Category Barach Obama A Clear and Present Danger

Feb 22 2023

Chairman Xi Plans Moscow Visit, Putin Suspends START Treaty, Maersk Exits Russia, Biden Talks Moldova, Planets Aligning for War


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance 

First things first, history may not always repeat, but it always rhymes.  Secondly, history tells us that only two things have ever pulled what we now call “western nations” out of a collective economic depression; (1) war, and (2) housing starts.

If you accept the WEF climate control agenda of a ‘managed transition‘, where economies are reduced in size to match lowered energy production, as generally speaking akin to a western economic depression.… then, you begin to ask the logical question.  How do the managers avoid the consequences?

If global (non BRICS) economic contraction is akin to a western economic depression, I would argue the consequences are identical.  Then, when major economies are in a state of shrinking and the citizens are feeling the horrible effects, something large is needed to change the economic equation.

With central banks raising interest rates to achieve the policy supporting contraction, the option for ‘housing starts’ to change the dynamic is removed.  That leaves, ‘war’.

President Putin and Chairman Xi are not stupid men.  They are big picture strategists.

♦DATA POINT – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to suspend his country’s involvement in the last remaining arms control treaty with the U.S. came as a disturbing surprise to multiple former officials who negotiated the pact and nonproliferation experts committed to ending the expansion of nuclear forces. (read more)

Can you blame him?  The Western Alliance has already blamed Putin for the global food crisis they created by the World Economic Forum energy policy shift.  The Western Alliance accepts no responsibility for advancing hostility -through NATO expansion- on to Russia’s doorstep.  The Western Alliance has attempted to sanction Russia out of the global economy.  With the same Western Alliance now positioning for war, why would Putin adhere to their limitations?

♦DATA POINT – Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the plan. (read more)

Can you blame them?  Pay no attention to the Reuters narrative woven inside the article about China wanting to negotiate peace.  To accept that narrative is to believe there is no dragon behind the panda mask.  We are too far into the geopolitical awakening to say the dragon doesn’t exist and simultaneously hold its own interests (belt & road, and/or Taiwan) within the context. Ignoring the dragon behind the mask is really quite silly.  BRICS exists as an economic alliance of like-minded nations for exactly this geopolitical dynamic.

♦DATA POINT – Shipping and logistics group A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) has agreed to sell its two logistics sites in Russia to IG Finance Development Limited, it said on Monday, nearly marking the end of its business activities in the country. […] After that, Maersk will not have any business in Russia. (read more)

The major multinationals always position themselves to avoid the consequences of war.  Additionally, Moller-Maersk is already going to feel a major financial impact from the shrinking of the Western economies they generally service with their cargo transportation.  Smaller economies = less cargo = less ships = less revenue.  Moller-Maersk has to pick a side; they are aligned with the Western Alliance.  Hence their exit from Russia.  China/India will eventually fill the void. Again, BRICS.

These are data points just in the last 12 hours.  In addition to these data points from today, the saber rattling from the DC foreign policy and war machine financial system is on display in the Biden policy as transmitted from Warsaw. Again, just today.

Like us, I’m pretty sure from watching his statements and eventual policies over the past several years, President Donald Trump views foreign policy through the prism of economics.   If “economic security is national security,” then what is it when economic insecurity is an intentional design policy?

All of the economic data points have aligned toward direct military conflict between the Western Alliance and Russia that expands beyond the proxy war in Ukraine.

If the path is continued, this process eventually ends up with World War III.  Which, not coincidentally, boils down to the Western Economic Alliance -vs- BRICS, with a few remaining neutral and the middle east as the unknown variable.

Sound familiar?

Look below, you might find a familiar visual reference:

Yep, history rhymes.

Any questions? 

Feb 22 2023

West’s Duplicity – Biden’s Surprise Visit Before Putin’s Speech


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine one day ahead of Putin’s National Address scheduled for February 21st. Biden had the audacity to put out the West’s constant propaganda:

“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” he declared. “The Americans stand with you and the world stands with you.”

Putin is elected the head of Russia by its Parliament the same system that takes place in Britain, the EU, Canada, and every country with a Parliamentary system. Only the United States is where the head of state stands for election by the people. This nonsense that Ukraine stands for democracy against Russia is just total outright lies. This only demonstrates that we cannot trust a single word from governments in such times. As they say, truth is the first casualty in war.

