.  Elon Musk tweeted:

At “The All In Summit 2022,” Elon Musk gave the impression the purchase price of Twitter may be tenuous.  He said that a deal with a lower price tag is not “out of the question,” Bloomberg reported.  “Currently, what I’m being told is that there’s just no way to know the number of bots… It’s like, as unknowable as the human soul,” Musk said at the Miami conference, per a social media video, Bloomberg added.

Twitter CEO Parag Agrwal has responded to the controversy in a very obtuse twitter thread:

Let’s talk about spam. And let’s do so with the benefit of data, facts, and context…

First, let me state the obvious: spam harms the experience for real people on Twitter, and therefore can harm our business. As such, we are strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can, every single day. Anyone who suggests otherwise is just wrong.

Next, spam isn’t just ‘binary’ (human / not human). The most advanced spam campaigns use combinations of coordinated humans + automation. They also compromise real accounts, and then use them to advance their campaign. So – they are sophisticated and hard to catch.

Some final context: fighting spam is incredibly *dynamic*. The adversaries, their goals, and tactics evolve constantly – often in response to our work! You can’t build a set of rules to detect spam today, and hope they will still work tomorrow. They will not.

We suspend over half a million spam accounts every day, usually before any of you even see them on Twitter. We also lock millions of accounts each week that we suspect may be spam – if they can’t pass human verification challenges (captchas, phone verification, etc).

The hard challenge is that many accounts which look fake superficially – are actually real people. And some of the spam accounts which are actually the most dangerous – and cause the most harm to our users – can look totally legitimate on the surface.

Our team updates our systems and rules constantly to remove as much spam as possible, without inadvertently suspending real people or adding unnecessary friction for real people when they use Twitter: none of us want to solve a captcha every time we use Twitter.

Now, we know we aren’t perfect at catching spam. And so this is why, after all the spam removal I talked about above, we know some still slips through. We measure this internally. And every quarter, we have estimated that <5% of reported mDAU for the quarter are spam accounts.

Our estimate is based on multiple human reviews (in replicate) of thousands of accounts, that are sampled at random, consistently over time, from *accounts we count as mDAUs*. We do this every quarter, and we have been doing this for many years.

Each human review is based on Twitter rules that define spam and platform manipulation, and uses both public and private data (eg, IP address, phone number, geolocation, client/browser signatures, what the account does when it’s active…) to make a determination on each account.

The use of private data is particularly important to avoid misclassifying users who are actually real. FirstnameBunchOfNumbers with no profile pic and odd tweets might seem like a bot or spam to you, but behind the scenes we often see multiple indicators that it’s a real person.

Our actual internal estimates for the last four quarters were all well under 5% – based on the methodology outlined above. The error margins on our estimates give us confidence in our public statements each quarter.

Unfortunately, we don’t believe that this specific estimation can be performed externally, given the critical need to use both public and private information (which we can’t share). Externally, it’s not even possible to know which accounts are counted as mDAUs on any given day.

There are LOTS of details that are very important underneath this high-level description. We shared an overview of the estimation process with Elon a week ago and look forward to continuing the conversation with him, and all of you.  (Link to Twitter Article)

Methinks Parag Agrwal doth protest too much….  Especially if you overlay the ideological incentives that Twitter carries into its operational platform.

If you accept that Twitter is manipulating the public conversation intentionally (they are), then Twitter bots would serve an ideological function.  However, the issue of ‘bots’ operating on the Twitter platform is interesting when you consider the cost of platform operation.

On one hand, extensive auto-generated ‘bots’ would be an issue of cost and data-processing, a net negative.  On the other hand, the use of bots would be a manipulative practice for the creation of false impressions to generate advertising revenue.

If the scale of data-processing was subsidized, an outcome of a network of data processing centers -the AWS cloud- linked to government resources, the bots would not be a cost issue for the operation.  Despite the false impressions generated, bots would, however, under this weird situation, be useful for the manipulation of the conversation.

