Why is Keynesian Economics Collapsing?


Posted originally on Jun 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Keynes 5

John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 book, ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” argued aggregate demand was too volatile to be stable and would lead to inflation or recessions. His theory honed in on spending as a means of price control. Low aggregate demand, Keynes argues, would lead to high unemployment and stagflation. Government could intervene through fiscal policies to increase aggregate demand, as an example, increased government spending could tame inflation. Interest rates, according to Keynes, could also be modified to encourage spending and stimulate demand. So why are these theories failing miserably today?

To begin, the United States had a balanced budget when Keynes presented his theory. The government is now the biggest borrower, acting in its own self interest under Adam Smith’s theory of the invisible hand that Keynes spent his career attempting to deny. According to Keynes, “there is no self-correcting mechanism in a free market economy that automatically restores full employment.” He believed that the government could change the business cycle but arguably regretted this notion on his deathbed.

Keynesian economics gave the government the green light to manipulate the economy, or at least make numerous failed attempted to do so. There is that old joke about communism that you can vote your way in but must shoot your way out, seemingly fitting to the utter disaster governments have created in regards to our economic situation.

Keynes quote on Invisible Hand

The government is by far the biggest borrower. Raising interest rates can have no impact on demand, as the government will simply borrow more, and the central banks simply have no say. During the Great Depression, for example, Washington forced the Federal Reserve to implement QE policies to artificially lower rates to increase demand. Yet, when Washington ordered the Federal Reserve to do the same during the Korean War in 1951, the central bank first broke with Washinton and refused to comply as it knew it would hurt the economy as America’s budget was no longer balanced.

Quantitative Easing destroyed the Keynesian model, and there is now no other alternative for central banks to control the economy. If they raise rates, the budget explodes. The Keynesians advocate manipulating demand and advocate fiscal spending that the central bank cannot control. However, the other part of Keynesianism is the manipulation of taxes. Keynes argued that to stimulate demand, you lower taxes. He saw this correctly, but again, it does not fit with government agendas.

There is no limit to what the government will spend with “money” that simply does not exist. Governments continue to borrow perpetually with no real intention of paying back their debts. This is one piece of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that will implode like a nuclear bomb the likes of which we have never witnessed. The business cycle cannot be manipulated, and what’s more, the Keynesian model cannot account for declining confidence in both government and the economy.

European Elections Promise a Chaotic Summer


Posted originally on Jun 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, you were right again, or your computer was, that the June elections would be a major upset. The far right has gained in France, Germany, and the Netherlands. You said in London that Le Pen should win in the 30% range. It looks like she has 31.5%.

Well done!

HH

Le Pen Marine

REPLY: This should come as no surprise; I am more astonished that politicians are so ignorant of the trend that they appear once in power; they become drunk and assume they can do as they like, and their own people cheer. Turn the economy down as our ECM has done as of May 7th, 2024, and the politics will ALWAYS change. I do not even need Socrates to make that forecast. It is a simple historical fact. Even Herbert Hoover was elected at the top in 1928 and since the ECM peaked in 1929.75, they were naming shanty towns – Hooverville. Of course it was not his policies, but that does not matter. Turn the economy down, and you will ALWAYS get political change or civil unrest.

DAD40 W Array 6 9 24

Macron has called a Snap Election June 30th with the second round July 7th. Mcron was the peacemaker at first, but he has flipped and become the leader of the warmongers. I have warned that was likely because his popularity had crashed and as such they think that they can retain power by going to war for typically in war people do not change horses. However, when we look at the dates, we have a Directional Change for the week of June 3rd, and that has panned out as expected, with serious political gains for the far right. Now look at the target of July 8th, when the second round will take place. Note the sharp right in volatility leading into a Panic Cycle by the end of July.

France CAC40 M Array 4 24 24

Even when we look at the timing array from last April, May was the target, and then look at the trend from June into August with a Panic Cycle in September. So far, these European politicians have created inflation, attacked farmers without just cause, threatened war with Russia, and ignored citizens’ concerns, yielding to extreme movements such as the Climate Change nutjobs without ANY scientific evidence whatsoever. They have stood by silently while the American Neocons blew up Nord Stream, singing fuel prices higher and undermining the German economy. But, hey – we have to get Putin! Is it any wonder why the LEFT has lost? Even the Greens in Germany lost big time. Philippe Lamberts of Germany’s Greens/EFA had to admit that the exit poll was “not a victory” for their movement.

