Brat: Nobel Laureates Expose Their Political Bias In Statement On Economy


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 26, 2024 at 08:20 pm EST

The Japanese Yen – 397 by 2032?


Posted originally on Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

IBUSJY T 6 26 24

QUESTION: Marty, they called you Mr. Yen for good reason. I remember in 1998 when you sold $1 billion at 14700 on an MIT order (Market if Touched), and the dollar declined for 11 years thereafter. That 147 was your Yearly Bullish Reversal, which we blew through here in 2024, also on schedule. I remember that trade very well, and you said that if 147 were exceeded, the next stop would be 262. OK. We just hit 161. Are those forecasts from back then still valid?

TP

REPLY: Wow. You are still at it. My hat is off to you, as they say. Oh, I remember that trade very well. It was during the liquidity crisis with the collapse of Russia. Here is the Yen chart back to 1900. The primary resistance stands at the 210-212 level. We need 2024 to close above that Yearly Bullish Reversal at 147. Then, resistance will be below the Yearly Bullish Reversal of 262. It will form between 246 and 260. It appears to be a war on the horizon. Once the 262 level is exceeded, this points to 363, followed by 397 by the time we reach 2032.

Japan – China – US Debt


Posted Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Japan remains the largest holder of the US as of May 2024, holding $1.186 trillion in Treasury securities and 14.7% of all foreign-owned US debt. China has been selling off its holdings in an urgent effort to distance itself from the US, but is currently the second-largest holder of US debt, carrying about $767.4 billion as of March 2024. I largely speak about China’s debt holdings because they were the top buyer of US debt before the political landscape changed.

Within a mere four years, China sold off 30% of its holdings or over $250 billion in US debt. This assisted the yuan in general as China was able to use the exchange rate to buy yuan when the currency depreciated. China seemed to be assisting Trump years ago in lowering the dollar to ease trade frictions. That is no longer the case here as the United States enacted economic warfare against Russia, pushing it off SWIFT, confiscating private assets, and implementing countless sanctions. The United States did all of this to Russia without officially being at war. Who is to say the same would not happen to China under the excuse of Taiwan?

Negative interest rates were a huge mistake for Japan. Unlike China, Japan aims to strengthen ties with the US. The nation drastically increased its holdings of US debt in 2023. US bonds seem safter than the low-yield returns provided domestically in Japan. Funds are moving out of Japan and into the US. They see US debt as relatively safe as they have a strong alliance with the US and the yield are simply higher.

The advice I used to provide to Japan to help reduce the trade friction was to buy gold in New York and sell it in London. The trade numbers could care less about the product actually being exported. It will reduce the trade deficit and make US exports appear to rise. It is just an accounting ploy. Likewise, the booming exports of China were being manipulated by Chinese companies borrowing dollars in Hong Kong and then bringing that money into China and collecting three times that cost in interest. Headlines are always made on the numbers without understanding the accounting.

I received the question of why I speak about China’s purchases and not Japan’s. Again, I speak primarily of China’s offloading of US debt because that is a larger issue. China has not slowed its pace of offloading US Treasuries and this becomes a problem as the debt crisis will come to a head when there is simply no one willing or able to buy US government debt. The Fed desperately needed China’s participation as its plan was to roll over its debts perpetually. They simply cannot pay off $34+ trillion and counting. Japan and the UK cannot compensate for the loss of Chinese purchases.

The 10 Bn Euro Paris Olympics Disaster


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

 


The French are outraged by the amount of money their government has spent on the 2024 Paris Olympics. The government has already spent 9 billion euros on the games, but costs continue to grow daily, and it is now estimated that it will cost France at least 10 billion euros to host the games. There have been countless mishaps when building arenas that have multiplied costs. Parisians know that their city cannot hold the estimated 15 million visitors. Macron believes he is royalty, and hosting the Olympics has always been about boasting rights as it never results in a profit for the hosting country.

Emmanuel Macron had the audacity to announce that open water games would be held in the Seine River, which is brown, unsanitary, and completely contaminated by sewage. Macron said that he and the mayor of Paris would take a swim in the Seine on June 23 to show the world that it is not a floating water of waste. Creative protestors, the French decided to show their disgust by collectively pooping in the river on the day the president was set to swim. Websites were constructed to tell people in neighboring cities precisely when to poop in the river so that it would reach Macron in time for his swim. The river was still utterly polluted on June 23, and Macron conveniently announced that he would delay his swim until after the July election.

