Tag Archives: The Forecaster
Will the Dow Make New Highs?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis
Re-Posted Apr 20, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am a new reader. I was wondering if you agree with Trump that the stock market will make new highs.
Thank you for your time
JA
ANSWER: The market will make new highs, just not this instant. However, it will not make new highs because the economy will be strong. It will make new highs because governments have abused their power and their debts are far too excessive. Europe will be the first to default on its debt in a clever manner of transformation. The European Central Bank is dead in the water. They can offer no solution and have turned to ask for the cancelation of all paper money and the issue of federal coronabonds.
Capital will flee from government debt into equity when the people begin to realize we have reached the end game.
White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro Discusses China’s Manipulation of WHO, and Use of Defense Production Act…
April 15, 2020
White House Manufacturing Trade Advisor Peter Navarro is also leading the execution of the Defense Production Act to rally American resources in combating the Wuhan Virus. In this interview Navarro discusses the scale of Beijing’s influence over the World Health Organization as a propaganda operation.
Interestingly Navarro notes the Chinese delegation visit in January 2020 and the issues of human-to-human virus spread. CTH has long suspected U.S. intelligence on the Wuhan virus was behind Trump’s proactive health measures in November 2019. It would make sense for POTUS to have a heart-health evaluation prior to beginning a prophylactic regimen [hint hydroxychloriquine] and that might explain a particular advocacy emphasis later on. Just sayin’.
Additionally, Navarro again outlines the importance of returning our critical U.S. manufacturing back to the United States. Honeywell now making masks and GM making ventilators. Peter Navarro is a patriot; in the right place for this moment in history.
President Trump Announces OPEC+ Agreement to Limit Oil Production…
April 12, 2020
Though the U.S. and Canada are not part of the “OPEC Plus” group, President Trump has been leading negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia to broker a deal and stop their price war. Today President Trump announces an agreement between the major petroleum exporting countries to curb oil production by approximately 10 million barrels per day:
Additionally, there was a loggerhead within the negotiations as Mexico did not want to cut their production by the requested amount of 400,000 barrels daily. Mexico relies on oil as a large part of their economy. AMLO stated his economy could not withstand such a significant drop in state revenue. Economic security is, after all, national security.
President Trump broke the OPEC+ stalemate by agreeing to decrease U.S. production by 300k/barrels allowing Mexico to drop a more manageable 100k/barrels. Trump and AMLO reached an undisclosed agreement where Mexico will reimburse the U.S. later on.
I suspect the “reimbursement” will be more, well, strategically geopolitical than financial. [*nudge-nudge*, *wink-wink*, *say-no-more/say-no-more*] President Trump has an uncanny knack of collecting leverage for later, more strategic, purposes. Just sayin’.
(VIA CNBC) […] Sunday’s emergency meeting — the second in four days — came as oil-producing nations scrambled to reach an agreement in an effort to prop up falling prices as the coronavirus outbreak continues to hammer demand. The agreement also ends a price war that broke out between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the beginning of March, which further pressured oil prices as each sought to gain market share.
The group, known as OPEC+, initially proposed cutting production by 10 million barrels per day — amounting to some 10% of global oil supply — on Thursday, but Mexico opposed the amount it was being asked to cut, holding up the final deal.
Talks continued on Friday when energy ministers from the Group of 20 major economies met, and while all agreed that stabilization in the market is needed, the group stopped short of discussing specific production numbers.
Under OPEC+’s new agreement, Mexico will cut 100,000 barrels per day, instead of the 400,000 barrels per day it had initially been asked to cut.
The 9.7 million barrels per day cut will begin on May 1, and will extend through the end of June. (read more)
With such a significant slow-down in global oil demand due to the coronavirus mitigation efforts, massive tanker ships have been loaded with oil and sit at sea awaiting the global economy to restart generating the need for their cargo.
Two Weeks Ago…. President Trump and Defense Secretary Esper announced a major deployment of U.S. military to interdict narcotics trafficking from Central America.