At the root of Elon Musk’s line of inquiry is the need to discover if this suspicion is true.

If the scale of bots has been underestimated (likely by a willfully blind operation) the advertising fees charged by Twitter were potentially fraudulent.  This is another operational reason (mitigating lawsuits from advertisers) for Musk to make the determination prior to the final purchase of the platform.

Taking Twitter private as a company, eliminating bots (which is essentially removing fraudulent users) then carries the potential benefits of both lowering costs and positioning the company to increase genuine ad revenue from authenticated users as real people.

Many people suspect the size of the political left on the Twitter platform is manipulated by programatic bots.  Meaning there seems to be more people on the left side of the spectrum because bots are deployed to give the impression of like-minded users.  I am one of the people who believe this suspicion is accurate, because it would be a typical way the ideological left operates.

The bots would be in addition to the deployment of algorithms that are designed to suppress speech the platform operators do not like.

I have long suspected the Twitter algorithm process is essentially assigning certain users into specifically designed data-processing containers where their voice is suppressed.   Some people call this ‘shadow-banning,’ I simply call it suppression.

Elon Musk represents a threat to the way the platform was/is designed to operate.  If Musk removes the discussion constraints, opens the containers and removes the restrictions, while simultaneously eliminating bots and fake accounts, the entire perspective of the platform could change very quickly.  This is what I think the current board and operators are trying to avoid.

Another rudimentary way to look at it…. Think about the last several months of public opinion polls.   Despite the efforts of a compliant media, repeatedly we see a 75/25 split against Biden and leftist policies.  The 3:4 and/or 4:5 ratio has been a consistent pattern for several months.  That ratio shows up in almost every poll.  However, if you look at Twitter that ratio is not present in the “organic” conversation about the same issues.

As CTH has said for many years, there are more of us than them.  However, Big Tech controls the mechanisms we use to communicate – and as a consequence the scale of our assembly is severely understated.

Twitter user fraud is the digital and social media equivalent to voter election fraud.   The voices raised in opposition to researching both issues are exactly the same.

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious….

May 17 2022

Erdogan Will Not Accept Sweden and Finland into NATO Until He Extracts Concessions for Former Positions Against Interests of Turkey


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

Turkey as a member of NATO has always been a thorny and multi-layered geopolitical issue.  In the latest chapter of the dynamic, Turkish President Recep Erdogan, a man with visions of his own grandiose importance as the leader of the next Ottoman empire, has said Sweden and Finland do not warrant entry into NATO because they have held positions adverse to the interests of Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood.

As the entry point from the middle east into Europe, Erdogan has long leveraged his gatekeeper status to create an oversized influence of power.  When the EU formally declared the era of multiculturalism was failing 2012, and Islamic extremists were carrying out terrorism attacks all over the NATO alliance, Erdogan leveraged his ability to open the floodgates from Syria to gain additional financial benefits.

On one hand, when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in northern Syria, Erdogan hid behind the skirt of NATO seeking protection from Russian retaliation.  On the other hand, when the U.S. refused to give Turkey missile defense systems, Erdogan buried the hatchet with Putin and purchased Russian missile defense systems.   President Erdogan plays all sides in advancing his interests.

In the latest development, what Joe Manchin is to the leftist agenda of Joe Biden, Erdogan is playing that role toward the globalist agenda of NATO.  The big picture behind Erdogan’s priorities is always connected to the agenda of the Brotherhood.

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Swedish and Finnish delegations should not bother coming to Ankara to convince it to approve their NATO bid.

Sweden’s government has formally decided to apply for NATO membership, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Monday, a day after Finnish President Sauli Niinisto confirmed that Helsinki will also apply for membership.

Turkey surprised its NATO allies last week by saying it would not view their applications positively, mainly citing their history of hosting members of groups Ankara deems terrorists.

In a news conference on Monday, Erdogan repeated that Turkey would not approve their bids to join NATO, calling Sweden a “hatchery” for terrorist organisations, and adding it had terrorists in its parliament.