Had the West simply been honest and honored what they negotiated that the Donbas under the Minsk Agreement was to be allowed to vote on their own separatist movement. All the deaths in Ukraine and their blood are on the hands of the West. This war would have NEVER taken place if the Minsk Agreement was honored.

Blinken has made it clear that the US will NEVER accept the Minsk Agreement and it was indeed only to buy time for a war they wanted from the start. The Biden Administration changed the arrangement with Ukraine in 2021 altering all previous agreements since 2008. This is a Neocon’s dream come true – a direct confrontation with Russia. He outright said that there shall be no peace by returning any land to allow the Russians of the Donbas to live in peace free of Ukrainian domination.

“If we do that, we will open a Pandora’s box around the world, and every would-be aggressor will conclude that, ‘If Russia got away with it, we can get away with it,’” Blinken said. “And that’s not in anyone’s interest, because it’s a recipe for a world of conflict.”

This illustrates the duplicity of the West and the desire for World War III. These are the people who are cheering the destruction of our future all for a strip of land that has been occupied by Russians for centuries.

Even China has come out and bluntly stated: “We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe.” The US refuses to seek peace on any reasonable terms whatsoever. The arrogance of the United States is just astounding. They have told China not to aid Russia. As Fox News reported, China is furious after the US warns against arming Russia: “The US is in no position to tell China what to do.”

In all my years of dealing with governments, NEVER have I ever even once witnessed such stupidity and arrogance on the part of any government. This Biden Administration seems to be going out of its way to piss off just about everyone in the world to create World War III. This is just unimaginable. They seem to want to “shrink” the world’s population by 50% with war to get their pat on the back from Gates, Rockefeller Foundation, and Schwab. When you say it is your way or no way, that is not how you negotiate anything.

History will remember the Biden Administration with contempt as the Hitler or Napoleon of the 21st Century.

Feb 22 2023

Joe Biden Sees Ukraine Flags Flying from Homes All Over Small Town America


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance 

Perhaps he believes this, but if it is true, I have not been able to locate any evidence.

During his speech in Poland Tuesday, Joe Biden said he sees Ukraine flags flying on American homes “all across – big cities and small towns.”

…”And the American people are united in our resolve as well. All across my country, in big cities and small towns, Ukrainian flags fly from American homes.  Over the past year, Democrats and Republicans in our United States Congress have come together to stand for freedom.  That’s who Americans are, and that’s what Americans do.”…

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Feb 22 2023

Start Worrying – Biden Says ‘The US and West Was Not Plotting to Attack Russia’


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance

Speaking today in Poland, amid carefully managed stage theatrics, lighting and dramatic entrance for emphasis, Joe Biden said:

…”I speak once more to the people of Russia.  The United States and the nations of Europe do not seek to control or destroy Russia.  The West was not planning to attack Russia as Putin said today, and millions of Russian citizens who only want to live in peace with their neighbors are not the enemy”…

Given the reality that every foreign policy statement from the people around Joe Biden carries the exact opposite in both intent and outcome, we should now prepare for the Biden administration, CIA and U.S. State Department to begin open offensive military action directly targeting Russia.  Yes, this statement means it is time to start worrying.

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Feb 21 2023

Kevin McCarthy Gives Access to Over 41,000 Hours of J6 Capitol Hill CCTV Video to Tucker Carlson Team


Posted originally on the Conservative tree house on February 20, 2023 | Sundance 

According to Axios, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has given Fox News (Paul Ryan) and Tucker Carlson access to the 41,000 hours of CCTV footage.

Presumably Speaker McCarthy figures this approach will support his previous promise to release and “make public” the full unedited House footage.  I’m not sure I would qualify this as fulfilling the pledge.  Why is an intermediary needed?  Why not just release the footage and let people review it raw and unfiltered?

Via Axios – House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has given Fox News’ Tucker Carlson exclusive access to 41,000 hours of Capitol surveillance footage from the Jan. 6 riot, McCarthy sources tell me.

  • Carlson TV producers were on Capitol Hill last week to begin digging through the trove, which includes multiple camera angles from all over Capitol grounds. Excerpts will begin airing in the coming weeks.

Why it matters: Carlson has repeatedly questioned official accounts of 1/6, downplaying the insurrection as “vandalism.”

  • Now his shows — “Tucker Carlson Tonight” on Fox News, and “Tucker Carlson Today” and “Tucker Carlson Originals” on the streaming service Fox Nation — have a massive trove of raw material.

