Tag Archives: Understanding cycles

Jul 14 2023

Part of Oregon Wishes to Join Idaho


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jul 14, 2023 by Martin Armstron

The “Greater Idaho” movement is gaining traction, with 12 counties now voting to secede Oregon to Idaho. This is precisely on target as the US is set to separate into individual states with their own governing bodies. State rights are how the nation was intended, but the politicians do not always represent the views of the people. Oregon has become increasingly liberal in recent years, legalizing drug use (including methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine), implementing light-on-crime policies, and far-left ideologies in schools and society in general. Oregon is the ninth most expensive state in the US and ranks 33rd in tax burdens despite not having a sales tax. Idaho, in comparison, has the 8th smallest tax burden and leans conservative.

Many may not know, but Oregon’s state lines were slightly adjusted 65 years ago in 1958. State lines may be redrawn with the approval of Congress and state legislatures. There was never a more vital need for state rights than now as two contradictory ideologies permeate America, eliminating what was once a united nation. Those supporting the Greater Idaho movement say that Oregon’s policies no longer represent their beliefs. “Idaho would have the satisfaction of freeing more than 380,000 rural Oregonians from woke progressive blue-state law,” the movement’s website states.

How does Idaho feel about this movement? The same way that people in Florida and Texas feel – do not move here if you’re going to continue to vote for the same policies that ruined your state. Some people truly do not realize that states vastly differ from one another due to political policies.

Another issue is that some of these counties are located in rural areas where jobs are scarce. “You look at the counties that we are proposing to add, they are through the roof. The average of those counties is 45% of those folks are on Medicaid,” Democrat Ilana Rubel said. “You look at the number on free and reduce lunch, in many of the cases its 95%, 100%. These are very, very low income counties folks.” I cannot confirm if her statistics are correct at this time, but yes, it is a problem.

This is a major issue as the east-west Oregon divide is reaching a breaking point. The people wishing to secede do not feel represented by their officials who are implementing increasingly extreme legislation. These movements will become prevalent across the US in the coming years. I say everyone who believes in the far-left ideology should head on over to a ruined blue state and live out their taxed, genderless, homeless, drug and crime-infested socialist version of utopia away from everyone else.

Jun 3 2023

May Jobs Report Show 339,000 Jobs Gained, Worked Hours Declines, Unemployment Rate Increases to 3.7%


June 2, 2023 | Sundance 

There is a strong divergence within the May jobs report as released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) [DATA HERE].  Payrolls increased 339,000 in May from April and previous months were revised up by 93,000. That is good news.  However, the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, showed employment down 310,000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

One of the aspects driving higher payroll starts are the number of people taking on additional part-time jobs.  This aspect is noted in a decline for the number of hours in the average workweek. As more PT jobs are added, the number of hours in a workweek declines. As noted in the BLS data, “the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in May.”

There were 161.0 million people working in April.  There are 160.7 million people working in May.

There were 5.7 million people unemployed in April.  There are 6.1 million unemployed people in May.

The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.7%.

There are 310,000 fewer people working in May than were working in April.  However, payrolls increased by 339,000 over the same timeframe. See graph above for where those jobs were gained.

(NBC) – […] Job gains were broad-based last month with health care contributing 52,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 48,000. Food services and drinking places led the increase in the latter industry, which had been adding an average of 77,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Overall, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs for the month, much better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%. The jobless rate was the highest since October 2022, though still near the lowest since 1969.

Olu Sonola, head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings, said the jobs report is a mixed bag.

“The strength of the payroll survey is clearly a big surprise, largely on the back of robust job growth in the healthcare sector and the business and professional services sector,” said Sonola. “However, the 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate is the highest monthly increase since April 2020.” (more)

WAGES – As noted within the BLS report, “In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent.” Wage growth still lags inflation; the middle class is getting poorer.  However, with the fed focused on wage growth as the leading indicator of their false pretenses to combat inflation, wage growth is too high (they want around 3.0%).