On the surface the effort to deploy naval assets to the Caribbean and southern pacific is justified based on intelligence drug cartels will exploit the coronavirus pandemic to ship more narcotics into the U.S.
However, in the bigger picture there’s also a likelihood the Chinese Communist Party would work with their geopolitical allies in Central American regimes to further weaken the U.S. during a time of increased vulnerability.
In times of war, or severe geopolitical confrontation, exploiting a vulnerability is a common strategy. Therefore it’s a smart and prudent geopolitical move for President Trump and U.S. military to take very aggressive action against the cartels and their communist sympathizers. There’s more going on here than appears on the surface.
Ergo, sometime in the future…
Barr: “The president is very thankful for your cooperation“…
AMLO: “So you’re saying this is an offer I cannot refuse?“..
Barr: “The President is very thankful for your cooperation“…
Value of a Currency
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Apr 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
You have said that money is not gold, or silver, or oil, or fiat currency, but rather represents the collective elbow grease and ingenuity of a people. From the work of Socrates, which country or countries best typify this concept and therefore will become the better countries to live in, so that we may guide our families and children in that direction?
As always best to you and your vision, and thank you.
MB
ANSWER: What made America great was not our resources. The Silver Democrats tried to force a higher silver to gold ratio and were bribed by the silver miners. When the world was on the gold standard, that dictated the value of a currency in international FOREX markets because the value of the currency was just the metal content. Napoleon attempted to create that standard and the idea, known as the Latin Monetary Standard, was used after his defeat where the coins were all of the same weight and purity.
However, great disruptions to this standardized system of metals repeatedly led to major economic upheavals. The economy of Florence suffered from the tremendous economic crisis and people were burning down the houses of bankers because they blamed them without understanding the real cause. Due to the war between France and England, the French debased the coinage. This drove the price of silver up dramatically where there had been a two-tier monetary system — gold for international transactions and silver for domestic. Since wages were paid in silver, as the price rose, employers could no longer afford to operate and the economy crashed with a vast rise in unemployment.
Only after World War I and II did modern society begin to see that the value of a currency was not simply the metal content. There was a premium even over gold’s value attributed to the Romans, as was the case with silver and the Greeks. This is proven by so many surrounding nations imitating their coinage with the same metal content and weight showing that there was a premium over the raw metal.
China, Japan, and Germany all rose from the ashes because their people were productive. Once the unions began and extorted higher sums of wages beyond competitiveness, the USA began to see its labor move offshore for it was overpriced relative to the world because of also taxes on labor — not merely the hourly wage.
Adam Smith in his “Wealth of Nations” saw that it was not simply metal. If a farmer or candlestick maker sold something from London to Paris, they both returned with gold. It was the value of their labor that mattered.
Unfortunately, the socialists are leading the charge and have conspired together to bring down the economy to force political change. They are also weakening the West and inviting war. Just as Rome saw its economy decline sharply within 8.6 years during the 3rd century, the barbarian invasions began. These socialists have no idea what they have unleashed. The world economy will NEVER be the same all because of a pretend virus that has a death rate of 10% of the annual flu.
Unfortunately, the baton will pass to Asia. The West will be engulfed in civil strife. The Socialists have killed the economy precisely as did the communists during their revolutions in Russia and China. We have a turning point in 2021 even for Russia.
Industrialization in the Soviet Union was a process of accelerating the industrial potential of the Soviet Union to reduce the economy’s lag behind the developed capitalist states, which was carried out from May 1929 to June 1941.
The official task of industrialization was the transformation of the Soviet Union from a predominantly agrarian state into a leading industrial one. The beginning of Socialist industrialization as an integral part of the “triple task of a radical reorganization of society” (industrialization, economic centralization, collectivization of agriculture and a cultural revolution) was laid down by the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy lasting from 1928 until 1932.