[…]  NATO and the United States said they were confident Turkey would not hold up membership of Finland and Sweden.

Diplomats said Erdogan would be under pressure to yield as Finland and Sweden would greatly strengthen NATO in the Baltic Sea.

Erdogan’s spokesman said on Saturday that Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities.  (read more)

Recep Erdogan can see the global cleaving underway, and he will position himself to use the geopolitical agenda of the western alliance to build out his continued quest to recreate a new Ottoman empire.  That’s his legacy agenda.

President Erdogan is sketchy and cunning…

May 17 2022

Biden Redeploys U.S. Combat Troops to Somalia, Reversing Trump Draw Down


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 16, 2022 | Sundance

Democrats love war, even when they have to go looking for one.  The New York Times is reporting that Joe Biden has signed a Defense Dept order authorizing 700 combat troops to redeploy to Somalia, reversing the Trump-era troop withdrawal.

WASHINGTON — President Biden has signed an order authorizing the military to once again deploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia — largely reversing the decision by President Donald J. Trump to withdraw nearly all 700 ground troops who had been stationed there, according to four officials familiar with the matter.

In addition, Mr. Biden has approved a Pentagon request for standing authority to target about a dozen suspected leaders of Al Shabab, the Somali terrorist group that is affiliated with Al Qaeda, three of the officials said. Since Mr. Biden took office, airstrikes have largely been limited to those meant to defend partner forces facing an immediate threat.

Together, the decisions by Mr. Biden, described by the officials on the condition of anonymity, will revive an open-ended American counterterrorism operation that has amounted to a slow-burn war through three administrations. (read more)

May 16 2022

Inflation Crippling Low-Income Americans


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted May 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We went from a booming economy to staring down the next recession. Inflation has reached 8.3%, and most Americans are troubled that they will no longer be able to afford their standard of living. According to the latest Gallup poll, 52% reported that they are fearful about maintaining their standard of living. Some may say, “So what? The rich will have to sell off one mansion and fly commercial!” The people who will feel the brunt of this economic downturn are lower-income earners.

Among those earning under $40,000 annually, 73% said they no longer believe they can afford basic living necessities, up from 56% a year prior. About 65% of lower-income Americans worry about having enough money to pay their monthly bills, while 59% say they fear they’ll no longer be able to afford housing. In fact, more lower-income renters should be concerned about the rising cost of housing because landlords will pass their increased costs on to their tenants at a time when rental costs are already at an all-time high.

Medical bills, the leading cause of bankruptcy, are of the utmost concern. Seventy-two percent of lower-income earners said they cannot afford an emergency medical event, and 62% cannot afford basic medical care. These fears are not unfounded and we are looking at a major crisis on the horizon.

May 16 2022

European Union Pushing for Mass Surveillance


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted May 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Censorship is now normalized in the West. The European Union has concocted its own way to spy on citizens under the pretense of protecting children from predators. The “chat control” law, if passed, would permit the EU to access private, chats, emails, text messages, and calls. The program will even allow the government to view messages sent on gaming systems such as X-Box. We have reached dystopian levels of mass surveillance.

The legislation would allow the government to view communications in real-time. The European Parliament passed a similar law in July 2021 on a smaller scale. This new adoption would no longer be voluntary and will involve the entire population. There were opposing members when the initial measure passed in July, and 72% of EU citizens said they opposed mass surveillance.

German Pirate Party Member of the European Parliament Patrick Breyer called it “totalitarian logic” and warned that “our post, our smartphones or our bedrooms could also be generally monitored. Unleashing such denunciation machines on us is ineffective, illegal and irresponsible.” That day has now come as the union is requesting unlimited access to our private lives.

Edward Snowden warned that this breach of privacy would span across the globe. The government no longer needs warrants or probable cause. If you ever feel alone, remember that the government is always there with you.