The Biden economic and monetary policies are delivering the results they want.  Higher energy prices, higher costs of living, lower real wages and increased middle class pressure. The serf model.

The BLS was forced to admit yesterday their Real Hourly Compensation growth was previously flawed.  [CHART DATA SOURCE]

That chart of revisions to real wages tells us a lot about the economic pain being felt by the working class in the U.S.  If it feels like you are working harder and going backwards in your ability to afford basic essentials, that’s because you are.

The prices for essential goods and services have risen at a much greater rate than the wages needed to afford them.  This is the result of Joe Biden’s energy policy, economic policy, and now magnifying monetary policy.

Our goods and housing costs are higher.  Our wages are not growing much.  The cost to borrow money to afford the gap is increasing.  This is unsustainable.

In my opinion, the economy overall – as a measure of units produced and sold – has been in a contracting position since the fourth quarter of 2021.  The appearance of economic growth, the value of goods and services, is an illusion that has been created by higher prices, ie. inflation.

May 21 2023

Interview: Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Posted May 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Rumble link Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin

May 21 2023

Interview: The Real Rate of Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted May 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

May 20 2023

The Gold Crash & Our Fate


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted May 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; Socrates is absolutely amazing. At the start of the year, you showed April as a key turning point in gold followed by May June. The weekly array projected this was the week for the Directional Change. There is nobody with a system like this, which brings to mind its forecasts for war. Ukrainians are out of their mind to go against the trend. They never even considered what if they lose. It seems like a fool’s bet. This not about just occupying the Donbas which has always been Russian. This is about destroying Russia. They should listen to Socrates to save their own country.

Thank you so much for bringing Socrates to the public rather than just institutions.

HR

ANSWER:  I know. These forecasts are not my personal opinion. When you put the entire world together, the trend becomes obvious. Just as I said Ukraine needs to lose to save the world, I also know that we will not all escape the end conclusion. Just as a Serb assassinated the Archduke in Sariavo which began World War I, this entire region is notorious for personal grudges and hatreds that draw in the entire world.

Schwab may have taken our forecast for 2032 and rephrased it as his Great Reset and is hoping to push the falling tree into his direction, that too will fail. But between here and 2032, we are entering a phase of chaos and havoc. I wish I could prevent it, but that is just our fate.

May 19 2023

Ukrainian Ancient Coin brings more than $5 million at Auction Today


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted May 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Balkck Sea Trade – Tauric Chersonesus, Panticapaeum.

This is probably the finest known Gold Stater (circa 350-300AD) of Panticapaeum, which was the most powerful city in the Tauric Chersonesus with deep involvement in the lucrative Black Sea grain trade for even back then, Ukraine was a major bread-basket in the ancient world as well. This coin is featuring the facing and bearded head of Pan, with the reverse of a Griffin standing left. The griffin type probably alludes to the mythical composite creatures who were believed to guard the gold found in the mountains of Scythia. The Greeks were wonderful storytellers with vivid imaginations.  Herodotus describes the griffins as neighbors to the Arimaspi, a northern people each possessing a single eye in the center of their foreheads, who made constant attempts to steal the gold (4.13.1). Pliny the Elder, who accepted the story at face value, expanded it to note that the griffins made their nests in burrows in the ground which contained gold nuggets and it was these that the Arimaspi tried to take while the griffins were merely defending their eggs and young (HN 7.2, 10.70).

The providence of this coin dates back to Ex F. Schlessinger XI, 1934, and it was sold as the Russian Hermitage duplicates part II, lot 102. It was then sold in the New York XXVII, sale of 2012, where it was featured on the cover. Previously privately purchased from Bank Leu in 1991 in Switzerland. This coin is extremely rare with only a handful known at best. It’s artistic design is considered to be unsurpassed. This is probably the finest known. It sold at auction back in 2012 for $325.000 + 20%

.