In Soviet times, industrialization was considered a great feat. The rapid growth of production capacity and the volume of production of heavy industry (4 times) was of great importance for ensuring economic independence from capitalist countries and strengthening the country’s defense capability
WHO Feeds the Dragon?
What do you think “folks”? Who feeds the dragon?
By Joanna Rosamond —— Bio and Archives—April 8, 2020
The number of dangerous “imports” from China has been growing steadily. For years reports on toxic food and products have been swept under the mainstream media’s magic carpet and global outbreak alerts have been normalized by “…in a land far, far away…” fairy tales.The Virus
Yep, it originated in China. Right now the only legitimate complaint about the name of the virus could come from producers of Corona beer who have already lost more than $161 million in sales. While the leftist likes of an U.S Rep. with Chinese Facebook account flaunt their allergy to facts and lament “word xenophobia” , millions of people are paying the price for the newest “import”. The confined human “mass” doesn’t need to study Information Manipulation Theory (McCornack, 1992) to realize that “given information” provided them with a false perception of a deadly problem. Already in 2002 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread “unverified” to 37 countries. Ever since 2001, WHO’s disease outbreaks news from China juggled influenza A (H5N1) virus and SARS reports, not to mention alerts on “melamine-contaminated powdered infant formula”, streptococcus suis (a swine pathogen that causes meningitis, sepsis, pneumonia and endocarditis) and polio virus.
Toxic “Goods”
Affiliates of Chinese business in the USA and Europe clearly do not worry about customer trust and believe in raiding retail spaces and bombarding shoppers with no matter how harmful (but cheap) products. It’s not only about imposition of weird Chinese sizes and silly “translation” from Amazon: you could be purchasing a radioactive drywall or an “all-American” lead tainted toy for your kid. With lack of well-deserved penalty for false “Made in the USA” labels we can expect more than “Only American Hockey Puck” to show its true Chinese colors. To add insult to the long list of “unfair and deceptive acts” two California based manufacturers “forgot” to inform American soldiers and Veterans that funds from sales of deployment bags and other gear marketed for them (including American flag…) were feeding the dragon.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic has already caused war-like civilian casualties and disruption to economic activity world-wide. Some will deliberate on “pardonable” negligence; those who run towards the danger long enough not to believe in coincidences will consider coercive diplomacy or a leak from Wuhan’s lab. We are entering an era not only of hardship, but also of a great responsibility. Honorable leaders will have a duty of taking counsel from our best military erudites, we the people will have the task of supporting leaders who want to bring production of our meds, clothes and food back home; the leaders willing to make America, and the world—safe again. In his tweet from the 7th of April, 2020 President Trump rightly concluded “W.H.O really blew it”.
And yep, I do hope that “We will be giving that a good look”. And nope, I do not hate Chinese people; as a matter of fact I think that Dr. Li Wenliang deserves Nobel Prize more than a toxic politician.
What do you think “folks”? Who feeds the dragon?
Trump’s Main Street Marshall Plan
Some call small businesses the backbone of the American economy
Re-Posted from the Canada Free Press By Dr. Robert R. Owens —— Bio and Archives—April 7, 2020
How it was:Basking in the glow of renewed freedom birthed through the Trump era tax cuts and the President’s massive reversal of the regulation noose that’s strangled America for the past three years, small-business success has achieved record highs. The best economy in half a century unleashed by the lower taxes and fewer regulations inspired small businesses to hire more employees, to pay higher wages, and then to reinvest its capital.
This pandemic is what historians call a black swan event. It came out of nowhere and changed our perceptions forever. But having said that, the same conditions of lower taxes and less regulation still exist. Though currently stifled by the stay-at-home orders and self-quarantees this period of confinement and artificial limits is building a tsunami of pent-up demand.
As one of America’s main employers, the Small Business Administration tells us Main Street is the engine of our economy. Here are some facts about small businesses in America today:
- There are almost 21.5 million (90%) small businesses in the United States
- Small businesses are responsible for 39 percent of GNP.
- Small businesses are responsible for 52 percent of all U.S. sales and contribute about 21 percent of all manufactured U.S. exports.
