Is the World Political Economy Melting Down?


Meltdown

We entered a private wave during July 1985 after 51.6 years of a public wave that began in 1932. The private sector went nuts when the bankers and foreign governments were conducting massive fraud. The people turned to government and created the public wave that peaked in 1981.35 with the peak in interest rates. By the turning point in 1985, government began attempting to seize and maintain control of the economy to compel it to perform as they desired. That became known as the Plaza Accord, which gave birth to the G5 (now G20). When that occurred, we took the back cover of the Economist Magazine in 1985 every week of that month to announce the return of inflation and shift from deflation during 1981-1985, which ended that private wave and started a new private wave.

The point within the current business cycle wave as defined by the Economic Confidence Model was 2015.75. That was the turning point in confidence within government. We can see that now as 65% of Americans think Hillary is dishonest. That is a greater percentage than any president in history has won from a popular vote.

Hillary most likely has Parkinson’s disease, but she is determined to be the first woman president so to hell with the world or the nation. Our prospects for the future look dim at best.

Troika-Unelected

Then add to this the insanity Europe who is also captured in the grip of unelected people who are running a totalitarian state. The people have no right to even vote to remove any of the Troika. We have lost our independence, our integrity, and our freedom. The world political economy is melting down before our eyes, but these people still seek to brainwash our children and pretend they are fighting for liberty and justice when there is none left. This has become a world that is all about those in power, and we have become the great unwashed.

The Federal Reserve confronts a possibility it never expected: No exit.


That is where it is at that is true; if the leave rates low the pension funds go bust if the raise the interest rates to save the pension funds the government goes brook sadly its one or the other. The FED can not save both!

The Coming Dark Age


dark-age

QUESTION:

Mr. Armstrong,

Thank you for the time you are spending to educate the public about what it really going on. I have followed your work for years, from before you were released from prison. Over the years you have made several comments about directional changes and have alluded to the idea that a crossroads is coming in that we will either enter another Dark Age or we will see the light towards greater liberty and freedom. More recently, you mentioned the year 2032 as a critical year in this regard.

In addition, you have mentioned that Trump winning the election would postpone the inevitable chaos, but that HRC winning would speed it along.

In terms of the distal effects of the November election on 2032, does either Trump or Clinton winning increase the likelihood of entering a Dark Age over something more hopeful? Should we be attempting to kick the can down the road or should we get it over with?

Thanks again for your service.

HA, Ph.D.

obama-change-we-can-believe-in

ANSWER: Hillary is just corrupt and rotten to the core. She represents everything that is wrong with our political economy. Politicians no longer care about the people. Every election promises “change” in some variation. That is admitting something is broken, but it always comes down to the same thing – it’s just about them.

twain-mark-if-voting-made-any-difference-they-would-not-let-us-do-it

Indeed, it was Mark Twain who put it best during the last century: If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” We must understand that this has been an age old battle between the rulers and the people. In Athens where Democracy was born, they constantly fought to seize power back and even made Pericles stand trial. Government has always sought to bribe the people creating a welfare state. The Romans knew that the way top power was to promise everything but give them bread and circuses (sport games) and they could maintain power. It was Decimus Iūnius Iuvenālis, commonly known as Juvenal, who was a Roman poet active in the late 1st and early 2nd century AD that wrote that phrase:

… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses

[…] iam pridem, ex quo suffragia nulli / uendimus, effudit curas; nam qui dabat olim / imperium, fasces, legiones, omnia, nunc se / continet atque duas tantum res anxius optat, / panem et circenses. […]

(Juvenal, Satire 10.77–81)

Nothing has changed. Many people can name every person on some sports team but cannot name their political minister, congressman, or whatever lofty title they call themselves. The judge in a courtroom demands to be called “honorable” as do all public servants. They make a mockery of the very word.

athen550We are approaching the grave danger of a Dark Age beginning from the aftermath of 2032. Hopefully, I will be gone by then and will not have to face this horrible event. Yet Dark Ages are reoccurring events throughout history and in all cultures. The Greeks endured their between the Homeric Age that marked the end of the Mycenaean civilization around 1100 BC, to the first signs of the Greek cities (poleis) rising again in the 6th century BC (508–322 BC). It was during the 9th century BC (900-801BC) that we begin to see the rise of great cities outside of Greece including Carthage, which was founded by the Phoenicians.

