Snow in the Sahara Desert – 3rd Time in 37 years


Last year, the snow appeared in Spain wiping out the crops and causing rationing of vegetables. This year the snow went down even further and crossed into Algeria covering the desert. So while the Global Warming people are desperate to explain weather as caused by humans, we are ignoring the cycle of the sun which has caused ice ages and warming periods long before 1850. As the Dail Mail has reported, that up to 16 inches of snow has fallen on the Sahara desert. This is the third time in 37 years (8.6 x 4.3) that Algeria has even seen snow cover the desert. This is perfectly aligned with the 8.6-year cycle for the region.

It appears to be right on schedule since Socrates is pointing to a rise in food prices by the time we move into the peak of the next Economic Confidence Model 8.6-year wave – 2024.35. The satellite images from NASA show what took place. This is not just a small storm. Europe has been hit with the cold stretching down to the extremes where they have relied upon food during the winter season.

As we move into these last two wave formations, we will also have climate change on top of sovereign debt and pension crisis. It is reaching the point that whatever can go wrong, seems to be lining up.

Extreme Volatility in Weather – Part of Climate Change?


QUESTION: It is crazy hot here in Sydney the exact opposite of the extreme cold in the north. Is there an explanation at all for this?

ANSWER:  Most people do not realize that the climate is actually “polar opposites.” Both the Arctic (North Pole) and the Antarctic (South Pole) are cold because they don’t get any direct sunlight.  However, though the North Pole and the South Pole are “polar opposites,” they both get the same amount of sunlight but there is a major difference. The South Pole is a much colder than the North Pole and this also contributes to the difference in climate experience around the globe.

The Arctic is ocean surrounded by land whereas the Antarctic in the South is in fact land surrounded by ocean. Consequently, the ocean under the Arctic ice is cold, yet the water is still warmer than the ice! So the ocean warms the air which it cannot do in the South. Antarctica is dry despite the ice. Under the ice and snow, you find land with mountain ranges, not ocean. As with any mountain range, the higher you go, the colder it gets. The actual average elevation of Antarctica is about 7,500 feet (2.3 km).

The extreme heat in Australian, reached 47c (116f), is more akin to the Middle East in summer. I went trekking through the valley of the Kings in Egypt when it was 50c (122f) and I was the only one out and about while everyone stayed in the hotel. As the energy output of the sun collapses, we will witness growing extremes in different regions. The last time it was this hot in Sydney goes back to the 1930s during the Dust Bowl people in the USA. The cycle in extremes appears to be 86 years so this is on target. Australia is dry and ripe for wildfires the same as we see in California. This will contribute to the decline in food supply globally.

World Debt Burden has Exceeded $230 Trillion


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it interesting how you have pointed out that when it comes to public debt, the USA is actually far better than Europe or many in Asia. You also forecast that debt would begin to rise sharply from mid-2017 going into 2021. Do you have any figures to support that forecast?

NW

ANSWER: Yes of course!. The volume of global debt is rising significantly. According to the Institute of International Finance, total liabilities in the third quarter of 2017 surpassed $230 trillion. This is an increase of 16 trillion compared to the end of 2016. As the interest rates continue to rise, the debt servicing costs are simply going to explode. As a whole, Europe is over 100% of debt to GDP on average compared to the USA at about 73%. Government debt has exceeded $60 trillion.

This entire system is coming undone. The debt servicing is exploding as rates begin to rise. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is very much alive and wel

Climate Change – As if it was Supposed to Change


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your computer has proven it can forecast markets, economies, the rise and fall of governments, war, and now even weather well in advance of anyone else. Is this bitter cold just a taste of what is to come? If so, I definitely think it is time to follow you south before you can’t sell a house up here when interest rates also start to rise. Working in a bank, I know all too well as soon as there is any trouble, the lending stops. I suppose that is what you are warning about with your real estate forecasts as well.

