Republican Tax Reform – What About the Deficit?


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The Associated Press ran a story reporting: “Congressional Republicans are planning a massive overhaul of the nation’s tax system, a heavy political lift that could ultimately affect families at every income level and businesses of every size.” The interesting aspect is that the headline reads:

GOP: Cut taxes, change brackets; but what about deficits

There is zero discussion about constantly borrowing year after year. The presumption here is that governments can borrow all the time and someone will buy, even if negative, and the world will keep on going. They assume that this is OK and that deficits are all right as long as we fund them.

Absent from all of this basic assumption is the reality of history — whenever a government borrows, they ALWAYS default.

Most people are living in the past. Prior to 1971, the US government borrowed money but it did not create new money, as it could not be used for collateral to borrow against. In the 1960s, if you bought an E-bond, you could not go to the bank to borrow against it. You had to cash it out. Post-1971, you could buy T-Bills and use them as collateral to fund your trading. Debt has become money that pays interest.

The bulk of the “real” money supply is created through the velocity of money and borrowing. When a bank lends money, it is creating electronic money without printing. If you borrow $1,000 and they lend it to you by using $1,000 from someone else, then two people have accounts that say they each have $1,000 but the actual money created by government was still just $1,000.

Consequently, during the early days of the Roman Republic, public taxes consisted of modest assessments on property, which were primarily tangible assets that included slaves, land, homes, animals, personal items, and monetary wealth. The tax rate under normal circumstances was 1% and sometimes would rise as high as 3% during periods of war. Taxes could not be collected on personal income for there was a lack of a valid census.

Julius Caesar ordered the first real census that was conducted street by street. He knew there was much corruption with people on the welfare rolls who did not exist. Caesar ordered a census whereby the check each property and who was living where. The rolls were greatly reduced after knocking on every door to collect a census. About 80% of Rome was funded by taxes, and 20% of the annual budget, on average, was covered by new coinage. This did not produce 20% inflation.

Roman citizens were free from any direct taxation. Rome’s income came primarily from war indemnity, booty, mines, port duties, and rental of public lands. The provinces were subjected to tithes, which was one tenth of annual produce or earnings. In 187 BC, the Roman treasury refunded the taxes imposed during the Punic wars. Women were then declared tax-exempt in Rome. However, in just two years, by 169 BC, people had been avoiding taxes by putting property in their wife’s name. This led to legal reform when a man was not allowed to pass his property to a woman beyond 50% of his worth. After 167 BC, taxes were exempt if you lived in Rome itself. This contributed to Rome becoming the largest city in the world, which was not matched until London during the 19th century Victorian Era.

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After the capture of Syracuse in 211 BC in Sicily during the Second Punic War, Rome adapted the tax system created by King Hiero that imposed a tithe on the agricultural produce of most Greek cities on the island. The reforms of Diocletian had eliminated the special tax-free status enjoyed by Rome.

There is little doubt that Rome funded its deficits by owning the mining resources, thereby enabling the creation of money to cover its expenses on about 20% of the budget on average. As resource dwindled, debasement began, but not aggressively until the Emperor Valerian was captured and enslaved by the Persians. That was a fundamental shock to the confidence of Rome and the people began to hoard significantly. This is also when Christianity took off for as people prayed to their gods. When no relief from barbarians took place, they turned in greater numbers to Christianity. The greatest period of Christian persecutions was during the 3rd century AD. It was the collapse in confidence that created the collapse in the monetary system.

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We are playing with fire if we think the deficits must be covered by borrowing more and more money that pays interest. It is time we review history closely. Stop the borrowing and monetize the deficit rather than pay interest and engage in quantitative easing that never makes it down to the people anyway. Up to 70% of the national debt has been accumulative interest which NEVER helped anyone but bondholders of which 50% have been non-Americans.

Government forces Social Security to be invested only in government debt, despite the acknowledgement that the rich get richer ONLY by investing, which government prohibits the average person from doing. Then we borrow their money and pay no interest, yet pretend to be magnanimous by handing them a refund check as if we were Santa Claus.