After initial projections, the far-right in France with the National Rally (RN) party of Le Pen came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Macron’s Renaissance Party, which barely made it to second place with 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.

In Portugal, it was their center-left Socialist Party (PS) that appeared to be heading for a marginal victory as they positioned less than 1% ahead of the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), according to an exit poll from the European Parliament.

Manfred Weber, the chair of the European People’s Party (EPP), one of the war-mongering establishments, said he would try to shut far-right parties out of any governing coalition. This is how arrogance prevails over democracy. He effectively declared business as usual. He was turning more to the left, urging them to be more mainstream and join the EPP’s “pro-European, pro-democratic alliance.”

IBEUUS W Array 6 9 24

Even when we turned to the Euro, this coming week was a Directional Change once again confirmed a political upset on the June 9th elections.

USA Watchdog Interview 6-8-24


Posted originally on Jun 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2024_06_09_11_28_01_It_s_Trump_vs_WWIII_Martin_Armstrong_Greg_Hunter_s_USAWatchdog

Sacre’ Bleu! – The French Peasants Have Revolted as Macron Dissolves Parliament and Calls for Immediate Snap Election


Posted originally on the CTH on June 9, 2024 | Sundance 

French President Emmanuel Macron was pulverized in the national election today.  According to exit polling, Marine LePen’s National Rally party will win around 32% of the vote, while Macron’s Renaissance party will win around 15%.

A massive rebuke of the leftist government in France.

PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a fresh election on Sunday, following his party’s crushing defeat at the hands of far-right candidates in the European Union election.

The first round of the French Parliamentary election will take place on June 30. The second will be on July 7.

“France needs a clear majority in serenity and harmony. To be French, at heart, is about choosing to write history, not being driven by it,” Macron said.

The far-right National Rally is projected to win the European election in France with 31.5 percent of the vote — more than twice the 15.2 percent Macron’s liberal Renaissance party is projected to win.

The National Rally’s share of the vote eclipsed the total for the second and third largest parties combined — with the center-left social democrats earning around 14 percent, according to early exit polls.

The decision to dissolve the National Assembly was met with disbelief by Macron’s supporters, with several people screaming “Oh no” as he spoke to a crowd in a televised address from his party headquarters in Paris. (read more)

Overall, in the EU elections this weekend the populist movement expanded seats and the leftist/green party’s lost seats.

(MSM) – […] Populist, far-right parties won record support in this year’s European Parliament elections, early exit polls and estimates indicated on Sunday.

The far-right Identity and Democracy group made major gains, while the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists saw a slight uptick in votes, according to the first official projection released by the EU at 8:30 p.m. local time.

The center-right European People’s Party is once again projected to win the most parliamentary seats, with a marginally bigger lead than before. If it’s able to repeat alliances with other centrist groups then it would retain a majority in the Parliament despite a surge from the far right.

The liberal Renew Europe and the Greens/European Free Alliance, meanwhile, are both seen losing a significant number of seats.

Here is the early 2024 vote breakdown versus 2019:

European People’s Party (EPP) — 181 seats, up from 176
Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats (S&D) — 135 seats, down from 139
Renew Europe (RE) — 82 seats, down from 102
European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) — 71 seats, up from 69
Identity and Democracy (ID) — 62 seats, up from 49
Greens/European Free Alliance — 53 seats, down from 71
The Left — 34 seats, down from 37
Non-attached members (NI) — 51 seats, down from 61

LINK

The last time there was a populist revolt in the EU system, the summer of BREXIT, it preceded the successful election of President Donald Trump.

Farage on Britain’s Future


Posted originally on Jun 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Build-to-Rent Communities Grow in Popularity


Posted Jun 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

BuildtoRentHomeStarts2022

You will own nothing. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) have grown in popularity in recent years. America has recently imported a concept stemming from across the pond in the UK to pacify housing fears. Build-to-rent (BTR) communities are becoming a common development as the majority of Americans struggle to either afford or find housing.