FH

ANSWER: Unfortunately, this is the beginning of the decline. It will get worse. We are looking at a progressive period of colder weather for the first 13 years following 2015. There should be some oscillation and if there are any warm winters compared to this one, this will be an extension of the decline at least into 2032 with the more likely target off into 2045-2047. By the time this is finished, you will be willing to taxes to get global warming. The sad part of this whole mess is that the Global Warming crowd, while they are rolling around in their bed of cash rejoicing how much they made on this scam, they have led many people to their death by distracting people from the real fury of nature.

Extreme cold has reached from New England to the Midwest and down to the Carolinas, with temperatures dropping below zero. It has been in the 40s here at night in the Tampa region and it snowed a little in Tallahassee. The fatalities associated with the harsh conditions will continue to rise from drivers sliding off an icy road to the rise in disease. This will be a very dangerous rise in economic declines as well as temperature plummet during the winters ahead. It is so cold, any kind of exposed skin can freeze in a couple of minutes.” It was so cold, the attendance for New York City’s Times Square on New Year’s Eve was sharply lower.

I have written about this in the Mayan Report which I have called the clash between catastrophe and uniformity. There are simply people who want to believe that everything is uniform and tomorrow will be the same as today. Then there is the group of scientists who believe in cycles and understand that there is a natural rhythm to everything. In 1832, Professor Albrecht Reinhard Bernhardi (1797–1849) argued that the North Polar ice cap had extended into the plains of Germany. To support this theory, he pointed to the existence of huge boulders that have become known as “erratics” he suggested were pushed by the advancing ice. This was a shocking theory for it was certainly a nonlinear view of natural history. Bernhardi was thinking out of the box. The theory of climate change began to take shape. It had all began with the discovery of in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen woolly rhinoceros followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries of frozen animals with grass still in their stomach, set in motion these two schools of thought of catastrophe and uniformity since the evidence implied you could be eating lunch and suddenly find yourself frozen to be discovered by posterity. It was this discovery that sparked the investigation into cycles which led to Haley’s Comet, the realization it was the same comet on a cycle, to Charles Darwin’s (1809-1882) Theory of Evolution, which was also inspired by climate change that led to the survival of the fittest proposition. (see Mayan Report).

 

The Municipal Debt Crisis Begins


I have previously reported that about 50% of German municipalities are insolvent. This is a global trend and we are witnessing it in the United States as well. The North Rhine-Westphalian Association of Cities has called for help from the future German federal government as the building crisis among financially weak municipalities continue to escalate. This includes the fourth largest by area in Germany with the capital situated in Düsseldorf. The main cities include Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund, and Essen. They are pleading for a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD to save the municipal governments. With the end of the historic low-interest phase, interest rates are poised to rise dramatically in Europe and they begin to see that the appetite for new debt from the government is sharply declining.

Politicians have been hiding this municipal crisis in Germany until after the elections when it was assumed Merkel would win as always. Now the cat is coming out of the bag and we will begin to see the real impact of nearly 10-years of subsidizing governments by the ECB rather than actually stimulating the economy that never bounced. This is a fundamental background issue behind the rise in interest rates between 2018 and 2021.

US Taxes Can Expose Wealth of Royal FAMILY in UK


The marriage of Prince Harry with Meghan Markle, an American, presents a real nightmare for the Royal Family. Meghan is required by law to not merely pay taxes on worldwide income, but if she receives money from her husband or his family, that will be income of gifts both of which will be taxable in the USA even if she never returns to the United States – EVER!

Worse still, Meghan will have to file Form 8938 if she has more than $300,000 worth of assets in any given tax year. She is already a millionaire for her acting career so filing Form 8938 means she will have to reveal in great detail all assets she owns. This may now include foreign trusts and details of the royal family’s estate that was previously undisclosed. One the USA and Japan tax worldwide income. Everyone else is far more civilized. You do not pay taxes if you live overseas. The theory is rather simple. You pay tax because you are using the services. Under USA law, you are owned by the government and are thus the property of the state and whatever you make even living outside the USA, taxes art due.

