Under The Radar: Mnuchin, Lighthizer and Kudlow Head To China – Korea, NAFTA and China Trade Deal all Merge…

There is a geopolitical strategy happening this week that is essentially under the radar.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, USTR Robert Lighthizer, Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow, and the U.S. trade team are heading to China.

The outcome of their discussions connects the initiatives behind North Korea, China and NAFTA.  The steel and aluminum tariffs are part of the toolbox.  Only one media personality, our favorite suspicious cat, appears to understand the larger economic play and how it is being deployed.

From the U.S. perspective, NAFTA has a fatal flaw. Mexico and Canada admitted the flaw for the first time a few weeks ago. The flaw is Mexico and Canada’s exploitation of NAFTA as a backdoor into the U.S. market for Asian, mostly Chinese, manufactured products. Multinational corporations who have invested Canada and Mexico are determined to retain the flaw.

President Trump understands that as long as Canada and Mexico can unilaterally make trade agreements with the EU and ASEAN nations, any NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico is moot. The NAFTA talks are paused.

The U.S. Team now heads to China. There’s no doubt part of the objective is to begin a structural discussion that must happen for the U.S. trade team to approach closing the fatal NAFTA flaw from the source of origin. [*note* on the EU side of this issue, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is leading a similar discussion. Mnuchin and Lighthizer are focused on Asia, Ross has responsibility for Europe]

The North Korean nuclear denuclearization agreement, and substantive peace treaty between North and South Korea, is part of the geopolitical trade negotiation with the U.S. (President Trump) and Beijing (Chairman Xi).

All three issues: •NAFTA, •China Trade Deal, and •North Korea all become part of the larger dynamic. These economic initiatives and Korean strategic peace initiatives are connected by President Trump’s unique use of economic leverage.

I have no idea how Team U.S.A. plans to frame a deal with China that simultaneously solves NAFTA (fatal flaw) and North Korea; however, there’s no doubt -due to the sequencing and timing- that this objective is well underway.

Here’s Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Listen carefully:


Part II:


What is an Assault Rife?

I spent two months shy of 4 years in the army from 1965 to 1969 first as enlisted and then as an officer. I had one partial tour in Nam where I was wounded and sent home to recover after 4 months in combat. I was qualified with most infantry weapons and used a CAR-15 (Colt Automatic Rifle-15) in Vietnam which was a short barrel version of the M16 riffle. The more modern version of that rifle line is the M4 and a civilian look alike is commonly referred to as the AR-15 Assault rifle. The civilian AR-15 cannot fire full auto even with a “bump stock” add on, it still requires a separate trigger pull for each round fired. In Vietnam on patrol I never fired my CAR-15 on full auto; it’s a waste of ammo in most cases. In the jungle often with no communications you didn’t waste your ammo.

The following is a quick summary of the various kinds of guns or weapons made as simple as possible. Manufacturers and others give brand names and descriptions to models they make and there are all kind of fancy add-on’s most, if not all, are meaningless to the actual function of the weapon; which is feed a round into the chamber and fire it with a trigger pull. Not considered here, are the various kinds of bullets but it must be kept in mind that the bullets are designed to kill, there is no such thing as a safe bullet.

But first I have a test for you, below are the images of two weapons, what is the main functional difference between them, assume they are civilian weapons?  At the end of this post I will give you the answer.

Forgetting muzzle loaders there are really only two kinds of guns (including; hand guns, rifles, machine guns and shot guns) the first and most common kind is where one trigger pull fires one round. The other kind is when a trigger is pulled, and held, the weapon will continue to fire until either the supply of bullets is gone or the trigger is released. Some of the different common names are: machine gun, revolver, semi-automatic, rifle, carbine, long riffle, shot gun and derringer that refer to the means of feeding a bullet into the weapon and the length of the barrel.

Bullets can be placed in one at a time as in a derringer, or 6 in a cylinder that can be placed in the revolver, or a small number from 3 to 8 or more in a feed tube under the barrel of a lever action rifle, or a pump action shot gun, or in a clip of 5 bullets that can be pushed into the opening under the bolt as in the old M-1 Garand rifle of WW II, or in a magazine that holds 5 to 30 bullets or more like a AR-15 or M4 or AK-47, or a belt of bullets held together by small metal clip of 100 or more bullets as in a M-60 machine gun.

The next consideration is how the bullets get into the position to be fired; which can be a rotating cylinder, a hand operated bolt, a pump action, a lever action, a mechanism related to the energy contained in the detonated charge in the bullet that will directly or indirectly cause the bolt to move back into a position where the next bullet can be feed in (commonly referred to as a semi-automatic).