- Small businesses contribute 44 percent of all sales in the country.
- Small businesses employ 54.4 million people, about 57.3 percent of the private workforce.
Some call these small businesses the backbone of the American economy. In this time of national sacrifice and emergency they deserve a government that addresses their needs.
Paycheck Protection Program
What’s been done:
In response to this crisis Congress passed, and the President signed the largest direct assistance program in American history. This, the third major bill in a month includes a novel plan for small businesses. Instead of just tax incentives or emergency loans hidden behind a hedge of bureaucracy it seeks to deliver right-now-relief through the Paycheck Protection Program.
One way to express this effort calls to mind one of the most successful government programs of all time. This is Trump’s Main Street Marshall Plan.
Through the Paycheck Protection Program businesses with fewer than 500 employees (including startups, sole proprietors, and the self-employed) can receive 100% federally guaranteed loans for eight weeks. Then if the loan is used to pay employees, rent, or utilities, or rehire employees who were laid off due to the virus, the loan is forgiven. The loan term is from February 15 to June 30.
This revolutionary piece of legislation saves small businesses the endless hassle of navigating the bewildering maze of the government bureaucracy which normally stands between citizens and government emergency relief. With this innovative plan small business owners can work with their local bank or any lender backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. This includes farmers. Those who feed the world can work with the same farm credit institutions they’re familiar with, the ones they already know and trust. All this without any bureaucrats in between the lenders and the borrowers.
The coronavirus pandemic is the greatest crisis as a nation we have faced in the lifetime of most Americans
American small businesses can take advantage of these loans right now, the sooner the better. The applications for these loans are located on the Treasury Department website.
The goal of the Paycheck Protection Program is to ensure small businesses are ready to relaunch as soon as America reopens for business. This act seeks to keep Main Street afloat by providing direct relief for small businesses and keeping tens of millions of workers on the payroll.
The coronavirus pandemic is the greatest crisis as a nation we have faced in the lifetime of most Americans. We have a great cheerleader in President Trump. He strives day in and day out to raise our spirits and to lead us out of this dire scenario straight back to prosperity and peace.
What to do:
Having said all this, I have to share my belief that government, even one that is being led by the greatest crisis manager of modern times, is not the answer to America’s problems. Only God can bring salvation whether we’re talking about an individual or a nation.
He once told us, “if My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.” And since God is the same yesterday, today, and forever, we can still claim that promise. Besides He also told us, “And we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to His purpose.”
Trust God and He’ll bring us through. Some may say, “What if we follow that advice and we catch the virus and die anyway?” All I can say is if we die trusting God, no matter what the reason, we sure will be healed then.
There is, a Reason, why YOUR, healthcare system is Broken — Obamacare, Obama!
Re-posted from the Canada Free Press By Andrew G. Benjamin —— Bio and Archives—April 7, 2020
If you’re wondering why this nation’s health care system is in disarray, unprepared, disorganized, and malfunctioning?First look in the mirror.
You voted for it in 2008 and then doubled down by voting for it again in 2012.
National health care system is called Obamacare
The national health care system is called Obamacare. It is still called Obamacare.
It’s been the law of the land for eleven and a half years, whereas rationing has begun weeks ago. Rationing of ambulances, rationing of beds and doctors, rationing of ventilators, rationing of medicine, and rationing of oxygen. Rationing of your lives!
Rationing for your family, children, parents and grandparents, friends and workmates.
Yes, You, AMERICA, voted for it.
You were warned what would happen.
You were warned about DEATH PANELS. You were warned about Obama’s Chief-of-Staff Rahm Emmanuel’s brotherEzekiel who drew up the plan, just as the Obamedia went on a coordinated campaign to defend it. You were warned about the former president and Nancy Pelosi who, in front of national cameras, told reporters “We’ll have to pass the bill so you will find out what’s in it.” We know what’s in it now, don’t we?
