ECM & the Cycle Inversion?


The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share market has just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.

The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.

When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.

When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.

California tackles THE BIG ISSUES


Published on Aug 5, 2018

The electrical grid is inadequate. The roads are third-world. Public sector unions have bankrupted what was once the richest state in the nation. Thank God Cali has got its priorities straight

Is SO2 the Real Threat – not CO2?


It has snowed in Alberta, Canada on August 1st in the dead of summer. Such strange events like this have not been common. Europe is burning from heat when buildings do not even have air conditioning because they never needed it. The concern that we are headed into a volcanic weather event really needs our attention. Volcanos emit C02, but they are a major source of something far worse – SO2. We have all heard of the London Fog. However, in 1952, some 4,000 people in Britain died from breathing in the fog.

The London Fog of 1952 resulted from burning coal excessively because it was a bitterly cold winter. This produced sulfur dioxide in the lower atmosphere, which may have reached 7 times normal levels. This became the perfect storm. The air was stagnant and there no real wind. This combined with high humidity to create a very dense fog. Once the sulfur dioxide was trapped by the fog combining with the high humidity of water vapor, this deadly combination produced sulfuric acid, which many call today acid rain. Despite all the claims of CO2, it is really SO2 that can become lethal.

We have learned about SO2 and have been reducing human emissions since the London Fog of 1952. Despite the constant focus of cars and CO2, it is Power plants and motor vehicles that burn sulfur-containing fuels, especially diesel, that create SO2. It is the Sulfur dioxide that can react in the atmosphere to form fine particles of acrid rain that pose the largest health risks to the atmosphere. CO2 does not have the same effect. This is what the major movement has been for clean air – reducing SO2.

Volcanos emit a lot of Sulfur dioxide (SO2) which smells like rotten eggs. Humans also contribute by burning coal and other fossil fuels which are the largest source of sulfur dioxide from human activities. However, volcanoes and forest fires are THE major natural contributors. What is important to understand is that sulfur dioxide is a pollutant that does impact the climate. Once SO2 is in the atmosphere, it can easily form sulfate ions. These are negatively charged particles made of up of sulfur and oxygen atoms. Since they are negatively charged, sulfate ions combine with water vapor in the atmosphere and then form small droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4). You may hear of this as acid rain. CO2 does not act in this manner.

When a volcano erupts. we then see huge amounts of sulfur dioxide are released into the stratosphere which will then convert to sulfates. There is a qualification needed here because sulfates formed at lower altitudes are removed from the atmosphere in just a few weeks through settling and precipitation. However, the SO2 emission from volcanos reach the upper bounds of the atmosphere and create aerosols that are mainly tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that then stay in the atmosphere for about two years. These SO2 droplets reflect incoming solar radiation back into space yet absorb both incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. The net result, is simply that SO2 reduces the amount of energy reaching the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Hence, we get global cooling of the lower atmosphere and Earth’s surface.

Consequently, it is the volcanic eruptions are of considerable impact on global climate and are a proven fact rather than theory as is the case with CO2. Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a cooling trend lasted through 1993. This was attributed to the sulfuric acid aerosols that persisted in the stratosphere. Historically, there was a global cooling which followed the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The worst such event was the “Year without a summer” which followed the eruption of Tambora in 1815.

The other school of thought has been where many scientists believe that the continuous emission of sulfates would counter any greenhouse gas theory of CO2. As volcanos tend to erupt when the energy output of the sun declines as has been taking place since 2015, we are experiencing uneven concentrations of sulfates around the world. This may be a major issue if turning places that are normally warm to cold and cold to warm. The problem with SO2 is that it remains in the atmosphere much longer and hence the continued trend of erupting volcanos can seriously alter the climate for even more than a decade ahead.

Understanding The Dollar Strength


 

It is fascinating to watch how the bias in people just ensures not just that a sucker is born every minute to replace the one that wises-up, but there are suckers who never learn from experience and cling to their ideas no matter how much it costs them. The U.S. dollar has been climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s. But the strength in the dollar is more than just interest rates. It is the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say – US – Europe – Asia.

The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates a couple more times by year end which may attract more foreign capital into the U.S. dollar with monetary policy remaining loose to very insane in Europe and Japan. We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates explode exponentially. However, their policy of austerity has really oppressed the Greek economy and now they have their eyes set on Italy which will more likely create a revolution before the Italian accept going the way of Greeks – quietly into the night.

In Japan, there to they have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? The Bank of Japan has reduced debt purchases for a third time in June 2018, taking advantage of the recent stability in bond yields and the yen. At least Japan is reducing its purchases whereas the ECB talks a good game, but cannot actually do anything. The attempt to force austerity by the EU upon southern Europe is tearing the system apart.

 

 

The dollar bottomed in February 2018. It has yet to elect a Monthly Bullish Reversal. Trump has been unusually vocal about the dollar, unlike most Presidents, following more in the footsteps of Treasury officials. Trump has publicly been criticizing the dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar especially when we still have insanity in Europe economically and Japan still in never-never-land.