The tax code is proving a difficult obstacle for the Royal Family.

Cross the Line & They Go Nuts


COMMENT: They use to call you Mr. Yen. They also called you the manipulator of the world. Then it was the legend. Now they will call you Mr. Dow.

All the best

SJ

REPLY: Well, they always have to find someone to blame. Cross the line and try to explore new methodologies and they just go nuts. I can understand Mr. Yen, and I get the crazy allegation by the government that I manipulate the world economy, but the “legend” I really remain clueless as to what that one is about. As to Mr. Dow – well I suppose that’s next in the queue.

They prefer to always claim I have too much influence rather than look at what I am saying and the methodology. It is just human nature to desperately try to keep everything unchanged. Labelling someone is a form of downgrading them.

BitCoin Reality Check?


At What Point do we reach Euphoria in the Equity Markets?


QUESTION:

Marty,

John Templeton has said “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

My question is…….. at what point do we reach euphoria in the equity markets?

ANSWER: Our Energy Models are designed to ascertain that dimension of a market. Naturally, everyone responds to whatever the last event is in recent memory. Therefore, the 2007-2009 Crash lives on in their experience so that means they will be skeptical of new highs. We have witnessed that with analysts constantly calling for every new high would be the last. They keep trying to forecast the last event because they missed that one as well.

The only way to approach this is from a quantitative viewpoint. Human opinion will inevitably be wrong no matter who it is. How the market responds to our Energy Models is critical for long-term forecasting. Look at the chart for 1929. Here you see that there is a huge spike in energy which peaked in February 1929. The market rallied to new highs but note that the Energy Models we not making new highs. This peak BEFORE the major high confirmed a very serious undermining of the market structure warning that this type of high was a Bubble and therefore would not be exceeded for decades.

Now compare this to the Energy Models for the 2007 high. We do not have aBUBBLE formation at all and the high came on the reaction high following the major high for the move. This confirmed this was by no means a BUBBLE and in fact new record highs would be make once again.

Let’s turn to the DOT.COM BUBBLE. The first thing you will notice is that the Energy was clearly in a BUBBLE formation. The slight difference here is that the Energy Model peaked the week after the high rather than before. This confirmed that it was not going to be a 1929 type event and the new record highs would be made which indeed unfolded in April 2015 which was 61 quarters intraday and 66 quarters to close above the 2000 high on a quarterly basis.

Here is gold for the 1980 BUBBLE. Once again you see the extreme BUBBLE formation and here the peak took place with the peak in gold. So while we are not looking at the same type of formation with the peak unfolding in advance of the high as in 1929, this reflected that gold would eventually make new record highs within a mid-term perspective. Unquestionable, it took 19 years for gold to decline before the major low was established. Gold finally exceeded the 1980 high during the crisis of 2008.
Now, let us look at the current situation. Again we do not have a major BUBBLE formation. What we do have is a market that is still expanding and in fact, the high on our Energy Models on the weekly level took place last week. This implies we would still press higher into January and that has been out target once you exceeded the November high.
We are by no means in a 1929 BUBBLE type of formation. Here is the view of the 1987 Crash. Like Gold, the peak came 1 week following the high. Yet we see escalating advances in Energy leading into the 1987 high. So far, we lack that type of pattern warning that the real advance in our Energy Models is yet to come.
Therefore, the answer to your question is rather simple. It is always a matter of TIME rather than price. As markets rally, human interpretation of price will always be wrong. NOBODY is going to call this final high from a human perspective and anyone who claims that will be a fraud. It is not a matter of opinion for we can personally only forecast what we think is possible, to begin with.

Climate Change – Is the an OMG Event?


1709 Deep Freeze

 

QUESTION: Is it in your view a minor cold blip or “OMG we’re all going to freeze to death and run out of food ?”

