Tag Archives: Economic Collapse

Feb 20 2023

The Bitcoin Delusion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Now with Switzerland outlawing a cashless society, I understand your point that cryptocurrency is really a dead end. Without power, it cannot exist and as you said in times of war, you take down the power grid and they can do that with an EPM pulse. These Bitcoin zealots are clueless about history and humanity. It’s just another way to separate a fool from his money.

Thank you for the education

BH

REPLY: The whole blockchain was the perfect creation of a totalitarian state. They can trace everything. How would you bribe politicians? It would all have to revert to barter. Do this and I will give you that – off the grid. This is why people are still buying real estate, precious metals, ancient coins, art, collectibles, and various things that are tangible and are thus off the grid.

Having funds in any cryptocurrency is still on the grid. When I was one of the three top market-makers in gold back in the ’70s, the IRS walked in and said they declared me to be a bank. Thus, I was supposed to report every transaction of $10,000 or more. They acknowledged I did not realize I was a bank, so they waived the fines. They seized all my records and went off to audit over 3,000 clients. They claimed that gold was not DEMONETIZED as money, just suspended for a while. I retired because I was supposed to report customers but not everyone else in the field. My lawyers said I could fight it. It would take years. My model warned that gold would decline for 19 years anyway so I choose to retire. The clients still wanted the research and thus Princeton Economics was spun off separately.

They can declare every person running an exchange in crypto is now a bank and must report every transaction. They can be put them out of business in the blink of an eye. These people have no idea who they are messing with. You will not win. All this is because of their twisted view of fiat money. They no more understand money and assets any more than Karl Marx.

During inflation, assets rise in value, and money declines. That took place during the 19th century when a gold coin was money. MONEY has NEVER been of a constant value – NEVER! These people yelling fiat simply do not comprehend that for thousands of years, there has always been a business cycle and that means money rises and calls in purchasing power REGARDLESS of whatever it has been. The fiscal irresponsibility of governments is well documented throughout history long before paper money.

Even under a gold standard, there were periods of inflation and deflation. Read the history of the California Gold Rush. During the 1849 Gold Rush in California, the journalist for the New York Tribune, Bayard Taylor (1825-1878), arrived in San Francisco by ship during the summer of 1849. He was shocked at what he encountered and did not think that anyone would even believe what he was going to write. His dispatches about the gold rush economy in California stunned many and helped to create the 1849 Gold Rush.

The average wage for a laborer in New York was about one or two dollars a day. In California, individual hotel rooms were rented to professional gamblers for upwards of $10,000 a month, which is the equivalent of about $300,000 today. The degree of inflation in terms of gold was astounding and lacks comparison in modern times. There was so much gold, that the value of goods rose even though they did not in New York. The inflation phenomenon was local.

Gold became so common; they were even striking $50 gold coins in California when $20 was the highest denomination elsewhere and $1-dollar coins down to 25 cents all in gold. Eventually, there were $1 gold coins minted in the United States for general circulation throughout the USA. Indeed, Taylor wrote:

“[One] citizen of San Francisco died insolvent to the amount of forty-one thousand dollars the previous autumn. His administrators were delayed in settling his affairs and his real estate advanced so rapidly in value meantime that after his debts were paid, his heirs had a yearly income of $40,000 [$1.2 million today].

“These facts were indubitably attested; everyone believed them, yet hearing them talked of daily, as matters of course, one at first could not help feeling as if he had been eating ‘of the insane root.’”

It does NOT matter what is money. It will always rise and fall as measured against tangible assets as it has done since Babylonian times. In fact, the very first attempt to control inflation, as the central banks are doing right now, were the wage and price controls put in place by the legal codes of the Assyrians and Babylonians.

So – stop the BS. Understand that there are times when CASH will be king regardless of what money is at that moment in time, and then it will fall in value when everyone wants tangible assets. There is a business cycle – learn to live with it and we will be better off. The hard-nosed cryptocurrency zealots will never admit they are wrong. They are like politicians and will cling to their theories no matter what evidence you show them.

I asked one once, to name a single period in history where money was constant and never declined in value. He could not!