For all practical purposes, from a functional point of view, there are only 4 kinds of guns or weapons:


Civilian Weapons (some also used by the military):

1 Semi-automatic single pull and release trigger with a short barrel

2 Semi-automatic single pull and release trigger with a long barrel

Military Weapons: 

3 Full-automatic and single pull and hold trigger with a short barrel

4 Full-automatic and single pull and hold trigger with a long barrel


The problem that the people that don’t like the 2nd Amendment, and want to ban guns, have is that there is no way to actually ban “assault” rifles as it does not appear as a type of weapon: it’s a look, not a kind of weapon. It would be like trying banning Kleenex tissue. The closest actual type would be a scout rifle or a carbine which are short barreled rifles. Legislation that these people try to write, as to what constitutes an assault rifle, end up having a great many pages of descriptions as they try and describe something that does not actually exist.

The answer to the quiz is the biggest functional difference between those two weapons is the length of the barrel.

President Trump Notes Changes Needed To White House Correspondents Dinner…

A few minutes ago President Trump tweeted his disappointment at the White House Correspondents Dinner, and speculates that changes might be needed; or potentially to just eliminate it:

Facing strong public criticism throughout the day about the performers’ poor taste in humor, ridicule, belittling and generally inappropriate comments about White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the WHCA released a statement:

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders did not respond to the comedian who was hired by the White House Correspondents Association to belittle her in public.

Mrs. Sanders took the high road.


The Transparent Positioning of Brennan, Clapper and Comey…

Just a quick note on the current tone and confrontational content coming from former FBI Director James Comey, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and former CIA Director John Brennan.

There is a great deal of discussion about the combative and hate-riddled language coming from Comey, Clapper and particularly Brennan.  Be aware their combative posture as an actual risk avoidance strategy.

Each of the three heavily corrupt officials engaged in the most substantive abuse of their intelligence positions for political purposes.  Each of them weaponized their offices against their political opposition.  The scope and severity therein is a story yet to surface; and unlike prior examples of weaponizing the DOJ and IRS, there is no administration in place to protect them from investigative sunlight.

Therefore the Comey, Clapper and Brennan defense strategy is to position themselves politically and lean on their like-minded media allies for support.  Their adversarial posture is intended to draw the Trump administration into political combat, thereby  diminishing any investigative outcomes behind a false shield of political prosecution.

In short this crew needs to frame any element of accountability -based on their prior behavior- as simple political retribution.  According to their playbook, the more aggressive, nasty, hate-filled and oppositional they are in their public displays; the greater likelihood they can call any indictments political retaliation.  This is a historic approach.

In order for the approach to work, the public must be very well aware of their collective antagonisms and attacks against the current administration.  This is why their media allies emphasize each occurrence so much.

If the larger American public see the Comey, Clapper and Brennan attacks as commonplace, the more likely a larger segment of that same public will see any corresponding DOJ legal proceeding as retaliation for those attacks.

Once this defense strategy is deployed, do not expect to see it diminish.  Quite the contrary; the strategy is contingent upon ever-increasing and more outlandish attacks.

Historically this approach has a proven track record of success amid Democrats because the media (writ large) generally aligns with it.  [See Bob Menendez for a recent example]


Russia’s Wheat Crop Fails?

The weather turned very cold this year as our computer has been forecasting. The importance of our model’s forecasts lies in determining what will be the next cycle focus. Each cycle tends to shift from one to the next sector. While we still risk a strong dollar rally into 2020 creating the economic recession through deflation as assets decline, the next 8.6-year cycle appears to be setting up to be a commodity cycle. As the climate changes to bitter cold, we have warned this is when FAMINE and DISEASE rise. The flu season is always when it turns cold – not warm.

It is important to keep an eye on the climate cycle and prepare for the next real bull market. This year, the wheat crop in Russia has failed because of the bitter cold with even April coming in as the coldest in more than 140 years. The people who want to believe in global warming are so enamored with this idea mixing up pollution with climate change that they fail to see the trend coming. As crops fail with colder winters, food supplies will decline and prices will rise. So look for the next 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model Wave to bring higher prices in food

The Crisis in Analysis – Is it Just Hopeless?

A new study has come out taking issue with the entire climate change forecasts putting forth that it is at best 45% as intense as the prognostications put forth. The greatest flaw is just how poor these people do their research. They are TOTALLY ignorant of any cyclical trend and project that if the temperature rises 1 degree this year, then they project that will continue without change for decades. Honestly, they do the same in just about every field with the same results. Economists assume they cannot predict the business cycle so why bother. Projections for growth into the next year are always based upon the trend this year.