BR

ANSWER: We are looking at an unbelievable decline in the energy output of the sun which appears to be the most rapid decline in nearly 10,000 years. The Global Warming crowd may be setting society up for mass famine and death because they are deliberately point everyone in the opposite direction to get their portion of the $1 billion grants. Natural disasters are the most disastrous when the energy output of the sun declines. There has been a fatal interaction of ecological, agricultural, economic, and political factors that seem to be setting the stage for at least a repeat of what is known as the Great Famine of 1315-1317. The Great Famine started with bad weather in spring 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer harvest in 1317, and Europe did not fully recover until 1322. The period was marked by extreme levels of crime, disease, mass death and even cannibalism and infanticide. The crisis set in motion the great economic collapse that began during the fourteenth century. In our arrogance, we seem to believe we have conquered every aspect of the planet and many argue we can even alter the climate of the planet.

The collapse from the Medieval Warm period was rapid, but also deadly. When the climate turned down, what followed was suddenly bitter cold winters and drenching rains which then froze. Europe had expanded as society always does in warm periods. Study have shown that desert rodent populations of many species tend to “fluctuate synchronously owing to pulses of primary production and seed availability during rainy years, and reduced seed production during droughts” (PLOS 2013).

BlackDeath-10

I have reported that plagues correlate to the decline in temperature. During the 14th century, there were warnings in the form of rumors that told of a great plague in China and India that killed most of the populations there. The plague made its way to Europe when the Kipchak forces were besieging the Genoese trading post in the Crimea (Ukraine). The Kipchaks began to catapult plague-infested corpses over the walls and into the trading post. The disease spread quickly and the Genoese abandoned the outpost. They sailed back to Europe stopping in Sicily in 1347 taking the Black Death with them.

Four centuries of global warming left Europe with mild temperatures, which were the highest in 8,000 years. This led to the great economic expansion and the rebirth of trade and the economy. In fact, gold began to reappear in the coinage after about 600 years. This was the Great Medieval Warming period that marked the rebirth of civilization following the fall of the Roman Empire. The European continent’s farmers expanded agriculture and planted crops on vast quantities of land previously unsuitable for agriculture. This led to the increased food supply which, like desert rodents, fueled a population explosion that tripled the number of people in medieval Europe.

First we have the sharp decline in weather. This resulted in those marginal lands that had been cultivated ceasing to produce crops as frosts and floods dominated the climate. Millions of extra mouths had to be fed and many died from the famine. Rebellions and civil wars emerged and this in turn exacerbated the  crisis. Then the terrible weather turned deadly and the first disease began to appear int the livestock. Two consecutive harvest failures in 1314 and 1315 launched seven years of famine, resulting in the deaths of between 5% and 12% of the population of northern Europe.

Yes, there have been famines caused by mankind. The worst in history remains that which occurred during the 20th century. This was the Russian famine created by Communism. Stalin’s forced collectivization program starved to death some 5 million Russians. Stalin took the food from Ukraine for Russia resulting in another 8 million Ukrainian deaths. Some 25 million Chinese died of hunger as a consequence of Mao’s Great Leap Forward, which also completely failed when bureaucrats try to run things from a central government perspective. Both of these modern famines were the result of Socialism/Communism taking the control away from the individual and handing it to bureaucrats in the central office.

My concern here is the correlations of pandemics to the decline in the energy output of the sun. That decline from the Medieval Warming Period set in motion what many call the Little Ice Age. Even after the extreme low, Europe is rapidly turning colder much faster than expected in what we would call technically a retest of the lows. That sharp decline was a real global cooling period for Europe known as the Deep Freeze of 1709. In the first few months of 1709 remained in a deep freeze that again wiped out food supplies. People were ice-skating on the canals of Venice, which against was highly unusual to see such cold that far south on the water. People could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback because it was completely frozen! You could not ring a church bell because it would shatter it was that cold.

Therefore, to answer the question do we face an OMG event with famine? The answer is yes! The worst of this may come during the 2020-2024 period. I have reported that it appears the next 8.6-year wave on the ECM appears to be setting up for a rally in commodities. That will include food.