Japan went through its Dark Age, which also lasted about 600 years and the same impact was endured in Europe with the collapse of Rome in 476AD. Dark Ages seem to come in units of 3 so they are 300 or 600 years. The cause is always political corruption.

Japanese-Debasement 760-958AD

In the case of Japan, each new emperor devalued the money in circulation with a decree that it was worth 10% of his new coins. There was no intrinsic value since they were bronze of iron. This process led people NOT to hoard money. Chinese coins were sought after since they would not be devalued. Eventually, nobody would accept Japanese coins and the ceased to be issued for 600 years. People used Chinese coins or bags of rice.

roman-follis-295-348ad

The Roman Monetary Crisis that saw silver vanish by 268AD, was naturally followed by  an attempt to restore the monetary system. A new bronze coin was introduced in 295AD known as the Follis. Again, one 52 year cycle saw its collapse from over 16 grams to under just 2 grams.

zenonis

By the time you come toward the very end of the Roman Empire, you rarely find any bronze and when you do, it is less than an American penny. Coinage is debased because of the corruption in government. Those who think restoring the gold standard would do anything are wrong. Such monetary reforms appear repeatedly throughout history with little lasting impact. The system as we known it is always doomed to failure simply because we are satisfied as a whole with bread and circuses and let politicians run wild in their greed. Hillary is the example for everyone to see.

I will gather all the accounts and this is on much bucket-list of books to complete. We do have a choice. We can understand what is coming and WHY, and perhaps take that first step out of darkness and move into the light of a realistic political system that ends the bribing of citizens and this eternal battle of political corruption. We need a REAL democracy without career politicians. Only then can we hope to advance as a society.

Libya: the Two Realities


Thank Hillary for this mess!

Russia Trumps USA Energy War in Mideast


Energy is key for any want to be world war; that is why Obama is stopping the US energy development and actually allowing the same to be exported to others for use. This would make us a third world country supping resources to others to use!

Canada’s Household Debt Exceeds Total GDP for First Time


credit-cards

us-household-debtFor the first time in history, the total private debt of the Canadian public has exceeded the total national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after reaching 100.7%. This is significantly higher than in the United States, which has been declining since 2008. Household debt in the United States is now under 80% of GDP. Clearly, Canada’s private household debt is counter-trend.

german-household-debt

Germany’s household debt has been declining longer than in the United States, reflecting the problem the central bank has had in trying to compel people to borrow. If they do not TRUST the future, they will not take on debt at any price level.

A Dire Warning – ‘Someone Is Learning How to Take Down the Internet’


Good information as there are events unfolding world wide that indicates something big is coming; but I don’t think this is it this is just in addition to what might happen. The most likely even is a major banking crises in the EU.

Merkel Suffers Historical Defeat in Berlin – The Year from Political Hell is in Motion


Merkel Despair

The Stage is being set for the most dramatic political change in our lifetime; or for the young in age rather than just hart, post World War II. Angela Merkel’s party came in with absolutely historic losses in elections in Berlin. Some are claiming, such as the Mayor, this will return Nazis in Germany as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) comes to power. Of course, that is rather scare tactics. The AfD is anti-immigration, but have no desire to conquer Europe. Merkel has brought Europe into total and complete chaos with her refugee crisis. Her slogan “We Can Do This” has been used against her saying yes, “We can do this, take our country back.”

I have been warning that we are entering the period of political hell. This is a surge in nationalism/isolationism that is engulfing the world. Society has been drained of its lifeblood by the socialists and regulation to the point 5% economic growth is unheard of in the West. Wait til we see the results in France. This not going to be politics as usual.

The central banks have been selling US Treasury bonds at the request of the Fed to desperately try to keep the dollar from surging. China’s holdings have dropped to the lowest since 2013 as they try to help stem the dollar advance. Nonetheless, with all the manipulation trying to reverse the trend in the dollar, all we are getting is coiling. No matter what the central banks try to manipulate, the trend is unstoppable as this political year from hell unfolds.

