President Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale discusses how the campaign used social media to break through the firewall of MSM control. Additionally, Parscale confronts the reason why the approach is needed in an era where MSM gatekeepers attempt to manipulate the type of information.
Within the interview Brad Parscale directly confronts the MSM gate-keeping mindset, as advanced by an interviewer who is ideologically predisposed to support control over any content he disagrees with. The result is a lengthy but very interesting interview.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their manufacturing review today highlighting continued expansion of the underlying economy. The results today from within the overall manufacturing industry emphasize the 27th consecutive month of growth…. and a future-view that seems to be predicting much more. Much more!
ISM Release […] Manufacturing expanded in November, as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. “This indicates growth in manufacturing for the 27th consecutive month, led by strong new orders, production output and continued slowing supplier delivery performance,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. (more)
Okay CTH, so take the business wonk-speak out of this – what does it mean?
Here’s the summary: Manufacturers are increasing new orders (making more stuff). Production outputs and employment within the manufacturing sector are still growing. Suppliers are still having a tough time filling material orders, but they are finding new and innovative ways to speed up shipments of raw material. However, despite the speed (increased efficiency in delivering the raw material), the backlog of requests is still growing (new orders exceed supply chain). Customer inventories are too low (hence the backlog for new stuff). Inflationary pressure still exists, but the rate of price growth is slowing (increased supplier efficiency). Manufacturing exports and imports are growing. The economy is expanding.
The story within the manufacturing sector is the story within the middle-class U.S. economy. This is MAGAnomics at work.
The bad news is, if you can call it bad news, that our America-First economy is so strong we are struggling to produce, secure and ship enough stuff to fuel the underlying demand. Every nation wishes they had this problem.
The manufacturing sector is trying to find ways to produce more stuff, as the infrastructure for producing more stuff is not yet ready. When the new production capacity (prior investment) comes on-line, it will be easier to make more stuff.
“Efficiency Drivers” – You are seeing this in a few different ways. [Transport] Think about tractor-trailers (18 wheel big rigs) on the roads; you are seeing more dual-trailers being hauled. This is a way to ship more stuff, quicker. Additionally, Trump’s cabinet is pushing the economic gas pedal with DOT Secretary Elaine Chao allowing younger (18-year-old) apprentice truck haulers; to help fill the insatiable need for truck drivers etc.
The manufacturing expansion shows up in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics production efficiency third quarter report known as “Productivity”.
BEA – Q3 […] Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (more)
Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.
If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time. Your productivity, measured in the last four loaves, is higher.
Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation. Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.
From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%. However, in the third quarter of 2018 productivity was strong at 2.2% [Q2 productivity 2.9%]. That means total business output increased significantly as more product was demanded from within the business operation. Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.
Improved gains in efficiency/productivity (more bread needed) supports faster economic growth without generating higher inflation; no need to raise prices because your cost to make each loaf of bread decreases the more you make. Higher sales and lower per unit cost means more profit for the bread-maker at the same price. No need to raise prices. Without inflation, there should be no motive for the Fed to raise interest-rates.
Increases in productivity generally means the economy is generating more stuff. The more stuff generated the higher the value of all economic activity; this increases GDP growth.
When we see higher productivity in direct alignment with GDP increases, the increased production indicates sustainable GDP growth.
We made 4.1 percent more stuff, and only worked 1.8 percent longer. The net is a 2.2 percent productivity increase:
Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.9 percent. Productivity increased 1.5 percent in the durable manufacturing sector, as output rose 4.9 percent and hours worked increased 3.4 percent. Over the last four quarters, total manufacturing sector productivity increased 1.3 percent, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. Unit labor costs in manufacturing increased 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2018 and increased 0.9 percent from the same quarter a year ago. (link)
So what do we have? Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; record low unemployment; and rising wages – meaning more money in your pocket.
These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable, and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.
This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.
Pleased to join @IvankaTrump, @BetsyDeVosED, @SecretaryAcosta and Swiss Economics Minister @_BR_JSA at today’s MOU signing on #apprenticeships. This agreement provides an opportunity for the U.S. to apply on a broad scale the best practices from the Swiss apprenticeship system.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses some of the key specifics within the dinner table conversation between President Trump and Chairman Xi. [*note* at the very end of this briefing, Kudlow is asked about the German auto visit tomorrow]
President Trump has been brutally consistent for more than three decades on his intent and purpose with the Chinese. President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask. Additionally, while carrying out the objectives of the confrontation, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer and adviser Navarro are well aware of Beijing’s panda mask; POTUS Trump will never let them forget about it.
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With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the Chinese tariff results are now measurable. A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf), identified that approximately 4.5% of the current tariff impact is being carried by American consumers. The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.
There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of China very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership. Trump knows how to play their panda/dragon games.
In June and July last year it became obvious President Trump was going to initiate a full-frontal geopolitical confrontation with China based on their ambitions for economic conquest. We labeled the confrontation: Eagle -vs- Red Dragon.