Bitcoin is an instrument for trading. This very chart CONFIRMS it is by no means a store of wealth. It rises and falls like ant commodity of stock. It is still influenced as part of the business cycle. Sorry – there is NOTHING that is a perfect store of wealth. Everything fluctuates. Trade Bitcoin, that is fine. But do not make a religion out of it for you will lose not just your shirt, but your pants as well.

Feb 20 2023

War & Justice Preview


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Feb 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The ICC can ONLY prosecute member states. The United States refused to join the ICC so no American can ever be tried for a war crime. The same applies to Russia, yet the ICC is trying to politically indict Putin to create World War III

Feb 20 2023

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Admits Goal is to Shrink Economy to Meet Decreased Energy Supplies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

Prior to this interview, the Fed was being too-cute-by-half as they talked about targeting the ‘demand side’ through increased rates.  The demand they were targeting is the energy demand, but people (mostly in the financial and business world) were not willing to accept that Federal Reserve monetary policy would intentionally try to shrink the economy.

When overall energy price increases are driving upward of 60%, it is going to take a major amount of economic contraction to drop energy demand to meet the diminished energy supply.  CTH has been warning about this ultimate objective for over two years.  It’s a simple economic situation.

+60% price on the supply side, with a goal of +2% on the downstream demand side, equals a major amount of activity needing to be removed. Essentially energy use needs to drop by half.

You can put everyone in an electric car and still not even come close to dropping energy demand 50%.  You cannot “energy efficient” your way to a 50% drop in demand; there just isn’t enough waste in the system, especially when people are already paying close attention to energy use because it costs so much.

This “transition to the new green economy” is a whole of society shift.

This “transition to the new green economy”, is a multi-generational shift.

The transition includes putting people in smaller houses, stopping their travel, stopping their purchasing of new goods, taking down entire industries and limiting human activity on a massive scale.

Something akin to the COVID-19 lockdown period would be needed, only this level of diminished economic activity would be permanent.

It makes you wonder if the COVID-19 lockdown was the test to see how much energy use would drop if everyone was stopped in place.  And yes, during the COVID lockdowns, human activity did stop, economic activity did stop, and energy use did drop by the nearly amount we are talking about.

When you accept what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is openly admitting in that interview segment, particularly as he is asked about the massive supply side costs and how that overlays, then you realize how prescient the image is below.

This image is the exact future you see flowing from the “radical transformation,” or what is also called “managing the transition“…

At the end of the transition, you have two social societies.   One social system is a massive assembly of human activity all in close proximity. The alternative social system consists of those who do not wish to be jammed into Build Back Better cities yet forced to sustain themselves because the energy production and delivery resources in the larger geography have been stopped.

Now you know why I asked the question, “where would you live” over a decade ago.

Feb 20 2023

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Takes His “Not Campaigning, Campaigning Tour” to New York, Illinois and Beyond to Promote Law Enforcement


Posted originally on the CTH on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

Keeping up the coy and deliberately managed strategy of not running for 2024 while running for 2024, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will embark on a multi-state promotional effort to showcase his pro law enforcement outlook.

DeSantis starts Monday in Staten Island, New York, and the managers are counting on being able to do the ’24 run for office without angering the base Republican voters who see duplicity and deception in the construct.

As George Soros said of DeSantis personality, he’s “shrewd, ruthless, and ambitious,” the perfect blend of characteristics to operate as a pliable vessel operating on behalf of his Machiavellian management team.

NEW YORK – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will visit New York City Monday for a pro-law enforcement rally at a catering hall in Staten Island – a holiday incursion into one of former President Trump’s most loyal strongholds.

The 7:30 a.m. President’s Day speech at Privé will be the governor’s first stop on a multi-city tour to showcase his pro-cop bona fides as he gears up for an expected 2024 White House campaign, insiders said.

 “On Staten Island, we are proud to support our law enforcement,” said Assemblyman Mike Tannousis, the Staten Island GOP chairman. “I’m happy that our law enforcement community will get some recognition and support.”

The city’s reddest borough is packed with Trump backers, who gave him 57% of the island’s vote in 2020 – making Monday’s foray a crucial test of DeSantis’s chances among the former president’s remaining devotees. (read more)

Feb 20 2023

Sunday Talks, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Moraweicki Discusses State of NATO With Ukraine and Upcoming Biden Visit


Posted originally on the CTH on February 19, 2023 | Sundance 

With a visit by Joe Biden coming up next week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki discusses the status of the ongoing Ukraine conflict with Russia and the expectation of this being a long NATO supported fight.

Poland is in a weird place with their internal politics.  Domestically, their population is not in alignment with the leftist, globalist approach.  However, for the past two years -especially since the Russia/Ukraine conflict began – they appear to be walking a tightrope with U.S. policy, leaning favorably to the Biden administration.

It appears Poland is like many EU countries in the leadership disconnect from the mindset of the underlying population that grants them power, with NATO representing the corrupting influence in the disconnect.  Then again, the same could be said for almost the entire western system of government, including the United States.   Interesting dynamic to watch: 

(Transcript) – MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face The Nation. President Biden heads to Poland this week, his second visit since Russia began its war in Ukraine. For more we go now to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Good morning to you.

POLISH PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI: Good morning madam.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So President Biden will be visiting Warsaw, we know you’ve said President Zelenskyy will also be in Poland. What do you expect from these visits?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: Well, I expect that there will be very strong confirmation of our resilience and our joint efforts to defeat Russia in Ukraine, because instead of saying, some Western European politicians say that Russia cannot be- cannot win this war and Ukraine cannot be defeated. We have to change that paradigm and we have to say, Ukraine must win and Russia must be defeated. And I believe that the words of President Biden will reassure all Europe, that the United States is with us in this fight for freedom and peace.

MARGARET BRENNAN: It sounds like you’re referring to the French president’s recent comments. Does NATO actually want Ukraine to win this war and regain its lost territory?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: I believe so. I’m absolutely sure that this is the only way how we can restore peace and stability. I cannot imagine that Putin and the Kremlin winning this war, and then peace and stability is around us because the nature, the very nature of Russia is to conquer other countries. Russia has actually somewhat the worst of the 20th century, colonialism, imperialism, nationalism, and this is- this is the nature of “Russkiy mir” as they call, and this is why it’s such a critical moment in our history.

MARGARET BRENNAN: President Biden said he believes the war has to end in a negotiated settlement that’s favorable to Ukraine. You said last year, Poland doesn’t negotiate with criminals- criminals, “nobody negotiated with Hitler, would you negotiate with Hitler? With Stalin? With Pol Pot?” Are you saying peace is not possible if Putin stays in power?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: I just came to here- to this interview from Munich Conference. Munich Security Conference, very important platform to exchange opinions today, but in 1938, there was another Munich Conference, where all the leaders of the Western world succumbed to Hitler, and they believed they- they are they are bringing peace to their countries. And one year later, the Second World War broke out. We can, of course, negotiate, but it has to be under conditions and under the definition presented by Ukrainians themselves. It’s up to them to define what- what terms and conditions can be acceptable to negotiate with- with the Kremlin.

MARGARET BRENNAN: One of Ukraine’s neighbors, Moldova, has warned that there was a plot to overthrow their government and open a new front in the war. An ally of Putin recently said that Russia should ‘denazify and demilitarize Poland next.’ Do you see evidence that Russia is going to try to move into other countries including yours?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: Well, first of all, I can see more and more provocations around us. One of the missiles of Ukrainian defense system fell on Polish territory, killing people. And this was a direct consequence of a rocket- a rockets and missiles attack from Russia on Ukraine. A couple of weeks, a couple of days ago, another missile rocket went over the territory of Romania. It was sent over the territory of Romania and yes, I do see lots of fingerprints of Russian forces, Russian services in Moldova. This is a very weak, very weak country and we all need to help them. Poland is delivering some financial support for Moldova to survive this very- those very difficult times.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But in terms of Poland, you are in NATO, so the United States would have to come to your defense if you went to NATO and asked for it. There are 11,000 U.S. service members on rotation in Poland currently, I know your government’s asking for more. Do you have any indications from the Biden administration that they will send more troops or make them permanent on your soil?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: We are in the process of discussion with President Biden’s administration about making their presence more permanent and increasing them. But- but I’m very grateful also for sending new Patriot systems and other very modern weapons and munitions. Because this is also, to some extent, a proxy for- a proxy for- for presence of soldiers, but of course, the two go in tandem. I also recall the words of President Biden from last fall, from his last visit in Poland, when he said that every inch or square inch of NATO’s country’s territory, is- will be defended, and Russia is not going to put any inroads into- into those countries. And I do believe that NATO countries, we are all very much secure. But it’s not only about us. It’s also about creating stability around us,, in our direct neighborhood. And if we fall to integrate Ukraine in NATO and European Union, Ukraine will always be a zone- a buffer zone, which is- which is not right.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You’ve offered fighter jets to Ukraine, Soviet-era MiG jets, the U.S. has rejected that offer in the past. Any indication they’ll change their position now?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: Well, like as you probably recall, Madame, there were many things beyond our imagination at the beginning of the war, and then unimaginable became realizable. And so was with tanks, so was with the Patriot anti-aircraft, anti-missile- anti-rocket system. And I believe that also with fighter jets, eventually, there will be fighter jets from the West, delivered to Ukraine. Poland’s position is we can do this, but only in combination with other NATO allies, and in particular, under the leadership of the United States.

MARGARET BRENNAN: I have to let you go, but I want to quickly ask you, does the U.S. continue to raise concern to you about your own government’s crackdown on gay rights, curbing of the judicial system, and press freedom? Or have they moved those issues to the side because of the war?

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: We have no provenance of those issues whatsoever, madam. This is not the issue of war, which  actually put those questions aside. We- we’re introducing reforms to reform post-communist judiciary system, but this has nothing to do with war and other issues. We are in very frequent contact with President Biden administration. And by the way, we struck a deal. We made a compromise with Brussels, in the counter- in the format of new legislation, and I believe that those issues will- will be so on completely resolved.

MARGARET BRENNAN: All right, Mr. Prime Minister, we’ll be watching that visit. Thank you for your time.

PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI: Thank you. Thanks for having me.

[Transcript link]

Feb 19 2023

Gate’s Plan to End World Hunger


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Feb 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Feb 19 2023

The Tunnel – The Real Story of Berlin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socialist Re-Posted Feb 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Feb 19 2023

Strange Stuff – Two Weeks After East Palestine Toxic Chemical Spill, EPA Administrator Tells CNN Site Not Safe for EPA Workers


Posted originally on the CTH on February 18, 2023 | Sundance

I missed this a few days ago; however, given the “official” narrative that East Palestine, Ohio, water and air are safe it seems rather contradictory for EPA Administrator Michael Regan to tell CNN’s Erica Hill two weeks later that things might not be safe for EPA officials.

I mean seriously, what the heck is the message here?  And the state and federal officials wonder why the residents of the area would have concerns about being told everything is safe.  In this soundbite (prompted to the question at 07:39) CNN’s Erica Hill speaks with EPA administrator Michael Regan and asks him if things are safe.  The hedge and qualifiers are off the charts alarming. WATCH:

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Yikes.  Never has “we are from the government, and here to help” seemed sketchier.  Even the CNN lady doesn’t seem to be buying what EPA Administrator Regan is selling.

Feb 19 2023

He Did It Again – General Secretary Admits NATO Has Been at War Against Russia in Ukraine Since 2014


Posted originally on the CTH on February 18, 2023 | Sundance 

I must admit that sometimes I scratch my puzzler, when I watch geopolitical influence agents say the quiet part out loud, and yet no one seems to pay any attention.

In case you missed it – a few days ago (2/14/23), NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stepped in front of the cameras for an impromptu presser following a meeting of the NATO Defence Ministers at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

General Stoltenberg openly tells western media that NATO has been in a war against Russia since 2014. That’s when the combined effort of western political leadership, led by the U.S. State Department and NATO forces, overthrew the former Ukraine government and established the country as the center for strategic military operations against Russia. This isn’t the first time Stoltenberg has made this admission.

Against this backdrop, the February 2022 military incursion by Russia into eastern Ukraine (Donbas region), can be viewed as a counter-offensive against the NATO advancement; yet, almost no one in western media seems to hold these NATO admissions as a reference point in their outlines of the conflict.  WATCH (06:07) Prompted:

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Feb 19 2023

It’s a 2016 Big Club Redux – RNC Likely to Demand Loyalty Pledge as Part of Debate Requirement


Posted originally on the CTH on February 18, 2023 | Sundance 

The Washington Post is framing this as a potential Ronna McDaniel requirement, however given the RNC under Reince Preibus ended up having the same 2016 pre-debate loyalty demand, the requirement is more likely an institutional Big Club proposal and not the idea of the chair.  The board and RNC charter members of the professionally Republican apparatus are the ones creating the litmus tests.

