The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on December 10, 2022
Interesting material
PUTIN & Viktor Bout Drop TRUTH BOMBS On West
Tag Archives: Terrorism
US Colonel: Ukrainian ANNIHILATION In Bakhmut
The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumbles on December 10, 2022
An interesting take of the situation there.
Real Estate Down & Dirty
Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I want to thank you for Socrates. It picked the turn in the real estate in January amazingly. Do you see the high-end and regional divergences continuing?
WH
ANSWER: Yes. The Directional Change for 2021 was spot on. Our index began declining in January 2022 anticipating the first rate hike on March 17, 2022, by a quarter point. We would expect lower prices into 2023 and this should be the typical 2-year reaction low. It appears that post-2023, we would begin to see the shift where private assets will start to trade at a premium to the public assets of the government. The spread between government and private will decline as was the case during the Great Depression as countries began to default on their debt.
Yellen Direct IRS to Audit Everyone for $600 Transactions Anyway
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
I really do have to wonder if my dog is smarter than most Americans who seem to have just lost their minds. My dog makes connections, anticipates what I will do, and studies my habits to predict and respond. I never knew a dog was really smart. She has learned numerous words and I have had to even spell certain words for she will respond if she hears the word. Dogs are indeed far more intelligent than I ever expected. Various studies show a dog is typically as intelligent as a two-year-old human. I can point in the sky at an airplane and she looks up. Not even a chimpanzee does that, or apparently most Americans. If you point to evidence they will not look.
The majority of Americans just listen to the propaganda, never questions anything, and assume the government is always telling them the truth because they care. Janet Yellen tried to get Congress to pass a formal act that banks and everyone had to report on Americans for every $600 transaction. Congress refused and her story was they were after the evil super-rich. The problem, the rich really are not selling stuff on eBay, using cash apps for side deals. That is the realm of the young and lower income.
So after the Biden Administration lost that battle, they simply told the IRS to do it on their own. Any transaction online over $600 is not subject to audit and you will find out the real reason they hired 87,000 armed IRS agents. You certainly do not need 87,000 IRS Agents to hunt down the 735 billionaires in the United States. They outright lie to your face, and many cheer.
People will NEVER wake up it seems. I have known politicians who actually believe that EVERYTHING belongs to the state, they decide on how much you are allowed to keep. They must have sipped history class for virtually EVERY Revolution in history was inspired by taxes. Even the famous line from Shakespeare “the first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers” actually refers to the king’s prosecutors for private people had not right to a lawyer. It was all about a revolution and the “lawyers” were confiscating people’s houses for their inability to pay taxes.
The American Revolution was also sparked by taxation. Remember the French Revolution and the slogan they attributed to the King’s wife – let them eat cake was also all about taxes and oppression
Futility of Price Controls
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT FROM HUNGARY: Dear Marty,
You were correct again. Price controls do not work in the long run. The Hungarian government introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel a few months ago, but a few hours ago this evening they had to let it go(they “tried everything in their power to help but the damn bureaucrats in Brussels who voted for the sanctions”.etc etc.).
The holiday season, panic buying, no gas another nail into the trust in our government’s coffin.
Marty these people really have no clue what the hell they’re doing. We have several food products that also have price controls: Wheat, sugar, eggs, etc. And interestingly supermarkets simply stop selling them or they sell brown sugar (no price control) instead of white sugar (price controlled, the maximum amount you can purchase in one go is 3kg i believe). When will they learn (not admit) or at least stop blaming others for their own brain-dead decisions?
I honestly hope that whatever the hell comes after 2032 will be better than this nonsense.
Thanks for all you do Marty. Keep up the fight, and get some well-needed rest during the holidays. I reckon you’re getting more phone calls than usual…
All the best,
RH
ANSWER: You know the most astonishing fact is that this was not even my personal opinion. All one need do is consult history. NEVER has any attempt to freeze prices to prevent inflation EVER worked even once.
The Roman emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) tried to impose wage and price controls in an effort to prevent inflation that was soaring because of a collapse in confidence in the Roman government. The Edit on Maximum Prices was imposed during 201AD. It was an utter failure.
Even if we go back to the 4th century B.C., the Roman government bought corn (grain) and, in times of shortage, it re-sold it at a low fixed price to try to prevent inflation from shortages – as we have today. In 58BC, the Roman Senate went even further and granted every citizen free wheat. The politicians were trying to bribe the people as they are doing once again today. What happened was that the farmers began moving back to the city of Rome because they could live and eat without working – it was free. By the time Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon, one in three Romans was receiving government wheat. He was forced to create a census and found there were more people claiming welfare than there were possible people.