In a CNBC television interview, Trump said he was concerned about the potential impact of a stronger dollar on American exports. He also broke tradition by criticizing Federal Reserve policy on raising interest rates, saying it takes away from the United States’ “big competitive edge”. Trump has had no problem with deficit spending hoping it would reduce the dollar to support trade and therefore jobs. While investors and traders have been concerned about the spending, they have been forced to attribute some of the gains to the Trump administration’s tax cuts which are bringing capital home. On the other hand, they see the tax cuts as widening the fiscal deficit, and that they expect leads to borrowing more on the government’s part. Then Trump’s imposition of import tariffs against China, Europe, Mexico and Canada, they generally think will contribute to inflation. But they fail to grasp that Trump is using Tariffs to force a better trade deal.

So hang on to your hat. The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from 1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!

42,000-year-old worms revived from Siberian permafrost


Well, it looks like you can’t just freeze politicians and end their reign of terror. It turns out, they might still be thawed out 42,000 years later beginning again. The latest biology news was reported in Germany in grenzwissenschaft-aktuell.de. A 42,000-year-old soil sample from Siberian permafrost contained nematodes. It was thawed and the soil contained worms which were brought back to life. This amazing event set the biology record for the period of time over which higher organisms can survive in cryogenic sleep. They reported that the worms began to move within a few weeks at 20 degrees Celsius in the Moscow laboratories and began to eat food.

There are two species of worm that have been discovered. Panagrolaimus nematodes have been revived which date back 32,000 years and were located at about 3.0 meters down. The Plectus worms were discovered at an age of 42,000 years only 3.5 meters deep. Therefore, those who thought Global Cooling might freeze politicians suddenly as took place in Siberia had better reconsider their dreams. They just might wake up on the next cycle and begin the chaos all over again

Is the Climate Change Preparation for the Pole Shift?


 

A reader sent this is where ice storms are happening daily this summer in Calgary, Canada. In Bavaria, where I am currently, it is the hottest in 200 years. The temperature is in the 90s (32c) and hotels, restaurants do not have air conditioning because it never gets hot here. Then in Ukraine, which it is typically in the 90s for the summer, they are experiencing the coldest summer with temperatures in the 70s.

In Greenland, birds migrate there for the summer to create offspring. This year, summer never came. Indeed, crops are failing around the world from either too much heat or too much cold. It appears that where it is normally hot, the climate is becoming cold. Where it is cold, it is becoming hot.

Many scientists are starting to wonder what is going on. It certainly is not Global Warming since that theory implies consistency. Some are wondering if this is a prelude to the climate is shifting thanks to a possible pole shift. The problem, nobody knows what this means. The last time the poles flipped was 720,000 years ago. We have no model to clearly define the end result. Will we suddenly be frozen with a spoon in our mouth at breakfast? Perhaps we are entering more than just a major Sixth Wave in the ECM. Maybe the weather is also conspiring to shift the financial capital from the West to the East.

Still, the other school of thought is pointing to volcano’s. It’s abundantly clear that there is also such a thing as volcanic weather, which historically can be highly dangerous. These astonishing changes historically also remind us that volcanic events have long affected weather systems and have even transformed the Earth’s climate dramatically. They have changed weather also by prolonged gaseous effusions. In recent times they’ve occasionally canceled out summers or triggered droughts. The major eruption of Tambora created the year without a summer where it snowed in New York City in July. Volcano-ism has disrupted the atmosphere altering our climate. For brief moments, the realization that lava flows can drive machinations in the sky makes such meteorological manifestations seem very close to magic. Heat rises and lava is about as hot as it gets. Many fear that the increase in volcanic activity is disrupting the climate that needs to be studied closely but is being ignored because you cannot tax nature.

Why Marxism Cannot Work


Published on Apr 28, 2016
Marxist Feminsm, Marriage & MGTOW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LY7No… Support my work on Patreon: http://ow.ly/3ymWFu PayPal Donations Welcome. Click here: http://goo.gl/NSdOvK Help Support My Channel. Buy Computing Forever Merchandise, Mugs, Hats, T-Shirts: http://ow.ly/3v3TWq Images in this video sourced are royalty free, creative commons, public domain from Wiki images & http://Pixabay.com Sign up to our Monthly Newsletter to receive exclusive FREE Computing Forever video and blog content: http://goo.gl/YKq7ZK SUBSCRIBE TO THIS YOUTUBE CHANNEL: https://www.youtube.com/user/LACK78 KEEP UP ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Twitter : http://twitter.com/lack78 Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/ComputingFor… Google+ : LACK78: http://goo.gl/k4gWsg Google+: Computing Forever: http://goo.gl/Q8gZpY ALL MY TECH BLOGGING NEWS CONTENT:http://computingforever.com MORE VIDEO AWESOMENESS: http://youtube.com/daveknowsstuf

Concern About Influencing Markets


QUESTION: Thank you very much for your blog and all the knowledge that you pas on.
You are well known in many circles and I would think have great influence in the inner circles and behind the curtain. Now then your computer forecasts can sway a lot of people because of that. If you were to advice in advance of a major market crash you could be accused of starting a panic or worse. So my question is would you do it or sit on it and explain later?
Retired in Canada.

AW

ANSWER: No. We have ALWAYS provided forecasting regardless of the consequences. The Computer itself is writing the analysis on over 1,000 instruments daily. Everyone knows that there is no human writing these reports. Besides that, there are those behind the curtain who want the real forecast even though it may be against them. I have been on the phone with central banks during a crisis when they have asked me does it look like they will need to intervene. So you will be surprised. Even they want the truth when it counts.

I am not doing mainstream media interviews that would ever appear as a headline that the market will crash tomorrow or something like that. ONLY is such information appears in the mainstream media does it raise a red flag.