Around 23% of Americans own property. YouGov conducted a poll that found that 60% of Americans believe the old model whereby 30% of one’s income would equate to affordable housing. That is simply not possible for over a quarter of Americans who spend far more than 30% on their mortgages. Almost half (49%) of renters spend 30% or more on shelter, while 19% spend over half of their take-home pay to the landlord. According to the survey, 46% of homeowners are worried about making their monthly mortgage payments, compared to 69% of renters.

Build-to-rent communities usually mimic a typical suburbia rather than an apartment complex. Amenities and property management is often included, which is why this concept was once reserved for retirees and the aging population. This is a deal for investors who may purchase homes within the development communities. They are usually priced higher than typical rentals as the home is within a more desirable community with stable tenants and a lower turnover. As for the tenants, they are not gaining any equity and are forgoing a valuable asset.

Fixr reported that build-to-rent communities are set to grow within the next two years based on data from the NAHB but will remain somewhat stagnant in 2023 due to massive growth in recent years. Over 119,000 homes using this model were built in 2022, marking a 50% increase from 2018. In the last five years, Charlotte, NC, experienced a 621% uptick in built-to-rent communities, followed by Jacksonville, Florida (353%), Greenville, South Carolina (265%), while Phoenix, Arizona, experienced a 280% uptick.

The younger generation, who want to begin expanding their families but cannot afford to own them, is primarily attracted to these growing complexes that provide the feel of homeownership without the asset. Everyone needs a place to live. Families, especially with young children, do not tend to move around as often with school zoning and other aspects. Homeownership and the traditional American dream of the house with the white picket fence have been transformed.

Tucker Carlson Interviews El Salvador President Nayib Bukele – “Western Civilization is Failing”….


Posted originally on the CTH on June 6, 2024 | Sundance

Tucker Carlson traveled to El Salvador to interview President Nayib Bukele about his ongoing efforts to eliminate corruption, crime, criminal gang activity and get rid of MS-13 gangs.

President Bukele initially used nationalized military to target criminal gangs and remove them from the streets. The social change, the outcome within the country, was stunning and fast. What was once the most violent crime ridden country, literally the murder capital of the world, changed in a few months and peace returned. President Bukele easily won reelection and Tucker Carlson traveled to hear his story. WATCH:

Chapters of Video:
0:00:00 Intro
0:04:47 Bukele’s Formula to Save El Salvador
0:09:50 The Satanic Side of MS-13
0:16:28 Bukele’s 3-Point Economic Plan
0:28:41 Is Western Civilization Dying?
0:50:10 Will Donald Trump Get Elected?
0:56:09 Bukele’s Advice to Trump
1:00:03 Americans Moving to El Salvador

Fed President Says Americans Would Prefer a Recession to Inflation


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Fed Ship in STorm

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.

“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.

3 faces of Inflation Dragon

Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.

“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.

CPI Formula

Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.

Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.

The Economic Decline of Europe With Rising Interest Rates?


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Via Veneto

I have returned from a two-week tour of Europe covering the UK, Germany, and Italy. Europe is in dire straights. I have stayed on the Via Veneto since my parents took me back in 1964/65. It was the 5th Avenues of Rome. The street was lined with sidewalk cafes. Out of probably 30, only three remained. There was once a restaurant that overlooked Trajan’s Forum that I ate with my parents back then. Ever since then, I have eaten dinner there for over 40 years. This time, it too was gone.

The damage that COVID unleashed by stupid politicians listening to people like Fauci and self-anointed experts at various universities in London, has undermined the European economy dramatically. Then throw in the nonsense of NET ZERO climate change and comingle that with the insanity of the American Neocons who blew up Nord Stream, imposed sanctions on Russia that have backfired on Europe. It is understandable why European political leaders are beating the war drums for they desperately need a distraction. War has historically been the best distraction from domestic civil unrest.  Otherwise, the people will storm their palaces and drag them out to the streets in old fashion revolutions for their sheer stupidity, belligerence, and incompetence.