Carlson told me: “[T]here was never any legitimate reason for this footage to remain secret.”

  • “If there was ever a question that’s in the public’s interest to know, it’s what actually happened on January 6. By definition, this video will reveal it. It’s impossible for me to understand why any honest person would be bothered by that.” (link)

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There could be an entirely appropriate reason for doing it this way, but that has not yet been explained.

Feb 21 2023

Annnnd, ACTION! – Traveling by Train Joe Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Kyiv, Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 20, 2023 | Sundance

The theatre and pantomime of Ukraine, as orchestrated by the White House & State Dept. and summed up in the phrase “World War Reddit,” continues.  I will admit, the air raid sirens were a nice touch.

Joe Biden made a surprise trip into Kyiv, where the word “surprise” is intended to fall upon the eyes and ears of the American public, not the Ukrainian government or the Russians who were given advanced notice that Joe Biden was traveling to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy.

The White House admits in their on-the-record briefing {Read Here} that Russia was informed of the trip prior to Biden’s departure from Washington DC. So, the New York Times framing of the transportation aspect, “after a trans-Atlantic flight to Poland, Mr. Biden crossed the border by train, traveling for nearly 10 hours to Kyiv, as other American officials have in recent months,” was clearly done as part of the theatre around the visit.

Additionally, as every media article about the visit includes (for additional “color” of the performance) air raid sirens were sounded as Joe Biden and President Zelenskyy stepped out into the streets.  From the screenplay as written. I suggest reading in your best Richard Attenborough dramatic voice:

“Mr. Biden arrived early Monday morning to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the two stepped out into the streets of Kyiv even as an air-raid siren sounded, a dramatic moment that underscored the investment the United States has made in Ukraine’s independence.“

[…] “Mr. Biden joined Mr. Zelensky for a visit to St. Michael’s monastery in downtown Kyiv, where the sun glittered off the golden domes as the air-raid alarm wailed. Trailing two soldiers bearing a wreath, the two leaders walked along the Wall of Remembrance, with portraits of more than 4,500 soldiers who have died since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and first fomented a rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

The air-raid alarm had stopped by the time Mr. Biden got back into his motorcade and departed the monastery. The alarms sound almost daily in Kyiv, but the blare of the siren added to the bristling tension of the moment. (read more)

Everything, and I do mean e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g, about the Russia-Ukraine war narrative, via western media, is a scripted performance using the best deployed messaging and narrative engineering systems as created by Hollywood and corp media.  No western nation can generate propaganda as well as the United States.

White House Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Daleep Singh, told everyone in February 2022 what the strategic policy of the Biden administration was toward Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict beginning.  Few were paying attention:

…”Ultimately, the goal of our sanctions is to make this a strategic failure for Russia; and let’s define a little bit of what that means. Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done.  In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.” (LINK)

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability.  Everything that has followed that February 24, 2022, announcement has been a strategic construct for public consumption.  This is why I called the conflict “World War Reddit.”  As a result, one year later we see the theatrics of the conflict story once again being performed by the White House.

Very few people will recognize this.  Fewer still even paid attention to the statements that preceded the theatrics.

World War Reddit continues….

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Feb 20 2023

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Admits Goal is to Shrink Economy to Meet Decreased Energy Supplies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

Prior to this interview, the Fed was being too-cute-by-half as they talked about targeting the ‘demand side’ through increased rates.  The demand they were targeting is the energy demand, but people (mostly in the financial and business world) were not willing to accept that Federal Reserve monetary policy would intentionally try to shrink the economy.

When overall energy price increases are driving upward of 60%, it is going to take a major amount of economic contraction to drop energy demand to meet the diminished energy supply.  CTH has been warning about this ultimate objective for over two years.  It’s a simple economic situation.

+60% price on the supply side, with a goal of +2% on the downstream demand side, equals a major amount of activity needing to be removed. Essentially energy use needs to drop by half.

You can put everyone in an electric car and still not even come close to dropping energy demand 50%.  You cannot “energy efficient” your way to a 50% drop in demand; there just isn’t enough waste in the system, especially when people are already paying close attention to energy use because it costs so much.

This “transition to the new green economy” is a whole of society shift.

This “transition to the new green economy”, is a multi-generational shift.

The transition includes putting people in smaller houses, stopping their travel, stopping their purchasing of new goods, taking down entire industries and limiting human activity on a massive scale.