91 Year Old Woman Court Sides With Bank – Her Cash Saving Illegal


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A 91 year old woman in Kristianstad tried to simply deposit her 108,000  SEK (approx. 12000 USD), which was her life savings. The bank refused to accept the notes, because the woman could not explain where they came from. The woman saved the first money in the drawer, because she did not trust banks. Then in a safety deposit box. Saving money and then trying to deposit it in a bank is rapidly becoming a crime as we move deeper into the age of authoritarian government because socialism is collapsing and government are desperate for money.

Because the woman had no proof of where they came from, the bank refused to receive notes with reference to the Riksbank’s regulations. The woman appealed to the Administrative Court explaining that she was not a criminal and not present a criminal record. She has lived efficient and economical, and now wanted to splurge a little during his last years of life. The regulations that are depriving this woman of her life savings according to the Riksbank requires a person not to have been convicted of a crime for redemption of banknotes previously. The Administrative Court allowed no other conclusion than the Riksbank and reject the appeal.

The government stole the life savings of a 91 year-old woman who wanted to splurge before she died. Welcome to the reality of socialism. If you really think socialist care about people, go to Venezuela.

The Share Market & the Future


Curiousity-Question

QUESTION: As a small retail investor, what would Marty suggest to invest in if in fact we break the 23000 level on the DOW and we do in fact get the phase transition that he is talking about?  Furthermore, what would he use to profit from it?  Shares in particular stocks, futures contracts or options in the DOW index?  Lastly, if this phase transition does happen, what is the longest time frame that it would last, 12 to 18 months?

Thank Marty for all that he has done for us little guys.  He has really opened my eyes to what is going on in this world.

J

ANSWER: In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.

The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence. What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.

These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic.

A Loser’s Malice: What’s Behind Obama’s Attacks on Putin


When your domestic policies are in total disarray and the voters have denounced your policies in the last election blame someone else like Putin, what else can you do when the voters don’t like what you have done.

The Real Crisis Trump Will Face With Trade


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The entire problem with trade and jobs has been its focus on only the job and not the consumer. David Ricardo developed his principle that nations should pursue their own competitive advantages. In other words, just because I might want to be a brain surgeon does not mean that (1) I might be very good at it, and (2) that I am entitled to state protectionism to prevent others coming into the field who could expose me as second-rate.

When the collapse of socialism is in motion, people demand state benefits and assume they can just legally take. Governments have been in serious trouble and are raising taxes to try to make ends meet, but at the same time, their economies are moving into sharp declines. The greater the instability in Europe and Asia, not to mention emerging markets, the stronger the dollar becomes.

282-total-us-bal-of-trade

348-b-us-bal-trade-usTrade has always been misunderstood for the two primary elements are jobs and currency. If you do not comprehend both elements, then you cannot properly manage trade. It is always a great topic to expose for votes during elections, but quite honestly, there is nothing any politician has ever been able to accomplish but confusion and chaos. The entire protectionism of the Great Depression was set off by (1) economic implosion in Europe reduced sales to Europe, and (2) the rise in the dollar reduced the competitiveness of US goods and lessened the cost of imports. The US entered a trade deficit with the rest of America because of the strong dollar.

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The dollar soared in value as European countries began to default on their sovereign debts. Trump will face the same crisis once again. One solution will be to index tariffs to the dollar. Thus, a 10% tariff across the board would be plausible on the trade issue. However, the danger of protectionism will emerge if you pick and choose between products and fail to understand the link to the currency.

The left socialists are out in force to say Trump’s 10% on time tax on foreign held money by U.S. corporations will do nothing for the economy. EBay was looking to take over two companies to expand domestically. They had to decline because the expansion meant they would have to bring cash in from overseas and the added tax would make the deal unattractive. Yes, some companies will bring back cash and pay out dividends and buy back their own shares. Trump should also eliminate the dividend tax; thus the money would go to shareholders who would pay their one-time tax on income. This will be a far better stimulus plan than the Fed handing money to bankers in hopes that they will lend it out, which never happens. Small businesses are turned down by the bankers for more than 80% of all loans. The banks do not invest in innovation that is the mother of jobs.

think-out-of-boxTrump should impose a 10% tariff on everything, and then index it to the US dollar index. That will avoid a protectionism crisis and deal with the largest influence being the currency. The entire reason why Germany wanted the euro was to eliminate currency risk for German companies so they would not need to worry about currency swings.

We have to start thinking out of the box. What politicians have been doing for decades is always listen to only academics who never think out the box as a rule.

Is 100% Of “US Warming” Due To NOAA Data Tampering?


Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tony Heller via RealClimateScience.com,

Climate Central just ran this piece, which the Washington Post picked up on. They claimed the US was “overwhelmingly hot” in 2016, and temperatures have risen 1,5°F since the 19th century.

The U.S. Has Been Overwhelmingly Hot This Year | Climate Central

The first problem with their analysis is that the US had very little hot weather in 2016. The percentage of hot days was below average, and ranked 80th since 1895. Only 4.4% of days were over 95°F, compared with the long term average of 4.9%. Climate Central is conflating mild temperatures with hot ones.

They also claim US temperatures rose 1.5°F since the 19th century, which is what NOAA shows.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

The problem with the NOAA graph is that it is fake data. NOAA creates the warming trend by altering the data. The NOAA raw data shows no warming over the past century

The adjustments being made are almost exactly 1.5°F, which is the claimed warming in the article.

The adjustments correlate almost perfectly with atmospheric CO2. NOAA is adjusting the data to match global warming theory. This is known as PBEM (Policy Based Evidence Making.)

The hockey stick of adjustments since 1970 is due almost entirely to NOAA fabricating missing station data. In 2016, more than 42% of their monthly station data was missing, so they simply made it up. This is easy to identify because they mark fabricated temperatures with an “E” in their database.

When presented with my claims of fraud, NOAA typically tries to arm wave it away with these two complaints.

  1. They use gridded data and I am using un-gridded data.
  2. They “have to” adjust the data because of Time Of Observation Bias and station moves.

Both claims are easily debunked. The only effect that gridding has is to lower temperatures slightly. The trend of gridded data is almost identical to the trend of un-gridded data.

Time of Observation Bias (TOBS) is a real problem, but is very small. TOBS is based on the idea that if you reset a min/max thermometer too close to the afternoon maximum, you will double count warm temperatures (and vice-versa if thermometer is reset in the morning.) Their claim is that during the hot 1930’s most stations reset their thermometers in the afternoon.

This is easy to test by using only the stations which did not reset their thermometers in the afternoon during the 1930’s. The pattern is almost identical to that of all stations. No warming over the past century. Note that the graph below tends to show too much warming due to morning TOBS.

NOAA’s own documents show that the TOBS adjustment is small (0.3°F) and goes flat after 1990.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ushcn/ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_pg.gif

Gavin Schmidt at NASA explains very clearly why the US temperature record does not need to be adjusted.

 You could throw out 50 percent of the station data or more, and you’d get basically the same answers.

One recent innovation is the set up of a climate reference network alongside the current stations so that they can look for potentially serious issues at the large scale – and they haven’t found any yet.

NASA – NASA Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record

NOAA has always known that the US is not warming.

U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend – NYTimes.com

All of the claims in the Climate Central article are bogus. The US is not warming and 2016 was not a hot year in the US. It was a very mild year.