Specifically around: intellectual property theft; massive U.S. trade imbalances; imposed tariffs, and ridiculous non-tariff barriers put in place by China, we anticipated the conflict would eventually force Beijing to drop the Panda mask and expose their economic intentions. Additionally there was clarity within President Trump’s approach for any observer who was willing to accept the history of Mr. Trump’s views on the larger issues. In short, POTUS Trump will not back down.
In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices. [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce. However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up.
Due to the severity of communist ideology, and the intransigence of China to make any modification to their global economic plans, Chairman Xi Jinping made the strategic decision to elevate the confrontation in full Red Dragon mode. The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress. The 301 review of China was pulled back off the shelf in August 2018, and President Trump began executing his trade-war strategy.
When President Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, in combination with Round #1 tariffs on imported Chinese products, the Wall Street financial media went bananas with dire predictions of inflation.
However, in September, October and November the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August and Sept measures of inflation in consumer goods. Despite the doom-and-gloom predictions from the self-interested multinationals, the inflation rate is still below 0.2% the same result as July ’18. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, is hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% overall.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 250,000 in October, following an average monthly gain of 211,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job growth occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)
Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; low unemployment; and rising wages.
These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.
This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.
President Trump’s economic policy cabinet is the most effective group of individuals every assembled in modern U.S. history; arguably in all of U.S. history. The economic policy plans are working exactly as projected; and, in combination with the domestic economic strength, this empowers President Trump’s international engagements with a stunning amount of influence and leverage.
Economic Security is National Security. We are seeing this multidimensional truth being carried out for the first time in our lifetimes, thanks to a blue-collar billionaire.
One of the less discussed aspects to President Trump’s economic cabinet is the careful selection of specific members who operate above the financial influence of ‘The Big Club’. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are two key positions able to focus on economic nationalism without worrying about undue influence from the globalist lobbying pressure of Tom Donohue and the U.S. CoC.
The baseline of financial independence, and disconnect from self-interest, is unique in our lifetime; and allows the resulting execution of economic policy to focus, very deliberately, on America First objectives. Secretary Mnuchin discusses the China confrontation:
A lengthy interview (recently released) between Greta Van Susteren and President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina. The topics include: the USMCA trade agreement; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; overall global trade; issues within the global climate change economy; Brexit, China, the U.S. economy and immigration.
As most CTH readers are aware MAGAnomic policy, economic nationalism, is the largest focus of President Trump. Beyond all other issues, this is the POTUS priority. Within this interview the president walks through the geopolitical issues and interests for the U.S. economy. Well worth watching:
The austerity measures of the EU are having a profound impact in Europe. In Paris of December 1st, 2018 (right on time with our volatility models for December) there was a major civil uprising, the worst France has witnessed in recent decades. Yellow Vests have converged in Paris to protest high living costs or in other words – a TAX RIOT. Rioters ran across central Paris torching cars and buildings, looting shops, smashing windows and clashing with police. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, was in Argentina for a G20 summit and said he called an emergency meeting on Sunday when he would return. Jeanne d’Hauteserre, the mayor of Paris’ 8th district, near the Arc de Triomphe, came out and told the press: “We are in a state of insurrection, I’ve never seen anything like it.”
This has followed what was billed as a violent protest two weeks before of nationwide against fuel taxes and living costs. This tax rebellion is known as the “Yellow Vest” movement after fluorescent jackets kept in all vehicles in France. Politicians simply never learn. This is not just the youth. This is the older generations as well. Revolutions come become of taxes and corruption. The famous saying of Marie Antoinette “Let them eat cake” was the popular slogan during the French Revolution. There is no evidence that she ever actually said those words. Still, it inspired a revolution. The “cake” was not a desert, but it was a term that referred to the crust of the pâté which was left over. It certainly seems that the EU politicians are making the very same mistake. With that callous remark that was attributed to her, the Queen of France became the most hated symbol of the decadent monarchy and fueled the revolution that would cause her to (literally) lose her head several years later.
In Paris, the police fired stun grenades, tear gas and water cannon at protesters on the tourist street known as the Champs-Elysees boulevard. The police said they had arrested almost 300 people while 110 were injured, including 20 members of the security forces. As a consequence, there are now parts of the city of Paris completely void of police as there was a shortage to defend the entire city. This has resulted in groups of masked men roaming and looting through its fanciest shopping districts, smashing the windows of designer boutiques.
We can easily be witnessing the start of the next French Revolution. Our model for civil unrest interesting turned up in France on February 18th, 2013. The year before on May 6th, 2012, François Hollande was elected as the new president of France. While he may go down as perhaps the worst president in French history, on May 5th, 2013 is when the protests in Paris began. That first protest numbered in the tens of thousands marking the rising discontent with the Socialist François Hollande after just one year in power. Even the many supporters of leftist parties expressed dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy.