There is no plan B for hosting the outdoor swimming events and this puts the world’s top athletes at risk as entering those waters is a complete health hazard. There have been countless failures so far and the budget for these games is outrageous. The government spent 188 million euros building the new Olympic Aquatics Centre in the Saint-Denis neighborhood of Paris when the budget was only 70 million euros. The most appalling aspect is that even after spending far beyond the budget, there was a miscalculation in building the venue and it is too small to host most of the swimming events. This has not prevented politicians from using the wasted tax money as a photo opportunity.

The initial budget for the Olympics was proposed in 2017, and yes inflationary issues are partly to blame for the obscene faults in the budget. Yet every Olympic committee is raising its costs. The Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games, for example said they need to raise costs by at least 10% for the Olympic Village and security.

The final cost of the Olympic games will not be known until 2025. It is simply propaganda to believe that the Olympic games will benefit the people of France in any way, as the costs involved will exceed revenue. Macron, per usual, is only interested in promoting his own image and legacy and has no regard for the welfare of his own people.

Did Real Estate Peak with the ECM in May 2024?


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Shiller_U.S._National_Home_Price_Index 6 24 24

COMMENT: Marty, you are by far the greatest long-term forecaster ever. I worked on the floor in 2007 when the market crashed on the exact day of your ECM. Everyone called it Armstrong’s Revenge. That was the very day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index for 2007. I know you say the short term is noise, and you are not known for short-term day-to-day forecasts, which you avoid. I put my house up for sale and just sold it based on your May 3rd post where you said, “Home prices in the US are near all-time highs. ” The realtor told me that sales have started to decline, and I sold the high.

Amazing.

Thank you

Mike

TIME to Buy Time to Sell

REPLY: There is always a time to buy and a time to sell. The short-term is just noise. If the Dow or Gold rallies for two weeks and then declines, that does not alter the long-term course until we have reached a turning point. But people want to see you as a forecaster daily, which is nonsense. The more someone trades, the lower their performance, and the risks increase exponentially.  I have done the long-term because we were the largest institutional adviser. They are not day traders.

Case Shiller 20 City
ECM Wave 2002 2011 R

Yes, the 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave. With the prospect of war on the horizon, people will contract in their spending because of uncertainty.

ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi

We have gone through a period of a boom, but with war on the horizon, people will pull back on their spending, and we will generally enter a recession from May 2024 into August 2028. The shift from the Blue to the Red states is still occurring. So, real estate in the blue states will fall in price rapidly. The decline will vary from place to place.

Now we should enter a BUYER’S market whereas from 2020-2024 was a SELLER’S Market.

One Killed, One Seriously Injured – Hungarian President Viktor Orban Motorcade Crash in Germany


Posted originally on the CTH on June 25, 2024 | Sundance

Hungarian President Viktor Orban is not liked by NATO and Western leaders for his opposition to the war in Ukraine. Hungary just took over as rotating lead of presidency of the EU. Germany is the largest nation in the EU and vehemently opposed to the Orban peace initiative.

President Orban was traveling to the airport in Germany, when suddenly a car made an unexpected turn into his motorcade. One motorcycle officer was killed, another seriously injured. Viktor Orban is unharmed. Samantha Power and William Burns shout, “VERDAMMT!

GERMANY – […] The crash took place at around 11.15am in the district of Degerloch in Stuttgart, Germany, when the Hungarian leader was being escorted to the airport.

[…] The Stuttgart traffic police motorcycle squad were escorting the Hungarian president to Stuttgart Airport on Löffelstrasse.

However, a woman, 69, driving a BMW reportedly drove through an intersection that had been closed off by the police for Orban’s convoy at Albplatz.

She is understood to have turned left at the Rubensstrasse intersection and hit the motorcycle of a 61-year-old male officer who was accompanying Orban’s car.

Due to the force of the impact, the police vehicle was thrown onto the motorcycle of a 27-year-old colleague who had used his motor to block the intersection for traffic.

Both police officers were seriously injured in the collision and were rushed to hospital, reports Bild.

But despite the best efforts of paramedics, the 61-year-old cop died of his injuries shortly afterwards.

The public prosecutor’s office and the Stuttgart police announced the horror collision in a statement. (link)

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious.

WarRoom Battleground: The Lies Of Think Tanks, Pentagon, And The Deep State-6/21/2024


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 23, 2024 at 08:30 pm EST

Canada’s Population Explodes Surpassing 41 Million


Posted originally on Jun 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Canada’s population has surpassed 41 million, but it is not due to new births. Statistics Canada declared that the population rose 0.6% or 242,673 people since last quarter, standing at 41,012.563 as of April 2024. The nation rose by 1.27 from 2022 to 2023 or a 3.2%. . Nearly all population growth (99.3%; 240,955 people) were solely attributed to migrants arriving in Canada.