Understanding Obama/Kerry’s Recent Approach Toward Israel and the Palestinians…


There are numerous reports where the current events surrounding President Obama’s push to paint Israel into a corner are specifically outlined and addressed with specificity.  However, if you…

Source: Understanding Obama/Kerry’s Recent Approach Toward Israel and the Palestinians…

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Confiscating Gold


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The assault on gold is by no means casual. The hunt for money and the global effort to eliminate cash to be able to increase taxation is also targeting gold. All the sales pitches that gold will survive have ignored the fact that government is well aware of gold and people using it to store wealth. China has imposed gold import restrictions, and India’s demonetization and gold confiscations have provided a blueprint for other government to follow, and the success to them is that there have not been riots and bloodshed in the streets of India like has unfolded in Venezuela. Now the European Commission has also proposed tightening controls on cash and have included precious metals transfers from outside the EU. They are using terrorism as the excuse that they need to shut down that route of funding of militant attacks on the continent. It was Winston Churchill who said – “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Indeed, our politicians in Europe remember those words and they are indeed not allowing any terrorist attack in Europe go to waste. The USA followed this advice with 911, which they took part in, creating TSA, Homeland Security, and began seizing everyone’s phone calls as in the book 1984. The EU politicians are not letting any terrorist attack go to waste and see each event as an opportunity to do things they could not do before. Gold is rapidly becoming the target of confiscation in Europe following the Berlin Christmas attack.

Reuters reported that after the attack on a Christmas market in Berlin, where 12 people were killed as a truck plunged into a crowd, was such an opportunity that could not go to waste so the European Commission proposed to tighten capital controls – specifically cash and precious metals – into and out of Europe.

Under the new European proposals, customs officials in European Union will now expand checks on cash, precious metals, and even prepaid payment cards sent by mail or in freight shipments. The hut for money is rapidly expanding. Agents will now be able to seize cash or precious metals carried by individuals entering the EU even below the €10,000 euros threshold. Cash has already been required to be declared at customs when entering the EU and in the USA it is $10,000. The new European rules would allow authorities to seize money below that threshold “where there are suspicions of criminal activity.”

A friend in Germany tried to send €200 as a gift to their father and the government demanded they prove where the money came from. EU officials are claiming recent attacks in Europe were carried out with limited funds. Indeed, are we talking about buying food while hijacking a truck, which cost nothing?

The plan included virtual currencies such as bitcoin, and prepaid cards, which French authorities said were used to fund the bombings. Under this new proposal, even holders of prepaid cards would have to show some form of identity when they make payments of €150 euros or more. The question becomes why include precious metals? You cannot pay for a room with gold coins or but food. You have to convert that to cash and when you do all sales or purchases are already reported.

This is the covert hunt for money. We will be providing a detailed report on additional issues that are arising which will significantly impact your investment strategy moving forward. Will all these restrictions send even more money fleeing to the United States

KOMMONSENTSJANE – THE NEW YORK TIMES THINKS TRUMP “STOLE” A SUPREME COURT SEAT – BECAUSE THEY ARE STUPID


Anyone the reads the NYT other than to publish how devoid of mental capacity the Times is, is an idiot!

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The New York Times Thinks Trump ‘Stole’ A Supreme Court Seat. Because They’re Stupid.

By: Ben Shapiro,

December 26, 2016

One of the great benefits of Hillary Clinton’s shocking election loss is the full-scale meltdown of the American left. Leading the pack: The New York Times, which had set up a prayer shrine in the editorial board conference room. Now, they’ve been relegated to whining about how the Republican Senate wouldn’t approve Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nomination to replace the late Antonin Scalia.

Get out the world’s tiniest violin.

Shed a single tear.

The New York Times is in mourning:
No matter how it plays out, Americans must remember one thing above all: The person who gets confirmed will sit in a stolen seat. It was stolen from Barack Obama, a twice-elected president who fulfilled his constitutional duty more than nine months ago by nominating Merrick Garland, a highly qualified…

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Drug Companies Flooded W.V. with more than 780 Million Pain Pills


Source: Natural Society, by Julie Fidler The United States is embroiled in a fierce battle against opioid abuse. In 2014, there was a 3.4-fold increase in the number of opioid overdose deaths in Am…

Source: Drug Companies Flooded W.V. with more than 780 Million Pain Pills

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