This coin just sold today in Zurich, Switzerland for 4,400,000 CHF + 20% Commission fee. In US dollars, that is $4,862,787 +20% = $5,834,400. This was about 1500% rise in just about 10 years. In all honesty, I have collected ancient coins since I was probably 12 years old. The field of ancient coins has expanded worldwide with major collectors from China to Russia. This coin was estimated at $1,250,000. The sale continues tomorrow with the Roman. I am truly shellshocked by the prices everything is selling for these days. As I have said, ancient coins are a worldwide market unlike particular national coins which fetch the highest prices in their home country.

May 17 2023

The 37 Year Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civilization Re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Well, Sports Illustrated just had to join the BudLight Woke Controversy. I suppose they could have put a Transgender on the cover. So it looks like they decided to stop short of that insanity and chose to put Martha Stewart who is 81 on the cover.

Elle McPhearson, known as the Body, really saw her modeling career take off after making the Sports Illustrated magazine’s annual Swimsuit Issue in 1986. She appeared on the cover a record five times: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, and 2006. Girls would line up with the hope of following Elle’s career desperately trying to make the cover of Sports Illustrated.

It is curious, but between the 1986 Cover of Elle & 2023 with Martha Stewart, it is shockingly precisely on time. And as for those who will speculate that Elle and I were somehow connected, her father was one of our Australian partners. No, I never dated Elle. The story that circulated in Tokyo was funny but completely exaggerated. Elle began a clothing line and sent me samples of her line of Men’s underway.  That was the extent of that and some were claiming why would she be sending me men’s underwear It was her clothing line. That was it. Not personal shopping for my birthday.

Interestingly, that is an important cycle interval and the fact it is impacting Sports Illustrated is very disturbing. Yes, it was my famous off-the-cuff forecast that Authentic would win the Kentucky Derby back in 2020. It was a long shot, so they said. But It was the third Derby win for the Jockey John Velazquez. Yet Authentic became the first horse to win Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 37 years.

It was October 1986 when an agreement was then reached to meet in Reykjavík, Iceland, between Gorbachev and President Reagan limiting nuclear weapons. This October will be 37 years. In January 1987, Gorbachev called for democratization: the infusion of democratic elements such as multi-candidate elections into the Soviet political process. A 1987 conference convened by Soviet economist Leonid Abalkin, a key adviser to Gorbachev, concluded: “Deep transformations in the management of the economy cannot be realized without corresponding changes in the political system.” We are more likely to see the end of that and a turn back to nationalism in Russia as a consequence of this war instigated by the Neocons. That will be in 2024.

This is not looking good at all.  The 5th 309.6-year cycle from the Fall of Rome in 476AD also comes due in 2024. I understand there are people who are trying to promote patriotism to retake the United States and return it to the days when agreements were honored and the Constitution stood for something. I appreciate those sentiments, but unfortunately, our computer says clearly that they will fail for without the PAIN, there is no REFORM = GAIN. Just as I have warned that these dark forces seeking to impose their totalitarian view of government will also fail. Neither side will prevail and we must simply CRASH & BURN and that is required if we are to recreate a new world post-2032.

Real Woman

This WOKENESS is simply part of the strategy to divide and conquer. Keep the people divided and they will not ban together against government. This entire Transgender insanity is very serious. There are only about 1.6 million people in the US who identify as Transgender. The US population is just under 335 million people. This is less than 0.5%. Yet, girls have been denied sports careers and mothers are no longer moths but birthing people. All because 1.6 million want to be called a woman so we can no longer define what is a woman. So those who give birth and reduce to just a birthing person. Again, all of this is to undermine our society and divide it so profoundly to ensure that we will never band together to restore the United States and the original intent of the Constitution.

Gorgeous Thai ladyboys, Pattaya, Thailand. 31.10.2020

In Thailand, the sex-change capital of the world, Ladyboys are very common. They do NOT call themselves “women” but refer to themselves as “ladyboys” and are everywhere. It is no big deal. If you meet a girl, you just ask if they are a ladyboy and they will simply reply yes or no. So why here in the USA do we have to change the definition of a “woman” to accommodate less than half of one percent? I don’t think calling my mother, hey birthing person of mine, has the same ring.