“In 2023, the vast majority (97.6%) of Canada’s population growth came from international migration (both permanent and temporary immigration) and the remaining portion (2.4%) came from natural increase,” StatCan said in a statement. “This was the second straight year that temporary immigration drove population growth and the third year in a row with a net increase of NPRs (non-permanent residents),” it said. The number of new arrivals is increasing in 2024 at a rapid pace, far too rapid for the economy to maintain.

Now, government agencies claim that Canada’s population requires “temporary immigration” for labor and the population has grown by 100,000 migrants every quarter since Q3 2021. Canada’s unemployment rate rose in April to 6.1% from 6.1% in March, with the rate at only 5.3% in April 2023. The migrants are not filling in-demand labor roles. As with the US and every western country that permitted open borders, these people are living off of the tax payers and not producing anything. Trudeau totes that skilled labor is needed throughout Canada but the people coming in are not filling those roles either.

Trudeau has permitted an influx of migrants throughout the past six years at a pace that has only accelerated. Every recent poll has found that Canadians are concerned about the record number of new arrivals. The government has stated it would begin to cap immigration but that only applies to those entering legally.

Sentiment toward immigration has turned sour. Canadians are worried about inflation and the housing crisis. A Leger poll learned that 75% of Canadians felt that immigration was fueling the housing crisis. The Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute surveyed Canadians in January 2023 and 21% reported that there were too many migrants. They conducted the same poll a year later and the number of concerned legal residents more than doubled to 50%. An Abacus Data survey found that 67% of Canadians believed the rate of immigration was far too high. Trudeau’s popularity is declining as Canadian society and culture begin to shift. The US is not the only country relying on an influx of immigrants and war to alter elections.

Venice – The Longest Republic but it had its Dark Side


Posted Jun 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Venice St Mark Square

COMMENT: Marty,

Hope you’re doing well.

I just returned from a trip to Venice, Italy, and a local tour guide informed me of the following about the Venetian Republic, some of which is similar and some of which is slightly different than what you’ve mentioned in the past:

1.  it was the longest-lasting republic in the history of the world, lasting about 1100 years, abolished only by Napoleon’s threat, to whom it surrendered

2. its longevity was attributed to its ability to keep corruption in check, which it did by several methods:  its senators were given one term, and were chosen by randomly drawing names out of a bowl, which contained the names of all the eligible citizens of Venice; in summary, about 200 of those randomly drawn names were chosen to be in a pool of candidates, of which only about 50 of those were chosen to be senators for that term, based on a selection interview.

3.  the Venetian mouth, which you have represented in the past, was only used to submit names of people who were committing crimes against the republic, and any accusation had to be signed by two witnesses;  if the accusation was false, then the accusers would/could be put to death.

I found #2 above particularly interesting, as it would be akin to the US randomly selecting names out of a phone book to be representatives or senators. . .

Take care,

L

Augustus AV Aureus 1st issue

REPLY: Yes, there has always been a rivalry as to the longest-lasting Republic claimed by Venice. That is true only because Rome from 750 BC to 476AD went through being ruled at first by kings, then a republic in 509 BC, and Imperial Rome began eclectically with Augustud being granted that title in 27 BC.

Mouth of Truth

The Mouth of Truth began with anonymous tips, which were obviously abused and eventually reformed. Venice had its corruption. The Dige was for life, not one year. After he died, his estate was seized and investigated, and any uncovered corruption saw whatever assets were given to the Treasury.

Venice Bridge of Sorrows

I’m sure you also saw the famous “Bridge of Sighs” because once convicted of any crime, you crossed that bridge and went directly from the court to the prison or from their dungeon (from the torture room) to the court. Venice did not turn the other cheek.

Venetian Fleet

What he did not tell you is that Venice was a quasi-fascist State insofar as the entire fleet was owned by the government, but there was some private ownership.

Crusader Take Constantinople seige Eugene_Ferdinand_Victor_Delacroix

I’m unsure if he also told you that the Venetians were notorious pirates. Venice engaged in trade beginning from the late 8th Century, but this was the slave trade.  During this very early period, Venice was engaged in the selling of slaves to the Arabs from the Carolingian-Sclaveian wars. The name of the “Slavic” people means servitude or slave. In the pactum Lotharii of 840 between Venice and the Carolingian Empire, Venice was finally forced to reform and promised not to buy Christian slaves in the Empire and not to sell Christian slaves to Muslims.

Venice was also at the head of the Fourth Crusade, but instead of going after the Muslims, they laid siege to and conquered Byzantium. This is a painting of the “Latin Rulers” conquering Byzantium.