Assassination

All governments become arrogant and die by their own hand from domestic strife. Like Rome, the barbarians could only successfully invade when the politicians had weakened Rome’s economy. History repeats because humanity never learns. We see the West already deeply divided. This unprecedented attack on Donald Trump began from the very day that he announced he would run for President. They do not like outsiders. Politicians have been schooled in how to send people to war to die and never think twice about the children growing up without a parent. You must be dehumanized to be a head of state, no different from the head of a Pharmaceutical company that can sleep at night knowing some people will always die from a vaccine. Still, they focus on the majority – never the collateral damage.

Haraguchi Kazuhiro

Kazuhiro Haraguchi, the former Japanese Minister for Internal Affairs, has become the first major politician to apologize to the unvaccinated for the tsunami of deaths occurring among the vaccinated population. There has been a major protest, with serious numbers of Japanese citizens taking to the streets demanding action against the crimes against humanity perpetrated by globalist organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Economic Forum (WEF) during the pandemic. There is NO data available as to the long-term effects of MNRA vaccines.

Since people like Bill Gates proclaim that MNRA will bring the cost of vaccines down to $2 to maximize profits, they have successfully destroyed all the benefits of vaccines created over the past 200 years. This is playing into our computer projection for the population decline. Maderna is bragging how they have blended COVID-19 with the Flu Shot. This is just an instance, and governments are up for sale to the highest bidder.

China Holdings of US Debt

Usually, when you enter a recession, interest rates decline because people stop investing and begin to save for a future that is uncertain. However, our brilliant Neocons have been trying to create World War III and they have yet to win a single war they have launched since World War II. Threatening China over Taiwan may sound noble in the headlines and on CNN, but China has been the largest holder of US debt. It is now declining in CRASH MODE, and rightly so. You do not lend money to your enemy who wants to kill you.

China sold $53 billion during the first quarter of 2024, and it continues to be a net seller. With Biden spending like a drunken sailor, governments default when they are involved in these Ponzi schemes and are unable to sell new debt to pay off the old. China is in a 14-year decline, and rightly so. This means that the US Treasury will need to find other buyers for its debt, and in the process, rates will rise more than keep beating the war drums.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

The recession began in the USA and will be hardest felt in Europe. Today, Buden was forced to close the border. He was getting plummeted by fellow Democrats ahead of the election. The Sanction of Russia and Biden’s recent decree to cut off all energy from Russia will fulfill what our computer has forecasted: that we are looking at STAGFLATION, meaning economic growth declines. Still, inflation continues to rise due to shortages and the most brain-dead people in the White House, probably in US history.

Here are the timing arrays for the UK and the core of the European economy – Germany. We are in a declining mode into 2026, and waging war to retain power may look good on paper, but they will not be able to blame Putin for everything. It is down and dirty from here on out.

Germany GDP Y 6 4 24
Britain UK GDP Y 6 4 24

Land of the Free Home of the Brave – Void when Neocons Prohibit It


Posted Jun 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: Marty, please post this on the public blog and not the private. Everyone would know that all the major intelligence agencies read you because they all know Socrates has been incredible in its geopolitical forecasting that is unmatched anywhere. After you returned home across the pond, I believe the chatter is that some are now questioning Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s position. You are far more of a champion than even you think. There are those listening to Socrates’s statement that the West will lose. They know Socrates forecasted the fall of communism in 1989, the USSR in 1991, and the Russian bond collapse in 1998. Nobody can do that from personal opinion.

Please, please, post this on the public blog. People have to support you to at least make it to 2032.

Anonymous

T Shirt Land of Free

REPLY: I hope you are right. When I returned, as soon as the Customs Agent looked at the screen on me, she said come with me and took me off to a private room to be searched. They detained me for only about 30 minutes, and I was released. I was not allowed to call anyone or use my phone. That has never happened before. So, I guess I have the Neocons to thank for that delay.

Everyone would be writing to their Congressman and Senator to demand an investigation into HOW directed the “appointed” government of Ukraine to start this civil war. I believe it was Victoria Nuland et al. She was the one on the ground, and it was her husband who started the claims that Trump would be a dictator because his wife has been in every administration EXCEPT that of Trump. It is time for the truth to be revealed for the world to see.


Many have asked if they can buy this shirt we handed out at our WEC a few years back. We do not have any. Given the unfolding events, we will look into the possibility of making up a batch.