Just as former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg made clear, Roe v Wade was NEVER about women’s rights – it was about eugenics and reducing the population. This is ALSO behind this entire LGBQT movement to teach children even in 3 grade that they can choose to be LGBQT and push them to even change their gender. This is the same agenda as abortion – reduce the population.

Even more seriously, the climate change agenda. This is all about reducing our standard of living and there is no science behind this because they refuse to look beyond the mid-19th century so they can blame everything on the industrial revolution.

The only way for this Great Reset, which they have taken from our Economic Confidence Model predicting the collapse of our current monetary and political system come 2032, they are hoping to push us into a new age of totalitarianism. Civilization expands with warming periods, and it declines as we head into cold periods and darkness.

May 14 2023

Ground Reports – What is Your Experience With Prices of “Processed Goods” at Stores?


Posted originally on the CTH on May 13, 2023 | Sundance 

Recently I went to the supermarket to pick up some general provisions.  Given the nature of previously predicted food price increases, and proactive measures to mitigate the predictable prices, I haven’t needed to purchase basic foodstuffs in a while.   Yikes!  The prices… Wow.

Since we originally warned in ’21 about the waves of food price inflation that were coming, the prices have more than tripled on many food commodities.  That part is not as surprising in current review; however, the prices of processed foodstuffs is, well, quite frankly astounding.

I am left to wonder how working-class people are able to afford the jaw dropping price increases in highly processed food products like condiments (mayo, ketchup, mustard, etc), and even coffee and milk.  I knew the processing costs would drive those prices, but the scale is just astounding.

Beyond the foodstuff, what was truly stunning was the current price of non-food items at the store.  Items like chemical cleaners, soaps, aluminum foil, trash bags, Styrofoam products, ziploc bags, paper goods, etc.   I mean seriously, $8 for a box of trash bags, good grief.

After a review of the non-food item prices, I went back to the recent BLS report [DATA HERE] to look at the producer price index to see if the data reflected the scale of the processing cost that I was reviewing across a broad spectrum of goods.

Are consumers getting gouged by manufacturers who are taking advantage of the price shock inside the ongoing inflation?

Or are the processing costs, mostly driven by energy price increases, really that big a factor in the end product as it is generated?

In the topline final demand Producer Price Index [Table A above] you can see how we are cycling through the second wave of inflation that hit in the spring of 2022.  The rate of price increase is lower, but the prices are still rising.  That means the prior massive price increase is now baked into the product, and the current price will never decline. Instead, it will just increase at a slower rate than before.

However, that’s not the full story… and that is not the data I was most curious about.

The intermediate product costs are really where the story is found.

Table B [DATA HERE] Tells us a remarkable story.

Raw materials (unprocessed goods) are essentially in a deflationary status [-19.2% in April].  Meaning demand for the raw material has dropped well below the available supply.  However, look at how much of the deflationary price is consumed in the processing of the raw materials.

A full 16% is consumed by processing cost increases [energy, physical plant, transit, production costs etc]. That is remarkable.

A random example might be citric acid.  The price of the citrus base drops 19.2%, but the processing of the base into the intermediate good phase chews up 16% of the drop in raw material price and exits processing only 3.2% lower in price than a year prior.

Another example might be found in plastics.  The petroleum base, and/or a combination of each material additive, might be 19.2% lower than prior year, but processing negates the lower raw material price, and exits into intermediate essentially even -.04, and then toward the ending +2.3% final demand change in the rate of price increase.

The PPI data is essentially showing the flow of costs of production as reflected in the impact during processing.  We can assume mostly increases in energy, transport and distribution costs to bring the raw material forward to final good status.

Key takeaway, the demand side of the raw material is diminished.  There is less raw material demand.  However, processing costs are continuing to drive the final production price of goods that head into the hands of wholesalers who then bring the product to market.