May 16 2022

Clinton, Epstein, and a Mysterious Death


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted May 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Reminder: Jeffrey Epstein did not kill himself. The media stopped covering Ghislaine Maxwell’s trial but she is still alive and so are her secrets. She is imprisoned for sex trafficking, but not one abuser has been identified or brought to justice. The media failed to mention that she recently agreed to reveal the names of the alleged sex ring members in exchange for a reduced sentence. If she were to produce the names of high-profile clients, such as politicians, that would only help her case.

Epstein likely blackmailed high-profile individuals by using underage girls as bait. Bill Clinton was one of those individuals, allegedly, and the man linking Clinton to Epstein just died under mysterious circumstances. Clinton’s former special advisor Mark Middleton passed away at the age of 59 in a “sudden” death, according to his family. In 1994, the Clinton campaign asked Middleton to seek out funds from Les Wexner, and his money manager was none other than Jeffrey Epstein.

Bill had been linked to Epstein ever since and allegedly granted him access to the White House numerous times. Middleton is the original link between Clinton and Epstein and even flew on the Lolita Express. The Clintons initially disposed of Middleton, politically, in 1995 after they accused him of abusing “access to impress business clients and he was barred from the executive mansion without senior approval” and there was a probe against him the following year.

Middleton left politics entirely and lived a life out of the spotlight. Yet, the connection remained. As soon as Maxwell stated she would reveal her client list, Middleton suddenly passed away. Coincidence? What names will Maxwell reveal, and will the media cover the story?

May 16 2022

Switzerland Joining the Warmongering Crowd


Armstrong Economics Blog/Switzerland Re-Posted May 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The propaganda machine has been working at full speed. Sweden and Finland have been convinced to join NATO and now we have reports from within Switzerland that they too are contemplating surrendering their neutrality and joining the end times for Europe. Switzerland’s defense ministry is moving closer to NATO. They have violated their neutrality already by confiscating Russian assets. So in for a penny, in for a pound as they say. Switzerland is contemplating joint military exercises with NATO and they will be joining the fun and games post-2024 as well. So you better stock up on the Swiss chocolate. They may end up extinct after 2024. Perhaps they should recall the Swiss guards they lend to the Vatican. They may come in handy.

Markets never lie. The Swiss franc has gone into a free fall ever since we heard from behind the curtain that the Swiss government is yielding to the pleas from the West to join NATO. That is surrendering their neutrality and the markets are warning that Switzerland is no longer the safe harbor for capital.

Indeed, we certainly have the worst possible crop of world leaders EVERYWHERE. There is not a single political decision that anyone can possibly even call reasonable. We even had the insanity of Boris Johnson threatening to strike Russia with nukes outside of NATO. Just one nuke from Russia will take out all of Great Britain. This pounding of chests is not going to do anything but hurl us toward war so they can do this Great Rest and default on world debt because they have run the largest Ponzi scheme in human history.

I have a lot of European friends who have asked if they can flee here to Florida and hide under my bed. Unfortunately, I don’t think my bed is big enough to meet all the requests.

As I have written before, there are NO peacemakers – only warmongers. There is a better way. We can restructure the debt as I would do for a corporation in crisis. We do not need this warmongering and Klaus Schwab’s grand plan will fail just as Marx did. The United Nations will NEVER rule the world despite their thirst for power which was even mentioned in the charter of UNESCO.

Switzerland is in serious trouble. Going into 2023 is crazy then a Panic Cycle comes into play for 2024. This is not my personal opinion. I have created a computer that has NEVER been wrong on its geopolitical forecasts. I know I cannot scream loud enough to change the cycle. All I can do is plead for the world to look and just maybe we can live with the cycles post-2032 and create a better world just for once.

As for my friend in Switzerland – sorry, you can’t hide under your beds there. And yes, I got a dog I named Napoleon because I looked at my computer and knew I will not be visiting Europe again in my lifetime. So it was time to settle down. She’s always by my side.