Something akin to the COVID-19 lockdown period would be needed, only this level of diminished economic activity would be permanent.

It makes you wonder if the COVID-19 lockdown was the test to see how much energy use would drop if everyone was stopped in place.  And yes, during the COVID lockdowns, human activity did stop, economic activity did stop, and energy use did drop by the nearly amount we are talking about.

When you accept what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is openly admitting in that interview segment, particularly as he is asked about the massive supply side costs and how that overlays, then you realize how prescient the image is below.

This image is the exact future you see flowing from the “radical transformation,” or what is also called “managing the transition“…

At the end of the transition, you have two social societies.   One social system is a massive assembly of human activity all in close proximity. The alternative social system consists of those who do not wish to be jammed into Build Back Better cities yet forced to sustain themselves because the energy production and delivery resources in the larger geography have been stopped.

Now you know why I asked the question, “where would you live” over a decade ago.

Feb 13 2023

The Coming War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:

Hi Marty,

As it appears the US is marching toward war, what is notable this time, unlike what happened in the run-up to US participation in WW2, was the sense of isolationism in this country. Roosevelt was clearly walking a fine line, knowing there was no stomach for US involvement in Europe. US involvement in WW1 also started out similarly with many in the US, in particular those of Irish descent who opposed helping the British in their battle in Europe. Wilson, another Democrat, also walked the straight and narrow, professing neutrality which history shows was a lie. Later, his 14 points, the forerunner to an imposed peace on Germany, would backfire. The League of Nations would die off.

But today, unlike the prior two world wars, both democrats and republicans appear to embrace an escalation in conflict. And with an old, decrepit mannequin in the WH, it looks like there’s nothing stopping this push toward war. Republicans especially are a total disgrace. They stabbed Trump in the back repeatedly or let him twist in the wind for 4 years and for the first two when they were the majority party…did little to show their one chance to lead. Trump did more for peace than any president since Kennedy. Trump at least tried to engage Xie, met with the North Korean leader and focused more on building up the US domestic economy. He tore up US participation in these climate pacts. He focused on building the wall to stem the flow of illegals crossing the border. Her met with the Mexican president and forced his counterpart to accept an arrangement that kept illegals inside Mexico pending and petitions later to the US government for entry based on their applications.  And for all this, he was the target for a fraud based on collusion to get elected with Russian help. Which turned out to be baseless. Later, he was implicated in the Jan 6 insurrection…courtesy of both parties. Which itself was a total fabrication.

Both Dems and R’s are now marching lockstep toward war. It’s no wonder public opinion toward the government is sinking to all-time lows. In both parties. Both of which will be swept away in the years ahead for betraying this country on so many levels.

MS

REPLY: Hillary, started this whole mess by launching the fake dossier and blaming Putin for interring in the election. She managed to convince 70% of Democrats that Russia was the enemy. RussiaGate, despite being discredited, set in motion this hatred for Russia. Still, 65% of Americans support Ukraine when in fact what they are doing is relying on a border drawn by Kruschev for administrative purposes and demanding that the Donbas is their territory when NEVER for even a single day have Ukrainian people ever been the majority in that region. This is a land grab and nothing more that is engulfing the entire world all because our idiot politicians want to destroy the world economy so they can blame it on war and default on all the debt.

I get hate mail and death threats from Ukrainian Nazis pretty regularly now. This only shows that we are historically on the wrong side. In WWII, we fought against the Nazo movement. This time, we support ethnic cleansing.

Americans fled here to escape the political chaos and warmongering in Europe. So when WWI and WWII took place, the American people saw no reason to go support a political movement that they had fled. Indeed, FDR’ solemn campaign promise was no boys would be sent to fight in a foreign war. That is why he did everything possible to get Japan to attack Pearl Harbor for that was the ONLY way to overcome the anti-war position of Americans. They have done the same to get Russia to act to protect the Donbas from the Ukrainians who began the civil war.

FDR repeated that solemn promise in Boston which was predominantly Irish. They refused to defend Britain openly recalling what the English did to the Irish. That was why FDR needed Japan to attack Pearl Harbor. Today, they needed Russia to launch its special operation which was absolutely legal under the United Nations Rules for he was protecting the Donbas, not seeking to conquer Ukraine.

All of those memories of past wars are long gone. Today, we cheer on war because we think it will be like watching Iraq on CNN after nightly dinner. As they say: