Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The Global Market Watch (GMW) was created for one of the top 10 banks in the world. It allowed them to look at their entire portfolio without reading a thousand reports. This allowed them to hone in on what might need their attention. As they commented, this is like having 1,000 trading assistants. We really are too busy advertising or engaging in marketing campaigns. You can die from having too much business. As is the case with offices worldwide, someone is always awake. This was designed for large institutions to save time and provide an important tool for investing.
The comments are a work in progress since the model still identifies new patterns. Socrates is proving that all the theories from the nonsense of Random Walks, etc., are just excuses for people incapable of comprehending how the world functions. The GMW records a pattern REGARDLESS of the market and assigns a number you see under the comment. That same pattern shows up in every market because the instrument is irrelevant – it is how human nature interacts with that market.
We can create a GMW for your entire portfolio to give you a fast glance at your portfolio. We are currently working on providing the same tools that I have used so you can ask question and it will respond. We are considering creating a terminal so it will access our systems and provide you with an impressive assistant.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1: Mr. Armstrong, you used to provide your reports rebranded to an institution’s name in Tokyo. Would you consider that for other countries?
GL
ANSWER #1: Yes. We would articulate the turning points rather than include the arrays. That would make it too identifiable, tracing back to us. But certainly, we can do that and attack an institution’s name, such as a reputable bank or brokerage house. We can replace the majority of the cost of research. We have a database of virtually every stock in the world.
QUESTION #2: Can I request that a particular stock be added to Socrates?
Posted originally on Dec 13, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume was booed by a crowd of 20,000 employees after stating that the company is not “operating in a fantasy world.” The company already saw 100,000 union members walkout on Monday. “As management we’re not operating in a fantasy world. We are making decisions in a rapidly changing environment,” Blume stated. But the fantasy of climate change is indeed what the company is operating under.
Blume said that Volkswagen must begin to offload vehicles to Chinese consumers. Why would Chinese consumers by a European EV when they can purchase a Chinese model for a fraction of the cost? I recently discussed how even American auto CEOs were praising the technological advances of Chinese EVs. China was once a large market for Germany’s auto exports but that has changed since the government applied countless regulations in the name of climate change.
Then Volkswagen had its emissions scandal where it falsified emissions testing to sell to US consumers. I wrote in 2015: “This event appears to highlight the turning point of 2015.75; in hindsight, we will probably look back at this turning point as the start of a serious economic decline that will strike Europe’s biggest economy. The German car industry is the largest and what is unraveling is a taint upon all German cars, which is unfair. This involved diesel only. Nonetheless, things are never always fair.”
Now the company is looking to cut pay for 120,000 workers. Operating profits have fallen by 11.4% and they simply cannot continue producing these EVs at the same pace they were producing dreaded fuel-powered cars because the demand is not there. The government is actively preventing the auto industry from flourishing. It is a fantasy to believe that the German auto industry can continue adhering to the country’s climate change objectives that believe it can reduce carbon emissions by 65% within the next 5 years.
Yet another reason why the entire European Union is facing a recession. Germany is the bread and butter of the EU – the economic powerhouse. You had 17% of all GDP in Germany derived from the auto industry in 2023, and now the nation’s top auto manufacturer is struggling to make a profit.
China was a key player for Germany. Germany sold 241,000 vehicles to China in 2023, marking a large portion of its market share at a value of €15.1 billion. Auto suppliers were able to sell some €11.2 billion to China last year. Currently, one in five cars on the road in China have been manufactured in Germany. Yet, China’s own auto industry grew 156% over a two-year period from 2021 to 2023 after exporting 4.14 million vehicles last year. China is not adhering to the climate change agenda, and those same regulations derived from fictional data are not strangling China’s energy-dependent sectors.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz called China a “systemic rival,” but he failed to acknowledge the government’s role in stifling the private sector. The German Chamber of Commerce in China conducted a study this past September that revealed half of the 566 surveyed businesses planned to invest more heavily into China. Only 2% said they would be willing to sell off their Chinese operations, and 7% said they were considering a move away from China. Instead of working on open trade, all of the Western nations have deemed China an unfriendly nation to be wary of.
The move to end climate change is fundamentally driving a stake through the very heart of the German economy and therefore the entire EU. The mercantile economic model will continue to collapse under the fantasy world of climate change. While they may not reduce their carbon footprint, the Germany economy is certainly on track to reduce its economic footprint in the years ahead.
Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The migrant crisis in Europe is far worse than the mainstream media will let on. It began in 2015 when then Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the door to Syrian refugees. That door has remained open, and a new wave of unaccompanied men who do not understand or respect Western women have made the country a dangerous place to live or even travel.
A 20-year-old American woman traveling alone in Germany was sexually assaulted by a 64-year-old Eritrean migrant at Kaiserslautern train station. After exchanging words, the woman pulled out a knife and struck her attacker with a fatal blow to the heart. She claims she was acting on pure instinct, and video surveillance verifies her claims. However, proof of intent to kill is not required by German law to be tried.
“The public prosecutor’s office does not believe that the stabbing was justified by self-defense,” a spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told reporters. Authorities have charged her with bodily harm rather than manslaughter, but still, she now could face up to 10 years imprisonment.
Should she have allowed this man to proceed? The German authorities would have preferred it that way as they have been ignoring the wave of migrant violence against women for many years. In 2015, over 1,200 girls across Germany were sexually assaulted by 2,000 men.
Initially, there was dead silence from officials and the press was not reporting the truthafter joining the cover-up conspiracy. Only after reports hit the internet (we even had clients contacting us) did the truth begin to surface. The police were even told to remove the word “RAPE” from all official reports on the Cologne attacks. Police Chief Wolfgang Albers, age 60, was fired after criticizing the police’s lack of involvement during the incident.
Now, foreigners account for 41% of all crimes in Germany after rising by 23% in 2022 and 19% in 2023. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vowed to address this matter and increase border patrol measures. On the other hand, he says Germany has an international obligation to permit foreigners to seek asylum. How are women to protect themselves when the law is skewed in favor of migrants? The law will not permit a woman to use weapons in self-defense if her attacker is unarmed, even if he could easily overpower her. Every country led by such leftist ideology is facing a similar, dangerous situation.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
CEO of Lucid Motors and a former VP of engineering at Tesla Peter Rawlinson says his company is stuck in the EV “valley of death” as EVs in America “frankly suck.” Rawlinson admitted that China has an advantage in technology, but more over, they have the ability to produce affordable EVs.
“I think the Chinese do have a fundamental advantage because when the government says go, they all go in the same direction instead of arguing with each other,” Rawlinson said. China has provided over $230 billion to its newly emerging EV sector since 2009. “I’d say they’re still behind in terms of the core EV powertrain technology, but don’t underestimate them,” Rawlinson added.
The CEO also said that he personally drives the competitors cars and believes the “American public has been ill-served by underwhelming EVs.” His company is on track to produce a new electric SUV called Gravity that will retail for $94,900. Quality EVs are available in America but they come at a steep price which is why they have not become mainstream.
He is not alone in his thinking among industry leaders. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares previously believed China’s EVs would have a similar reception to the US public that Japanese autos did back in the 1970s. That was
Batteries account for around 40% of the total cost of EVs, and companies like BYD are able to maintain low prices are they own the supply chain to create these batteries from the raw materials to the finished packs.
The West is unaware how affordable Chinese EVs actually are without tariffs. The BYD Seagull EV Honor Edition starts at about $9,700. The BYD Dolphin EV Honor costs only $13,900 and the BYD Yuan electric SUV is $16,600. You cannot find used cars for these prices in the US, let alone an EV.
If those pushing to eliminate fossil fuels were truly concerned about emissions, they would permit China to import these EVs to Europe, Canada, and America without astronomical tariffs. Capital makes the world flow. They are deliberately preventing the Western public from purchasing affordable, good quality vehicles. Instead, they expect the average man to take on tens of thousands in debt to buy a lower quality car to save on fuel.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The International Monetary Fund is willing to provide El Salvador with a $1.3 billion loan, but the nation must meet two demands. First, El Salvador must commit to reducing its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP over the next three years. The second requirement is for El Salvador to begin backing away from bitcoin.
El Salvador declared bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The nation holds a bitcoin Treasury worth over $600 million as of lately with bitcoin’s recent price spike and has been purchasing about 1 btc per day. President Nayib Bukele recently took to social media to declare the success of his bitcoin adaptation, claiming gains of over 127%. Yet, the public has not largely adopted the new currency. In fact, the Central American University conducted a study in January that revealed 88% of citizens have not used bitcoin in transactions over the previous year.
Under the new IMF requirement, El Salvador must prohibit the legal requirement that states businesses must accept bitcoin as payment. Under this premise, bitcoin could not truly be considered legal tender.
As I have said, global organizations will not permit crypto to operate freely outside their control. I must agree with the IMF that Bitcoin’s volatile pricing presents financial instability and exposes government revenue to greater foreign exchange rate risks. Bitcoin is merely a trading vehicle and not a proper currency. However, the IMF also states that it is concerned about anti-money laundering practices. which simply means they are concerned that they cannot tax it.
Taxation goes hand in hand with lowering the budget deficit, as the nation has been steadily increasing tax revenue. Tax revenues reached 17.64% of GDP in 2017, later advancing to 19.75% in 2022. The government has several measures in place for tax evasion and has improved its digital taxpayer registry to see who has underpaid. There is hope that the recent discovery of gold will offset the hunt for taxation, and the president does seem to be a reasonable man. Perhaps El Salvador will not require a loan if it has truly found trillions worth of gold. It appears that Nayib Bukele will not back away from his stance on bitcoin either way.
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