May 16 2022

Sweden & Finland Joining NATO


Armstrong Economics Blog/Scandinavia Re-Posted May 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty, hope all is well.

All indications are that Sweden and Finland will join NATO. However, both countries refuse to allow nuclear weapons to be placed in their countries.

Russia still threatens reprisals.

Does Putin have any reasons to attack Sweden and Finland before their respective NATO applications are a fact?

If no nuclear warheads are placed in Finland nor Sweden, what do you think the Russian response will be against Sweden and Finland in the end?

Kind Regards/MS

ANSWER: We do not see any indication that Russia will attack Finland and Sweden before joining NATO that would involve a prolonged event.  However, note that the computer did have a Double Directional Change here in 2022 which reflects the political change that is unfolding. War does not appear in that region until 2027-2028.

I am working feverishly to get what I hope will be a book on the coming World War III based upon the computer projection rather than my opinion. Unclassified documents have surfaced confirming that actually Putin is correct – NATO had promised not to move one inch eastward and that Eastern Europe was to be a buffer zone of nutrality. NATO has been the agressor and they are NOT ever interested in peace because if there was really peace, then there is no need for NATO and all those people would lose jobs.

As most people know, my sources are dammed good. When the Russians were building a secret unground facility, even Margaret Thatcher asked me if I had any information since their intelligence was coming up short. Our clients are of a like mind regardless of the nation in which they reside. There are always people in every country who oppose whatever current government is in power. That is just humanity. Even during the American Revolution, there were people who supported the king and they confiscated their property to fund the war.

There is so much behind the scenes that people just do not know like why Crimea was handed to Ukraine in 1954? Nikita Khrushchev was raised in the Donbas and actually considered himself from that region being born just 7 miles from the border between Ukraine and Russia. It was Khrushchev who rebuilt Kyiv after World War II for he was in charge of that province before he rose to national power. Khrushchev also was redrawing borders elsewhere. He was removed in 1964 for his hair-brain ideas and his confrontation with the US over stuffing missiles in Cuba in 1962. What Ukraine wants to do pushing the world into war over territorial grab, the world needs to know the Truth. All of Khrushchev’s redesigning borders was reversed and that included Crimea which they ruled was an illegal act.

I am putting together the full story covering both sides. We all have a right to know. NATO wants war and this is a war to exterminate Russia. Ukraine is the proxy war as our computer forecast back in 2013 that this would be the place where it all begins. The West could care less how many Ukrainians die – civilians or otherwise. Their purpose is to weaken Russia and only then will NATO act. Next will then be China.

May 16 2022

Pennsylvania Senate Candidate Kathy Barnette Appears on Fox News to Answer Critics


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 15, 2022 | Sundance

Pennsylvania Senate Candidate Kathy Barnette appeared on Fox News Sunday with Shannon Bream to answer questions about her prior positions, statements and current candidacy.  Barnette has climbed in the polls and is in a tight race for the PA senate seat.

There has been an onslaught of criticism and critique in opposition to Kathy Barnette.  Many political followers are concerned she might win the primary but then get crushed in the general election due to inflammatory statements in her past.  This interview was a great opportunity for her to calm the nerves of republican primary voters and instill confidence. Unfortunately, Barnette did not do well in this interview.  WATCH:

Shannon Bream was fair and gave Barnette plenty of time to explain her positions.   Pennsylvania voters will need to make their own decisions.  Trust your instincts; if you sense sketchy, it is likely because sketchy exists.

May 16 2022

Sunday Talks, Bartiromo Interviews Nunes and Patel About Sussmann Trial


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 15, 2022 | Sundance

In the second segment of the interview with Maria Bartiromo, Devin Nunes and Kash Patel discuss the trial of Michael Sussmann which begins tomorrow. {Direct Rumble Link}

Ultimately the issue in the Michael Sussmann trial is quite simple:

Did the DOJ and FBI know the material Michael Sussmann was giving them came from the Hillary Clinton campaign?