Those in government ALWAYS assume that since they possess a pen, they can write whatever law they desire and they will comply or be thrown in prison until they die. I was named FOREX Person of the Year in 2015 because we forecast the Euro/Swiss peg would break. I even met with the Swiss Central Bank and warned that the peg would break. I was told they would be able to hold it. I replied I think the odds are on my side since NOBODY in history has ever been able to do this. There was the British pound peh into the ERM the broking making Soros all his money. In 1997, there was the Asian Currency Crisis where all the pegs broke. then there was even Bretton Woods which was a fixed exchange rate that broke in 1971 and in 1973 I was called in for the first bank failure due to foreign exchange.
I have done my best trying to warn governments that they CANNOT fix currencies and even when they were forming the G5 with the Plaza Accord in 1985, I was called in and warned that lowering the dollar by 40% would lead to a major currency crisis and a crash by 1987. Never have they ever listened.
Perhaps, the ONLY time anyone in Europe or the United States than anyone in government ever listen was perhaps in 1997. They were starting the jawboning of the Yen for trade purposes once again. I wrote to Robert Rubin and he has Timothy Geithner respond who later became the Secretary of the Treasury. China has listened, but other than in 1997, I cannot say any central bank or government has EVER heeded my warnings that history is on my side – pegs NEVER work.
$80 Trillion Derivatives Market
Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly report that there is $80 trillion dollar in off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. This has involved pension funds and other ‘non-bank’ financial firms.
What they do not explain is that each “debt” has a counterparty that has an “asset” and in theory, that works out to net zero. But there is counter-party risk that is not discussed. This doesn’t address the liquidity issue either. Still, it is not entirely a black hole as they seem to lead some to proclaim. What is also left unexplained or addressed is the question of if they are netting across all transactions. Many of the players in this market have offsetting positions. It is one thing to scream OMG the size of the stock market is too big, and another to yell fire in a crowded theater.
This $80 trill is effectively the derivatives market. It is what it is. Marking everything to market all the time isn’t a great answer either for there can be imbalances for a day or two in the middle of chaos. What is clear is that the BIS is raising concerns, in which it also said this year’s market upheaval took place without any major issues.
On the other hand, the BIS has been pushing central banks to raise rates to fight inflation which will only accelerate the crisis since it is shortage based. This is no different from the ’70s when there was an external price shock from OPEC,. Raising interest rates did nothing to prevent inflation, instead, it resulted in a strong dollar, the collapse of the pound to $1.03 in 1985, and the US national debt more than doubled on interest expenditures.
Nonetheless, the BIS has been quieter on the inflation front this time around. Just maybe, they are starting to realize that the old theories no longer work. The September UK government bond market turmoil was created by raising interest rates and the losses on holding long-term debt in the face of rising interest rates have been just the tip of the iceberg.
The FX swap markets have become huge. Our clients are well into the trillions these days whereas twenty years ago we had less than 5 clients at the $1 trillion threshold.
Nonetheless, the complexity of the cross-positions is the real risk. One side can blow out because of the chaos these braindead politicians are creating with this war against Russia.
Trading v Forecasts
Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecast Arrays Re-Posted Dec 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty; you should not be so hard on yourself. Nobody has tried harder than you to alter the outcome. Socrates is just unbeatable. I shared your hope that gold would have just cracked $1000 and that would have been a sling-sot up. But it stopped at $1045 and the reversals were elected and that was the end of that. As a long-term trader, I understood what you meant. I remember 1985 when gold just broke $300 and the leading gold analyst ___________ threw in the towel. You called that low and that’s when I started following your work. You weren’t just an analyst, you were a trader.
So ease up. You have done your best. As you said at the WEC, nobody has tried to defeat your own model as much as you, but you have always lost.
I for one hope you do Dubai in the Spring. It would be nice to see everyone in person again.
PD
REPLY: Oh, yes. I remember that trade. It takes a trader to understand why I said if gold could crack $1,000, it would then be propelled straight up into a slingshot. Perhaps one of the most important trading tools is that the market is like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction, the fast it will be propelled in the opposite. That is why when bubble markets peak, the vast majority of the decline takes place in two to three key time units thereafter. The failure of gold to have cracked that $1,000 psychological level is also when it has languished thereafter.
Here is the Array from October 1984. It called all the moves correctly and the major low was February with the Panic Cycle the very next month. The next temp high was on the next Directional Change in August 1985.
I have to admit, probably the one forecast of Socrates that really impressed me personally was the Array we published in 1999, which you can find on the Wayback Machine. It had targeted a Panic Cycle in 2008 – 10 years in ADVANCE! It was projecting the collapse globally of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Obviously, my personal comments are not forecasts. I cannot beat Socrates and nobody else can possibly beat it.
Trading observations are not forecasts. Even look at BitCoin Monthly. You see the standard 2-month decline, temp low, then the pendulum moves back in the opposite direction, but the power is diminished. The power is too strong on the decline side. These are just observations from being a trader. They are NOT the computer. So, yes, my comments are not forecasts but observations. The computer does the forecasting not me. Not even I can defeat Socrates.
Banks
Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Thank you for all you do. Your input has guided me well.
I suspect my Bank is in deep trouble. _____ bank in ____ CA.
They specialize in small business. First red flag was freezing my account for no reason. I then bounced a check because my account was frozen. They could not give me a reason for freezing my account. Then they offered me, according to them, a great investment deal, that was the second red flag. Then I was contacted by a relationship manger. This was the third red flag.
Will be closing all my accounts with ______ next week.
MC
REPLY: There are clearly problems emerging since interest rates have risen and many banks were not in a position to take the losses on long-term investments.
Always keep some cash. A word to the wise should be sufficient
Fixation with Numbers
Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: You Know…years ago, all these different monthly reports did not affect the markets day to day so much.
Now…Today..these reports send huge panic cycles in the markets every time they are announced. Doesn’t that tell you something about the future?? Doesn’t that tell you something about the US economy? The end keeps getting closer.
N
REPLY: This is clearly the uncertainty. Everything seems to be upside down. Nobody understands the future or what might even happen. Will there be war? Will inflation actually stop? Are we headed into a major recession? How can the markets rally facing a major recession? So many questions and most have just opinions.
Even my interpretations of the computer arrays are sometimes wrong. Things are unfolding on such a global scale that concerns are rising everywhere. You have North Korea shooting missiles off over Japan, NATO members think Ukraine should join NATO, and Iran is threatening nuclear war in the Middle East. All of this while Schwab tells the world we will own nothing and be happy. To many, it has become just flip a coin and see if you should buy or sell.
Imagine That – Wall Street Journal Finally Admits Energy Inflation Will Keep Retail Food Prices High, Regardless of Commodity Price Market
Posted originally on the CTH on December 2, 2022 | Sundance
A slight drop in the overall national pretending index is noted today; actually, more like a twitch toward the reality side of the meter.
CTH has been outlining the supply side inflation issue in the highly consumable goods sector, specifically the foods sector, for almost two years now. Mainstream and financial pundits have denied its existence.
According to the Friedman view of traditional economics, only monetary policy drives inflation. However, Friedman never lived in -nor fathomed- an era when the collective western governments would intentionally shrink the economy in order to save the planet via climate change.
The intentional diminishment of energy production is the #1 source of increasing consumer prices. Inflation is not an issue of high demand for the subsequent goods produced. Raising interest rates diminishes demand for durable goods but has zero impact on the increasingly higher prices of intentionally scare resources like oil, coal and natural gas.
While maintaining the pretending due to the alignment with multinational and corporate interests, the Wall Street Journal starts admitting today that prices are not likely to drop, regardless of commodity prices. Even with abundant harvests, strong grain & soybean production, abundant pork and beef commodities, the costs associated with the production of food products will stop any downward price pressure.
(WSJ) Global prices for commodities such as wheat and sugar have fallen back to where they were a year ago, but consumers are still likely to feel the pinch at the checkout.
[…] Higher energy and power costs are also fueling food-price inflation. “That product on the shelf has a lot of the oil price built in,” said Kathy Kriskey, a commodity strategist at Invesco.
Costlier energy means it costs more to transport and package food, while supermarkets are paying more to power their stores. Higher gas prices also lead to increased fertilizer costs, while wage bills are also rising rapidly.
Supermarkets have more incentive to freeze than to lower prices, Ms. Kriskey added, since that gives them more flexibility if other input costs such as energy rise further in the coming months. (read more)
Now think about the inflation dynamic from a source origination position.
If the variable of abundance/scarcity is removed from the equation and yet high consumer prices remain – then what was the primary originating cost pressure on the end product?
The globalists can keep pretending, which they certainly are, and yet the answer to that question is obvious.
Our current level of inflation is not an outcome of consumer demand and/or monetary supply. The current level of inflation is a direct outcome of lowering traditional energy development, raising the cost of energy production, making oil, coal and natural gas more expensive, and then watching prices rise from the supply side origination.
The scale of inflation is a direct outcome of the scale of energy price increase. As long as energy prices remain high, regardless of the abundance of the commodity the price for the foodstuff will remain high. Food inflation has nothing to do with food scarcity and everything to do with increases in the costs to produce food.
We are in a price plateau right now, waiting to see how much further energy production will be restricted.
This is what western political leaders call “managing the transition”. Put another way, they are managing the overall decline of western civilization.
Centinel2012 