The outcome of this are the prices of processed goods as noted in the products on the shelves.

QUESTION: Are you noticing rather remarkable price increases in non-food goods during your store visits?

May 14 2023

The 12 Caesars


Armstong Economics Blog/Hoards Re-Posted May 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

As far as the 12 Caesars are concerned, I am doing my best to assemble a few sets. These are not easy to put together. Nevertheless, I am giving it a shot to see what I can do that would be reasonably priced, under that $100k people ask on the market. I believe reasonably excellent VF/XF sets for around $50,000. But this is not something that quantity exists. This is very hard to assemble. I’m still trying to fill in some gaps. They will be presented in a nice wooden case.

May 5 2023

The California Contagion – PacWest Teters on Becoming the Next Regional Bank to Collapse as Regional Banking Stocks Continue Severe Drops


Posted originally on the CTH on May 4, 2023 | Sundance 

According to those who relish the Cloward-Piven strategy, things are proceeding swimmingly.

…”As long as the decisionmakers continue doing the things that are creating the crisis, the crisis will continue.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday the “U.S banking system is sound and resilient,” insert uncomfortable snicker here.  However, uncertainty is continuing to pummel the banking industry, despite assurances from the Fed, Treasury, FDIC financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon who are all saying there is no crisis in the banking industry.

If you want to know the big picture source of the uncertainty, it’s the great pretending.  The average person can sense something is wrong, and the person who pays attention has the experience of institutional lying over the past several years.  The last ten years of lying and pretending has created the biggest collapse in institutional trust in U.S. history.

Russians interfered with the election – trust us. Stick this needle in your arm, it’s safe – trust us.  The FBI are the good guys – trust us. Biden won more votes – trust us. This inflation is merely transitory – trust us.

See the problem?

So, when the same voices shout, “the banking industry is sound, trust us,” well,… yeah, that suspicious cat sense that’s on high alert isn’t buying the chorus.

Reasonably intelligent people who accept things as they are, not as they would have us pretend them to be, can see the core connection to the World Economic Forum, Central Banks, and western globalist policy to change the entire dynamic of economics and finance around the “Climate Change” agenda, or Build Back Better, or Green New Deal.

Overlay that commonsense and pragmatic outlook with the logical consequences of the activity, and this banking collapse issue is a self-fulfilling prophecy.  As long as the decision makers continue doing the things that are creating the crisis, the crisis will continue.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – Regional-bank stocks tumbled Thursday despite assurances from the Federal Reserve that the banking system is on solid footing.

PacWest Bancorp PACW -47.04%decrease; red down pointing triangle, which has been hit hard since the collapses of several banks, dropped by about 40%. The stock started falling in after-hours trading Wednesday evening, after a report that it was considering selling itself.

PacWest said in a statement after midnight Eastern Time Thursday that its core customer deposits were up since the end of the first quarter, and that it hadn’t experienced any unusual deposit flows since the collapse of First Republic.

[…] Investors have been wondering how much further the problems in regional-banking could spread, and whether they will spill over to the broader economy. Some analysts said the decline in PacWest and others reflected the market’s tendency to view news as categorically good or bad, rather than worries about PacWest specifically. Western Alliance, another bank whose stock has been hit hard, fell by about 35%.

[…] Regional banks, as major lenders to businesses and families across the U.S., also tend to fall when investors are expecting a recession. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped this week, and Brent crude hit a 52-week low on Wednesday.

[…] On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed said the U.S. banking system “is sound and resilient,” echoing language from its March statement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell added then that deposit flows at banks had eased and that this week’s seizure and sale of First Republic should further stabilize the industry.

[…] PacWest shares were recently trading around $3.70, putting them on track for their lowest close on record. The stock has now lost some 85% of its value since March 8, the day that SVB spooked bank investors by announcing a loss and a planned capital raise.

Many of PacWest’s customers are tied to technology startups—a tightknit clientele that pulled from high-balance accounts en masse at Silicon Valley Bank before it failed. (more)