Essentially, you will remember in 2015 and 2016 the RNC demanded that all of the candidates swear an oath to whomever won the GOP nomination.  In the first Fox News debate of August 2015, the candidates were told to raise their hand if they were not willing to swear or affirm their intent to support the eventual nominee.  Everyone except Donald Trump (and Ben Carson) lied.  WATCH:

The construct of the loyalty oath was predicated around the fact the RNC institution did not support an outsider like Donald Trump using their club system to achieve the office of the presidency.  Trump was independent minded and held his own platform positions on trade, economics, border security and immigration that ran counter to the approved policy positions of professionally Republican members.

The RNC, as an institution of life-long tenured club members, viewed Donald Trump as not an acceptable RNC candidate, and therefore were worried he would mount an independent run if the RNC effort to remove him from their party was successful. The alternative fifteen candidates were all previously approved by the RNC establishment, except Donald Trump.

As a consequence, in the 2016 contest the RNC sought to portray Donald Trump as unapproved, yet they simultaneously needed to keep up the false pretense that U.S. politics was not subject to the whims and approvals of two monopolistic private corporations (RNC and DNC).  In the decade that preceded the 2016 election, CTH was one of the few places not pretending about this dynamic.

However, in the years following the 2016 revelations, there has been a much larger awakening.  The 2012 result of Mitt Romney (7% primary support) combined with the 2016 Hillary outcome (22% primary support) and the 2020 Biden outcome (6% primary support) have solidified as examples of how these corporation’s function.

Thankfully, today more voters understand that U.S. political candidates are controlled by two private corporations and the billionaire financial donors/institutions who fund them.

Here we enter the 2024 contest, again with the same pretenses needing to be maintained; thus, we see a replay of the loyalty test being demanded by the RNC to qualify the candidates for debate stage entry.

Unfortunately for the RNC, the overwhelming majority of 2016 RNC approved candidates, those who made and affirmed the pledge, lied about it.  The reality of their effort to tear down and diminish the eventual nominee Donald Trump, including during the general election and well into his administration, stands as empirical evidence of the bullshit construct of the loyalty oath. Insert the reminder of Senator Ted Cruz saying “vote your conscience” at the 2016 RNC convention and getting booed off stage.

The only honest person on that debate stage in August 2015, was the guy who raised his hand, Donald J Trump.

(WASHINGTON DC) -Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel is so concerned that party disunity will sink GOP hopes in the 2024 presidential election that she plans to require all candidates on the official primary debate stages to first pledge their support to the party’s eventual nominee.  But many of the likely contenders are pushing back.

Former president Donald Trump said this month that he won’t commit to supporting the winner if he loses the nomination. “It would have to depend on who the nominee was,” he told a conservative radio host. Former Maryland governor Larry Hogan, another potential candidate, recently tweeted that he “won’t commit to supporting” Trump.

Others have settled on more nuanced hedges. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who just created a new organization to help him explore a possible campaign, says he will support the eventual nominee, but is certain Trump won’t be that person. Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who has not decided on whether to sign a pledge, has gone so far as to speak with McDaniel about his opposition to it, arguing that Republicans should not be enforcing litmus tests.

“Historically, our party has not taken party loyalty oaths,” said Hutchinson, who returned to Iowa this week as he explores a possible campaign launch in early April. “For leaders such as myself who believe Donald Trump is not the right direction for the country — and I said specifically that Jan. 6 disqualified him — that would certainly make it a problem for me to give an across-the-board inclusion pledge.”

The pushback has underscored McDaniel’s concern but has not shifted her plans, according to multiple people involved in the process who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the planning. The Republican National Committee’s Temporary Standing Committee on Presidential Debates plans to meet next Wednesday and Thursday to formally set the rules for officially sanctioned debates this year. They intend to require candidates to sign a pledge to support the eventual nominee modeled on a similar document circulated by the RNC in 2015.  (read more)

Oaths, loyalty pledges, litmus tests… all of it… None of it makes a damned bit of difference.  Because in the big picture, the professional Republican apparatus will never support Donald Trump… because the multinational RNC donors at risk from the America First economic agenda, will not allow it.