 As that famous interview of Larry Summers by Bloomberg reveals, Summers was asked why you “smart” people can never predict a recession? It is the methodology that makes all of these forecasts worthless. The one thing we can count on is that whatever trend is in motion this year, by no means guarantees we will see the same next year.

Just how do we ever get all of these fields to stop and consider cycles is beyond comprehension. When you forecast the future trend correctly, they accuse you of causing the trend because of influence. It often seems hopeless to ever get a change in how analysis is conducted. It will just take a crash and burn before anything changes.

Summer states the very theory why the NY banks accused me of manipulating the world. The assumption is you cannot, and if you do manage to do it, then it is attributed to influence. You just cannot win.

Greece & the Debt Crisis

The entire EU Crisis began precisely on schedule on the Political Pi Turning point from the major high in 2007. Precisely on the day of the ECM turning point, April 16, 2010 (2010.29) Greece notified the IMF it was on the verge of bankruptcy. By April 22nd, the Euro fell to near year-low levels amid concerns about Greece’s debt crisis. The IMF activated the loan facility and Greece received its first €45 billion on April 23rd, 2010. Then on May 9th, the IMF approved a bailout package for Greece with the largest loan and exceptional, fast-track access. Of course, that turning point of April 16th, 2010 was also the first time the SEC charged Goldman Sachs with outright FRAUD is selling its Mortgage Backed Securities.

Mother-MerkelIn dealing with Greece, the German head of state Chancellor Angela Merkel, had promised the German taxpayers that any loan to Greece they will be held to the fire and forced to repay. The polls were turning hard against Merkel as she was being bashed in the world press for Greece had forgiven Germany’s debt after World War II, but Merkel refused to provide any relief for Greece because of her campaign promise. The divert the press from here hardline policy on Greece, Merkel then summarily announced that she would take the refugees from Syria with open arms. That then began the European Refugee Crisis and Merkel then force the rest of Europe to share the burden she created unilaterally. The entire European Refugee Crisis was created by Merkel, and this has been at the center of the crisis which is tearing Europe apart at the seams. That came as the next ECM wave turned from its peak 2015.75.

Now as we approach the next political Pi Turning Point due on November 21st, 2018, which will be 8.6 years from when the Greek debt crisis began, the EU Commission has demanded from the Eurozone states that debt relief should be provided to Greece. “We need to find a mechanism that will ease the debt burden that is on the Greek people today,” EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said Friday at a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers in Sofia. The creditors would have to show “solidarity with Greece” in order to secure the recovery of the long-term crisis country.

The Greek government creditors addressed by Moscovici are the taxpayers from those Eurozone states that had granted loans to the country in recent years – especially German taxpayers. With these loans, the Greek government paid the debts that it had with major international banks. All the loans in Christendom to Greece will not solve the debt crisis. The design of the Euro was seriously flawed. They implemented only a single currency and left all member states with their national debts instead of consolidating them. Then the Euro rose from 80 cents to $1.60 and suddenly Southern Europe saw their national debts double in real value. It was no different from borrowing to buy a home in Swiss franc to save interest and watching the Swiss double in value and now you owed twice as much on your home. Debt relief of 50% is needed on the entire national debt – not just the loans since 2010.

Fully Automatic Assault Van!

Published on Apr 26, 2018

A man in Toronto drives a van into a crowd of people, killing 10. No one calls for banning vans. So why does the left call to ban guns when we all know its people who are the problem?

Lindsey Graham Discusses North Korea, Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize and James Comey…

There are those times when Senator Lindsey Graham carefully weighs the politics of the moment and seems to align with the policies of President Trump and the MAGA movement.  This is one of those times.

The tender senator hits the quadruple-lindy… Agreeing with President Trump on: North Korea, Iran, China and FBI Director James Comey’s insufferable nonsense.  As winged pigs seemingly aviate in our blind spot, here’s a full 17 minutes of the tender senator praising President Donald J Trump:

Sunday Talks: Maria Bartiromo Interviews James Kallstrom…

You can call it a soft-coup, or you can call it politicization of the DOJ and FBI, but the end result is the same – the intentional effort to manipulate, influence, and ultimately subvert an election for the presidency of the United States.

A disgusted former FBI Deputy Director, James Kallstrom, appears on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the nonsense and James Comey’s insufferable conduct. Mr. Kallstrom also discusses the bigger picture and the corruption within the intelligence apparatus.