European Leaders Discuss Plan for European Army


The creation of a EU military would be the last step in the conqyest of the separate EU states however it will not be an easy task as there are too many languages involved. A military can not have more than one language and which one will it be and who will deside?

A$ – Wheat & Wool – the Outlook


whcbt-y-9-16-2016

On the yearly level in Wheat CBT Futures, the last important low was established during 2010 at 4254, which was down 2 years from the high made back during 2008 at 13494. However, the highest closing was during 2007 at 8850. Right now, the market is trading below last year’s low of 4606. Overall, the market has been in a long-term bearish trend. At this time, the market is trading in a bearish position below our yearly momentum indicators warning resistance starts at 5990.

Honing in on the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2025. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 2017 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2020. This is a realistic potential since we have already penetrated last year’s low of 4606. The Yearly Bearish Reversal lies at 3110. Wheat has fallen to 3866 so far here in 2016. As long as 2016 holds 3110 for the year-end closing, then we should be looking a forming as early as 2017. We have already penetrated also the 2010 low of 4254.

Focusing an important timing model, the Directional Change Model target is 2017. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.

YEARLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
01/01/2016… 2198 4523 5450 8460
01/01/2017… 2219 4656 4445 8510
01/01/2018… 2240 4790 3439 8560
01/01/2019… 2261 4923 2434 8610
01/01/2020… 2282 5056 1428 8660
01/01/2021… 2303 5190 423 8710
01/01/2022… 2325 5323 8760

YEARLY ANALYSIS

In the event of new intraday lows developing beyond this year, then the final low could extend into 2017. Broadly speaking, a month-end closing BELOW 3070 is where the critical support lies. Only a monthly closing BELOW 3070 will confirm a long-term bear market is in motion. Otherwise, here lies important dynamic support within this market and holding this level is a clear line of demarcation in long-term trend. Make no mistake about this key level. If it is breached on a closing basis, then a continued decline is the most likely broader outcome. However, this appears to be a remote possibility. An annual closing back above 7997 will confirm a breakout to the upside is unfolding into the years ahead. Nevertheless, we have penetrated last year’s low of 4606. A year end closing below 4606 will warn of a further decline ahead ideally into 2017.

whcbt-y-a-9-16-2016

In A$, the key monthly closing to watch lies at 4190. This is actually equivalent to the US$ number 3070. In terms of A$, wheat has also made a new low so far in 2016 reaching 5111 during August. We need a monthly closing back above 5733 to signal wheat will rise in A$ terms. The only thing to unleash that result requires the dollar to rise sharply.

wool-2016

The Australian Wool market is poised to make new highs in nominal terms, but it is still nowhere near the 1951 high in real terms. The Australian wool industry peaked in 1950-51 when the average greasy wool price reached 144.2 pence per pound, (about $37 per kilogram). Today’s prices in the area of $3.20 per kilogram illustrate the stark difference. That major high in terms of wool was created by a two-prong influence. First, the British pound was devalued in 1949 from $4.86 to $2.80. The British demand for Australian wool had consumed about 50% of the annual production. The prices reached in 1950-1951 surged initially, as always, to reflect the devaluation of a currency. This was 9x the 1945-46 United Kingdom contract price, and almost 14x the average for the 10 seasons ending in 1938-39. Nonetheless, the rally in wool was also furthered by the short-lived surge in American demand created by the Korean War.

It is very clear that Australian Wool has been greatly influenced by the cycle in gold and thus mining. The low in wool coincided cyclically with gold in forming a 1999 low. The peak is also 2011 as was the case in gold. We are pushing against resistance at this point and we need to close above 1300 to maintain a bullish posture at year-end. However, unlike gold, the decline was confined to the two-year reaction phase. Therefore, wool is in a better position than gold. Breaking through the 2011 high should see the price test the high 1500s to 1600.

wool-in-us-dollars

When we look at Wool expressed in US dollars, we can see the significant difference this makes. Overall, we do see 2017 as a potential turning point also for the wool market. Take the lead from wheat in A$ terms for now.