Latin Rulers titles

The Venetians even issued Their versions of Byzantine coins between 1204 and 1261AD.

Enrico Dandolo c. 1107–1205

Enrico Dandolo (c. 1107–1205) was the doge of Venice from 1192 until his death. He is remembered for his corruption and shrewdness. He is the Doge who killed Christians in the Sack of Constantinople. Dandolo died in 1205 in Constantinople and was buried at the Hagia Sophia, which today is the Blue Mosque.

Venice four horses

You probably visited the Cathedral in St Mark’s Square. The Turks stole St Mark’s body from Egypt, and the four horses you see stood on a chariot of Constantine the Great in Byzantium. They also liberated them.

Venetian Empire Coinage
Indian Imitation AV Zecchino 18th century

Nevertheless, Venice became a powerful maritime power. Thanks to its bankers, its coinage became the dominant coinage and was only eclipsed by Florence. The fact that its coinage was recognized in international trade much like the US dollar is today confirms that in India, after imitating Roman coins for hundreds of years, they imitated Venetian gold ducats as well.

VenetianDebt 4

We have an extensive database, and the debt crisis of Venice, which nobody seems to want to talk about, is included within it. The Venetian gold ducat, meaning the Duke’s coin, was probably the most famous, thanks to the commercial and maritime power of the Venetian Republic. However, before 1284, Venice used the coinage of Byzantium in trade – namely the Byzantine gold hyperpyra. The Venetians imported goods from the East and sold them at a profit north of the Alps.

Michael VIII AV Hyperpyron


Byzantine emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos (1261-1282) backed the revolt of the Sicilian Vespers in 1282, and the cost of that war forced him to debase the hyperpyron. This was just one more in a series of debasements, and the Great Council of Venice responded with its own coin of pure gold in 1284. The practice of debasement has preceded him.

1092 Byzantine Monetary Reform 1024x687

The major debasement of the Byzantine coinage had begun under Constantine IX Monomachos (1042-1055), with the purity of the gold coinage falling from 24 carats to 18 carats during his reign. In 1041, the year before he came to the throne, the  Histamenon Nomisma had a weight of about 3.96 grams with a gold content of about 90%. The very first year in 1042, the gold content was reduced to 87.5%. Constantine IX did not take his responsibilities as Emperor very seriously. He seems to have assumed that the wealth of the nation was his to spend as he desired.  He squandered money profoundly and this appears to have been the initial reason for the beginning of the debasement. The gold nomisma fell to 87%.

Minted in Venice from 1284 onwards, the Ducat competed with the florin, the reference currency of Florence, minted since 1252, which until then had dominated financial exchanges in Europe. It weighed 3,545 grams and was 98.6% fine gold, a very high purity for the time.

BancoGiro Venice

We saw banking start to rise in Northern Italy, especially during the 13th century. In 1282, the Republic of Venice organized most public finance activities under its Grain Office, which subsequently did a banking business on behalf of the government. It was the start of what we might call a Treasury today. It accepted time deposits from wealthy citizens as well as foreigners. Like the US Treasury, the Grain Office advanced loans to government departments and private enterprises. It was not until 1587 that Venice established a public bank on the Rialto. It would take until 1619 before it created a public Giro Bank, where funds were paid between accounts. That is what Giro means. I can write you a check, and we both have accounts at the same bank. Venice was too attached to trade, and the government sought to monopolize it. Venice clearly did not rival Genoa or Florence in capital management matters because it was essentially a quasi-fascist state where the government sought to engage in trade business, and thus, entrepreneurship was lacking. Interestingly, the city of Venice won an exclusion from the Sin of Usury and was allowed to trade with the Arabs, including the slave trade.

Venice was not a Papal State, and it often opposed the Vatican. Venice, Tuscany, and Modena formed an antipapal league to protect Parma, and France intervened. Peace was concluded in Venice on March 31st, 1644, and Pope Urban died soon afterward.

kleroterion Athenian Vote

So, while Venice is the longest Republic, the practice of one term of office and out was prevalent in Nothern Italy with republics in general. As far as the random selection of a representative, this was taken from Athens. Here is a Kleroterion where names would be selected at random to be a representative in government and even to serve on a jury.

Greek Philosophers

This is actually the root of why the three major Athenian philosophers were anti-democratic. The real objection was that these people were selected randomly and lacked experience, intellect, or any skill to be in charge of anything, no less the welfare of the people.

Hearts of Oak: The Week According to… Leilani Dowding


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 22, 2024 at 09:00 pm EST