You were warned by Sarah Palin. You chose to draw mocking cartoons of her.
And then many of you laughed like neighing horses.
You mocked us. You parodied us
You mocked us. You parodied us on Saturday Night Live. You made fun of us. Accordingly, do not look to blame this president and Republicans to scapegoat, 100% of whom were solidly against Obamacare. Do not expect Donald Trump to FIX with more trillions of OUR hard-earned money, blood and sweat, what yours broke deliberately, stupidly, and irreversibly. Do not blame Trump for being behind the curve or out of touch when the CDC, NIH and the chief doctor you are defending now told the nation as late as January 21, there’s nothing to be concerned about
You will, but we, will, laugh, at, you. While sobbing as we bury ours.
Care to guess who, which family, friend, associate of yours will become the VICTIM of Obamacare next?
Even the far left agrees!
ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES – INDEED!
Gates – Stupid or Diabolical?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease
Re-Posted Apr 8, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Gates even admits it will take years to get back to the same economic level. He does not believe in Democracy. The people should have no right to vote for this shutdown. He believes in authoritarianism and we are too stupid to understand what is best for us.
There is no way the economy will EVER return to normal. People like Gates will insist upon his vaccines to be allowed to even work. He wants us to be tagged like cattle. What’s next? Sterilization and permits to have children? If you do not have a base level of IQ, you will be denied? Is that how he will reduce his paranoia about CO2?
Thomas Malthus FRS (1766–1834) had the same crazy ideas as Gates about the food supply. Malthus was wrong and Gates will be wrong. Society will expand as there is sufficient food supply. His analysis of the population is linear as is his analysis of CO2. Neither Malthus nor Gates every took into consideration there are cycles to everything.
Disease is a normal thing throughout history. When we head into these Solar Minimums, that is when plagues come because mainly of malnutrition. This is what Gates is accelerating. People who pick the crops are migrant workers. In Europe, people from Poland go south to pick the crops in Spain. They are locked down. Preventing people from working is already starting to impact the food supply. There is a risk of increasing starvation. For what purpose? To get Gates’ vaccine while you die from another disease and starvation?
This is a very serious situation. Gates is tipping society toward a serious human crisis because of his stupidity or diabolical plan to reduce population?
Why the Quantity Theory of Money will Fail ONCE Again
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Apr 8, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Your explanation of why increasing the quantity of money has failed seems to be the only explanation that is viable. Do you see the same outcome this time around?
PA
ANSWER: The academics assume we are morons. There is no comprehension of how human nature responds. Hoards of debased coins are found from the 3rd century and the fall of Rome. Under the academic view, inflation should rise by simply increasing the money supply presuming we will just be like kids in high school and party spending the cash with no regard for what comes tomorrow. When people do not TRUST the future, they will NOT spend the money – they hoard it. This is why the European Central Bank is moving to eliminate cash for Quantitative Easing since 2008 and negative interest rates since 2014 have absolutely PROVEN beyond a shadow of doubt that the Quantity Theory of Money is bogus.
Now ad to this reality the destruction of Capital Formation. My definition of this is not including capital goods. I use this term limited to liquid capital – cash, stocks, and bonds. Therefore, the Great Depression was so profound because when the sovereign debt of most countries was permanently defaulted on, this wiped out the Capital Formation in the United States because the conservative people bought the bonds and lost everything whereas the shareholders still have some value even if the company was liquidated.
What has taken place here is $2.2 trillion is nothing. It will not create inflation because the destruction of Capital Formation is just getting started. They already have to put in another $350 billion for small business relief and this will not be enough nor prevent permanent bankruptcies since these idiots want to keep the country locked down until June.
The loss to the economy will be close to $5-6 trillion in permanent damage so even $3 trillion will not be inflationary. If you lost $10,000 in the stock market and I hand you $2,000 for compensation, will you celebrate ane run out to party? Or will you hunker down and save it until you see a light at the end of the tunnel?





