We all know the answer to that question, of course they did.  However, there has been –and continues to be– a game of grand pretense from the DOJ/FBI group where they pretend not to have known.

Two groups: the “insider group” (DOJ/FBI) and the “outsider group” (Perkins Coie, Fusion GPS, Clinton campaign, Sussmann, Elias, Mook, etc).

Claiming the DOJ and FBI were duped, is the government firewall that protects the inside group.  However, this claim is now against the interest of Michael Sussmann who has been accused of false representation and lying to the FBI about the provenance of the information he provided.

In her capacity as the DOJ lawyer assigned to the office of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, Lisa Page played a role in evaluating the provenance of the concocted Trump-Russia information given to McCabe via FBI Chief Legal Counsel James Baker (who received it from Sussmann).

Lisa Page (above left) is legally represented by Amy Jeffries (above right), who is the wife of the trial judge (Michael Cooper) in the Sussmann case.  So, think about it…

…The FBI lawyer (Lisa Page) in charge of vetting the provenance of the fraudulent material from Clinton (via Sussmann), retains legal services from the wife of the Judge now determining whether the provenance was accurately disclosed by Sussmann.

You can’t make this stuff up.

Everyone knows the FBI was aware the Sussmann material (Trump-Russia fabrications) came from Clinton’s campaign.

Lisa Page knew the material she reviewed came from Hillary Clinton. However, everyone in the DOJ and FBI has to pretend they didn’t know, or else they’re in deep shit.

So, this grand pretense is taking place, where everyone inside govt (DOJ/FBI) is pretending not to know the Sussmann stuff came from Hillary Clinton, and everyone outside government (Fusion, Clinton, Perkins Coie, Sussmann, Elias et al) is saying the govt (DOJ/FBI) did know the provenance, or else the outside team would be in big shit for lying or perpetrating fraud.

Enter Special Prosecutor John Durham amid this game of great pretense. That’s really what the Michael Sussmann trial boils down to.

INSIDERS – DOJ/FBI saying they didn’t know (or else trouble).

OUTSIDERS – Sussman saying the DOJ/FBI did know (or else trouble).

The “didn’t know” -vs- “did know” is the firewall between the INSIDERS and the OUTSIDERS. Put another way, the DOJ/FBI were duped -vs- the DOJ/FBI were complicit.

As long as INSIDERS can claim they were duped, they are safe. However, if the OUTSIDERS prove the INSIDERS were not duped, then the spotlight shifts.

If Sussmann wins, it means the DOJ/FBI lose. If Sussmann loses, it means the DOJ/FBI firewall remains intact.

Same thing, another way: If Durham wins, it means the INSIDERS are safe. If Durham loses, it means the INSIDERS are exposed.

That’s why the majority of the previous media participants are not writing about the trial. For them, the dynamics are tenuous. They want Sussmann to win, but the media don’t want their INSIDERS exposed. If the insiders are exposed it means the DOJ and FBI knew the information came from Hillary Clinton, AND they pushed that false Trump-Russia information into the media via leaks.

Then the story circles around to the media claiming they were duped by the DOJ and FBI feeding them false information – versus the media admitting they knew the information was false, yet they used the method of reception from the DOJ/FBI to enhance the credibility of claims they knew were fraudulent.

It’s all FUBAR. A through the looking glass game of grand pretense. A public pantomime of silliness and abject nuttery.

Everyone involved, both inside and outside government, are still pretending not to know things.

The trial is ridiculous theater, created to give the illusion of legitimacy to a series of events and investigations that is designed around this game of pretending.

One example of the nuttery. Judge Christopher Cooper is the trial judge. If Michael Sussmann is NOT Guilty, it means the FBI did know he was representing Hillary Clinton when he passed the information along. That means the DOJ/FBI insiders are exposed.

If the DOJ/FBI insiders are exposed, Lisa Page could need Judge Cooper’s wife again.