Ever since the civil unrest began on May 5th, 2013, there has been a building on economic tension within France. The lack of economic growth has plagued France and Europe as a whole. The French share market peaked in 2000 and has been unable to elect ANY Yearly Bullish Reversals to date and 2018 appears to be no different for this year’s closing.
This latest series of popular rebellions erupted on November 17th, 2018 and has spread quickly via social media, with protesters blocking roads across France and impeding access to shopping malls, factories, and some fuel depots. The gather at the Arc de Triomphe, chanting “Macron Resign” and writing graffiti on the Arch itself: “The yellow vests will triumph.”
Macron held a news conference in Buenos Aires where he said that there was no cause justified the looting of stores, attacking the security forces, or torching of property. Macron totally fails to comprehend that the violence is building frustration that historically is necessary to mature into a revolution. This is not a political movement. This is economically driven. The police said that violent far-right and far-left groups had infiltrated the yellow vests movement in a desperate effort to call them extremists. These protests began as a backlash against Macron’s fuel tax hikes, but have tapped into a growing resentment that all people get are higher taxes and lower standards of living.
While the protests appear to have caught Macron off-guard despite the fact that his poll rating is now down to 20%, like François Hollande, Macron is unrepenting and unyielding. He said he would not change his policy because of the protests of “thugs”. This only fuels the angry response that he is also out of touch with ordinary people, particularly in rural villages and the provincial hinterlands. There were people with signs reading “Macron, stop treating us like idiots!” Macron is inspiring real hatred as did Hillary Clinton when she called 50% of the country who voted for Trump the “deplorables!”
Macron may call them “thugs” but the “Yellow Vests” have widespread public support, even in cities. The vast majority of French people were fed up with Macron. You can see the anger is escalating more and more throughout France, according to my sources there, and Macron is as unyielding as was Hollande. Some say that Macron had written a book called Revolution. He obviously failed to understand what really makes a revolution – TAXES
The Australian MP Michael Danby (outgoing) is to table the “Australian Magnitski Act” which is very strange. Things like this always seem to be presented by people who later do not stand for election. Nothing other than Browder’s narrative has considered. There appears to be an agenda here and it is building to what looks like a much needed war in order to relieve governments of the failure of Socialistic promises. Nobody seems willing to even look at the allegation of Browder for there was no way Putin would have killed Magnitsky when he would have been the BEST witness Putin would have had against the Western bankers.
On his Facebook page, Danby claims Australia needs a Magnitsky Act. That’s why I’ll be introducing a Private Member’s Bill on Monday to ensure it happens
Too funny… this is what we would call a win/win. President Trump delivering remarks to the media aboard Air Force One on the flight back to the U.S.
(Via Associated Press) President Donald Trump says he will shortly be providing formal notice to Congress that he will terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement, giving lawmakers six months to approve the replacement he recently signed.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One while returning to Washington from Argentina, Trump says: “I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly.”
Seeking to gain leverage with skeptical lawmakers to approve the revised trade pact, Trump says Congress “will have a choice” as it considers the agreement he signed with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Friday during the Group of 20 summit.
He says they can choose between the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or “pre-NAFTA, which works very well.”
Trump has made renegotiating NAFTA a centerpiece of his presidency. (link)
The USMCA is structurally more beneficial to the U.S. and Mexico than Canada.
Factually, it was the U.S. and Mexico who wrote the agreement, and Canada joined in only to mitigate their losses after the majority growth architecture was constructed. There is almost nothing inside the USMCA agreement which structurally expands the Canadian economy; it is a very weird trade-dynamic.
It was the exploitative nature of the NAFTA construct that benefited Canada and Mexico to the detriment of the United States. As a result, President Trump is OK with the final USMCA result which removes the majority of the parasitic benefits; and he is ok with no USMCA and no NAFTA, and a return to pre-NAFTA trade structures.
Like NAFTA the USMCA is a “trade agreement”, with various opt-out initiatives for any party; it is not a trade “treaty” – and therefore only requires a simple majority vote.
President Trump and USTR Lighthizer really have created a Win/Win.
…”He says [congress] can choose between the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or “pre-NAFTA, which works very well.””..
Damnedest thing ever.
You could hope it passes; or hope it fails – the end result is similar.
“The President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and President Xi Jinping of China, have just concluded what both have said was a “highly successful meeting” between themselves and their most senior representatives in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Very importantly, President Xi, in a wonderful humanitarian gesture, has agreed to designate Fentanyl as a Controlled Substance, meaning that people selling Fentanyl to the United States will be subject to China’s maximum penalty under the law.
On Trade, President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10% rate, and not raise it to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately.
President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.
It was also agreed that great progress has been made with respect to North Korea and that President Trump, together with President Xi, will strive, along with Chairman Kim Jong Un, to see a nuclear free Korean Peninsula. President Trump expressed his friendship and respect for Chairman Kim.
President Xi also stated that he is open to approving the previously unapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him.
President Trump stated:
“This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honor to be working with President Xi.” (Link)
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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